• Tag Archives Donald Trump
  • Off the Deep End

    I just looked at the charts here at 6am Pacific time. I shouldn’t be surpised… Here, have a cup of coffee. I sure needed one.
    I thought you might have friends or relatives who could use a bit of perspective–from reasonable ground that can bear scrutiny. And for this blog, I suspect this is another sermon for the choir, for most.
    In late October of 2016, I foolishly posted my reasons for voting for Trump on Facebook for all my friends & family to read. They did. And they proceeded to beat the hell out of me, or stand by and watch. No doubt most thought, ‘Don’t know what’s wrong with that boy.’ ‘He’s gone off the deep end’
    Private conversations with a few have smoothed over some differences. Others have been silent, showing civility and restraint, but still perhaps wondering what went wrong with me. ‘Civility’ of course is simply not telling others what you really think about them, choosing instead to focus on shared interests, like the weather. But going off the deep end can certainly lead the wrong direction – drowning in a dark pool of the unknown where things lurk, and long tentacles rise to wrap around your ankle and quickly pull you under. So I read the objections of my friends and relatives as a well-intentioned effort to help me back to rationality.
    Most lakes have a slope down to the deep end – and this is one of them.
    I was thirty-two years old when I started back to college in 1990 after 12 years in the electrical trade, with union membership, a solid democrat perspective on politics, and a union-inspired socialistic preference for economics. Liberal progressivism had not developed to today’s level by the time I graduated for the 3rd time ten years later. I had earned a PhD and changed careers to become a college teacher. Repulsed by the Clinton scandals and opposing the drain of our government budgets by social programs (as championed by democrats), I started voting for republicans. My socialistic views softened, giving way to a rational capitalism, although I still favor taking care of folks in a bind through job training and employment assistance. I landed a position teaching in college, earning tenure, advancing toward full professorship, beginning to publish articles in our discipline’s top journals.
    Then 2008 happenend.

    This post was published at TF Metals Report on Wednesday, June 21, 2017.


  • 100% Chance of Recession Within 7 Months?

    We asked this question one week after Trump was elected:
    ‘What does history predict for the Trump presidency?’
    The answer we furnished – based on over a century of data – was this:
    A 100% chance of recession within his first year.
    Not a 90% chance, that is. Not even a 99% chance. But a 100% chance of recession.
    That answer came by way of a certain Raoul Pal. He used to captain one of the largest hedge funds in the world.
    And to prove his case he called the unimpeachable witness of history to the stand…
    Crunching 107 years worth of data, he showed the U. S. economy enters or is in a recession every time a two-term president vacates the throne:
    Since 1910, the U. S. economy is either in recession or enters a recession within 12 months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency… effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new president.
    Obama was a two-term president – if memory serves.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 20, 2017.


  • Gold Price Slips vs. Falling Dollar as Oil Bounces, Bank of England Split Boosts ‘Brexit-Hit’ Pound

    Gold prices held near 5-week lows against a falling US Dollar on Wednesday, trading at $1243 per ounce as commodities rallied but world stock markets extended Tuesday’s retreat in New York.
    As Brent crude oil rallied $1 per barrel from yesterday’s 7-month lows near $45, that pulled the EuroStoxx 50 index of major European shares more than 1% lower.
    The British Pound meantime rallied after a split emerged amongst senior Bank of England policymakers over holding or raising UK interest rates from the current all-time record low of 0.25% with 435 billion ($550bn) of quantitative easing bond purchases.
    Check out Global Liquidity Reaching a Tipping Point
    The Euro currency also rallied against the Dollar but held 1 cent below last week’s peak, the highest level since Donald Trump won the US presidential election last November.
    The gold price for Eurozone investors fell below 1115 per ounce, near its lowest level since January.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 06/21/2017.


