Chinese Stocks Spooked By Apple iPhone X Forecast Cut, Nikkei Boosted By BOJ Hopes

With most global markets closed for Christmas, the only overnight action was in Asia, which saw Chinese equities fall with tech stocks and names linked to Apple the worst performers after a report that Apple cut forecast iPhone X sales forecasts, while property firms surged on speculation of coming consolidation. As a result, after opening higher, the Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.5% lower on the day, the blue-chip CSI 300 Index fell 0.3%, the Shenzhen Composite Index retreated 0.9%, while the ChiNext small-cap and tech Index dropped 1.3%. The PBOC’s refusal to conduct a reverse repo for the second day did not boost the market mood.
The biggest Asian losers were Apple suppliers after the Taipei-based Economic Daily News reported that Apple has cut its sales forecast for the iPhone X by 40% from 50 million in Q1 to only 30 million. The report also noted that Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant stopped recruiting workers. Following the news, Apple supplier Lens Technology Co. dropped 8.4% to be among worst performers on the ChiNext measure; Shenzhen Sunway Communication Co. -2.2%, Luxshare Precision Industry and GoerTek both dropped at least 4%. As the table below shows, it was a sea of red for Apple suppliers.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 25, 2017.

A Nightmare Before Christmas: China Set to Launch Yuan-Denominated Oil Contracts

China wants to dethrone the dollar and it could take a step in that direction before the end of the year.
According to numerous reports, China is prepared to launch a yuan-denominated oil futures contract before Christmas. Last week, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange successfully completed a fifth round of yuan-backed oil futures testing. According to a report by RT, the organization has met all the listing requirements and is set for an official launch.
Chinese trader Yuan Quwei told Bloomberg the holiday season would be the perfect time to get oil trading in yuan off the ground.
An official launch during Christmas would be appropriate. The Western market would be quiet and allow the Shanghai exchange as well as Chinese investors to adjust in the early days.’
This could be a nightmare before Christmas for the petrodollar.

This post was published at Schiffgold on DECEMBER 19, 2017.

Market Talk- December 8, 2017

Asia started where the US markets off and confidence ahead of payrolls Friday, a government shut-down averted and hopes riding high for a BREXIT deal – which ran on the back of Sterling’s strength. For the Nikkei it felt important that we saw a 1.5% rally today taking us back to returning a roughly flat week. The GDP data certainly helped sentiment blasting the market 1.4% expectation and printing an impressive +2.5%. Yen lost a little as expected (0.4%), but that was a full big figure change and was in-place ahead of the US payrolls number. China’s economic data was also in the news with Trade figures better than forecast, resulting in a strong Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai (+1.1%) indices. Including the near 1% rally for the SENSEX also, these were strong and confident closes for Asia.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Dec 8, 2017.

Asian Market Rout Goes Global On Tech, Tax And Government Shutdown Tremors

A selloff which started in Asia, driven by renewed liquidation of Chinese and Hong Kong tech stocks and accelerated by weaker metal prices which pushed the Shanghai Composite below a key support and to 4 month lows…

… which sent the Nikkei to its worst day since March and the second worst day of the year, while the overall Asia Pac equity index slumped for the 8th day – the longest streak for two years, spread to Europe adn the rest of the world, pushing the MSCI world index lower by 0.3% as investors continued to lock in year-end gains among the best performing assets amid a broad risk-off mood. In FX, the dollar stabilized as emerging-market currency weakness meets yen gains while Treasuries and euro-area bonds gain as focus now turns to efforts to avert a U. S. government shutdown on Saturday. Euro and sterling trade heavy in average volumes while the loonie consolidates before BOC decision.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 6, 2017.

