• Tag Archives Europe
  • Demand for Physical Gold Up, Supply Down in First Half of 2017

    It’s easy to get caught up in what the Fed will do next, or the latest political brouhaha in Washington D. C. And of course, this stuff matters. But when it comes to gold, you should never lose sight of fundamentals.
    Nothing is more fundamental than supply and demand. Based on the GFMS Gold Survey 2017 H1 Update Outlook, the fundamentals for gold are trending in a positive direction. Demand is pushing upward, while supply is falling.
    Demand for physical gold rose to 1,895 tons in the first half of 2017, a 17% increase over the same period last year.
    Comparing the first and second quarter of this year also reveals an upward trend. Demand climbed in Q2 2017 to 957 tons. That was up from 938 tons in Q1, a 2% increase.
    Meanwhile, total supply dropped 5% in the first half of the year. Mine output was stagnant, falling by 0.2%. Production dropped precipitously in China and Australia, the world’s number one and number two producers. The amount of scrap gold also fell, helping to drive the decline in supply.
    In many ways, the demand increase signals a return to normalcy after a tumultuous 2016.
    After the rollercoaster ride of events for the gold market in 2016, from a jewelers’ strike to Brexit to Trump to demonetization, 2017 has avoided similar dramatic events in the first half, at least from a gold perspective with far right candidates seeing little success in a range of European countries. Indeed the first half of this year has arguably been more of a reversion to normality across much of the gold market, with neither the highs (of ETF demand) or lows (of truly pitiful Asian demand) that were recorded in the first half of 2016 being repeated.’

    This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 27, 2017.


  • Bill Blain: “Are We In A Bubble About To Burst, Or Are We Facing Massive Equity Upside?”

    Are We In A Bubble About To Burst, Or Are We Facing Massive Equity Upside?
    ‘A liberal is a conservative who has been arrested.’
    No surprises from the Fed last night. Unchanged rate talk and hints about reducing the balance sheet ‘relatively soon’. We can go figure what ‘relatively’ means when inflation picks up. The stock market soared and VIX tumbled to a record low. Was that a warning about complacency? Since the 2008 crisis we’ve been here many times before – worrying about signals the economy is strengthening when suddenly its dived weaker.
    But, those us with longer memories can recall when the US economy has turned dramatically stronger – and in 1994, (yes, I remember it well), when the Fed acted prematurely, spiked the recovery and triggered what we’d now call a massive Treasury market TanTrum. This time it feels very different. I suspect we are very much still on course towards normalisation – a new kind of new normal: low rates, low inflation and steady state low growth.
    Stuff to watch today: Dovish Fed boosts stocks (record Dow) and dollar crashes. Lots of corporate results to wonder and worry about! Stuff the think about: Deutsche Bank results show it’s taken yet another thumping – difficult to see how it plays catch up and regains market relevance when it’s still swinging the headcount axe. Where is the US economy when inflation remains so low? What are the risks to Europe of the low dollar?

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.


  • Gold Price Jumps in Dollars as ‘Low-Rate Yellen’ Gets Trump’s Backing

    Gold price gains continued for Dollar investors on Thursday but held flat for other traders as the US currency touched its lowest Euro value since January 2015 following yesterday’s “no change” decision from the Federal Reserve.
    “The actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data,” said the Fed’s July statement, seemingly delaying a move to start reducingits $4.6 trillion holdings of QE-bought Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds.
    Asian stock markets rose – as did most commodities and major government bond prices – but European equities then slipped as the Dollar bounced from its new 30-month lows versus the 19-nation single currency.
    Gold priced in Dollars today set its highest London benchmarking since 14 June at $1262 per ounce.
    But priced in Euros, gold fixed at only a 3-session high. The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce reached only a 2-session high.
    Thursday morning’s Dollar price stood 2.0% above the 2017 average to date.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 07/27/2017.


  • JULY 26/DOVISH FED WITH ‘LACK OF INFLATION’ SENDS GOLD AND SILVER SOARING AFTER COMEX CLOSES/NORTH KOREA WILL LAUNCH ANOTHER ICBM MAYBE BY TONIGHT/USA PASSES LEGISLATION ORCHESTRATING MORE SANCTI…

    GOLD: $1249.85 DOWN $2.55
    Silver: $16.46 DOWN 9 cent(s)
    Closing access prices:
    Gold $1260.75
    silver: $16.67
    SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1254.41 DOLLARS PER OZ
    NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1248.40
    PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $6.01
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1252.10
    NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1245.65
    Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$6.45
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1245.40
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1246.50 ???
    LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1248.10
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1248.15
    For comex gold:
    JULY/
    NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 14 NOTICE(S) FOR 1400 OZ.
    TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 171 FOR 17100 OZ (.5318 TONNES)
    For silver:
    JULY
    21 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
    105,000 OZ/
    Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3170 for 15,850,000 oz
    XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
    WE HAVE NOW ENTERED OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK:
    COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY: TONIGHT JULY 26.2017
    LONDON BASED OPTIONS EXPIRY: JULY 31.2017 AT 11AM OR SO.
    (OTC/LBMA CONTRACTS)

    This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on July 26, 2017.