  • Remember When Ford ‘Cancelled’ That Plant In Mexico? Well, They’ve Just Moved It To China

    Back in January, Trump took a very public victory lap when Ford decided to scrap plans to build a $1.6 billion manufacturing facility in Mexico and invest in its Michigan facilities instead (we discussed it here: Trump Takes Victory Lap After Ford Cancels $1.6 Billion Mexican Expansion Plan As “Vote Of Confidence” In President-Elect).
    "@DanScavino: Ford to scrap Mexico plant, invest in Michigan due to Trump policies"— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2017

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • Coming Apart: The Imperial City At The Brink

    David Stockman routinely refers to President Trump as the ‘Great Disrupter’. But this is not a bad quality, he insists. Rather, it is a necessary one: Stockman argues (my paraphrasing) that Trump represents the outside force, the externality, that tips a ‘world system’ over the brink: It has to tip over the brink, because systems become too ossified, too far out on their ‘branch’ to be able to reform themselves. It does not really matter so much, whether the agency of this tipping process (President Trump in this instance), fully comprehends his pivotal role, or plays it out in an intelligent and subtle way, or in a heavy-handed, and unsubtle manner. Either serve the purpose. And that purpose is to disrupt.
    Why should disruption be somehow a ‘quality’? It is because, during a period when ‘a system’ is coming apart, (history tells us), one can reach a point at which there is no possibility of revival within the old, but still prevailing, system. An externality of some sort – maybe war, or some other calamity or a Trump – is necessary to tip the congealed system ‘over’: thus, the external intrusion can be the catalyst for (often traumatic) transformational change.
    Stockman puts it starkly: ‘the single most important thing to know about the present risk environment [he is pointing here to both the political risk as well as financial risk environment], is that it is extreme, and unprecedented. In essence, the ruling elites and their mainstream media megaphones have arrogantly decided that the 2016 [US Presidential] election was a correctible error’.
    But complacency simply is endemic: ‘The utter fragility of the latest and greatest Fed bubble could not be better proxied than in this astounding fact. To wit, during the last 5,000 trading days (20 years), the VIX (a measure of market volatility) has closed below 10 on just 11 occasions. And 7 of those have been during the last month! … That’s complacency begging to be monkey-hammered’, Stockman says.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • Trump Will Reveal Whether “Comey Tape” Exists Later This Week

    President Donald Trump has said he will make an announcement this week pertaining to his claims that there are taped recordings of conversations between himself and former FBI Director James Comey, Press Secretary Sean Spicer announced at a Tuesday press conference.
    In a response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request filed by The Wall Street Journal in May, the Secret Service said it doesn’t have any audio copies or transcripts of conversations from inside the White House.
    ***
    Trump told reporters during a press conference in the White House Rose Garden earlier this month that he’d reveal the truth about whether the rumored “Comey tape” exists in ‘the very near future.’ The president cryptically added ‘Oh, you’re going to be very disappointed when you hear the answer, don’t worry.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • The Russians Do It Again: Democrats Get Crushed In Georgia Election Despite 7x Spending Advantage

    Summary:
    After months of Democrats boasting that Georgia’s special election in the 6th district would be a startling referendum on Trump’s agenda, they just got served up another stunning defeat, as most networks have now called the race for Republican Karen Handel. In fact, rather than losing ground since Trump moved into the White House, Republicans actually performed better.
    Of course, making Handel’s win even sweeter for Republicans is the fact that Democrats outspent them by a margin of 7-to-1, with Ossoff dropping a staggering ~$22 million versus only $3 million for Handel….which is kind of reminiscent of how things played our for Hillary…oops.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • JUNE 20/RAIDS CONTINUE DUE TO THE HIGH OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AS THE BANKERS JUST CANNOT GET THOSE SILVER LEAVES TO FALL/DONALD TRUMP VERY UPSET WITH THE DEATH OF WAMBIER, WHO WAS ARRESTED AND T…

    GOLD: $1241.00 DOWN $3.20
    Silver: $16.40 DOWN 8 cent(s)
    Closing access prices:
    Gold $1243.40
    silver: $16.45
    SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1254.94 DOLLARS PER OZ
    NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1245.60
    PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.34
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1256.89
    NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1246.70
    Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$10.11
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1246.50
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1246.90
    LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1242.20
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1242.80
    For comex gold:
    JUNE/
    NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 23 NOTICE(S) FOR 2300 OZ.
    TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 2612 FOR 261,200 OZ (8.1244 TONNES)
    For silver:
    For silver:
    JUNE 3 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
    15,000 OZ/
    Total number of notices filed so far this month: 917 for 4,585,000 oz

    This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on June 20, 2017.


