• Tag Archives FOMC
  • The Federal Reserve’s Unspoken Truth

    Originally posted at Briefing.com
    The Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement has generated a lot of opinions about its implications for the capital markets. What it didn’t generate is a lot of movement in the stock market.
    The September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was a two-day affair that concluded on September 20 with the issuance of an updated policy directive, the release of updated economic and policy rate projections, an announcement that the Federal Reserve will start its balance sheet normalization process in October, and a press conference by Fed Chair Yellen to discuss it all.
    Check out Interview: Louise Yamada on Stocks, Tech, and Interest Rates
    There was a whole lot of information to digest. The key talking points from the Fed Day bonanza included the following:
    The target range for the fed funds rate was left unchanged at 1.00% to 1.25%. The vote was unanimous. The Federal Reserve said it will start its balance sheet normalization process in October in accord with the framework laid out in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 09/22/2017.


  • Fed’s Kaplan Makes A Stark Admission: Equilibrium Rate May Be As Low As 0.25%

    As we have hammered away at for years, “the math doesn’t work”, and it appears The Fed just admitted it.
    In a stunning admission that i) US economic potential is lower than consensus assumes and ii) that the Fed is finally considering the gargantuan US debt load in its interest rate calculations, moments ago the Fed’s Kaplan said something very surprising:
    KAPLAN SAYS NEUTRAL RATE MAY BE AS LOW AS 2.25 PCT, LEAVING FED “NOT AS ACCOMMODATIVE AS PEOPLE THINK” Another way of saying this is that r-star, or the equilibrium real interest rate of the US (calculated as the neutral rate less the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target), is a paltry 0.25%.
    What Kaplan effectively said, is that with slow secular economic growth and ‘fast’ debt growth, there’s only so much higher-rate pain America can take before something snaps and as that debt load soars and economic growth slumbers so the long-term real ‘equilibrium’ interest rate is tamped down. It also would explain why the curve has collapsed as rapidly as it did after the Wednesday FOMC meeting, a move which was a clear collective scream of “policy error” from the market.
    This should not come as a surprise. As we showed back in December 2015, in “The Blindingly Simple Reason Why The Fed Is About To Engage In Policy Error“, when calculating r-star, for a country with total debt to GDP of 350%…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 22, 2017.


  • Fed QT Stocks, Gold Impact

    This week’s landmark Federal Open Market Committee decision to launch quantitative tightening is one of the most-important and most-consequential actions in the Federal Reserve’s entire 104-year history. QT changes everything for world financial markets levitated by years of quantitative easing. The advent of the QT era has enormous implications for stock markets and gold that all investors need to understand.
    This week’s FOMC decision to birth QT in early October certainly wasn’t a surprise. To the Fed’s credit, this unprecedented paradigm shift had been well-telegraphed. Back at its mid-June meeting, the FOMC warned ‘The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year’. Its usual FOMC statement was accompanied by an addendum explaining how QT would likely unfold.
    That mid-June trial balloon didn’t tank stock markets, so this week the FOMC decided to implement it with no changes. The FOMC’s new statement from Wednesday declared, ‘In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.’ And thus the long-feared QT era is now upon us.
    The Fed is well aware of how extraordinarily risky quantitative tightening is for QE-inflated stock markets, so it is starting slow. QT is necessary to unwind the vast quantities of bonds purchased since late 2008 via QE. Back in October 2008, the US stock markets experienced their first panic in 101 years. Ironically it was that earlier 1907 panic that led to the Federal Reserve’s creation in 1913 to help prevent future panics.
    Technically a stock panic is a 20%+ stock-market plunge within two weeks. The flagship S&P 500 stock index plummeted 25.9% in just 10 trading days leading into early October 2008, which was certainly a panic-grade plunge! The extreme fear generated by that rare anomaly led the Fed itself to panic, fearing a new depression driven by the wealth effect. When stocks plummet, people get scared and slash their spending.

