• Tag Archives Barack Obama
  • 100% Chance of Recession Within 7 Months?

    We asked this question one week after Trump was elected:
    ‘What does history predict for the Trump presidency?’
    The answer we furnished – based on over a century of data – was this:
    A 100% chance of recession within his first year.
    Not a 90% chance, that is. Not even a 99% chance. But a 100% chance of recession.
    That answer came by way of a certain Raoul Pal. He used to captain one of the largest hedge funds in the world.
    And to prove his case he called the unimpeachable witness of history to the stand…
    Crunching 107 years worth of data, he showed the U. S. economy enters or is in a recession every time a two-term president vacates the throne:
    Since 1910, the U. S. economy is either in recession or enters a recession within 12 months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency… effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new president.
    Obama was a two-term president – if memory serves.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 20, 2017.


  • Beer ATMs Threaten America’s “Waiter & Bartender” Recovery

    For 87 straight months, America’s recovery has been dominated by one ‘job’…
    Well over 5 years ago, we first dubbed the economy under Barack Obama as the “Waiter and Bartender recovery”, because while most other job categories had grown at a moderate pace at best, the growth in the category defined by the BLS as “Food Service and Drinking Workers” has been nothing short of spectacular.
    How spectacular? As the chart below shows, starting in March of 2010 and continuing through April of 2017, there have been 87 consecutive month of payroll gains for America’s waiters and bartenders, an unprecedented feat and an all time record for any job category. Putting this number in context, total job gains for the sector over the past 7 years have amounted to 2.378 million or just under 15% of the total 16.4 million in new jobs created by the US over the past 87 months.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • Mark Hanson: Housing Bubble 2.0 – The End Is Nigh?

    The incredible essay below is reproduced here with permission by Dr. Hunt for Epsilon Theory. If Dr. Hunt is even moderately accurate, which I believe he is, the housing market headwind on deck could be every bit as powerful as what hit at the end of Bubble 1.0.
    Bottom line: The Fed, during Obama, did everything in its power to surge all asset prices – stocks, bonds, real estate, collectables, et al – with no regard for its own guidance, as to when it would take its lead-foot off the accelerator. Now, under Trump, they are doing the exact opposite; looking ‘through’ all the obvious coincident and near/mid term, economic weakening trends in an effort to raise rates as quickly as possible. If, the past 8-years of a Fed in Armageddon-mode created the ‘everything bubble’ (hat-tip Wolf Richter), what will shifting monetary policy into reverse do to said asset price levels?
    Back in Bubble 1.0, the helium came out of house prices when the ‘unorthodox credit and liquidity’ was forced out of the markets all at once precipitated by the mortgage credit market implosion. Quickly, house prices ‘reattached’ to end-user, shelter-buyer employment, income, and credit fundamentals…or, to what end-user, shelter-buyers could really buy using a traditional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage, and a truthful loan application, which was about 30% less.
    What’s really the difference between the ‘unorthodox credit and liquidity’ coming out back then and coming out now from a Fed in reverse? House prices didn’t surpass their 2007 peaks because everybody is working, making more money (with the exception of those in the footprint of tech bubble 2.0). They have been goosed for years by unorthodox demand using unorthodox credit and liquidity (i.e., investors, speculators, flippers, floppers, foreigners, money launderers, options, etc etc) just like in Bubble 1.0.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 19, 2017.


  • Trump To Rewrite Obama Rules On Student Loan Foregiveness

    A few months ago we noted that 31% of college students in the U. S., or roughly 2.4 million kids, literally admitted to using student loan money to fund their binge drinking trips to Cancun and Daytona Beach for spring break. Now, while most of us who’ve had the opportunity to live in the real world, outside the comfort of mom and dad’s basement, would consider it a bad idea to borrow 10-20 year debt to take a vacation we couldn’t afford, many college students seem to think it’s a perfectly acceptable practice.
    Now, to be clear, we have no problem with making bad decisions, sometimes those are the most fun (see pic below for evidence). We only ask that the people who make the bad decisions are also the same people who get to deal with the consequences of those bad decisions.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 15, 2017.


