• Tag Archives Commodities
  • Despite Massive Liquidity Injection, Chinese Stocks, Commodities Head For Worst Week Of Year

    The PBOC stepped up cash injections this week, suggesting authorities are trying to shore up financial markets as a selloff in bonds spreads to equities… but it is not working!
    As Bloomberg reports, the central bank has already added a net 510 billion yuan ($77 billion) via open-market operations into the financial system this week, matching the third biggest weekly injection this year.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 17, 2017.


  • China Commodities, Stocks Are Tumbling

    As we just detailed in great depth, China’s credit growth is slowing at just the wrong time – as exemplified by last night’s economic malaise and bond market weakness – and tonight we are starting to see it ripple through commodity and stock markets…
    As we noted earlier, Chinese bonds are breaking key levels as China’s credit impulse begins to weigh…
    ***
    And tonight we are seeing that deleveraging pressure filter through to equity markets…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2017.


  • Comex Gold Sees ‘Another Large Sell’ as Bullish Silver Betting Grows to 7-Week High

    COMEX gold contracts recovered a $5 drop against a weakening US Dollar in London lunchtime trade Tuesday, rising back to last week’s finish at $1275 after what analysts called another “large sell” order on the futures market.
    Commodities retreated and bond prices edged higher as world stock markets fell again.
    Germany’s Dax dropped for the fourth session running after the 19-nation Eurozone released a raft of stronger economic data, led by 2.5% annual GDP growth across the region for the third quarter of the year.
    “Speculative financial investors stopped withdrawing from gold and built up net long positions again in the week to 7 November,” says German financial group Commerzbank in a commodities note today, looking at the latest Comex gold derivatives data from US regulator the CFTC.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/14/2017.


  • Macro Plan Still on Track for Stocks, Commodities And Gold

    As I’ve been noting again, again, again, again, and again the macro backdrop is marching toward changes. I’d originally thought those changes would come about within the Q4 window and while that may still be the case, it can easily extend into the first half of 2018 based on new information and data points that have come in.
    One thing that has not changed is that stock sectors, commodities and the inflation-dependent risk ‘on’ trades and the gold sector, Treasury bonds and the risk ‘off’ trades are all keyed on the interest rate backdrop; and I am not talking about the Fed, with its measured Fed Funds increases. I am talking about long-term Treasury bond yields and yield relationships (i.e. the yield curve).
    People seem to prefer linear subjects like chart patterns, momentum indicators, Elliott Waves, fundamental stock picks or the various aspects of ‘the economy’ or the political backdrop. They want distinct, easy answers and if they can’t ascertain them themselves, they seek them out from ‘experts’. But all of that crap (and more) exists within an ecosystem called the macro market. When you get the macro right you then bore down and get investment right. That’s the ‘top down’ approach and I adhere to it like a market nerd on steroids. And with the recent decline in long-term bond yields and the end of week bounce, the preferred plan is still playing out.
    So let’s briefly update the bond market picture with respect to its implications for the stock market, commodities and gold.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 10 November 2017.


  • Global Stock Meltup Sends Nikkei To 25 Year High

    The global risk levitation continues, sending Asian stocks just shy of records, to the highest since November 2007 and Japan’s Nikkei topped 22,750 – a level last seen in 1992 – while European shares and US equity futures were mixed, and the dollar rose across the board, gains accelerating through the European session with EURUSD sumping below 1.16 shortly German industrial output shrank more than forecast, eventually dropping to the lowest point since last month’s ECB meeting. Meanwhile soaring iron-ore prices couldn’t provide relief to the Aussie as the RBA held rates unchanged as expected; Oil traded unchanged at 2.5 year highs, while TSY 10-year yields rose while the German curve bear steepened, both driven by selling from global investors.
    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index edged lower, erasing an early advance, despite earlier euphoria in stocks from Japan to Sydney, which reached fresh milestones. Disappointing reports from BMW AG and Associated British Foods Plc weighed on the European index as third-quarter earnings season continued. Earlier, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose as much as 0.3%, just shy of a 2-year high it reached last week. Maersk was among the worst performers after posting a quarterly loss, saying a cyberattack in the summer cost more than previously predicted. Spain’s IBEX 35 gains crossed back above its 200 day moving average. European bank stocks trimmed gains after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the problem of non-performing loans isn’t solved yet, though supervision has improved the resilience of the banking sector in the euro region. Draghi was speaking at a conference in Frankfurt.
    Over in Asia, equities rose to a decade high, with energy and commodities stocks leading gains as oil and metals prices rallied. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8 percent to 171.40, advancing for a second consecutive session. Oil-related shares advanced the most among sub-indexes as Inpex Corp. rose 3.7 percent and China Oilfield Services Ltd. added 4.6 percent. The MSCI EM Asia Index climbed to a fresh record. The Asia-wide gauge has risen 27 percent this year, outperforming a measure of global markets. The regional index is trading at the highest level since November 2007. Hong Kong’s equity benchmark was at its highest since December 2007 as Tencent Holdings Ltd. advanced for an eighth session. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index closed at its highest level since the financial crisis.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 7, 2017.