Short Sellers Are Aggravating China’s Bond Rout – Regulators AWOL (For Now)

After the Party Congress finished in October and China’s centrally planned markets were released (somewhat) from the vice-like grip which had prevailed during the proceedings, we noted the comment from Huachuang Securities that China’s bond holders may be about to get hit by ‘daggers falling from the sky’, referring to deleveraging. They were right, to some extent, as first the government bonds, then corporate bonds sold off during November. This was driven by the authorities tightening credit conditions and redemptions in Wealth Management Products, which led to some unravelling in the latter Ponzi scheme. However, as Bloomberg explains, another factor has been at work, a rise in short-selling, which might not please the central planners.
While the nation’s debt market has no official measure of short sales, analysts say a surge in bond lending has been partially fueled by rising bearish bets. A record 1.82 trillion yuan ($274 billion) of notes has been lent out this year, 18 percent more than the total for all of last year, according to clearinghouse ChinaBond. Short sellers profit from falling bond values by selling borrowed notes and buying them back after prices fall. “This creates a vicious feedback loop — when institutions think bonds will fall, they borrow and sell, causing a plunge in the securities, which then drags futures down, and thus there’s more shorting,” said Wang Wenhuan, an analyst at Huachuang Securities Co. in Shanghai. “As investors are still quite cautious, there will likely be more bond borrowing in the near term as yields climb.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 2, 2017.

Market Talk- December 1, 2017

Although Asian indices opened well on the back of a strong US session, they unfortunately could not hold the levels. Part of the reasoning was the tax Bill would be delayed and having seen the DOW blast through the psychological 24k level many were concerned this delay could threaten Thursday gains. The Nikkei was up over 1% at the open but the uncertainty depleted over half of that gain. The Yen continues to drift with the high 112’s a comfortable trading range as the US markets reopen. Exporters were again leading the way but the weaker currency was a definite factor! Both the Hang Seng and Shanghai indices opened better but the lack of confidence and weak economic data (Manufacturing PMI) added to the uncertainty.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Dec 1, 2017.

US Futures, World Stocks, Bitcoin All Hit Record Highs

US equity futures continued their push higher into record territory overnight (ES +0.1%), and the VIX is 1.5% lower and back under 10, after yesterday’s blistering surge in US stocks which jumped 1%, the most since Sept. 11, following Powell’s deregulation promise, ahead of today’s 2nd estimate of U. S. Q3 GDP which is expected to be revised up. U. S. Senate Budget Committee sent the tax bull to the full chamber to vote, and on Wednesday Senators are expected to vote to begin debating the bill. It wasn’t just the S&P: MSCI’s all-country world index was at yet another record peak after all four major Wall Street indexes notched up new highs on Tuesday. Finally, completing the trifecta of records, and the biggest mover of the overnight session by far, was bitcoin which topped $10,000 in a buying frenzy which saw it go from $9,000 to $10,000 in one day, and which is on its way to rising above $11,000 just hours later.
In macro, the dollar steadies as interbank traders and hedge funds fade its rally this week; today’s major event will be testimony by outgoing Fed chair Janet Yellen after Powell said there is no sign of an overheating economy; the euro has rallied on strong German regional inflation while pound surges on Brexit bill deal news; yields on 10-year gilts climb amid broad bond weakness; stocks rise while commodities trade mixed.
In Asia, equity markets were mixed for a bulk of the session as the early euphoria from the rally in US somewhat petered out as China woes persisted (recovered in the latter stages of trade). ASX 200 (+0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) traded higher. Korea’s KOSPI was cautious following the missile launch from North Korea, while Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) and Hang Seng (+-0.2%) initially remained dampened on continued deleveraging and regulatory concerns before paring losses into the latter stages of trade. Notably, China’s PPT emerged again with Chinese stock markets rallied in late trade, with the CSI 300 Index of mainly large-cap stocks paring a drop of as much as 1.3% to close 0.1% lower. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1%, swinging up from a 0.8% loss, with property and materials companies among the biggest gainers on the mainland. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Property Index surged 3.8%, the most since August 2016. The Shenzhen Composite Index was little changed, after a 1.2% decline, while the ChiNext gauge retreated 0.4%, paring a 1.5% loss. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was little changed as of 3 p.m. local time, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.3%Stocks in Europe gained, following equities from the U. S. to Asia higher as optimism over U. S. tax reform and euro-area economic growth overshadowed concerns about North Korea’s latest missile launch. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.8%, reaching a one-week high and testing its 50-DMA. Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC, Milan and Madrid were all up between 0.5 and 0.7% and MSCI’s all-country world index was at yet another record peak after all four major Wall Street indexes notched up new highs on Tuesday. ‘It seems to me markets are still trading on the theory that the glass is half full,’ said fund manager Hermes’ chief economist Neil Williams.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 29, 2017.