  • Leftist Just Want to Complain But Avoid the Real Issues

    Working people are concerned about taxes and national security. In America they are screaming loud about how Obamacare raised the cost of everyone’s healthcare changing that for 300 million Americans to be concerned about 20 million who the government should have simply added to Medicaid if someone could not get insurance or were illegal aliens.
    The left is wholly unconcerned about any of that. They pound their drums yelling about social justice and equality that somehow always justifies raising taxes on the ‘rich’ but magically never lowers anyone else’s taxes. This is like handing your credit card to your child to go buy some clothes. They come back and spend twice as much as you expected. When you inquire how they could spend that much on one outfit, they respond that they saved you double that because they really wanted to buy something else. That is the logic of politicians. They saved you money because they really wanted to take a lot more.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Jun 12, 2017.


  • Trump Slams “Cowardly” Comey, Says Leaks “Far More Prevalent Than Anyone Ever Thought Possible”

    After waking up on Sunday, Trump didn’t waste much time before taking to his favorite social network, where in a series of tweets, he first took credit for the latest Dow Jones record high, while praising the record “business and economic enthusiasm”, slamming “obstructionist” Democrats who “have no message, not on economics, not on taxes, not on jobs, not on failing #Obamacare”, and lashing out at “cowardly” Comey’s ‘leaks’ will be ‘far more prevalent than anyone ever thought possible.’
    “I believe the James Comey leaks will be far more prevalent than anyone ever thought possible. Totally illegal? Very ‘cowardly!’, Trump said in a Tweet at 8:30am on Sunday.
    I believe the James Comey leaks will be far more prevalent than anyone ever thought possible. Totally illegal? Very 'cowardly!'
    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 11, 2017

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 11, 2017.


  • Trump: “Cowardly Comey” Leaks “Far More Prevalent Than Anyone Ever Thought Possible”

    After waking up on Sunday, Trump didn’t waste much time before taking to his favorite social network, where in a series of tweets, he first took credit for the latest Dow Jones record high, while praising the record “business and economic enthusiasm”, slamming “obstructionist” Democrats who “have no message, not on economics, not on taxes, not on jobs, not on failing #Obamacare”, and lashing out at “cowardly” Comey’s ‘leaks’ will be ‘far more prevalent than anyone ever thought possible.’
    “I believe the James Comey leaks will be far more prevalent than anyone ever thought possible. Totally illegal? Very ‘cowardly!’, Trump said in a Tweet at 8:30am on Sunday.
    I believe the James Comey leaks will be far more prevalent than anyone ever thought possible. Totally illegal? Very 'cowardly!'
    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 11, 2017

    … suggesting that Comey’s admission that he leaked information to the NYT is just the tip of the iceberg.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 11, 2017.


  • It’s Official, Obamacare Collapse Is Trump’s Fault – Just Ask The WA Insurance Commissioner

    Last night, Washington’s Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler sent out a press release noting that two counties in his state, Klickitat and Grays Harbor, would be left with no health insurance options in 2018. Per the press release, the ~3,330 people in those counties currently signed up on the exchange would be able to buy insurance through the state’s high-risk pool but they would lose access to taxpayer-funded subsidies.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 9, 2017.


  • From Debt Peons To Wage Slaves – Are Students A ‘Class’?

    Authored by Michael Hudson, via NakedCapitalism.com,
    Students usually don’t think of themselves as a class. They seem ‘pre-class,’ because they have not yet entered the labor force. They can only hope to become part of the middle class after they graduate. And that means becoming a wage earner – what impolitely is called the working class.
    But as soon as they take out a student debt, they become part of the economy. They are in this sense a debtor class. But to be a debtor, one needs a means to pay – and the student’s means to pay is out of the wages and salaries they may earn after they graduate. And after all, the reason most students get an education is so that they can qualify for a middle-class job.
    The middle class in America consists of the widening sector of the working class that qualifies for bank loans – not merely usurious short-term payday loans, but a lifetime of debt. So the middle class today is a debtor class.
    Shedding crocodile tears for the slow growth of U. S. employment in the post-2008 doldrums (the ‘permanent Obama economy’ in which only the banks were bailed out, not the economy), the financial class views the role industry and the economy at large as being to pay its employees enough so that they can take on an exponentially rising volume of debt. Interest and fees (late fees and penalties now yield credit card companies more than they receive in interest charges) are soaring, leaving the economy of goods and services languishing.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 2, 2017.


