The Election Of Donald Trump Is Already Having An Enormous Impact On The Economy

The election of Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through the U. S. economy and the U. S. financial system. Since November 8th, the Dow has hit a brand new all-time record high, the U. S. dollar has strengthened greatly, and bank stocks are way up. But not all of the economic news is good news. Unlike stocks, bonds have reacted very negatively to Trump’s election victory. The past week has been an absolute bloodbath for bond traders, and as you will see below this is going to have dramatic implications for all U. S. consumers moving forward.
Over just a two day period, more than a trillion dollars was wiped out as bond yields spiked all over the globe. As CNN has noted, this type of ‘violent reaction’ in the bond market has only happened three other times within the past ten years…
The rate on 10-year Treasury notes has surged to 2.3%, from 1.77% before the election. Last week’s spike in Treasury rates was so big, that it had only happened three times before in the last decade.
BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich called it a ‘violent reaction.’

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on November 14th, 2016.

As Venezuela’s Currency Loses 40% In One Month, Maduro Dances

The last time we updated on the value – we use the term very loosely in this case – of the Venezuela currency, the Bolivar in the black market, was at the start of November, when one US dollar purchased 1,567 bolivars in the street. Fast forward not even two full weeks later, and the Venezuela currency has now officially crossed the “nice, round number” psychological hyperinflation barrier of 2,000/USD, trading at 2,014 today, crashing by 22% since our last check, and an vomit-inducing 43% in the past month.
The exponentially-rising chart below shows what hyperinflation in a destroyed socialist economy looks like.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2016.

Is the Breakout in Copper a Sign of a Global Economic Recovery?

With the outcome of the election now clear, and the anticipated selloff on president-elect Donald Trump’s victory not materializing, Kurt Kallaus, author of ExecSpec, says to watch the commodities complex as an important leading indicator for global markets.
Massive Copper Breakout
We’ve seen PMI numbers rise sharply in October in both Europe and the U. S., and there’s been growth in industrial orders and materials prices. Because of this, some analysts believe that we may be seeing a turning point in the global economy.
One commodity that may be signaling such a turn is copper, sometimes referred to as “Doctor Copper,” which, as Investopedia puts it is “Market lingo for the base metal that is reputed to have a Ph. D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy.”

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/14/2016.

Former Goldman Banker Steven Mnuchin Recommended For Trump Treasury Secretary

Back on November 3, when it still seemed improbable to most that Trump would win the election, a trial balloon was floated by Reuters, according to which Trump campaign manager, former Goldman Sachs partner and Soros Fund management employee, was being groomed for something much larger as Donald Trump reportedly told his aides today that he wants Mnuchin to serve as his Treasury Secretary.
Fast forward to today when Trump is now president-elect, and when Bloomberg reported moments ago that the trial balloon apparently worked without much push back, and the same Steven Mnuchin has been recommended by Donald Trump’s transition team for Treasury secretary, “according to people familiar with the recommendation.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2016.

Clear And Present Danger

While the list of US money managers pivoting bullish last week on the US economy and equity markets reads like a who’s who list of hedge fund titans, the broader reflationary trend that had displayed cracks in its foundation last month (see Here), once again began to quake and break down.
The main forces at work cleaving performance within the markets were longer-term Treasury yields and the US dollar, the impacts of which were mostly absorbed by US equities – while emerging market stocks, precious metals and commodities took the full impact of a much stronger dollar and surging Treasury yields.
What’s interesting and perhaps lost or largely ignored over the short-term, is that although many strategists and managers now see an intermediate-term catalyst for US equities and a rejuvenation of inflationary forces here in the US – emerging market stocks that had significantly outperformed within the wider reflationary trend this year, now face a clear and present danger as yields break materially higher and as the dollar targets its highs from last year.
Our comparative with the 1987 breakdown in long-term Treasuries would indicate a near-term low is imminent of a first leg down within a broader ABC corrective decline. We estimate this pattern would work out to an eventual target for the 30-year Treasury bond of around 140 next year.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 14 November 2016.

Italian Bond Yields Explode To 18-Month Highs As Deutsche Sees ‘Italeave’ Odds At 60%

With TARGET2 imbalances at record highs, Italian bonds yields are exploding higher (despite Draghi’s foot on the scales) following Trump’s populist-encouraging victory just a few shorts weeks ahead of Italy’s referendum vote. The probability of reform rejection (and implicitly ‘Italeave’) is now 60%, according to Deutsche Bank, with complexity due to the country’s growth-banks-politics nexus: disappointing growth, concerns about the banking system and the rise of populist and euro-sceptic parties.
10Y BTP yields spike above 2.00% (and the spread to Bunds is at 2 year highs)…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2016.

The Next Couple Of Years Will Be The Worst Economic Period In US History – Episode 1127a

The following video was published by X22Report on Nov 14, 2016
Macy’s net income continues to decline as sales implode. Wages have not kept up with productivity. The wealth floated to the top of the 1%. The wealth gap continues to widen over time. No matter who became President the economy is collapsing and there is nothing that can be done about it. Since the economy is collapsing there is one person who has experience in bankruptcies and how to emerge from a crashed business.