    This post was published at ZEAL LLC on September 22, 2017.


  • “So What Did We Learn From Yellen?”: Deutsche, Goldman Explain

    For those still unsure what Yellen’s rambling, disjointed press conference meant yesterday, or are still in shock over the Fed’s admitted confusion by the “mystery” that is inflation, here is a quick recap courtesy of Deutsche Bank and Goldman, explaining what we (probably) learned from the Fed and Yellen yesterday.
    First, here is DB’s Jim Reid:
    So what did we learn from the Fed and Yellen last night? Firstly we learnt that stopping reinvestment is a sideshow for now and that the market still cares more about the probability of a December hike and where the Fed thinks inflation is heading. Just briefly on the balance sheet run-off, they have committed to the plan from the June meeting of $10bn per month ($6bn USTs and $4bn Mortgages) with an incremental increase every 3 months until we get to $50bn. However on the rates and inflation outlook the committee and Yellen were on the hawkish side. As DB’s Peter Hooper discusses in his note, barring negative surprises in the months just ahead, the Fed is on track to raise rates once more this year and three times in 2018. Yellen recognised that inflation has been running low recently but put a higher blame on one-off factors than was perhaps anticipated. At the same time she noted that monetary policy operates with a lag and that labour market tightness will eventually push inflation up.
    The complication for markets though is that beyond 2017, the FOMC will see a huge upheaval in its membership which could easily mean current member’s thoughts are meaningless in a few months time and also that Mr Trump’s fiscal plans (or lack of them) have the ability to completely change the debate. So its difficult to read too much into the current FOMC’s forecasts. However for now December is very much live with the probability of a December rate hike moving from a shade under 50% to 64% by the US close (using Bloomberg’s calculator).

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 21, 2017.


  • Traders Yawn After Fed’s “Great Unwind”

    One day after the much anticipated Fed announcement in which Yellen unveiled the “Great Unwinding” of a decade of aggressive stimulus, it has been a mostly quiet session as the Fed’s intentions had been widely telegraphed (besides the December rate hike which now appears assured), despite a spate of other central bank announcements, most notably out of Japan and Norway, both of which kept policy unchanged as expected.
    ‘Yesterday was a momentous day – the beginning of the end of QE,’ Bhanu Baweja a cross-asset strategist at UBS, told Bloomberg TV. ‘The market for the first time is now moving closer to the dots as opposed to the dots moving towards the market. There’s more to come on that front. ‘
    Despite the excitement, S&P futures are unchanged, holding near all-time high as European and Asian shares rise in volumeless, rangebound trade, and oil retreated while the dollar edged marginally lower through the European session after yesterday’s Fed-inspired rally which sent the the dollar to a two-month high versus the yen on Thursday and sent bonds and commodities lower. Along with dollar bulls, European bank stocks cheered the coming higher interest rates which should help their profits, rising over 1.5% as a weaker euro helped the STOXX 600. Shorter-term, 2-year U. S. government bond yields steadied after hitting their highest in nine years.
    ‘Initial reaction is fairly straightforward,’ said Saxo Bank head of FX strategy John Hardy. ‘They (the Fed) still kept the December hike (signal) in there and the market is being reluctantly tugged in the direction of having to price that in.’
    The key central bank event overnight was the BoJ, which kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected with NIRP maintained at -0.10% and the 10yr yield target at around 0%. The BoJ stated that the decision on yield curve control was made by 8-1 decision in which known reflationist Kataoka dissented as he viewed that it was insufficient to meeting inflation goal by around fiscal 2019, although surprisingly he did not propose a preferred regime. BOJ head Kuroda spoke after the BoJ announcement, sticking to his usual rhetoric: he stated that the bank will not move away from its 2% inflation target although the BOJ “still have a distance to 2% price targe” and aded that buying equity ETFs was key to hitting the bank’s inflation target, resulting in some marginal weakness in JPY as he spoke, leaving USD/JPY to break past FOMC highs, and print fresh session highs through 112.70, the highest in two months, although it has since pared some losses.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 21, 2017.