  • With 87 Months Of Consecutive Job Gains, This Is By Far The “Best” Job In The U.S.

    Well over 5 years ago, we first dubbed the economy under Barack Obama as the “Waiter and Bartender recovery”, because while most other job categories had grown at a moderate pace at best, the growth in the category defined by the BLS as “Food Service and Drinking Workers” has been nothing short of spectacular.
    How spectacular? As the chart below shows, starting in March of 2010 and continuing through April of 2017, there have been 87 consecutive month of payroll gains for America’s waiters and bartenders, an unprecedented feat and an all time record for any job category. Putting this number in context, total job gains for the sector over the past 7 years have amounted to 2.378 million or just under 15% of the total 16.4 million in new jobs created by the US over the past 87 months.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 2, 2017.


  • How Non-profit Organizations Saved Q1 GDP

    For years the BEA traditionally used healthcare (i.e. Obamacare) as the “plug” variable to boost GDP at time when it, well, needed boosting.
    However, now that Trump is in control, and Obamacare is on its way out one way or another, this will no longer work especially since healthcare spending is likely to significantly moderate in coming years as the GDP boosting mandatory tax that is Obamacare is repealed in some fashion over the coming quarters. And yet, in today’s GDP report personal spending was reported to nearly double, with Personal Consumption Expenditures jumping from only $9.7 BN annualized as per the first estimate, to $18.6 BN in the just released second revision, a nearly 100% increase.
    What drove this? The answer was interesting as a new “plug” category appears to have emerged: non profit organizations. As the chart below shows, while healthcare was revised sharply lower in the second revision, this was more than offset by a $11.9 billion annualized increase in expenditures of “nonprofit institutions serving households.”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 26, 2017.


  • List of Seven Troubles Assailing the US Economy as We Head into Summer

    The following is not simply a list of negative risks to the economy but a list of of serious economic conditions that are already placing drought-like pressures on the overall economy. This list doesn’t include the long-term structural problems with the economy, such as its high debt burden, but just the forces that have risen against it this year.
    First-quarter US GDP growth slowed to a stagnant 0.7% (annualized) – stagnant in that population growth alone should cause GDP to rise more than that. So, really, GDP per capita is in recession, though that is not technically how a recession is called. Moody’s just downgraded China’s credit rating for the first time in thirty years, warning of fading financial strength as economy-wide debt mounts. Moody’s attributed the growing risk to years of credit-fueled stimulus, indicating the Chinese economy has grown reliant on stimulus. China’s debt was growing at an annualized rate of $4 trillion (30% of GDP)! China’s efforts to contain stimulus bubbles are expected to inhibit its economic growth, which will bring down the global prices of commodities like iron, copper and oil with similar collateral impact in the US to what we saw last time commodities like oil crashed. The Shanghai Composite stock index has fallen about 10% in less than two months. (Recall the damage China did to global stock markets from the summer of 2015 through early 2016 as the Chinese market melted down and China had to socialize most of its own stock market to save it from utter ruin. Today the Chinese government market saviors rushed in to prop it up again.) The Federal Reserve appears to be set on lowering Fed stimulus, while it is also becoming clear that no fiscal stimulus will come out of the federal government this year. Even those working on Obamacare and the Trump Tax plan say early 2018 is the best they can now hope for. The Fed has a track record of killing recoveries by remaining headstrong on stimulus retreat once it starts down that path. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and everything investors have been banking on looks increasingly uncertain at the moment. With no fiscal rain at at time when the streams of monetary stimulus are drying up, this promises to be a dry summer. If the Republican-led house and senate become even more divided, just remember Lincoln warned, ‘A house divided against itself cannot stand.’

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 May 2017.