China Regulators Seek To Calm Mania For HK Stocks As Plunge Protectors Make An Appearance

The Chinese authorities’ efforts to contain leverage and reduce risk across the nation’s financial system took another step forward overnight with the ban on approvals for mutual funds that plan to allocate more than 80% of their portfolios to Hong Kong stocks. This looks like a response to surging capital flows into the territory from the mainland and the equity market euphoria in Asia, which saw the Hang Seng index cross the 30,000 mark last Wednesday for the first time in 10 years. As we noted in ‘Very Close To Irrational Exuberance: Asian Equities Break Above All-Time High As Hang Seng Clears 30,000’.
Ongoing southbound flows from the mainland exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen – via the connect trading scheme – helped to propel the rally.
The South China Morning Post has more:
China’s securities regulator will suspend the approval of new mutual funds that are meant for investing in Hong Kong’s equity market, putting a temporary cap on southbound capital that has boosted the city’s benchmark stock index to a decade high.
Chinese mutual funds which plan to allocate more than 80 per cent of their portfolio to Hong Kong-listed equities will no longer be approved for sale on the mainland, according to two state-owned funds familiar with the matter, citing an order by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Only funds that allocate less than half of their portfolio to Hong Kong will be approved, the funds said, echoing a Monday report on the China Fund website, an industry news site.
The Chinese regulator ‘s latest instruction reflects the concern that Hong Kong’s key stock benchmark has risen too much too quickly to a level that was last attained in 2007, before the global financial crisis a year later caused the Hang Seng Index to plunge 33 per cent, and wiped out billions of dollars of value.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 28, 2017.

Chinese Stock Rout Resumes As Top Fund Sees “High Probability” Of Bond Carnage

In early November, we discussed how commentators were disturbed by the sell-off in Chinese government bonds after the Party Congress, which saw yields rise to 4.0%. The anomaly was that yields in less-liquid, unsecured Chinese corporate bonds had barely moved. Some sleuthing on the part of the Wall Street Journal discovered that the most likely explanation was that redemptions in China’s shadow banking sector, especially in the infamous $4 trillion Wealth Management Products (WMP), meant that cash needed to be raised…quickly. Highly liquid government bonds were the easiest option. Furthermore, retaining the higher-yielding corporate bonds was handy in meeting the guaranteed returns in the WMP Ponzi schemes.
The relative stability in corporate bond yields was short-lived, with the Chinese bond sell-off spreading to the corporate sector as November progressed. Besides the post-Congress focus on deleveraging, the mainstream explanation was that investors were differentiating between good and bad credits ahead of more than $1 trillion of local bonds maturing in 2018-19. The spin was positive as it would lead to capital being channeled more productively.
Needless to say, this was not how we viewed it. From our perspective, it looked like the emergence of cascading sell-offs within Chinese financial markets which have been abused by excessive leverage and Ponzi characteristics. Recent plunges in Chinese equities have strengthened our conviction. Indeed, as the new trading week opened, equities were hit again, as we pointed out last night and as Bloomberg observes this morning:
After taking a breather in the wake of a battering Thursday, Chinese shares resumed their decline Monday, with some previously high-flying consumer and technology companies among the hardest hit. The CSI 300 Index of large-cap stocks was down 1.3 percent as of the mid-day trading break, with ZTE Corp. and BOE Technology Group Co. both falling more than 6 percent…’Institutional investors are choosing to cash in toward year-end as valuations are near historic highs and market sentiment deteriorated after official media targeted Moutai,’ said Shen Zhengyang, Shanghai-based analyst at Northeast Securities Co. He said the market ‘lacks steam’ for further gains.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 27, 2017.