  • Running Out The Clock; They Really Don’t Know What They Are Doing

    This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Alhambra Investments. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
    If it wasn’t perfectly clear before, and it really was, there is no way it isn’t now. The Fed is not in any way data dependent. The data on the economy remains in some category of insufficient, longer-term stuck much too far in the direction of atrocious. Yet, the central bank will exit anyway because there is nothing left for them here in the present.
    The economy is, in their judgment, what it is. Monetary policy, such that it is, must now turn toward tomorrow. After fighting yesterday’s battles for ten years, and losing, the FOMC knows that time is against it in more ways than one. Even in traditional terms viewing the period after the Great ‘Recession’ as somehow a business cycle, it is already a long one. Recession is inevitable, and there is no longer anything the Fed can do about the last one to make the next one more tolerable.
    So they will focus entirely on the next one before the clock strikes zero. That means getting their main interest rate levers back up near as normal as they possibly can, and the balance sheet as close to whatever and however they define neutral in this brave new world without actual growth.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on September 20, 2017.


  • FX Traders Haven’t Been This Worried About An FOMC Meeting Since Last Year

    While equity implied vols are compressed to record lows – what could possibly go wrong with unwinding a $4 trillion balance sheet? – it appears FX traders are a little less sanguine about the market’s reaction to today’s FOMC decision.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 20, 2017.


  • “Reading Between The Dots”: Is The Fed About To Admit The Market Was Right All Along

    With the Fed set to unveil its first balance sheet reduction in modern history – an event that is largely priced in – what traders are far more interested in, is what will happen to the Fed’s “dots”, where consensus anticipates no move for the 2017 dot, while the 2018 and 2019 dots could shift lower as the FOMC language turns slightly more dovish.
    How could this dot “migration” take place?
    First, as Adnan Chian observes, at least 4 Fed members need to move their 2017 dots lower to shift the median from 1 more hike in 2017 to no more hikes, i.e. December is “dead.”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 20, 2017.


  • SEPT 20/BANKERS SET UP ANOTHER GOLD AND SILVER RAID ON THE CLOWNS FOMC BALANCE RUNOF/YIELD CURVE FLATTENS WITH THE FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT INDICATING FED FAILING POLICY/DEVASTATION IN BOTH MEXICO AND P…

    GOLD: $1312.75 UP $5.25
    Silver: $17.29 UP 5 CENT(S)
    Closing access prices:
    Gold $1300.00
    silver: $17.15
    SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1316.24 DOLLARS PER OZ
    NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1312.70
    PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $3.54
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1318.43
    NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1313.85
    Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$4.58
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1314.90
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1315.20
    LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1311.30
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1311.80
    For comex gold:
    SEPTEMBER/
    NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.
    TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 54 FOR 5400 OZ (0.1679 TONNES)
    For silver:
    SEPTEMBER
    71 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
    355,000 OZ/
    Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5,881 for 29,405,000 oz

    This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on September 20, 2017.


  • This Fed is on a Mission

    QE Unwind starts Oct. 1. Rate hike in Dec. Low inflation, no problem. The two-day meeting of the FOMC ended on Wednesday with a momentous announcement that has been telegraphed for months: the QE unwind begins October 1. It marks the end of an era.
    The unwind will proceed at the pace and via the mechanisms announced at its June 14 meeting. The purpose is to shrink its balance sheet and undo what QE has done, thus reversing the purpose of QE.
    Countless people, worried about their portfolios and real estate investments, have stated with relentless persistence that the Fed would never unwind QE – that it in fact cannot afford to unwind QE.
    The vote was unanimous. Even no-rate-hike-ever and cannot-spot-housing-bubbles Neel Kashkari voted for it.
    The Fed also telegraphed that it could raise its target range for the federal funds rate a third time this year, from the current range of 1.0% to 1.25%. There is only one policy meeting with a press conference left this year: December 13, when the two-day meeting ends, remains the top candidate for the next rate hike.
    This has been the routine since the rate hike last December: The FOMC decides to change its monetary policy at every meeting with a press conference: December, March, June, today, and December.