  • In Bizarre Warning JPMorgan Says “Beware The Shadow World” As “Speed Of Asset Rally Is Scary”

    While the Fed may still be confused by the lack of inflation, if only in the “real economy”, if not in financial assets, increasingly more analysts have realized that what the Fed has done is tantamount to blowing an roaring inflationary bubble, if largely confined to the realm of asset prices. And while we used a Goldman chart to demonstrate this divergence a little over a month ago…
    ***
    … now it’s JPMorgan’s turn to undergo the proverbial epiphany.
    In a note from JPM’s Jan Loeys, titled “Financial overheating a problem yet?”, the strategist writes that “growth-sensitive assets, such as equities, credit, cyclicals, and commodities continue to gain and outperform, keeping us comfortably in the Growth Trade. Growth prospects have been rising and accelerating over the past two months from the only slow and dispersed upgrades of the previous 12 months. By now, we are in a full-fledged and globally synchronized move up in growth optimism.” Perhaps, but there is a catch as JPM unwillingly concedes:
    The speed of these upgrades and asset price rallies is both exhilarating and scary. The faster we rally, the greater the joy, but the more one should be worried about the eventual reckoning. How far from now is that and what should we do about it?

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 5, 2017.


  • German Investors Now World’s Largest Gold Buyers

    – German gold demand surges from 17 ton-a-year to a 100 ton-plus per year
    – 6.8 Bln spent on German gold investment products in 2016, more per person than India and China
    – Germans turned to gold during financial crises and ongoing euro debasement
    – Evidence of latent retail demand on increased economic concerns
    – ‘Gold fulfils an important long-term, wealth preservation role in German investors’ portfolios’

    Editor: Mark O’Byrne
    ***
    India and China often grab the headlines as the world’s largest buyers of gold. In 2016 this was not the case.
    When measured on a per capita basis it is Germany that takes the impressive crown of largest gold buyer in 2016, all thanks to their investment market. Last year the country set a new personal best, ploughing as much as 6.8bn ($8 bn) into gold coins, bars and exchange-traded commodities (ETCs).

    This post was published at Gold Core on November 6, 2017.


  • Commodities vs. Technology in Trading

    Guest post from Paul Somerfield:
    In commodity trading, it’s important to take two kinds of technology into account. The first is technology that can affect the underlying price of the commodity and the second is disruptive digital technology that can change the way commodities are traded.
    Technology can be a game changer for commodity prices Take oil. A decade ago we were all being told that we’d reached peak oil, and that declining stocks would mean an astronomically high oil price in the future.
    Yet, at the time of writing, Brent crude is trading at $61.33 a barrel, way below its peak price. So what happened? Technology happened, that’s what. Advances in exploration and drilling technology meant that oil previously locked up in shale could be mined. An enormous amount of new inventory was able to exploited. So much for peak oil and a crude price nudging $200. Right now, the OPEC producers are trying to get the price so low that the US shale industry calls it a day because it’s not worth the expense of fracking and horizontal drilling to extract the oil.

    This post was published at Deviant Investor on November 4, 2017.


