This post was published at Peak Prosperity
With just a few hours left until the close of the last US trading session of 2017, and most of Asia already in the books, S&P futures are trading just shy of a new all time high as the dollar continued its decline ahead of the New Year holidays.
Indeed, markets were set to end 2017 in a party mood on Friday after a year in which a concerted pick-up in global growth boosted corporate profits and commodity prices, while benign inflation kept central banks from snatching away the monetary punch bowl. As a result, the MSCI world equity index rose another 0.15% as six straight weeks and now 13 straight months of gains left it at yet another all time high.
In total, world stocks haven’t had a down month in 2017, with the index rising 22% in the year adding almost $9 trillion in market cap for the year.
Putting the year in context, emerging markets led the charge with gains of 34%. Hong Kong surged 36%, South Korea was up 22% and India and Poland both rose 27% in local currency terms. Japan’s Nikkei and the S&P 500 are both ahead by almost 20%, while the Dow has risen by a quarter. In Europe, the German DAX gained nearly 14% though the UK FTSE lagged a little with a rise of 7 percent.
Craig James, chief economist at fund manager CommSec, told Reuters that of the 73 bourses it tracks globally, all but nine have recorded gains in local currency terms this year.
‘For the outlook, the key issue is whether the low growth rates of prices and wages will continue, thus prompting central banks to remain on the monetary policy sidelines,’ said James. ‘Globalization and technological change have been influential in keeping inflation low. In short, consumers can buy goods whenever they want and wherever they are.’
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Fri, 12/29/2017 –.
The first thing to go when a country is moving into economic crisis is the arts. This is intermixed with various social programs. As the economic crisis broadens, demand for taxing the rich rise. However, all this accomplishes is to cause capital to hide and hoard even more refusing to invest or spend and this then adds to the economic decline.
The BRICS were touted as the new rage in the world economy. The BRICS were even holding their own summits and they were supposed to surpass the G7, were all the forecasts. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa became known as the ‘BRIC’ nations back in 2001 which was a term coined by of course Goldman Sachs.
This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Dec 27, 2017.
The economic growth in Myanmar is now among the highest in Asia, and it’s come a long way since the 1960’s when it was considered one of the world’s most impoverished countries. It’s instructive to understand how this change took place, what some of the current economic metrics indicate, and current pressures being placed on Myanmar from the outside.
For starters, the general history of Myanmar (also known as Burma, and the reason for the two names is interesting in itself) is long and fascinating. More recently, Myanmar was conquered by Great Britain (it was actually a part of British India, which was responsible for much of the administration) in 1855, and became relatively affluent in this part of the world, primarily due to the trade of rice and oil.
However, even before British rule, Myanmar was already relatively well off due to its strategic location along important trade routes. Myanmar is located between India and China – Indian influence is still present, even today, and was resented, along with British control – and this trading activity helped offset a country based on self-sufficient agriculture and centralized control via a king.
Britain ruled Myanmar until independence in 1948, when a series of nationalization and central planning efforts created a welfare state. The results were disastrous. Rice exports fell by two-thirds in the 1950’s, along with a 96% decline in mineral exports. In order to maintain central planning efforts, the government resorted to printing money, and runaway prices resulted from this inflation of the money supply.
This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on Dec 18, 2017.
Goldman Sachs’ Sumana Manoghar, Hugo Scott-Gall, and Navreen Sandhu wax lyrical in their introduction to the 100 most interesting charts of 2017…
In this very special edition, straight from our hearts, We pro?le 100 of our best and most compelling charts. They tell the story of a changing world; and below it starts. But for now we’ll quickly run you through the major parts.
We begin with rising capex: Who is spending to defend? Is disruption overrated? Who else can Amazon upend? The potential in India? Can China’s overcapacity mend? Are people eating healthier? How do millennials spend?
We explore each of these themes and tell you how they link. We have some fun charts in here too. And surprises. Wink wink. We hope they join the thematic dots as you see them in sync, But most of all we hope that these charts make you think.
There are quotes, stats, and a crossword also in here, Plus a thematic poster to spread the holiday cheer. Let us know what you think and if anything is unclear, We’ll be back soon with more. Until then, Happy New Year.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 16, 2017.
The rationale for creating WeWork, the eco-friendly serviced workspace provider, was simple as co-founder Adam Neumann explained to the New York Daily News.
