The Dreaded ‘Flattening Yield Curve’ Meets QE Unwind

During prior incidents of an ‘inverted’ yield curve, the Fed had no tools to get the market to push up long-term yields. Today it has one: the QE Unwind.
The price of three-month Treasury securities fell and the yield – which moves in the opposite direction – rose, ending the year at 1.39%, after having spiked to 1.47% on December 26, the highest since September 12, 2008. This is in the upper half of the Fed’s new target range for the federal funds rate (1.25% to 1.50%). Back in October 2015, the yield was still at 0%:

This post was published at Wolf Street by Wolf Richter ‘ Dec 30, 2017.

The Fed Plays the Economy Like an Accordion

We talk a lot about how central banks serve as the primary force driving the business cycle. When a recession hits, central banks like the Federal Reserve drive interest rates down and launch quantitative easing to stimulate the economy. Once the recovery takes hold, the Fed tightens its monetary policy, raising interest rates and ending QE. When the recovery appears to be in full swing, the central bank shrinks its balance sheet. This sparks the next recession and the cycle repeats itself.
This is a layman’s explanation of the business cycle. But how do the maneuverings of central banks actually impact the economy? How does this work?
The Yield Curve Accordion Theory is one way to visually grasp exactly what the Fed and other central banks are doing. Westminster College assistant professor of economics Hal W. Snarr explained this theory in a recent Mises Wire article.
The yield curve (a plot of interest rates versus the maturities of securities of equal credit quality) is a handy economic and investment tool. It generally slopes upward because investors expect higher returns when their money is tied up for long periods. When the economy is growing robustly, it tends to steepen as more firms break ground on long-term investment projects. For example, firms may decide to build new factories when the economy is rosy. Since these projects take years to complete, firms issue long-term bonds to finance the construction. This increases the supply of long-term bonds along downward-sloping demand, which pushes long-term bond prices down and yields up. The black dots along the black line in the figure below gives the 2004 yield curve. It slopes upward because a robust recovery was underway.

This post was published at Schiffgold on DECEMBER 27, 2017.

The Integrated Non-USD Platforms

The many new integrated non-USD platforms devised and constructed by China finally have critical mass. They threaten the King Dollar as global currency reserve. Clearly, the USDollar cannot be displaced in trade and banking without a viable replacement for widespread daily usage. Two years ago, critics could not point to a viable integrated system outside the USD realm. Now they can. The integration of commercial, construction, financial, transaction, investment, and even security systems can finally be described as having critical mass in displacing the USDollar. The King Dollar faces competition of a very real nature. The Jackass has promoted a major theme in the last several months, that of the Dual Universe. At first the USGovt will admit that it cannot fight the non-USD movement globally. To do so with forceful means would involve sanctions against multiple nations, and a war with both Russia & China. Their value together is formidable in halting the financial battles from becoming a global war. The United States prefers to invade and destroy indefensible nations like Libya, Iraq, Ukraine, Syria, and by proxy Yemen. The USMilitary appears formidable against undeveloped nations, seeking to destroy their infra-structure and their entire economies, in pursuit of the common Langley theme of destabilization. In the process, the USMilitary since the Korean War has killed 25 million civilians, a figure receiving increased publicity. The Eastern nations and the opponents to US financial hegemony will not tolerate the abuse any longer. They have been organizing on a massive scale in the last several years. Ironically, the absent stability can be seen in the United States after coming full circle. The deep division of good versus evil, of honest versus corrupt, of renewed development versus endless war, has come to light front and center within numerous important USGovt offices and agencies.
The shape of the US nation will change with the loss of the USDollar’s status as global currency reserve. The starting point for the global resistance against the King Dollar was 9/11 and the onset of the War on Terror. It has been more aptly described as a war of terror waged by the USGovt as a smokescreen for global narcotics monopoly and tighter control of USD movements. Then later, following the Lehman failure (killjob by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs) and the installation of the Zero Interest Rate Policy and Quantitative Easing as fixed monetary policies, the community of nations has been objecting fiercely. The zero bound on rates greatly distorted all asset valuations and financial markets. The hyper monetary inflation works to destroy capital in recognized steps. These (ZIRP & QE) are last ditch desperation policies designed to enable much larger liquidity for the insolvent banking structures. Without them, the big US banks would suffer failure. They also provide cover for the amplified relief efforts directed at the multi-$trillion derivative mountain. In no way, can the global tolerate unbridled monetary inflation which undermines the global banking reserves.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 26 December 2017.

ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged, Sees Current Policy Stance “Contributing To Favorable Liquidity Conditions”

As expected, there was little surprise in the ECB monetary policy decision, which kept all three key ECB rates unchanged, and which announced that rates will “remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.”
As it unveiled before, QE will run at 30BN per month from January 2018 until the end of September ‘or beyond, if necessary, and in case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim.’ The ECB also noted it can extend QE size or duration if needed.
The central bank repeated it will reinvest maturing debt for extended period after QE, and that the “reinvestment will continue for as long as necessary, will help deliver appropriate stance” and “will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance.”
The market reaction to the statement which was completely in line with expectations, was modest, with the EURUSD hardly even moving on the news.
Full statement below

Monetary policy decisions At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 14, 2017.

Pound Slides After BOE Holds Rates: Warns Q4 Economy “Slightly Softer”, Sees “Gradual And Limited” Rate Hikes

As previewed moments ago, the BOE decision was rather unexciting, and after its November rate hike – the first in a decade – which many speculated could be a “one and done”, the Bank of England unanimously kept rates unchanged at 0.50% as expected. The lack of dissenters meant this was the first time the nine policy makers have been in agreement since February. The committee also left the BOE’s QE unchanged.
MPC holds #BankRate at 0.50%, maintains government bond purchases at 435bn and corporate bond purchases at 10bn. pic.twitter.com/mrA5UcxxeY
— Bank of England (@bankofengland) December 14, 2017

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 14, 2017.

Mark Yusko Hits a Four-Bagger

My friend Mark Yusko, founder and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, is a phenomenon; and when you read his third-quarter letter, excerpted in today’s Outside the Box, you’ll see what I mean. His missive (a 72-pager!), has two main parts: a ‘Letter to Fellow Investors’ and Morgan Creek’s ‘Third Quarter Market Review and Outlook.’
Now, I could subject you to the latter, but the former is a heck of a lot more fun. It’s an amazing disquisition that takes us deep into the weeds on the subjects of Isaac Newton, Yogi Berra, and Willy Wonka. As you savor Mark’s encyclopedic knowledge and obvious love of baseball (and just about everything else), you may begin to understand why he’s such an effective hedge fund manager. Energy like this is hard to top!
And of course, Mark isn’t just spouting off; he’s calling on the aforenamed greats (among others) to help us ‘solve the puzzle’ of today’s increasingly screwball market. As he says,
As we stand here today in November examining the data, Darkness did not Fall and Gravity did not Rule on the equity markets, so what do we make of these results? Has the Universal Law of Gravity (valuation) been repealed? Have the global Central Banks finally discovered Babson’s anti-gravity machine, or is QE the symbol for the new element Upsidasium?
Let’s look back over the past year and see if we can call on a few heavyweights to help us with these questions and then we’ll introduce a couple of new characters to our serial to help us solve the puzzle.

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on DECEMBER 13, 2017.

The Process Through Which the First Major Central Bank Goes Bust Has Begun

In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, Central Banks began cornering the sovereign bond market via Zero or even Negative interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) programs.
The goal here was to reflate the financial system by pushing the ‘risk free rate’ to extraordinary lows. By doing this, Central Bankers were hoping to:
1) Backstop the financial system (sovereign bonds are the bedrock for all risk).
2) Induce capital to flee cash (ZIRP and NIRP punish those sitting on cash) and move into risk assets, thereby reflating asset bubbles.
In this regard, these policies worked: the crisis was halted and the financial markets began reflating.
However, Central Banks have now set the stage for a crisis many times worse than 2008.
Let me explain…
The 2008 crisis was triggered by large financial firms going bust as the assets they owned (bonds based on mortgages) turned out to be worth much less (if not worthless), than the financial firms had been asserting.
This induced a panic, as a crisis of confidence rippled throughout the global private banking system.
During the next crisis, this same development will unfold (a crisis in confidence induced by the underlying assets being worth much less than anyone believes), only this time it will be CENTRAL banks (not private banks) facing this issue.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 11 December 2017.