  • Gold Speculators Refuse To Give Up; Another Drop Likely

    Normally winter is a good time for gold, with men buying their significant others jewelry for Christmas and lots of New Years Day marriage proposals. Here’s an overview of the dynamic from Adam Hamilton of Zeal Intelligence:
    Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
    Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities experience, as its mined supply remains fairly steady all year long. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying dramatically depending on the time within the calendar year.
    This gold seasonality is fueled by well-known income-cycle and cultural drivers of outsized gold demand from around the world. And the biggest seasonal surge of all is just now getting underway heading into winter. As the Indian-wedding-season gold-jewelry buying that drives this metal’s big autumn rally winds down, the Western holiday season is ramping up. The holiday spirit puts everyone in the mood to spend money.

    This post was published at DollarCollapse on NOVEMBER 4, 2017.


  • Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2

    The gold miners’ stocks have largely ground sideways this year, consolidating their massive 2016 gains. That lackluster trading action, along with vexing underperformance relative to gold, has left gold stocks deeply out of favor. But these uninspiring technicals and resulting bearish sentiment should soon shift. The gold stocks are just now entering their strongest seasonal rally of the year, the super-bullish winter rally.
    Gold-stock performance is highly seasonal, which certainly sounds odd. The gold miners produce and sell their metal at relatively-constant rates year-round, so the temporal journey through calendar months should be irrelevant. Based on these miners’ revenues, there’s little reason investors should favor them more at certain times of the year than others. Yet history proves that’s exactly what happens in this sector.
    Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
    Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities experience, as its mined supply remains fairly steady all year long. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying dramatically depending on the time within the calendar year.

    This post was published at ZEAL LLC on November 3, 2017.


  • Doubling Down on Deflationary Forces

    Almost all other forecasters have been looking for a revival of inflation for years. And they still are.
    Zeal for Gold
    After the Fed bailed Wall Street out of the 2008 financial crisis, and exploded its balance sheet through quantitative ease, many investors, including astute hedge fund managers, foresaw hyper-inflation and charged into gold as the most likely beneficiary. They solemnly quoted Milton Friedman, who said that inflation is driven by central bank-created money, and leaping Fed assets foretold lots more of it. But inflation didn’t gallop, but receded – and with it, gold prices.
    But that hasn’t dissuaded the inflation bulls. Wall Street Journal columnist James Mackintosh wrote in the recent September 8 edition: ‘The danger is that the low inflation consensus has grown far too strong, on too little evidence.’ A September 1 Journal headline sums up those folks’ problem: ‘Inflation Still Subdued, Posing a Conundrum.’ They point to the low U. S. unemployment rate, the weak dollar, and stronger growth worldwide, which, they maintain, should intensify demand for commodities and push their prices up. Yet the personal consumption deflator, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, ex food and energy has been slowing since late last year.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 10/31/2017.


  • The Big Macro Play Ahead

    At NFTRH, we are about major macro turning points above all else. Of course, it is often years between these turning points or points of significant change so we are also about the here and now, and managing the trends, Old Turkey style.*
    Since we are all learning all the time, I have no problem admitting to you that while right and bullish on commodities and stocks in 2009, after becoming bullish on the precious metals in Q4 2008, I completely ignored Old Turkey due to my inner biases. The result has been that after taking excellent profits from the precious metals bull, personally, I have greatly under performed the stock market bull despite holding a bullish analytical view for the majority of the post-2012 period.
    Undeterred and ever plucky, we move forward. Currently, I play the bullish stock market like millions of other casino patrons, but this is as a trader and portfolio balancer, with the goal always to be in line with the macro backdrop of currency moves (I’ve been very long the US dollar for a few months now) and Treasury/Government bond yields and yield relationships.
    This week something happened that has gotten me geeked out like at no other time since Q4 2008, when it was time to put the real precious metals fundamental view (as opposed to commonly accepted gold bug versions) to the test and go all-in. This week, assuming it is confirmed by remaining active through the FOMC next week, we got a short-term signal in Treasury bond yields that starts the clock ticking on a big macro decision point, which may include an end to the stock mania and the beginning of a sustained bull phase in the gold sector, among other things.
    But first, we need to understand that the macro moves at an incredibly slow pace and one challenge I have had is to manage what I see clearly out ahead with the extended periods of intact current trend that seem to take forever to change. We as humans (and quants, algos, black boxes, casino patrons and mom & pop) are increasingly encouraged to try to compute massive amounts of information in real time and distill a market view from that at any given time, all at the behest of an overly aggressive financial media that wants to harvest your over exposed, bloodshot eyeballs on a daily, no hourly basis.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 27 October 2017.