‘During the economic crises, there were these empty buildings and these people freelancing or starting companies. I knew there was a way to match the two. What separates us, though, is community.’ It wasn’t a bad idea since the company was recently valued at $20 billion. The first WeWork location was established in New York’s fashionable SoHo district (above) in 2010. Only four years later, Wikipedia notes that WeWork was the ‘fastest growing lessee of new office space in New York’. The company currently manages office space in 23 cities across the United States and in 21 other countries including China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, France, Germany and the UK.
WeWork’s growth has been little short of stratospheric, and investors have included heavyweight financial names such as JP Morgan. T. Rowe Price, Goldman, Wellington Management and Softbank. As Bloomberg reports, WeWork is about to repeat its success in New York and other cities by becoming the largest private lessee of office space in London. However, some old-school property developers are predicting that WeWork’s break-neck expansion is ill-timed.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 8, 2017.
The big four – Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google – have literally changed the face of the world economy, and are collectively responsible for creating a combined market capitalization equivalent to the GDP of India with a population the size of the Lower East Side of Manhattan.
This, according to Scott Galloway, professor of marketing at NYU Stern, founder of L2 Inc. and author of The Four: The Hidden DNA of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google, means we need to watch these four – and other potential disruptors – very closely, as they point the way toward understanding the economy as a whole and where innovation will lead us.
How Dominant Are They?
It’s easy to compare these companies to industrial powerhouses that existed at the turn of the Twentieth Century. But, if we look at them from the perspective of market share, the picture turns out a bit different.
Except for Google, which now controls 90 percent of the market for internet searches – now a larger market by dollar volume than the advertising market of any nation with the exception of the United States – Facebook, Amazon, and Apple don’t enjoy excessive market share, Galloway noted. Amazon, for example, captures around 4 percent of retail, and Apple only has 15 percent share of the phone market.
This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/21/2017.
The tax reform bill passing the US House yesterday certainly added to sentiment, after great earnings releases for markets but Asia need more help for cash today. Having opened strong all core markets then drifted and even saw the Nikkei trade negative. For the week it closes down 1.3% which has broken a two month rally. The Hang Seng performed well all day closing up around +0.6% but only off-set the decline in the Shanghai (-0.5%). India traded well following Thursday’s credit upgrade eventually adding an additional +0.7% onto yesterdays gain. All eyes are still on the DXY as we approach the weekend as just below we have the 50 Day Moving Average at 93.50. Oil has bounced following comments from potential output cuts led by OPEC.
This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Nov 17, 2017.
Yesterday’s torrid, broad-based rally looked set to continue overnight until early in the Japanese session, when the USD tumbled and dragged down with it the USDJPY, Nikkei, and US futures following a WSJ report that Robert Mueller had issued a subpoena to more than a dozen top Trump administration officials in mid October.
And as traders sit at their desks on Friday, U. S. index futures point to a lower open as European stocks fall, struggling to follow Asian equities higher as the euro strengthened at the end of a tumultuous week. Chinese stocks dropped while Indian shares and the rupee gain on Moody’s upgrade. The MSCI world equity index was up 0.1% on the day, but was heading for a 0.1% fall on the week. The dollar declined against most major peers, while Treasury yields dropped and oil rose.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index fluctuated before turning lower as much as 0.3% in brisk volumes, dropping towards the 200-DMA, although about 1% above Wednesday’s intraday low; weakness was observed in retail, mining, utilities sectors. In the past two weeks, the basic resources sector index is down 6%, oil & gas down 5.8%, autos down 4.9%, retail down 3.4%; while real estate is the only sector in green, up 0.1%. The Stoxx 600 is on track to record a weekly loss of 1.3%, adding to last week’s sell-off amid sharp rebound in euro, global equity pullback. The Euro climbed for the first time in three days after ECB President Mario Draghi said he was optimistic for wage growth in the region, although stressed the need for patience, speaking in Frankfurt. European bonds were mixed. The pound pared some of its earlier gains after comments from Brexit Secretary David Davis signaling a continued stand-off in negotiations with the European Union.