Human Derivatives and Gold

The Oligarchs’ Plan to Monetize Humanity
The greed-diseased and power-obsessed Deep State oligarchs hate you for your freedom and love you for your money, and they are accelerating their plans to strip you of both. There are two things standing in their way: cash, and precious metals. The oligarchs are doing everything in their power to falsely discredit both of them in the eyes of the people. Cash and precious metals are physical manifestations of financial and human liberty. Liberty, which is indivisible, is the absolute last thing the oligarchs have in mind for us, as there is no profit in it for them. The oligarchs realize that the people are fast waking up to what is being done to them. While the Oligarchy remains an unimaginably dangerous enemy, it was wounded in the United States presidential election, is acting more erratically and illogically, and is starting to make serious mistakes. How we, the people, push forward from here will determine whether we remain free, or become slaves to the greatest Force of Evil ever known to mankind, the Deep State oligarchs.
While the above themes are not new to Inferential Analytics, the accurate and reliable forecasting method we have developed and use, the intensity with which the Deep State is pursuing its ‘dual mandate’ of expropriating private wealth and enslaving the people by deliberately impoverishing them is absolutely unprecedented. If the people lose the war that the Deep State has declared against them, their futures and those of their descendants will be destroyed. The people must not and need not lose this war. In fact, the people can defeat the Deep State by using simple tools and common sense. The problem is that the people do not realize they have the power to take down the Oligarchy, so we all must work to open their eyes and show them the force of nature they truly are. That is our mission in this article, and the ones to follow.
The post-election orgy of precious metals price destruction is an open letter from the Deep State oligarchs that they couldn’t care less about the people’s desire for fundamental change, something the people shouted from the rooftops with their votes. The oligarchs have announced that there will be no change in policy or operating procedures; it is full steam ahead for them, because they know they can loot society of trillions more dollars if they can successfully implement their plans, which are well underway and inimical to the people in the extreme.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 14 November 2016.

Precious Metals – Backwardation Profit Taking

Big News

The big news this week is that Donald Trump was elected to be the next president of the United States. Whether due to his comments about restructuring the government debt, tariffs on imported goods, or other economic concerns, many expected news of his election to push up the price of gold. They were wrong.
Every day since last Friday (November 4) has seen the price of gold falling. From a peak of over $1308, the price fell to $1227 on Friday.
There was a rally from $1269 to $1337 on the evening of election day, from 8pm to midnight in New York. This is roughly the time when election results began to trickle in and show that Trump was going to win. At the same time, the stock market tanked. S&P futures fell from 2150 to 2028, or -5.7%. Volume was off-the-charts high for US evening time.
But then what passes for normal took hold once again. The price of gold resumed its slide. The stock market recovered.
One thing is for sure. The price of gold does not go up for the reasons supposed by most gold bugs. Any more than it goes down for the reasons given by the propaganda of the paper bugs.
There is something else going on that could drive the gold price up. I refer to the new Indian policy of demonetizing larger-denomination cash (500- and 1000-rupee notes, worth $7.40 and $14.80 – i.e. not so large). So many Indians rushed out to buy gold that credible sources report a temporary 20% spike in the rupee-price of gold.
We doubt that Prime Minister Modi can force many Indian cash holders to increase their bank balances. However, he could push the marginal cash holder to increase his holdings of gold. If that proves to be durable, that could drive the price of gold up substantially. This situation with cash and gold in India needs to be watched.
The price of silver took a big dive on Friday, ending down a buck twenty. Yes a buck twenty, as in -6.4% (the low of the day was 15 cents lower).

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 14, 2016.

How Much Will Trump’s Wall Cost – and Who Will Pay?

As Trump makes his way towards the Oval Office, he’ll bring with him his many plans for change in America. Perhaps the most striking is Trump’s solution for immigration: the wall.
Today we’re asking the big question U. S. taxpayers both for and against the policy want to know:
Exactly how much will Trump’s wall cost – and who’s footing the bill?
The Cost of Being Great
Donald Trump proposed that the successful completion of this ‘big, beautiful, and powerful’ wall would cost $8 million to $12 million on Feb. 9.
When asked how he reached that estimate by MSNBC host Tamron Hall, Trump explained, ‘It’s a very simple calculation. What we’re doing is we have 2,000 miles, correct? 2,000 miles. It’s long, but not like 13,000 miles, like they have in China,’ he said.
And so is born The Great Wall of Trump.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Casey Wilson ‘ November 14, 2016.