  • Dow Jones News Today: Stocks Flatten as Georgia Votes in Special Election

    The Dow Jones news today features stocks flattening ahead of a special election in Georgia that could signal a moment shift in Washington, just as the Trump tax agenda gets underway. Markets will continue to monitor the airline industry as manufacturers continue to unveil new products and strike deals at the Paris Air Show.
    Here are the numbers from Monday for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq:

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 20, 2017.


  • Protesters Interrupt Final Play Of Trump Assassination – “The Blood Of Steve Scalise Is On Your Hands”

    Despite the recent mass shooting in Alexandria, Va that nearly claimed the life a Majority Whip Steve Scalise, a shooting that looks to be attributable to a severe case of Trump Derangement Syndrome brought on by mass media hysteria over Trump’s presidency, “Shakespeare in the Park” carried on with their rendition of Julius Caesar which includes the assassination of President Trump. For those who have managed to avoid knowledge of this play, here is a short intro:
    ***
    But, courtesy of some conservative protesters, the last couple of assassinations of the season didn’t go as smoothly as planned. Here is video of the first interruption as a protester storms the stage yelling “Goebbels would be proud!” and “Liberal Hate Kills!”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 19, 2017.


  • Otto Warmbier Has Died, Family Blames “North Korea’s Torturous Mistreatment”, Trump Condemns “Brutal Regime… Will Handle It”

    Just days after North Korea released Otto Warmbier after holding him hostage for 17 months, his family has just reported the sad news of his passing.

    Warmbier was sentenced to 15 years in prison with hard labor in North Korea, convicted of subversion after he tearfully confessed he had tried to steal a propaganda banner.
    The University of Virginia student was held for more than 17 months and medically evacuated from North Korea last week. Doctors said he returned with severe brain damage, but it wasn’t clear what caused it.
    Family Statement:

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 19, 2017.


  • JUNE 19/USA LED COALITION SHOOTS DOWN SYRIAN MIG IN RUSSIAN AIRSPACE/RUSSIA EXTREMELY ANGRY AND ISSUES STATEMENT THAT IT WILL SHOOT DOWN ANY PLANE OVER ITS AIRSPACE: USA RESPONDS LIKEWISE/CANADA …

    GOLD: $1244.20 DOWN $9.80
    Silver: $16.48 DOWN 15 cent(s)
    Closing access prices:
    Gold $1244.20
    silver: $16.53
    SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1261.77 DOLLARS PER OZ
    NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1252.70
    PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.07
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1260.02
    NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1251.80
    Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$8.22
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1251.10
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1251.60
    LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1255.40
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1254.50
    For comex gold:
    JUNE/
    NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 45 NOTICE(S) FOR 4500 OZ.
    TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 2589 FOR 258,900 OZ (8.0528 TONNES)
    For silver:
    For silver:
    JUNE 3 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
    15,000 OZ/
    Total number of notices filed so far this month: 914 for 4,570,000 oz

    This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on June 19, 2017.


  • Mark Hanson: Housing Bubble 2.0 – The End Is Nigh?

    The incredible essay below is reproduced here with permission by Dr. Hunt for Epsilon Theory. If Dr. Hunt is even moderately accurate, which I believe he is, the housing market headwind on deck could be every bit as powerful as what hit at the end of Bubble 1.0.
    Bottom line: The Fed, during Obama, did everything in its power to surge all asset prices – stocks, bonds, real estate, collectables, et al – with no regard for its own guidance, as to when it would take its lead-foot off the accelerator. Now, under Trump, they are doing the exact opposite; looking ‘through’ all the obvious coincident and near/mid term, economic weakening trends in an effort to raise rates as quickly as possible. If, the past 8-years of a Fed in Armageddon-mode created the ‘everything bubble’ (hat-tip Wolf Richter), what will shifting monetary policy into reverse do to said asset price levels?
    Back in Bubble 1.0, the helium came out of house prices when the ‘unorthodox credit and liquidity’ was forced out of the markets all at once precipitated by the mortgage credit market implosion. Quickly, house prices ‘reattached’ to end-user, shelter-buyer employment, income, and credit fundamentals…or, to what end-user, shelter-buyers could really buy using a traditional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage, and a truthful loan application, which was about 30% less.
    What’s really the difference between the ‘unorthodox credit and liquidity’ coming out back then and coming out now from a Fed in reverse? House prices didn’t surpass their 2007 peaks because everybody is working, making more money (with the exception of those in the footprint of tech bubble 2.0). They have been goosed for years by unorthodox demand using unorthodox credit and liquidity (i.e., investors, speculators, flippers, floppers, foreigners, money launderers, options, etc etc) just like in Bubble 1.0.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 19, 2017.