In Asia, the Nikkei 225 took its time to catch up to the WSJ report that US Special Counsel Mueller has issued a Subpoena for Russia-related documents from Trump campaign officials, although reports pointing to North Korea conducting ‘aggressive’ work on the construction of a ballistic missile submarine helped the selloff. The Japanese blue-chip index rose as much as 1.8% in early dealing, but the broad-based dollar retreat led to the index unwinding the bulk of its gains; the index finished the session up 0.2% as the yen jumped to the strongest in four-weeks. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2% with IT, healthcare and telecoms leading the way, as utilities lagged. Mainland Chinese stocks fell, with the Shanghai Comp down circa 0.5% as the PBoC’s reversel in liquidity injections (overnight net drain of 10bn yuan) did little to boost risk appetite, as Kweichou Moutai (viewed as a bellwether among Chinese blue chips) fell sharply. This left the index facing its biggest weekly loss in 3 months, while the Hang Seng rallied with IT leading the way higher. Indian stocks and the currency advanced after Moody’s Investors Service raised the nation’s credit rating.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 17, 2017.
Without growth in Western gold ETF holdings, the ‘decent but not spectacular’ demand from China and India is not strong enough to move the gold price higher. Please click here now. The SPDR (GLD-nyse) fund gold holdings currently sit at about 843 tonnes. There has been very little change in the total tonnage for several months. That’s neutral for the gold price. Governments don’t like their citizens to own much gold. Restrictions they impose (like India’s import duty as a recent example) dampen demand enough so that the price rises very slowly most of the time. Economic growth in China and India are increasing demand (the love trade) and mine supply is contracting, but the process is essentially ‘Chindian water torture’ for investors who want to see the price skyrocket like it did in the late 1970s. Investors that want ‘big action’ in the gold price need to wait patiently for the US business cycle to peak. For the price of gold to really sizzle, the business cycle needs to have aninflationary peak. That hasn’t happened since the 1970s. Many gold price analysts have used overlap charts that suggest the gold market now is akin to the 1976-1978 period. I look at fundamentals first, and charts second. From an inflationary standpoint, the US economy looks more akin to the late 1960s than the late 1970s. The winds of inflation are beginning to blow, but they won’t become a hurricane for some time. Having said that, I’ve noted that the St. Louis Fed has calculated that the QE program would have sent the US inflation rate above 30% if money velocity had been at normal levels.
This post was published at GoldSeek on 14 November 2017.
If you saw the headlines last week, you know overall global gold demand fell steeply in the third quarter of this year. But as we reported, there was a lot of good news for gold buried beneath the gloomy headlines.
Slumping Q3 gold demand in India was a big driver in the overall global decline, but even there, we see some signs of optimism. Indian gold-buying dropped off primarily due to new taxes and regulations imposed by the Indian government over the summer. There are already signs the market is adjusting
On July 1, the Indian government replaced a labyrinth of taxes with a nationwide 3% Goods & Services Tax (GST). New anti-money laundering legislation also impacted the jewelry market.
After three consecutive quarters of growth, gold demand in India fell 24% year-on-year in Q3 to 146 tonnes compared with 192.8 tonnes in Q3 2016. The drop in jewelry demand was most significant, likely a byproduct of the new taxes and regulations. Jewelry demand fell by 25% to 115 tons in the third quarter compared to 152.7 tons in the previous year.
This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 13, 2017.
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, 0.41 percent. CenterraGold is set to buy Aurico Metals for $1.80 per cash share for a 38-percent purchase price premium on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Centerra currently holds more than $350 million in cash and has now secured a $125 million acquisition facility, according to Bloomberg. Gold prices rose after Saudi Arabia said a recent attempted missile strike at Riyadh’s airport could be an act of war by Iran. Additionally, Turkish investors are continuing to buy gold with demand expected to reach the highest since 2013. According to Google Trends, global searches for ‘buy bitcoin’ have overtaken ‘buy gold’ demonstrating a surge in popularity of the cryptocurrency. However, the BullionVault Gold Investor Index edged slightly higher to 54.6, demonstrating the number of buyers is higher than sellers. Weaknesses
The worst performing precious metal for the week was platinum, down 0.82 percent. Due to platinum’s primary use in internal combustion engines, the metal could be among the biggest losers from electrical vehicle growth, reports Mining Review. The World Gold Council said it’s a tough quarter for gold as prices weakened in September and October. Global gold demand fell 9 percent in the third quarter as investor buying slowed and regulations in India tightened, reports Eddie van der Walt.
This post was published at GoldSeek on 13 November 2017.