  • When Will The ECB Run Out Of German Bunds To Buy: Here Is The Math

    Speaking earlier on Monday, ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said that despite growing market concerns, the ECB “sees no need to set a timetable to end bond buying” adding that “the question is not when but how to continue. That will depend on the economic projections for 2018, which we will have in the fall […] It’s not about an abrupt halt, but about registering that we are no longer confronted by such an acute crisis as we were when we implemented the measures. I consider it wise to step off the gas slowly.”
    In other words, just like all other central bank pronouncements, this too was meant to instill confidence in the economy. There is just one problem: the question which Nowotny tried so hard to ignore is precisely the one that matters as we most recently explained in “Both ECB And BOJ Are Just Months Away From Running Out Of Bonds To Buy.” The question is even more relevant considering it has been the ECB’s purchases of corporate (and government) bonds that has led to a record drop in European credit spreads as we showed yesterday.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 25, 2017.


  • German police make arrests in March heist of giant Canadian gold coin

    Police in Germany have arrested individuals in connection with one of the most brazen and famous recent coin heists in the world.
    Law enforcement officials in Berlin detained four suspects in the March 2017 theft of the 100-kilogram gold Canadian coin with a face value of $1 million from the Bode Museum in Germany’s capital.
    The 2007 coin was minted from 100 kilograms of 0.99999 fine gold, one of six made by the Royal Canadian Mint. A Coin World correspondent from Germany, who is a numismatic journalist there, has confirmed that 13 suspects were targeted in raids in Berlin’s Neukoelln district. The raids were announced July 12.
    All four suspects detained are under the age of 21, and according to multiple European news reports, are from a large Arab family with connections to organized crime.

    This post was published at Coin World


  • Greece Approved for $1.8 Billion Conditional Loan From IMF

    The International Monetary Fund agreed to a new conditional bailout for Greece, ending two years of speculation on whether it would join in another rescue and giving the seal of approval demanded by many of the country’s euro-area creditors.
    The Washington-based fund said Thursday its executive board approved ‘in principle’ a new loan worth as much as $1.8 billion. The disbursement of funds is contingent on euro-zone countries providing debt relief to Greece.
    ‘As we have said many times, even with full program implementation, Greece will not be able to restore debt sustainability and needs further debt relief from its European partners,’ IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a statement. ‘A debt strategy anchored in more realistic assumptions needs to be agreed. I expect a plan to restore debt sustainability to be agreed soon between Greece and its European partners.’
    IMF officials estimate that, even if Greece carries out promised reforms, the nation’s debt will reach about 150 percent of gross domestic product by 2030, and become ‘explosive’ beyond that point. European creditors could bring the debt under control by extending grace periods, lengthening the maturity of the debt or deferring interest payments, the IMF said in a report accompanying the announcement.

    This post was published at bloomberg


  • Money Is Money, Wherever It Comes From

    One of the crucial things to understand about today’s world is that money is fungible. Whether it’s created in Japan, Europe, China or the US, once it’s tossed by a central bank into one or another part of the global economy, it eventually finds its way to a common pool of liquidity.
    So the modest US tightening of the past year (100 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate, slight decrease in Fed balance sheet) has to be seen in a global context. And that context is still insanely easy. Here, for instance, is China’s ‘social financing’ – their term for total new debt:

    This post was published at DollarCollapse on JULY 25, 2017.


  • Scientists Warn That The Countdown To The Extinction of The Human Race Is Accelerating

    Humanity is steamrolling toward a date with extinction, and yet most people have absolutely no idea that this is happening. Most of us like to think that we are part of the smartest, tallest and fastest generation in human history, but science has actually shown that the exact opposite is true. Compared to our ancient ancestors, we areshorter, slower and we have been losing mental capacity for thousands of years. And just this week, a groundbreaking study that discovered that large numbers of human males in the western world may soon be incapable of reproducing made headlines all over the planet…
    Humans could become extinct if sperm counts in men from North America, Europe and Australia continue to fall at current rates, a doctor has warned.
    Researchers assessing the results of nearly 200 separate studies say sperm counts among men from these areas seem to have halved in less than 40 years.
    The 185 studies that the researchers took their data from were all conducted between 1973 and 2011. Dr. Hagai Levine was one of the lead scientists involved in the study, and he found that for men in North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand, sperm concentrations declined by 52.4 percent during the study period, and total sperm count declined by a whopping 59.3 percent.
    If these trends continue, we will soon have tens of millions of young men that are incapable of producing children. The following comes from the Washington Post…

    This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on July 25th, 2017.