  • The Fallacies Of The ‘Russia-Truthers’

    The anti-Russia hysteria – now rivaling past Red Scares with Russians hiding under every bed – has led to factual errors in press accounts and has erased standards of political fairness.
    One of the more extraordinary developments since the U. S. presidential election is that the paranoia and the grotesque disregard for facts, evidence and logic that characterized the Trump-inspired ‘birther movement’ can now be reasonably said to characterize the Left’s stance toward Donald J. Trump.
    ***
    There seems to be nothing that Trump opponents will not say and no charge, however low, they will not stoop to making as long as it furthers the goal of removing Trump from office. But, alas, the liberal case against Trump rests upon little more than widely shared fictions and unsubstantiated claims about Trump’s alleged ties to Russia.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 18, 2017.


  • The Big Collusion Narrative Keeps Melting Down

    After two days and almost six hours of high-stakes public testimony, I’m struck by the total lack of any compelling claims supporting the ‘big’ collusion narrative, that Russia conspired with Trump or Trump officials to ‘hack’ election.
    ***
    While we certainly aren’t privy to all the relevant information or all the relevant testimony, nothing that James Comey said last week or that Jeff Sessions said this week (much less any of the questions directed his way) contained so much as a meaningful hint that the Committee was on the verge of uncovering the political scandal of the century.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 18, 2017.


  • NY Fed Nowcast Downgrades Q2 GDP Growth To 1.86%, Bad Housing Start Data Latest Culprit (Slip Slidin’ Away)

    The New York Federal Reserve’s NOWCAST model for GDP growth just downgraded Q2 GDP growth to 1.86%.
    The latest culprit? The rotten housing starts data from this morning.
    And we were so hopeful about 3%+ GDP growth in February. Alas, Congress is not going along with Trump’s economic agenda.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 16, 2017.


  • Hedge Fund CIO: “Why The Hell Did The Fed Hike This Week?”

    The start of another week is upon us, which means it is time for another excerpt from the latest letter to clients by One River Asset Management CIO Eric Peters, who today writes about last week’s Fed decision, the upcoming balance sheet unwind, the lack of inflation, and “disruptive” companies which may themselves soon be disrupted.
    We will have more from today’s letter shortly, but for now here is Peters on a topic still fresh on everyone’s minds: the Fed’s latest rate hike decision, and what it really means:
    ‘You make poor people richer, or rich people poorer,’ bellowed Biggie Too, global chief strategist for one of those Too-Big to Fail affairs.
    ‘Ain’t no other way to reduce inequality.’ The Fed had just fired off another .25 caliber shot – Pop! ‘Brexit, Trump, Corbyn,’ barked Biggie. ‘They all promised to make the poor richer.’ But in no time, they’re cutting healthcare for the most vulnerable. Wage growth remains subdued. Stocks are at all-time highs. And poor people don’t own any.
    ‘So maybe those central bankers finally think it’s time to make the rich poorer.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 18, 2017.


  • How Precious Metals Can Help Protect Your Wealth from Hackers

    Could your wealth be hacked? It’s a threat most investors overlook. But they do so at their own peril.
    Learn How to Exploit the Gold Frenzy! If elections can be hacked, then so can bank and brokerage accounts, as well as any online platforms for digital currencies.
    More than five months into Donald Trump’s presidency, the ‘Russia hacked the election’ conspiracy theories still won’t go away. They’re expanding to also implicate Russian hackers for meddling in elections in France and elsewhere. The latest Russian hacking story centers on Qatar.
    According to the Guardian, ‘An investigation by the FBI has concluded that Russian hackers were responsible for sending out fake messages from the Qatari government, sparking the Gulf’s biggest diplomatic crisis in decades.’
    Choose From 10-100oz Pure Silver Trusted Bullion Dealer – Buy Now! silvergoldbull.com The Russian government has repeatedly denied involvement in these hacking campaigns. Regardless of whether the news about Russian hackers is fake, the threat of cyber-attacks is very real.
    In recent months, major e-mail providers and e-commerce sites have been hit by hackers. They often take customers’ information and try to sell it on the dark web.

    This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on June 17, 2017.