– Internet shutdowns (116 in two years) show physical gold is ultimate protection
– Number of internet shutdowns increased in 2017 as 30 countries hit by shutdowns
– Democratic India experienced 54 internet shutdowns in last two years; Brazil 2
– EU country Estonia, a technologically advanced nation, experienced a shutdown
– Gallup poll shows Americans more worried about cybercrime than violent crime
– Governments use terrorist threat as reason for internet kill switch powers
– Own physical coins and bars rather than digital gold on a single platform
Editor: Mark O’Byrne
UNESCO is warning that the number of internet shutdowns is increasing worldwide. According to Statista.com when reporting data provided by digital rights platform accessnow.org, ‘internet access has been curbed 116 times in 30 countries since January 2016.’
‘Internet shutdown: An intentional disruption of Internet or electronic communications, rendering them inaccessible or effectively unusable, for a specific population or within a location, often to exert control over the flow of information.’ – Access Now.
This post was published at Gold Core on November 13, 2017.
If you’ve perused the mainstream headlines today, you’ve probably read that overall gold demand fell to an 8-year low last quarter. This was primarily due to a steep drop in inflows into gold ETFs compared to last year, and sagging jewelry demand in India after the implementation of a new tax scheme. But despite the gloomy-sounding headlines, investors are still buying physical gold.
Investment demand for physical gold grew in the third quarter by 17%, according to a report released by the World Gold Council.
Global gold bar and coin sales grew 17% year-on-year in Q3, totaling 222.3 tons. Chinese investment drove demand for physical gold. Bar and coin sales increased 57% to 64.3 tons in the Asian nation. This continues a year-long trend. So far in 2017, gold bar and coin demand in China is at the second-highest level on record.
Two themes have underpinned China’s market this year. First, from a macroeconomic perspective, fears over a potential depreciation of the yuan and the specter of rising inflation continued to hang over investors. Second, there are relatively few alternative investment opportunities. The Chinese government, for example, imposed restrictions on the real estate market earlier this year. Gold, as a globally traded asset and a natural hedge against currency weakness, has benefited.’
This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 9, 2017.
GOLD: $1283.75 UP $8.35
Silver: $17.11 UP 16 cents
Closing access prices:
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1285.90 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1277.60
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.30(premiums getting smaller)
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1285.00
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1279.00
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$6.00 PREMIUMS GETTING smaller)
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1282.25
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1280.85???
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1284..00
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1285.10 ??
For comex gold:
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 7 NOTICE(S) FOR 700 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 973 FOR 97,300 OZ (3.026TONNES)
1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 864 for 4,320,000 oz
Bitcoin: BID $7481 OFFER /$7505 UP $365.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN CLOSING; BID $7319 OFFER: 7344 // UP $204.00
This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 8, 2017.
The synergistic relationship between gold and economic growth is quite healthy, and poised to become even more healthy in 2018 – 2019. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this fabulous South Korean stock market ETF chart. Big name Western money managers are finally racing to move money into Asian markets, and this is great news for both gold and global stock markets. For several years I’ve recommended that the gold community slightly reduce (but not drop) their focus on gold’s Western world fear trade and increase their focus on the Eastern stock markets and the love trade for gold. South Korea’s stock market sports 50% earnings growth and a P/E ratio of just 10! Japan’s market is also red hot, and so are the markets of China and India. US markets have risen strongly, but with anemic economic growth and nosebleed valuations. Growth is vastly stronger in Asia, but without European and US money manager participation, Asian stock markets have previously languished. This situation has changed dramatically in 2017, and 2018 should see an acceleration of this new trend. The bottom line: American markets are hot but overvalued. Asian markets are red hot but not overvalued. I own ETFs (and some individual stocks) in the ‘Big Four’ Asian markets; India, China, Japan, and Korea. I urge all Western gold bugs to ‘get with the (good) times’. The fear trade for gold will never disappear, but it’s a new era, and this new era is dominated by Asia. Investors should be very comfortable owning Asian stock markets and gold…at the same time. The bottom line: America isn’t out, but Asia is in! When times are good (and they are now very good in Asia), Asians buy more gold. Exponentially more. Chinese demand reflects this fact. It’s rising again; demand is up almost 20% over 2016, and poised to rise even more strongly in 2018.
This post was published at GoldSeek on 7 November 2017.