Chinese Stocks Plummet: Shanghai Tumbles Most In 17 Months As Bond Rout Spreads

The euphoria from the year-end melt up in Europe and the US failed to inspire Chinese traders, and overnight China markets suffered sharp losses, with the Shanghai Composite plunging 2.3%, its biggest one day drop since June 2016, over growing fears that the local bond rout is getting out of control. Both the tech-heavy Chinext and the blue chip CSI 300 Index dropped over 3%, as the sharp selloff accelerated in the last hour, as Beijing’s “national team” plunge protection buyers failing to make an appearance. There were sixteen decliners for every one advancing share.
***
In addition to tech, consumer non-cyclical and health-care sectors, the hardest hit names were banks such as ICBC, Ping An Insurance and Kweichow Moutai. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slid 1 percent from a decade-high, one day after closing above 30,000.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 23, 2017.

“Very Close To Irrational Exuberance”: Asian Equities Break Above All-Time High As Hang Seng Clears 30,000

Following the new all-time high in US equities, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index broke through its November 2007 peak to make an all-time high in Wednesday’s trading session. This was something we noted could happen yesterday in ‘SocGen: Asian Equities Are So Awesome, A China Minsky Moment Is ‘Manageable’. The dollar weakened slightly after outgoing Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen, cautioned against interest rates rising too quickly in one of her last Q&As at NYU on Tuesday evening. The MSCI Emerging Market Index hit its highest level in six years and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.5% despite the lack of a net liquidity injection from the PBoC.
As Bloomberg notes, Asian stocks headed for a record close for the second time this month as the regional benchmark gauge surpassed its 2007 peak, led by energy and industrial stocks after U. S. equities continued their bounce from a two-week slide.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7 percent to 172.70 as of 1:01 p.m. in Hong Kong. The gauge passed its 2007 closing high on an intraday basis on Nov. 9 but didn’t hold the level. Japan’s Topix index climbed for a second day Wednesday, rising 0.4 percent, after its worst week in seven months. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index breached the 30,000 level for the first time in a decade, boosted by China banks and energy stocks.
‘Anyone who missed the rally probably wonders if it is too late to join the party,’ Andrew Swan, head of Asian and global emerging markets equities at BlackRock Inc., said in a statement Wednesday. ‘We don’t believe it is.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 22, 2017.

Victoria’s Secret Staff Think The Chinese Are Spying On Them

Stories about the shambolic Victoria’s Secret fashion show – which is slated to take place Tuesday Nov. 28 in Shanghai – just keep getting weirder.
Chinese bureaucrats have so far refused to cooperate with the show’s producers and planners, denying visas to Gigi Hadid, one of the show’s highest-profile models, and Katy Perry, the US pop superstar who was slated to be the musical guest.
The Communist Party has also inexplicably refused to issue press passes and visas to members of the western media who were supposed to travel to China to cover the event.
Already, we imagine the marketing brass at L Brands have learned their lesson, and that this will be both the first, and the last, VS fashion show held in China.
But as if all this weren’t enough, the New York Post is now reporting that the show’s organizers believe the Chinese government is spying on them. Which, of course, is probably true, given Chinese authorities’ well-known penchant for monitoring foreigners.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 19, 2017.

Katy Perry, Gigi Hadid Banned From China As Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show Unravels

As we reported yesterday, this year’s Victoria’s Secret fashion show, which is slated to take place in Shanghai in just two weeks, is unraveling like a cheap lace thong thanks to Chinese authorities’ refusal to cooperate with its producers, and Communist Party’s decision to deny visas to some of the biggest stars who were slated to participate in the show.
The latest update on the deteriorating state of affairs comes via the New York Post, which has reported that US pop sensation Katy Perry – who was slated to perform at the show – and supermodel Gigi Hadid, who was supposed to walk in the show, have been indefinitely banned from China.
Sources told the Post’s infamous Page Six gossip section that the ‘Roar’ singer had tried applying for a visa to enter the Communist nation, but was denied by Chinese officials.
And while she was initially informed that she’d be able to gain access, the decision was apparently reversed after the government caught wind of a controversial incident from 2015, in which Perry donned a bright, glittery dress with sunflowers on it during a performance in Taipei, the capital of Taiwan.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 18, 2017.