  • Why Robots Will Win the Coming Trade Wars

    The first step to surviving a war is knowing which side you are on. But in a trade war, that’s not always easy.
    Suppose the US imposed tariffs on steel imported from the European Union. Prices on goods made with that steel would probably rise, but this would affect you only to the extent you rely on those particular goods.
    When the EU responded by slapping tariffs on items ‘Made in USA,’ it would hurt you only if your livelihood depended on those export revenues.
    Of course, we may be headed toward a wider trade war, which could cause more general price inflation, hurting everyone in some way – though I think it will be more targeted at first.
    But one group is sure to win in a trade war because demand for their services will skyrocket.
    Who are these lucky people?
    They aren’t people at all. They’re robots.
    Trade Talks Fizzle
    If you monitor trade and logistics news like I do, the signs are everywhere. Last week, US and Chinese negotiators met in Washington to cap the 100-day dialogue that Presidents Trump and Xi promised at their April summit.
    It didn’t go well, apparently.

    This post was published at Mauldin Economics on JULY 25, 2017.


  • S&P Futures Bounce As VIX Hammered, Europe “Euphoric”

    After sliding to 3 month lows on “car cartel” concerns yesterday, European stocks have rebounded after three days of declines, while oil extended gains after Saudi export cuts, with Brent rising above $49 and WTI just shy of $47. Asian stocks fell while S&P futures rose 0.2% to 2,473, putting yesterday’s GOOGL drop on plunging Costs-Per-Click in the rearview mirror.
    Helping today’s episode of global, pervasive complacency is the VIX which was hammered early by 3% in early Tuesday trading, down to 9.17. As previewed on Monday, the dollar rebounded after dropping to its lowest since August as investors await Wednesday’s U. S. interest rate decision; the greenback strength sent Gold lower for the first time in four days.
    US TSYs sell-off in relatively heavy volume after a large futures block trade in London hours and Bunds decline as strong German IFO data weighs. The dollar rallied from overnight low against G-10 and UST move helps USD/JPY trade through yesterday’s high.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 25, 2017.


  • Deutsche Bank CEO tells staff: Prepare for Brexit “worst outcome“

    Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan told employees that the German lender is preparing for a hard Brexit in which roles will “inevitably” move from London to Frankfurt.
    Cryan said in a video announcement on July 11 that the bank “will assume a reasonable worst outcome” from the U.K.’s talks with the European Union, according to a Bloomberg News report.
    “The worst is always likely to be worse than people can imagine,” Cryan said.
    Deutsche Bank operates a branch in the U.K., and while London is one of the firm’s major investment banking hubs, Cryan said he will move “the vast majority” of the markets balance sheet to Frankfurt. As a result, some roles will move too.
    “There’s an awful lot of detail to be ironed out and agreed, depending on what the rules and regulations turn out to be,” Cryan said in the video. “We will try to minimize disruption for our clients and for our own people, but inevitably roles will need to be either moved or at least added in Frankfurt.”

    This post was published at Business Insider


  • BoJ Keeps Rates Unchanged, Postpones 2% Inflation Deadline

    The Bank of Japan kept its monetary stimulus program unchanged even as it pushed back the projected timing for reaching 2 percent inflation for a sixth time.
    The downgraded price outlook will raise more questions about the sustainability of the BOJ’s stimulus at time when other major central banks are turning toward normalizing their monetary policy. The European Central Bank, which is said to examine options for winding down quantitative easing, concludes its own governing council meeting later on Thursday.
    By again delaying the timing for hitting its price goal, the BOJ acknowledged the need to continue easing for at least several more years, probably beyond 2020 because of a sales-tax increase scheduled for late 2019, said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief Japan economist at Credit Suisse Group AG and a former BOJ official.
    “Going forward, there will be even more attention on the sustainability of the stimulus from market participants and lawmakers,” Shirawaka said.
    BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it was regrettable the central bank needed to push back its inflation goal again, saying it hadn’t intentionally made its forecasts too optimistic. He noted that central banks in the U.S. and Europe had also overestimated inflation.

    This post was published at bloomberg


  • War on Cash Hits a Snag in Europe

    The war on cash may have hit a snag in Europe.
    A lot of people apparently don’t want to play along.
    If a recent survey published by the European Commission is any indication, the bankers and central planners have their work cut out for them as they push toward a cashless society. Ninety-five percent of respondents opposed a proposal to put an upper limit on cash payments.
    As ZeroHedge reported via the Wolfstreet.com, the commission announced it was exploring the option of imposing a ceiling on cash payments earlier this year. The plan was to begin implementing the cross-regional measures as soon as 2018. The commission survey was intended to create ‘a veneer of respectability and accountability.’
    That didn’t work out so well.
    Most telling was the answer to the following question:
    ‘How would the introduction of restrictions on payments in cash at EU level benefit you, or your business or your organisation (multiple replies are possible)?’