Higher crude oil prices are supporting gold and silver. Gold and silver have always flourished in an inflationary environment. Focus will shift to inflation. If crude oil prices continue to rise then one should use sharp dips to invest for the short term. I see a direct correlation between gold prices and crude oil prices. Trump’s South Korea visit and China visit will be closely watched. Ways to deal with North Korean nukes will affect gold and silver prices.
Rising crude oil prices can change the balance sheet of emerging markets like India. Governments will be caught between the choice of fiscal management and inflation management. Most of the emerging markets have enough reserves to withstand an energy shock. I see emerging market currency weakness, if Nymex crude oil continues to rise to $80 and consolidates at $80. Under the current scenario crude oil looks headed for $100 in the next twelve months as long as it trades over $46. Emerging market stock markets will form a medium term top and could move into a bearish phase if crude oil prices rise and consolidate around $80. As long as crude oil prices do not break $80, emerging markets are in a safe zone.
Historically crude oil prices have always zoomed under republicans. The current rise in crude oil price is an early signal of history repeating itself.
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2017 – current price $1280.10
Bullish over $1275.50 with $1291.40 and $1296.30 as price target.
Bearish below $1270.40 with $1264.60 and $1257.30 as price target.
This post was published at GoldSeek on 7 November 2017.
– German gold demand surges from 17 ton-a-year to a 100 ton-plus per year
– 6.8 Bln spent on German gold investment products in 2016, more per person than India and China
– Germans turned to gold during financial crises and ongoing euro debasement
– Evidence of latent retail demand on increased economic concerns
– ‘Gold fulfils an important long-term, wealth preservation role in German investors’ portfolios’
Editor: Mark O’Byrne
India and China often grab the headlines as the world’s largest buyers of gold. In 2016 this was not the case.
When measured on a per capita basis it is Germany that takes the impressive crown of largest gold buyer in 2016, all thanks to their investment market. Last year the country set a new personal best, ploughing as much as 6.8bn ($8 bn) into gold coins, bars and exchange-traded commodities (ETCs).
This post was published at Gold Core on November 6, 2017.
Normally winter is a good time for gold, with men buying their significant others jewelry for Christmas and lots of New Years Day marriage proposals. Here’s an overview of the dynamic from Adam Hamilton of Zeal Intelligence:
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities experience, as its mined supply remains fairly steady all year long. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying dramatically depending on the time within the calendar year.
This gold seasonality is fueled by well-known income-cycle and cultural drivers of outsized gold demand from around the world. And the biggest seasonal surge of all is just now getting underway heading into winter. As the Indian-wedding-season gold-jewelry buying that drives this metal’s big autumn rally winds down, the Western holiday season is ramping up. The holiday spirit puts everyone in the mood to spend money.
This post was published at DollarCollapse on NOVEMBER 4, 2017.
Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,
The world economy is premised on a ludicrous idea – that Asia, then India, and then Africa will continue to drive economic growth.
So as not to turn this article into a book, lets consider this idea focusing on East Asia consisting of China, Japan, North and South Korea, Taiwan, and minor others. This region consists of 1.6 billion persons or about 22% of earths inhabitants. However, since 2008, it is this region that is responsible for nearly 100% of the global increase in demand for oil (best proxy available for true economic growth) and having primarily driven global economic growth. My point in this article is that the growth in this region is entirely a credit driven supernova against collapsing populations which will never be able to fill the 100+ million newly added apartments or pay back the debt incurred to achieve the “growth”. Contrarily, from an investor standpoint, this weakness is the green light to “invest” as aggressively as possible because as long as central banks exist, they have your back.
Consider, since 2000, China’s debt outstanding has risen something like 14x’s to 17x’s or from about $2 trillion to something between $30 to $35 trillion presently. As for Japan, who knows Japan’s true debt as Japan’s central bank is buying much or most of the debt and essentially throwing it in a black hole, never to be seen again(…monetization with a capital “M”).
Why the massive debt creation and central bank monetization? Depopulation with a capital “D”. First off, consider the collapse in fertility rates for these nations (chart below). To maintain a constant, zero growth population, the childbearing population needs to produce 2.1 children in order to replace themselves (dashed line, below). However, as the chart below shows, E. Asian nations have seen negative fertility rates for decades (Japan turning negative in ’74, S. Korea in ’83, China in ’92, and N. Korea in ’96).
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 3, 2017.