  • Gold Price Rallies as China Fears ‘Minsky Moment’

    Gold price losses of 2.0% for the week so far were cut to 1.2% lunchtime Thursday in London, as world equities fell from new record highs and government bond yields rose against a backdrop of fresh geopolitical tensions from Spain to India and China.
    After Wall Street set new all-time highs last night, gold priced against the rising US Dollar touched $1288 per ounce as Western stock markets marked the 30th anniversary of October 1987’s Black Monday – the sharpest ever 1-day fall in equities – by falling some 0.7% on average.
    Commodities slipped and major government bond prices rose, nudging longer-term interest rates lower.
    The weakest UK retail sales data in 4 years meantime saw the Pound retreat to a 1-week low on the foreign exchange market, helping the UK gold price in Pounds per ounce to halve this week’s earlier 1.5% loss to trade at 976.
    “From being the most hated developed market currency earlier this year,” says a Hedge Fund Watch from French investment bank Societe Generale, “Sterling is now back in favour” with speculators.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 10/19/2017.


  • What a Gold-Backed Yuan and Cryptocurrencies May Mean for the Dollar

    Amoungst all the crypto news this, and crypto news that, was a tiny item appearing in the Nikkei Asian Review on September 1st. Reporting from Denpasar, Indonesia, Damon Evans wrote, ‘China is expected shortly to launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold in what analysts say could be a game-changer for the industry.’
    Not bitcoin backed, not ethereum backed, g-o-l-d backed. How low tech of the Chinese. For the moment, oil is priced in dollars, whether it’s Brent or West Texas Intermediate.
    Evans explained,
    China’s move will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent U. S. sanctions by trading in yuan. To further entice trade, China (the world’s largest oil importer) says the yuan will be fully convertible into gold on exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
    This will be China’s first commodities futures contract open to foreign companies such as investment funds, trading houses and petroleum companies.

    This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on October 20, 2017.


  • Europe’s Weight In Gold and Silver

    Gold, and silver, have always been valuable. Through upturns in fiat currency, downturns in commodities, and everything in between, the precious metals have always been a useful indicator and base level for the worth of things internationally.
    Learn How to Exploit the Gold Frenzy! Far from being the hallmark of huge institutions, like the Federal Reserve, you can take advantage of the evergreen currency to secure your own ‘reserve’.
    Why Use Gold?
    There have been few occasions where government has been criticized for keeping hold of gold reserves. Quite apart from it, in fact, with the British government panned for selling back in 2002.
    Buy Silver Quarters – In Stock, Ships Fast! There has never been a better time in fact, with measures over the world being taken up that can threaten your ‘liquid’ cash flow. Over in Europe, there has been legislation introduced as the EU attempt to prevent bank runs that threatens your ability to withdraw your own cash in the event of adverse economic conditions.

    This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on October 12, 2017.


  • Germans Have Quietly Become the World’s Biggest Buyers of Gold

    When I talk about Indians’ well-known affinity for gold, I tend to focus on Diwali and the wedding season late in the year. Giving gifts of beautiful gold jewelry during these festivals is considered auspicious in India, and historically we’ve been able to count on prices being supported by increased demand.
    Another holiday that triggers gold’s Love Trade is Dussehra, which fell on September 30 this year. Thanks to Dussehra, India’s gold imports rose an incredible 31 percent in September compared to the same month last year, according to GFMS data. The country brought in 48 metric tons, equivalent to $2 billion at today’s prices.
    As I’ve shared with you many times before, Indians have long valued gold not only for its beauty and durability but also as financial security. Indian households have the largest private gold holdings in the world, standing at an estimated 24,000 metric tons. That figure surpasses the combined official gold reserves of the United States, Germany, Italy, France, China and Russia.
    A New Global Leader in Gold Investing?
    But as attracted to gold as Indians are, they weren’t the world’s biggest investors in the yellow metal last year, and neither were the Chinese. According to a new report from theWorld Gold Council (WGC), that title shifted hands to Germany in 2016, with investors there ploughing as much as $8 billion into gold coins, bars and exchange-traded commodities (ETCs). This set a new annual record for the European country.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on Thursday, 12 October 2017.