    This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 24, 2017.


  • Manufacturing Rebound Sends US PMI To 6-Month High (As European PMI Hits 6-Month Low)

    Following Europe’s PMI slump to six-month lows this morning, US Composite PMI rose to a six-month high, with Manufacturng surprising to the upside (4-mo high). The stronger PMI reading was supported by accelerated growth in output, new orders, employment and stocks of inputs during July, but the principal weak spot in the economy remained exports, with foreign goods orders dropping.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 24, 2017.


  • SWOT Analysis: Silver In the Spotlight

    Strengths
    The best performing precious metal for the week was silver, up 3.34 percent as investors loaded up on ETFs that purchase the physical metal, perhaps speculating that silver would outperform gold if the latter rallied. Gold traders and analysts remained bullish this week, for the fifth week, as the European Central Bank keeps its stimulus going, reports Bloomberg. In addition, as the dollar slumps amid an investigation into President Trump, gold heads for the first back-to-back weekly advance since early June, another Bloomberg article reads. Gold bulls are keeping their faith in the metal, reports Bloomberg, as the equity rally pares the yellow metal’s gains. Gold bulls have pointed to slow inflation and Fed concerns that asset prices look ‘somewhat rich.’ Similarly, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey shows fund managers are growing hesitant to buy U. S. equities. Jason Mayer of Sprott Asset Management says that the non-stop bull market has led to a lot of complacency where managers aren’t hedging. ‘Once that tide turns, that could prove to be bullish for gold and precious metals,’ Mayer said. After President Trump’s economic revitalization agenda once again faltered, the U. S. dollar fell to an 11-month low this week, reports Bloomberg. Opposition to Trump’s health-care reform bill, along with European shares dropping amid earnings disappointments, sent gold to its highest level this month.

    This post was published at SilverSeek on July 24, 2017.


  • European Stocks Fall To 3 Month Lows On “Carmaker Cartel” Fears, Sliding PMIs; US Futures Lower

    In a mixed session, which has seen Asian stocks ex-Japan broadly higher, the European Stoxx 600 index dropped as much as 0.6% after data Markit PMI data signalled euro-area economy grew in July at its slowest pace in six months while carmakers extended declines on continued concern about antitrust collusion in the industry. Germany’s DAX Index was hardest-hit euro-area benchmark, down as much as 0.8%. Autos continued to be the worst-performing sector on the Stoxx Europe 600 after EU and German regulators said they are studying possible collusion among German automakers. Der Spiegel magazine reported on Friday that BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen may have cooperated for decades on technology.
    ***
    Concerns have risen that with the Euro trading near its strongest level in 2 years and appreciating 11% against the USD YTD, it may weigh on exporters’ earnings; 1.20 on the EURUSD is being seen a key barrier beyond which European earnings will suffer. As a result, the euro headed for its first decline in three days as data showed the region’s economy cooling at the start of a week packed with earnings results and a Federal Reserve rate decision. Stocks were dragged down for a second day by carmakers amid a collusion probe.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 24, 2017.


  • Hungary’s Orban: EU And “Soros Mafia Network” Are Seeking To “Muslimize Europe”

    The war of words between Hungary’s outspoken prime minister Viktor Orban and liberal billionaire George Soros escalated to previously unseen levels on Saturday, when the Hungarian PM said that European Union leaders and Soros are seeking a “new, mixed, Muslimized Europe,” however during a visit to Romania, Orban said that Hungary’s border fences, supported by other Central European countries, will block the EU-Soros effort to increase Muslim migration into Europe.
    Slamming the Hungarian-born billionaire who has been accused by the Hungarian government of using his vast wealth to fund pro-mass migration organizations to create a ‘new, mixed, Muslimized Europe’, Orban said Brussels was in an ‘alliance against the people’s will’ with the financier.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 22, 2017.


  • Market Report: Classic bear squeeze conditions

    Gold and silver recovered well this week, continuing a rally which is now two weeks old. Gold, priced in dollars, rose by another $13 to $1247.50 in early European trade this morning (Friday), up $31 from the lows of 7 July. Silver has now recovered $1.75 from the lows of the flash-crash two weeks ago, to $16.40 this morning.
    Comex futures volume has been normal, but there’s something unusual happening, best exemplified by silver. We know that the bullion banks have shaken out the speculators (mostly hedge fund longs), and the flash-crash referred to above will have taken out the speculators’ stops, enabling the banks to close their short positions profitably. This (as of Tuesday, 11 July) left the managed money category (i.e. hedge funds) net short of 6,361 contracts, representing 31.8 million ounces. The extremeness of this position is shown in our next chart, only exceeded once, in mid-2015.

    This post was published at GoldMoney on July 21, 2017.