    This post was published at Wolf Street by Wolf Richter ‘ Sep 20, 2017.


  • Stock And Financial Markets Pause Ahead Of FOMC Statement, Yellen Comments

    World stock markets were mixed in subdued trading overnight. U. S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
    Gold prices are higher in pre-U. S.-session trading, on bargain hunting, short covering and some safe-haven demand following a fiery speech by U. S. President Trump at the U. N. on Tuesday. Trump threatened to completely destroy North Korea.
    Markets have paused ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on September 20, 2017.


  • What the Fed’s New $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet Plan Means for the Stock Market Today

    This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
    The Federal Reserve is set to announce more details about unwinding its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet at today’s FOMC meeting. That will officially signal the end of the Fed’s stimulus program, going all the way back to 2007.
    The Five Top Stock Market Stories for Wednesday
    This afternoon, the U. S. Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day meeting on monetary policy. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference to announce the central bank’s plans on how it will unwind its massive balance sheet. This will be considered the official announcement by the Fed that it is ending its stimulus program that began after the financial crisis. Investors should remain cautious, as this truly is the great unknown regarding market risk. In fact, investors should read Lee Adler’s latest commentary on how the central bank’s stimulus programs work and what it means for your investments. Be sure to read Sure Money Investor.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Garrett Baldwin ‘ September 20, 2017.


  • Full Preview Of Today’s “Historic” FOMC Meeting

    It is virtually guaranteed that on Wednesday the FOMC will make history by officially announcing the Fed’s plan to begin shrinking its balance sheet through the gradual phasing out of bond reinvestments, which however in a world in which other central banks continue to pump $125 billion per month, will hardly by noticed by markets at least in the beginning.

    So aside from the start of balance sheet renormalization what else should traders expect tomorrow? Earlier today, we showed a cheat sheet from ING that broke down the various USD bullish and bearish permutations of how Yellen could still surprise the market, including the Fed’s signalling on policy rates, economic projections, a shift in the “dots”, comments on asset prices and, last but not least, whether Yellen will stay or leave when her term expires in Feb 2018.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 20, 2017.


  • Why This Time Is Different: “Fed Guidance Really Matters”

    From Bloomberg macro commentator Marc Cudmore
    Today’s Fed meeting is critical for all financial assets. A large part of the framework for how to trade the year ahead will be clarified between Wednesday’s statement, the dot plot and subsequent FOMC member speeches in coming days.
    Fed meetings are often overhyped, particularly by financial commentators. Don’t dismiss the hype this time. And because the Fed’s decision is so crucial for the path of FX and rates, every other asset hinges on the outcome by extension.
    It’s not that Fed guidance has never mattered before, but it’s vital now that we have moved beyond the data dependence that was the key theme for the last few years.
    Previously, those traders who believed in higher yields bought into the idea of inflation accelerating, whereas those who were most bullish Treasuries feared for the strength of the economy.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 20, 2017.


  • Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – FOMC Tomorrow – One Step Enough For Me

    ‘That’s just the way: a person does a low down thing, and then he don’t want to take no consequences of it. Thinks as long as he can hide it, it ain’t no disgrace.’
    Mark Twain, The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn
    “Beware the fury of a patient man.’
    John Dryden, Absalom and Achitopel
    Janet and her Merry Pranksters at the Fed will be making their latest interest rates announcement from their two day September meeting tomorrow at 2 PM.
    The SP 500 continues to dribble higher, while the tech heavy Nas 100 is now chopping sideways.
    I don’t have any short positions on at the moment. There would be an event-driven drop no doubt, although the markets managed to shake off quite a bit of ‘risky’ news at the end of last week.