Market Talk- November 17, 2017

The tax reform bill passing the US House yesterday certainly added to sentiment, after great earnings releases for markets but Asia need more help for cash today. Having opened strong all core markets then drifted and even saw the Nikkei trade negative. For the week it closes down 1.3% which has broken a two month rally. The Hang Seng performed well all day closing up around +0.6% but only off-set the decline in the Shanghai (-0.5%). India traded well following Thursday’s credit upgrade eventually adding an additional +0.7% onto yesterdays gain. All eyes are still on the DXY as we approach the weekend as just below we have the 50 Day Moving Average at 93.50. Oil has bounced following comments from potential output cuts led by OPEC.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Nov 17, 2017.

Mueller Subpoena Spooks Dollar, Sends European Stocks, US Futures Lower

Yesterday’s torrid, broad-based rally looked set to continue overnight until early in the Japanese session, when the USD tumbled and dragged down with it the USDJPY, Nikkei, and US futures following a WSJ report that Robert Mueller had issued a subpoena to more than a dozen top Trump administration officials in mid October.
And as traders sit at their desks on Friday, U. S. index futures point to a lower open as European stocks fall, struggling to follow Asian equities higher as the euro strengthened at the end of a tumultuous week. Chinese stocks dropped while Indian shares and the rupee gain on Moody’s upgrade. The MSCI world equity index was up 0.1% on the day, but was heading for a 0.1% fall on the week. The dollar declined against most major peers, while Treasury yields dropped and oil rose.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index fluctuated before turning lower as much as 0.3% in brisk volumes, dropping towards the 200-DMA, although about 1% above Wednesday’s intraday low; weakness was observed in retail, mining, utilities sectors. In the past two weeks, the basic resources sector index is down 6%, oil & gas down 5.8%, autos down 4.9%, retail down 3.4%; while real estate is the only sector in green, up 0.1%. The Stoxx 600 is on track to record a weekly loss of 1.3%, adding to last week’s sell-off amid sharp rebound in euro, global equity pullback. The Euro climbed for the first time in three days after ECB President Mario Draghi said he was optimistic for wage growth in the region, although stressed the need for patience, speaking in Frankfurt. European bonds were mixed. The pound pared some of its earlier gains after comments from Brexit Secretary David Davis signaling a continued stand-off in negotiations with the European Union.
In Asia, the Nikkei 225 took its time to catch up to the WSJ report that US Special Counsel Mueller has issued a Subpoena for Russia-related documents from Trump campaign officials, although reports pointing to North Korea conducting ‘aggressive’ work on the construction of a ballistic missile submarine helped the selloff. The Japanese blue-chip index rose as much as 1.8% in early dealing, but the broad-based dollar retreat led to the index unwinding the bulk of its gains; the index finished the session up 0.2% as the yen jumped to the strongest in four-weeks. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2% with IT, healthcare and telecoms leading the way, as utilities lagged. Mainland Chinese stocks fell, with the Shanghai Comp down circa 0.5% as the PBoC’s reversel in liquidity injections (overnight net drain of 10bn yuan) did little to boost risk appetite, as Kweichou Moutai (viewed as a bellwether among Chinese blue chips) fell sharply. This left the index facing its biggest weekly loss in 3 months, while the Hang Seng rallied with IT leading the way higher. Indian stocks and the currency advanced after Moody’s Investors Service raised the nation’s credit rating.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 17, 2017.

NOV 15/A ANOTHER RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER: GOLD DOWN $5.15 AND SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/MARKETS IN ASIA CRUMBLE WHICH SET THE MOOD FOR EUROPE AND THE DOW/THE ALL IMPORTANT CPI SHOWS CONSIDERABLE ADVAN…

GOLD: $1277.7 DOWN $5.15
Silver: $16.98 DOWN 10 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1278.30
silver: $17.01`
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1289.94 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1281.20
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.39
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1292.56
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1282.40
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$10.16
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1285.70
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1285.70
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1282.20
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1282.60
For comex gold:
NOVEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 991 FOR 99,100 OZ (3.082TONNES)
For silver:
NOVEMBER
2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
10,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 874 for 4,370,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Bitcoin: BID $7121 OFFER /$7145 up $532.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN : BID $7257 OFFER: $7282 // UP $668.00(CLOSING)

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 15, 2017.