  • What Few Expect: Inflation Will Surge, Destabilizing the Status Quo

    Few seem to ponder what global shortages in key commodities might do to prices.
    If there is any economic truism that is accepted by virtually everyone, it’s that inflation is low and will stay low into the foreseeable future. The reasons are numerous: technology is deflationary, globalization is deflationary, central banks will keep interest rates near-zero essentially forever, and so on.
    Just for laughs, let’s look at healthcare, almost 20% of America’s entire economy, as an example of low inflation forever. If being up over 200% in the 21st century is low inflation, I’d hate to see high inflation.

    This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on TUESDAY, OCTOBER 03, 2017.


  • What Few Expect: Inflation Will Surge, Destablizing the Status Quo

    Few seem to ponder what global shortages in key commodities might do to prices.
    If there is any economic truism that is accepted by virtually everyone, it’s that inflation is low and will stay low into the foreseeable future. The reasons are numerous: technology is deflationary, globalization is deflationary, central banks will keep interest rates near-zero essentially forever, and so on.
    Just for laughs, let’s look at healthcare, almost 20% of America’s entire economy, as an example of low inflation forever. If being up over 200% in the 21st century is low inflation, I’d hate to see high inflation.
    Here’s the official Consumer Price Index (CPI), which as many have noted, severely distorts real-world inflation by claiming big-ticket items such as college tuition and healthcare are mere slivers in household budgets.
    Note the remarkably stable trend line in CPI over the past 40 years. This certainly doesn’t shout “inflation is near-zero and will stay low indefinitely.”
    Here’s the PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of core inflation. Let’s put it this way: either the PCE is real and the CPI is false, or vice versa; they can’t both be accurate measures of real-world inflation.

    This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on OCT 3, 2017.


  • Sustainability Or Growth? E&Ps Face A Difficult Decision

    Only 16 E&Ps are expected to grow production and keep spending within cash flow
    U. S. unconventional E&Ps often find themselves in a difficult position in the current environment. The environment has long been ‘grow or die,’ with high emphasis placed on companies growing production. Firms that have little growth prospects generally trade at significantly lower multiples.
    On the other hand, a different group of investors have much different priorities.
    Many investors have begun to place a premium on operational sustainability instead of growth. These investors prefer that companies are able to sustain operations and generate free cash flow, rather than spend beyond their means to keep growing.
    Companies, then, are often forced to decide. Is it worthwhile to spend beyond cash flow to grow? The ideal company is able to do both, but most must choose one or the other. A tough downturn and volatile commodities prices have made E&Ps and investors cautious.
    Out of 119 E&P companies, 72 are predicted to have average 2017 production exceed Q4 2016 production. Significantly fewer, only 27, are expected to have positive free cash flow in 2017. These two are not mutually exclusive, as a total of 16 companies have both positive free cash flow and production growth.
    These 119 companies are plotted below.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 3, 2017.


  • Gold Sales at Australia’s Perth Mint Doubled Last Month

    Gold sales at Australia’s Perth Mint doubled in September. Meanwhile, sales of silversurged 78%.
    Sales of gold coins and minted bars jumped to 46,415 ounces in September, up from 23,130 ounces a month ago. Silver sales during the month came in at 697,849 ounces, compared with 392,091 ounces in August.
    Australia ranks as the second largest gold producer in the world behind China. The Perth Mint refines more than 90% of the country’s gold.
    Officials at the mint said investors seized upon the opportunity offered by the drop in the price of gold in late September to buy. The price fell after a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting and hints that the US central bank would raise interest rates again in December. The unveiling of the Trump tax plan also seemed to strengthen the dollar, placing price pressure on gold and silver.
    Late last month, ‘commodities king’ Dennis Gartman said investors should take this opportunity to buy gold, predicting the bull run is not over.

    This post was published at Schiffgold on OCTOBER 3, 2017.