  • Trump the Perfect Scapegoat for When the Fed Bubbles Pop

    In his most recent Gold Videocast, Peter Schiff pointed out that Pres. Trump inherited an economic mess from Barack Obama. Even if he can manage to get his policies implemented in the midst of the political circus going on in D. C., it isn’t going to be enough to stop the downward economic spiral.
    Yes, having Donald Trump president is better than having Hillary Clinton as president. But he is not a get out of jail free card for the economy… The problem is the damage is going to hit on Donald Trump’s watch. Barack Obama got out of Dodge just in time.’
    Brandon Smith at Alt-Market.com agrees that the economy is due to take a plunge. He takes things a step further, asserting that Trump is just the scapegoat the central bankers have been waiting for. Now they can nudge up interest rates and blame the chaos caused by popping bubbles on the president specifically and Republican policies in general.

    This post was published at Schiffgold on MAY 25, 2017.


  • End of Money Seminar – June 7, 2017

    The following video was published by X22Report on May 22, 2017
    Protesters want free speech and freedom of the press as they shout to close down certain news media outlets. Kim Dot Com comes forward saying he has info on the Seth Rich murder. Duterte meets Putin to sign deals. UN calls on NK to stop firing missiles. The terrorists are now leaving certain areas of Syria because they don’t have the man power to fight. Mattis says that he is going after the terrorists. This plan is different that Obama’s, Obama was choosing the targets which allowed the IS to grow on purpose. The deep state and the central bank are going after all forms of currency, cryptocurrency, gold and silver.


  • Trump, Watergate and Gold

    Could Trump be facing his own Watergate?
    The president’s firing of FBI director James Comey in the midst of probes into the administration’s possible connections with Russia set off a political firestorm. There has even been talk of impeachment in recent weeks.
    While at this point, much of the rhetoric spinning around the Beltway is political in nature, the controversy surrounding the administration still spells trouble for Trump. Even if there is no fire burning underneath the smoke, political opponents will undoubtedly leverage the chaos to slow the administration’s agenda.
    Head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen Ole Hansen told Bloomberg that could mean a bad news for the dollar.
    It’s a political dogfight. That does mean that his ability to act as a president, and to do what he’s promised, is sharply reduced and in that lies the risk of dollar weakness.’
    Trump has struggled finding footing in the political arena since he took office. Republicans still haven’t come through on their promise to repeal and replace Obamacare. And while the administration introduced an ambitious tax reform plan to much fanfare in April, little has happened since.

    This post was published at Schiffgold on MAY 22, 2017.


  • The Tens Of Millions Of Forgotten Americans That The U.S. Economy Has Left Behind

    The evidence that the middle class in America is dying continues to mount. As you will see below, nearly half the country would be unable ‘to cover an unexpected $400 expense’, and about two-thirds of the population lives paycheck to paycheck at least part of the time. Of course the economy has not been doing that well overall in recent years. Barack Obama was the only president in all of U. S. history not to have a single year when the economy grew by at least 3 percent, and U. S. GDP growth during the first quarter of 2017 was an anemic 0.7 percent. During the Obama era, it is true that wealthy enclaves in New York, northern California and Washington D. C. did thrive, but meanwhile most of the rest of the country has been left behind.
    Today, there are approximately 205 million working age Americans, and close to half of them have no financial cushion whatsoever. In fact, a new survey conducted by the Federal Reserve has found that 44 percent of Americans do not even have enough money ‘to cover an unexpected $400 expense’…

    This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on May 21st, 2017.


  • The End of Reflation? Implications for Gold

    In the previous editions of the Market Overview, we wrote about the reflation trade. We analyzed the important signals of the uptick in economic activity and inflation all over the world, arguing that the upcoming reflation does not look encouraging for the gold bulls. However, we now see signs that reflation is weakening. What happened and what are the implications for the gold market?
    As a reminder, reflation started to attract the attention of investors at the end of 2016 and was based on two pillars: 1) Trump’s rally, i.e. rising expectations about the fiscal stimulus provided by the new administration, and 2) accelerating global inflation and economic growth. As a result, interest rates surged, while the price of gold plunged.
    The problem is that both drivers of reflation trade have weakened recently. The failure of Trump to repeal and replace Obamacare undermined markets’ confidence in quick and smooth implementation of the new administration’s pro-growth agenda. Some pundits argue that the Trumpcare’s failure is actually a good thing, because now the administration will quickly shift to the subject of tax reform. However, such a line of argument is totally wrong as it overlooks significant divisions among Republicans and the fact that healthcare reform was supposed to reduce government expenditures, enabling or at least facilitating the tax cuts. This is something we warned against in the February edition of the Market Overview: ‘the faith in Trump’s beneficial economic policies may be too optimistic.’