Bitcoin Mania Shows The World Financial System Is a Con

The hidden agenda in the so-called tax reform bill is to act as stop-gap quantitative easing to plug the ‘liquidity’ hole that is opening up as the Federal Reserve (America’s central bank) makes a few gestures to winding down its balance sheet and ‘normalizing’ interest rates. Thus, the aim of the tax bill is to prop up capital markets, and the apprehension of this lately is what keeps stocks making daily record highs. Okay, sorry, a lot to unpack there.
Primer: quantitative easing (QE) is a the Federal Reserve’s weasel phrase for its practice of just creating ‘money’ out of thin air, which it uses to buy US Treasury bonds (and other stuff). The Fed buys this stuff through intermediary Too Big To Fail banks which allows them to cream off a cut and, theoretically, pump the ‘money’ into the economy. This ‘money’ is the ‘liquidity.’ As it happens, most of that money ends up in the capital markets. Stocks go up and up and bond yields stay ultra low with bond prices ultra high. What remains on the balance sheets are a shit-load of IOUs.
The third round of QE was officially halted in 2014 in the USA. However, the world’s other main central banks acted in rotation – passing the baton of QE, like in a relay race – so that when the US slacked off, Japan, Britain, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of China, took over money-printing duties. And because money flies easily around the world via digital banking, a lot of that foreign money ended up in ‘sure-thing’ US capital markets (as well as their own ). Mega-tons of ‘money’ were created out of thin air around the world since the near-collapse of the system in 2008.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on December 8, 2017.

Shocking New Stock Market Prediction Shows When We’ll Hit a Top

The current bull market is in its ninth year, but Money Morning Liquidity Specialist Lee Adler’s newest stock market prediction shows that we are now in its final stages. In fact, he sees the S&P 500 hitting its final high sometime in the first quarter of 2018.
As December unfolds, we’ve seen a breakout in stocks, and Adler’s technical analysis bumped up his long-term price target on the S&P 500 to 2,800. That’s based on his work with market cycles and published in his Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader Market Updates each week. Simply put, by rising above 2,630, the market’s character changed for the better, suggesting one more leg higher.
However, December looks like the last chance to ride the current bull markethigher before conditions change and a bear market becomes likely…
Stock Market Prediction: Expect a Market Top in Q1
Pundits considered the U. S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program as the punch bowl keeping the recovery party going and goosing the economy and the stock market for several years.
However, as Adler has been warning, things will change in 2018…
This Book Could Make You a Millionaire: The secrets in this book have produced 42 chances to double, triple, and even quadruple your money this year alone. Claim your free copy…
And it already has, now that the Fed’s bond purchases are over. Plus, we’ve already seen the first of several planned hikes in short-term interest rates.
So far, it has not made much of a dent.
However, the forces of monetary policy and liquidity will be hostile to the markets in 2018. The Fed’s program, which it calls ‘normalization,’ is designed to reduce the size of its balance sheet.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on December 6, 2017.

Bitcoin’s ‘Message’ & Tax Reform’s ‘Hidden Agenda’