    This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 19 SEPTEMBER 2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: September-19-2017

    The trend after the FOMC meet tomorrow in precious metals and currency markets will be interesting. Global shift to electric cars over the coming years can put copper and nickel prices into inertia in the next few years. Some electric cars makers are considering making the car body from Aluminum to reduce car weight. Aluminum could also get a boost from electric cars. Long term fundamentals are looking extremely bullish for industrial metals. Solar power will support silver from getting a breakdown. The real competition to the traditional metals will come from Graphene. I am a big fan of Graphene. Every day I search the net for new uses of Graphene and new processes to make Graphene. I am pretty sure Graphene will soon become a part of daily lives just like copper or aluminum.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 19 September 2017.


  • Markets Pause As FOMC Meeting Begins Tuesday

    Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U. S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
    Traders and investors worldwide are a bit cautious ahead of the U. S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting.
    Gold prices are slightly higher in pre-U. S. day session trading, on some tepid short covering following recent selling pressure that pushed prices to a three-week low on Monday.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on September 19, 2017.


  • Tech Stocks Are Tanking, Banks Panic-Bid

    After an exuberant overnight session – ignoring the slump in USDJPY and bond yields – the US cash session open appears to have triggered a wave of selling (especially in tech stocks)…
    Nasdaq is getting whacked at the open…
    ***
    Bank stocks are bid once again – back to pre-FOMC Minutes levels – as Tech rolls over…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 19, 2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: September-18-2017

    Yen as well as gold can be affected on speculation that Japanese prime minister may called a snap general election next month. But first we have the FOMC meet this week and thereafter the German general elections and later US September nonfarm payrolls on 6th October. Over the next three weeks there are market moving news and events which can change direction of metals, energies and currency markets. Just remember to have a key technical support in hand and key resistance in hand and trade accordingly. Do not drain your brain by over analyzing news and events. Life is never complicated. It is through our perception that we make life complicated. Trading and investment is also like life.
    Gold and silver fell after the USA said that it will try peaceful pressure on North Korea. In my view they are just out of solutions as the USA knows that trade sanctions will be useless without the support of Russia and China. Except Japan, none of North Korea’s neighbour’s want an armed conflict.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 18 September 2017.


  • Global Stocks Storm To New Record High Ahead Of Historic Fed Announcement

    Last week’s bullish sentiment that sent the S&P not only to a new all time highs, but a burst of last-second buying pushed above 2,500 for the first time ever, has carried through to the new week, with European and Asian shares rallying across the board, US futures again the green, and world stocks hitting a new record high on Monday ahead of a historic Fed meeting in which the FOMC is expected to announce the start of the shrinkage of its balance sheet.
    ***
    ‘The FOMC’s latest verdict will be of special interest,’ said Daniel Lenz, an analyst at DZ Bank in Frankfurt. ‘The Fed could well set the balance-sheet-reduction process in motion.’
    MSCI’s index of world stocks hit a new all-time high, adding to gains seen on Friday when Wall Street set its own record level, while Europe’s main stock index opened at a six-week high on Monday and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rose to heights not seen since late 2007.
    As DB’s Jim Reid summarizes the week’s key events, this week will be dominated by 3 of the most powerful women in the world “and I’m not talking about Daenerys Targaryen, Cersei Lannister and Sansa Stark. Instead we have our real world version with Mrs Yellen likely to announce the end of Fed reinvestment on Wednesday, Mrs Merkel firm favourite with the pollsters to see a big election win on Sunday and Mrs May set to outline her latest Brexit vision in Florence on Friday. Of the three, Mrs May’s speech is currently the least predictable but after a big week for the UK last week (GBPUSD +2.98%, GBPEUR +3.75%, 10yr Gilts +32bps, and the November hike probability from 18.4% to 64.5% according to Bloomberg’s calculator), Sterling assets are seeing some significant volatility at the moment.”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 18, 2017.