Braveheart

The following is commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Monday, November 7, 2016.
Say what you want about the guy, like Scotsman William Wallace of Braveheart fame, Donald Trump has started ‘a movement’ of the common folk in America like no other since it’s founding. He has seized the moment with Hillary’s ‘deplorables’ – you know – America’s hard working and honest people – two things she knows nothing about. And while it’s true Trump was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, which normally would alienate him from this constituency, at the same time he knows how to talk to people, coming across as being genuine on real concerns affecting a now besieged public after eight-years of intensifying Cloward and Piven Strategy, Neoconservatism, Globslism, and general oligarchy proliferation under the Obama Administration, which will be his legacy.
We know this because the national debt has doubled, banks still run the show, and America is still blowing up everything that moves in the Middle East – and is in the process of attempting to goat Russia into a real shooting war – that could go terribly wrong.
Understandably then, it’s this lunacy that the Clinton machine intends to continue if she is elected that has empowered Trump, because the American public is waking up to the political elite’s disdain for its subjects (like in Braveheart), where it’s getting both increasingly obvious and serious these days. So again, it’s easy to understand why Trump is going ‘rock star’, a phenomenon that is going global. He’s one brave SOB that doesn’t back down from anybody or anything, which is his appeal in the hero department, again, like Wallace. And while a comparison to George Washington, and what is being deemed a second American Revolution, is perhaps more fitting from a US centric perspective, Braveheart is sexier – no? George Washington is just not sexy like The Donald.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 14 November 2016.

Gold & Silver: Light At The End Of The Tunnel

Gold and silver and the mining stocks still have tremendous YTD gains despite the highly manipulated take-down that has been orchestrated since early Wednesday morning. The smash has been executed entirely in the paper derivatives in London and NYC. De rigeur for the Central Banks.
Eric Dubin discusses why we’ve probably seen the last of the downward manipulative pressure on gold and silver:

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on November 14, 2016.

SWOT Analysis: Gold With a Trump President

Strengths
The best-performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 7.56 percent. The strength in palladium is seen as an indicator of improving manufacturing and automobile demand, since its primary use is in catalytic converters. Pollsters weren’t the only ones to get the election outcome wrong, as demonstrated by the uncertainty and volatility in the gold market this week. Hedge funds last week betted that the metal would rally for the second-straight week, and Citigroup Inc. analysts predicted that a Trump victory would push gold to $1,400, while a Clinton victory would send prices down to $1,250. However, as the results were posted early Wednesday, gold had its heaviest-ever trading day, surpassing the volume on June 24, after Britain decided to leave the European Union. Gold surged at the start of the day, and gold dealer Sharps Pixley Ltd. reported running out of bars and coins. As the day closed, gold sold off, ending the day down slightly. Gold Road Resources has entered into a project acquisition deal with Gold Fields for the Gruyere project. Gold Road has chosen the ‘best risk-adjusted path to finance Gruyere for its shareholders,’ writes RBC Capital Markets.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 14 November 2016.

Goldman Warns Of Stagflation Under “Adverse” Trump Scenario

While the market has clearly taken the Trump presidency in stride, expecting that a deluge of debt-funded fiscal stimulus will be beneficial for risk assets, and ostensibly, the US economy, one question we have posed for the past two weeks is just how viable is another debt-funded growth spurt in the longer term. And, over the weekend, this is the question that Goldman’s economists, Alec Phillips and Sven Jari Stehn, likewise asked when reviewing both the short and long-term consequences of the implementation of Trump policies.
As Goldman frames it, “President-elect Trump’s proposals, if enacted, would have significant implications for the US economic outlook over the next few years, some positive and some negative. The positive fiscal impulse from his tax reform and infrastructure proposals could provide a near-term boost to growth and, depending on the specifics, could have positive longer-run supply side effects. However, other proposals could lead to new restrictions on foreign trade and immigration, which could have negative implications for growth, particularly over the longer term. President-elect Trump must also make several Fed appointments over the next year, which raises the possibility of somewhat tighter monetary policy than under current Fed leadership.”
As a reminder, Trump’s three most important fiscal proposals are his tax reform plan, an infrastructure program, and his plan to boost defense spending. Trump’s tax reform plan would reduce the top marginal rate from 39.6% to 33%, and the corporate rate from 35% to 15%. While there is no official estimate of the tax revenue reduction associated with his proposal, estimates by the Tax Foundation suggest an average revenue reduction of 2.1% of GDP over the next ten years, or just over $400bn in 2017, with a roughly $250bn reduction in individual income taxes and another $160bn reduction in corporate income taxes. We provided a simple snapshot analysis of what Trump’s policies would mean for individual and corporate taxpayers in a previous post.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2016.

Just Charts At 3:30

I am upgrading my computer and I am going to have to spend a little time on that one, getting some software and applications that are misbehaving sorted out.
The US dollar was on another tear higher today, and so we saw some weakness in the precious metals.
The bonds, especially the longer dated ones, have been getting beaten up of late. No real surprise there as they were in something of a mispricing, or in plainer words a bubble, compliments of the Fed.
Stocks were mixed to lower, with the usual suspects showing some resilience in the SP, not so much in the NDX which is tech heavy.
This ‘flight to risk’ which we have been seeing since the election is acting heavy now, and may be coming to an end.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 14 NOVEMBER 2016.