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 19 May 2017.


  • Obama blocked this controversial Alaskan gold mine, but Trump just gave it new life

    The Environmental Protection Agency has reached a legal settlement with a Canadian company hoping to build a massive gold, copper, and molybdenum mine in Alaska’s Bristol Bay watershed, clearing the way for the firm to apply for federal permits.
    The settlement reached late Thursday between the EPA and the Pebble Limited Partnership, a subsidiary of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd., could revive a controversial project that was effectively scuttled under the Obama administration. And it underscores how President Trump’s commitment to support mining extends far beyond coal, to gold, copper and other minerals.
    While the move does not grant immediate approval to the Pebble Mine project, which will have to undergo a federal environmental review and also clear state hurdles before any construction takes place, it reverses the agency’s 2014 determination that a large-scale mine in the area be barred because it would imperil the region’s valuable sockeye salmon fishery.
    In a statement, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt said that the agreement will not guarantee or prejudge a particular outcome, but will provide Pebble a fair process for their permit application and help steer EPA away from costly and time-consuming litigation.

    This post was published at Washington Post


  • Trump’s Decision To Terminate Comey Is Now Delaying His Economic Reform Schedule

    In JPM’s initial market comment this morning, reacting to the news of Comey firing, the bank said that “as far as the market is concerned, Comey’s dismissal saps Trump’s political capital and weakens relations w/Congress at the time when he is trying to move an ambitious pro-growth agenda through the Senate and House.” What JPM was referring to was the potential of substantial incremental delays now facing Trump’s parallel reforms, healthcare on one hand and tax reform on the other.
    Now, as Axios points out, this concern is starting to materialize when the Senate HELP Committee called off a health care markup this morning after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer asked all Democrats to be in the Senate chamber at 9:30 a.m. to protest President Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey.
    The committee said it will reschedule the meeting, where senators were set to approve a bill to reauthorize the user fees that help fund the Food and Drug Administration.
    This is likely the first of many procedural delays, which will almost certainly delay the Senate’s process on Obamacare Repeal by weeks if not months.
    Meanwhile, in a new report released overnight, Goldman’s D. C. analyst Alec Phillips remained modestly more sanguine, and laid out his latest timeline of Fiscal Signposts on the Way to Tax Reform, stating that while the pending health legislation is likely to delay progress on other aspects of fiscal policy, we nevertheless expect several developments over the coming weeks and months.
    Here are the highlights from the note:

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 10, 2017.


  • “The Crisis Has Become Pandemic” – System To Collect Defaulted Student Loans Is No Longer Functioning

    The system used by the Dept. of Education to collect on defaulted student loans came to a standstill in the last month, leaving an estimated 91,000 accounts in limbo, when the agency ordered debt collectors under contract to stop making collections on accounts.
    As Consumerist’s Ashlee Kieler reports, consumers who expected their student loan payments to be deducted from their bank accounts this month have reportedly found the funds untouched, and their calls to the companies unanswered thanks to a Department of Education’s order prohibiting the debt collection companies from working on default accounts in response to two lawsuits against the agency.
    The strange turn of events began with a lawsuit filed by two debt collection companies, who claim they were unfairly were fired by the Obama-era Education Department for poor performance. On March 29, the judge issued a temporary restraining order that prevented any new defaulted borrowers from being assigned to debt collectors and put into rehabilitation programs. Instead, the borrowers have piled up inside the department’s system, waiting.
    On April 21, the government ordered the debt collectors involved in the suit to stop work altogether on defaulted accounts: no phone calls, no withdrawals from student accounts, nothing.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 7, 2017.