NOV 14/GOLD IS UP $4.00 DESPITE BANKER ATTEMPTS TO QUASH THE METAL/SILVER ALSO REBOUNDS/SILVER AND FINISHES UP 3 CENTS/LONG TERM BOND YIELDS FALTER/CHINESE MARKETS FALL/THE ONLY POSITIVE TODAY WA…

GOLD: $1282.85 UP $4.00
Silver: $17.08 UP 3 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1280.50
silver: $17.02
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1285.54 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1276.15
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.39
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1286.85
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1277.10
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$9.75
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1273.50
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1273.20
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1274.60
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1273.86
For comex gold:
NOVEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 991 FOR 99,100 OZ (3.082TONNES)
For silver:
NOVEMBER
2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
10,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 874 for 4,370,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 14, 2017.

China Gold Import Jan-Sep 777t. Who’s Supplying?

While the gold price is slowly crawling upward in the shadow of the current cryptocurrency boom, China continues to import huge tonnages of yellow metal. As usual, Chinese investors bought on the price dips in the past quarters, steadfastly accumulating for a rainy day. The Chinese appear to be price sensitive regarding gold, as was mentioned in the most recent World Gold Council Demand Trends report, and can also be observed by Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) premiums – going up when the gold price goes down – and by withdrawals from the vaults of the SGE which are often increasing when the price declines. Net inflow into China accounted for an estimated 777 tonnes in the first three quarters of 2017, annualized that’s 1,036 tonnes.
***
Demonstrated in the chart above Chinese gold imports and known gold demand by the Rest Of the World (ROW) add up to thousands of tonnes more than what the ROW produces from its mines. One might wonder where Chinese gold imports come from, which is why I thought it would be interesting to analyse as detailed as possible who’s supplying China. Is one country, or only the West, supplying China? Although absolute facts are difficult to cement, my conclusion is that China is supplied by a wide variety of countries on several continents this year.

This post was published at Bullion Star on 14 Nov 2017.

NOV 13/GOLD UP $4.85 AND SILVER RISES 16 CENTS/CHAOS IN ENGLAND AS THERESA MAY COULD BE OUSTED AS LEADER/TENSIONS AGAIN ESCALATE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST/GE CRASHES TODAY/

GOLD: $1278.85 UP $4.85
Silver: $17.05 UP 16 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1278.50
silver: $17.05
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1288.37 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1276.60
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $11.77
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1288.37
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1276.60
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$11.77
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1278.40
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1278.10
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1277.95
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1277.30
For comex gold:
NOVEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 20000 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 991 FOR 99,100 OZ (3.082TONNES)
For silver:
NOVEMBER
1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
5,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 872 for 4,360,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Bitcoin: BID $6729 OFFER /$6764 DOWN $308.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN CLOSING; BID $6498 OFFER: $6523 // UP $78.00

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 13, 2017.

Market Talk – November 10th, 2017

Asian cash responded to the US news of possible Tax Plan delays and we saw profit-taking and nerves for the first time in a while. Interesting that this has occurred on our November temporary pause expected. The Nikkei has returned -0.8% which has added to yesterdays decline but is falling from the 26 year high. Values were lower in morning trading but recovered much in afternoon trade. The Yen, uncharacteristically, has been content to play in a very narrow range which is a good indication that many players sit on the side-lines. Normally, we see the Yen strengthen in a flight to safety, but this sell-off feels to have less people concerned as they wait anxiously for lower prices in order to buy. China’s Shanghai index off-set the Hang Seng close with the two returning very little either way. The talk in China today was the move towards opening its market by increasing the amount of percentage available to foreign companies in JV’s. This is another stage in the creativity opening the Chinese financials markets and a move which many will welcome. Little by little these changes demonstrate their contention as the next global financial centre.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Nov 11, 2017.