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,
The hidden agenda in the so-called tax reform bill is to act as stop-gap quantitative easing to plug the ‘liquidity’ hole that is opening up as the Federal Reserve (America’s central bank) makes a few gestures to winding down its balance sheet and ‘normalizing’ interest rates. Thus, the aim of the tax bill is to prop up capital markets, and the apprehension of this lately is what keeps stocks making daily record highs. Okay, sorry, a lot to unpack there.
Primer: quantitative easing (QE) is a the Federal Reserve’s weasel phrase for its practice of just creating ‘money’ out of thin air, which it uses to buy US Treasury bonds (and other stuff). The Fed buys this stuff through intermediary Too Big To Fail banks which allows them to cream off a cut and, theoretically, pump the ‘money’ into the economy. This ‘money’ is the ‘liquidity.’ As it happens, most of that money ends up in the capital markets. Stocks go up and up and bond yields stay ultra low with bond prices ultra high. What remains on the balance sheets are a shit-load of IOUs.
The third round of QE was officially halted in 2014 in the USA. However, the world’s other main central banks acted in rotation – passing the baton of QE, like in a relay race – so that when the US slacked off, Japan, Britain, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of China, took over money-printing duties. And because money flies easily around the world via digital banking, a lot of that foreign money ended up in ‘sure-thing’ US capital markets (as well as their own ). Mega-tons of ‘money’ were created out of thin air around the world since the near-collapse of the system in 2008.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 8, 2017.

Jobs Report Preview: Here’s What Wall Street Expects

What a difference a year makes: last December, just as the ECB was about to shock the market with the announcement of its first 20 billion QE tapering, macroeconomic data mattered, especially since the Fed’s tightening intertia appeared to truly be data-dependent, if only for a very short period of time. Fast forward one year, when 3 rate hikes into the Fed’s “paradoxical” tightening cycle, in which much to the BIS’s shock the higher Fed Funds rates rise, the easier financial conditions get, a “dovish” December rate hike is assured, and as such Friday’s payroll report, which will probably print withint a few thousands of 200K, is completely irrelevant.
Still, to at least some headline-scanning algos, the jobs report will matter, if only so that it can respond in a knee-jerk reaction, and be stopped out by yet another group of headline-scanning algos whose only job is to make sure the first group of algos pukes their trades at a loss, regardless of what the underlying data is.
With that in mind, and with the understanding that fundamental data hasn’t really mattered since 2009, here is what Wall Street expects – and algos – will expect from tomorrow’s charade, which no matter what will send the market higher.
From RanSquawk
The BLS will release November’s Employment Situation Report at 1330 GMT (0830 EST) on Friday 8 November
After October’s bounce-back, analysts expect normalisation in the rate of payroll additions (consensus 200k) Wage growth may be buoyed by calendar effects, pushing the Y/Y rate up to 2.7% SUMMARY: Analysts expect payroll growth to ease in November; the October data was boosted by unwinding negative effects from hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, and therefore, analysts will see a slowing as more of a normalisation, rather than the beginning of a new slowdown. There may be some upside in retail hiring given the early Thanksgiving Holiday. Rounding effects may result in the rate of joblessness slipping slightly. Earnings growth is likely to be supported by calendar effects, which may push the Y/Y rate up to 2.7%, matching the pace of annualised wage growth seen in Q3.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 8, 2017.

Beware Of Fake Expectations

When you read the title of this article, I am sure you assumed this article would be all about the latest event of fake news which supposedly rocked the market this past Friday. Well, I am sorry to disappoint you.
You see, many investors have been following fake news for much longer than you realize. Well, more accurately, the news has been real, but the expectations held by analysts and investors has been fake.
As I have been presenting for quite some time now, we have seen many expectations of negative reactions to news being presented by analysts over the last two years. They have pointed to news events like Brexit, Frexit, terrorist attacks, rise in interest rates, cessation of QE, the Trump election, and many other reasons as to why the stock market will start heading south in a big way. So, while they have all pointed to real news events, their expectations have been fake.
So, maybe its time to consider that fake news and fake expectations have potentially been hurting investors these last few years!?
And, rather than maintaining fake expectations about how the next news event is going to ’cause’ a move in the market, at some point, investors may have to accept that the substance of these news events do not cause anything. Rather, it is the investor reaction to the news events which cause movements in the market. And, investor reactions are driven by investor sentiment.
When investor sentiment is positive, seemingly negative news events are discounted (terrorist attacks, North Korea, rising interest rates, cessation of QE, etc.) as the market continues on its northern trajectory. However, as the market completes its natural path of progression, we reach a point at which it is time we can begin to expect that investor sentiment has reached a pinnacle, and will likely turn south for a time.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Wednesday, 6 December 2017.

Fed Tightens, ‘and so far, Nothing Has Blown Up’

Gundlach frets about bonds during QE unwind, rate hikes, tax cuts, and rising deficits. ‘A tax cut will reduce revenue and it will grow the deficit and therefore, it will probably grow bond supply, and perhaps boost economic growth,’ DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said on an investor webcast on Tuesday. And if it does, ‘it is going to be bond unfriendly.’
And possibly in a big way.
It’s a ‘strange environment’ for cutting corporate taxes as the economy is already in its eighth year of expansion, he said, according to Reuters, which reported the webcast. He reiterated his prediction that the 10-year Treasury yield could reach 6% over the next ‘four years or so.’
Let that sink in for a moment. The last time the 10-year Treasury yield was at 6% (on the way down) was in August 2000! Four years from now, 6% would be a two-decade high-water mark.

This post was published at Wolf Street on Dec 5, 2017.

Three Years Ago QE, Last Year It Was China, Now It’s Taxes

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported last week that the official manufacturing PMI for that country rose from 51.6 in October to 51.8 in November. Since ‘analysts’ were expecting 51.4 (Reuters poll of Economists) it was taken as a positive sign. The same was largely true for the official non-manufacturing PMI, rising like its counterpart here from 54.3 the month prior to 54.8 last month.
None of these results, however, are meaningfully different from each other. Rather than indicate any improvement, they actually suggest quite the opposite. According to the PMI’s, China’s economy isn’t falling off but it isn’t accelerating, either. The latter is what really matters, and here in the sentiment data marks the best case for the Chinese.
On the manufacturing side, the headline index is supported almost entirely by the reported experience of China’s biggest firms (many state-owned of one variety or another). The PMI for this size category has been consistently above the overall index, though importantly remaining almost at the same level going back to the latter half of last year.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on December 4, 2017.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen Urges Congress to Monitor U.S. Debt As She Steps Down (NOW A Warning??)

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Snake Hole Lounge. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s final speech to Congress (Joint Economic Commitee) reminded me of the scene in the movie Death Becomes Her where Meryl Streep swallows a magic potion and Isabella Rosselini then says ‘Now a warning.’
Yes, Yellen warned Congress that they should monitor the US debt load, now at $20.6 trillion, up from $9.5 trillion in Q2 2008. She also called on Congress to adopt policies that will promote investment, education and infrastructure spending.
Yes, US public debt outstanding has more than doubled since Team Bernanke/Yellen began quantitative easing (QE) back in September 2008.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on December 4, 2017.

It’s More Than Just The Absence of Acceleration, It’s The Synchronization Where There Should Be None

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Alhambra Investments. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
According to the latest ECB figures, as of yesterday total ‘liquidity’ added to the European banking system for that central bank’s ongoing monetary ‘stimulus’ was just shy of 2 trillion. The outstanding balance in the core current account (reserves) held on behalf of the banking system was 1.296 trillion. In the deposit account, banks are holding 686 billion at -40 bps in ‘yield.’
To create all these euro-denominated numbers, the European Central Bank through its constituent National Central Banks (NCB) has purchased 2.21 trillion through its three main active LSAP’s (Large Scale Asset Purchases): the PSPP, or QE, which buys up sovereign bonds and is the reason for running them through the NCB’s (out of original concern exactly who would bear any default risk); the CBPP3, or the third time the ECB has bought covered bonds from banks; and the Corporate Sector Purchase Program which is self-explanatory.
The numbers given above don’t appear to balance because of the way all this stuff is accounted for. The NCB transactions of QE and other material operations actually subtract from the ECB’s asset side because it isn’t doing them, becoming instead -1.21trillion in so far accumulated autonomous factors. On the other side, the liability side of the simple balance sheet, there are outstanding 769 billion in normal liquidity operations (OMO) at the MRO.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Jeffrey P. Snider ‘ November 30, 2017.

The ECB Comes Clean On Rising Rates and the Coming Systemic Reset

Remember how the Fed, ECB and others all claimed ZIRP and QE were about generating economic growth, making mortgages more affordable, and helping consumers?
Well, that was a gigantic lie. The truth is that every major policy employed by Central Banks since 2008 have been about one thing…
Maintaining the bond bubble.
Governments around the world have used the bubble in bonds to finance their bloated budgets. If interest rates were anywhere NEAR normal levels, most countries would lurch towards default in a matter of weeks.
If you think this is conspiracy theory, consider that the European Central Bank openly admitted this in its semi-annual Financial Stability Review this week:
Even so, [the ECB] said that ‘higher interest rates may trigger concerns about sovereigns’ debt-servicing capacity,’ and noted that ‘distrust in mainstream political parties continues to rise, leading to fragmentation of the political landscape away from the established consensus.’

This post was published at GoldSeek on 30 November 2017.

21/11/17: ECB loads up on pre-Christmas sales of junk

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner posted earlier today the latest data on ECB’s balance sheet. Despite focusing its attention on unwinding the QE in the medium term future, Frankfurt continues to ramp up its purchases of euro area debt. Amidst booming euro area economic growth, total assets held by the ECB rose by another 24.1 billion in October, hitting a fresh life-time high of 4.4119 trillion.
***
Thus, currently, ECB balance sheet amounts to 40.9% of Eurozone GDP. The ‘market economy’ of neoliberal euro area is now increasingly looking more and more like some sort of a corporatist paradise. On top of ECB holdings, euro area government expenditures this year are running at around 47.47% of GDP, accord to the IMF, while Government debt levels are at 87.37% of GDP. General government net borrowing stands at 1.276% of GDP, while, thanks to the ECB buying up government debt, primary net balance is in surplus of 0.589% of GDP.

This post was published at True Economics on Tuesday, November 21, 2017.

Doug Noland: Not Clear What That Means”

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Credit Bubble Bulletin . To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
November 15 – Bloomberg (Nishant Kumar and Suzy Waite): ‘Hedge-fund manager David Einhorn said the problems that caused the global financial crisis a decade ago still haven’t been resolved. ‘Have we learned our lesson? It depends what the lesson was…’ Einhorn said he identified several issues at the time of the crisis, including the fact that institutions that could have gone under were deemed too big to fail. The scarcity of major credit-rating agencies was and remains a factor, Einhorn said, while problems in the derivatives market ‘could have been dealt with differently.’ And in the ‘so-called structured-credit market, risk was transferred, but not really being transferred, and not properly valued.’ ‘If you took all of the obvious problems from the financial crisis, we kind of solved none of them,’ Einhorn said… Instead, the world ‘went the bailout route.’ ‘We sweep as much under the rug as we can and move on as quickly as we can,’ he said.’
October 12 – ANSA: ‘European Central Bank President Mario Draghi defended quantitative easing at a conference with former Fed chief Ben Bernanke, saying the policy had helped create seven million jobs in four years. Bernanke chided the idea that QE distorted the markets, saying ‘It’s not clear what that means’.’
Once you provide a benefit it’s just very difficult to take it way. This sure seems to have become a bigger and more complex issue than it had been in the past. Taking away benefits is certainly front and center in contentious Washington with tax and healthcare reform. It is fundamental to the dilemma confronting central bankers these days.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on November 18, 2017.

“We Have Reached A Turning Point”: Trader Explains Why Today’s CPI Could Send Equities Reeling

From the latest Macro View by Bloomberg commentator and former Lehman trader, Mark Cudmore
Equities Must Fear CPI Now the Fed Put Era Is Over
A surprise in either direction from today’s U. S. consumer price index print is likely to hurt global stocks.
For many years, in the wake of QE, we became used to markets where ‘good data is good for equities and bad data is good for equities.’ The logic was that bad data implied a greater likelihood more liquidity would be pumped into the system, whereas good data inspired confidence that the economic recovery was on track.
Today might mark a turning point where we more frequently trade the opposite dynamic. The Fed has fought so hard to convince investors that the economy can cope with hikes and balance-sheet reduction that it may have boxed itself into a corner. It can’t retreat from its policy path without seriously undermining its credibility.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 15, 2017.