• Tag Archives Oil
  • WTI/RBOB Pump’n’Dump After Gasoline Build, Production Surge

    Following API’s reported build in gasoline (and distillates), oil prices have chopped around amid Saudi headlines and OPEC jawboning, as all eyes are focused on gasoline inventories in the DOE report. An unexpedted draw in Gasoline (and Crude draw) sent prices higher initially, but another surge in production capped some of the gains and prices fell back.
    API
    Crude -2.72mm (-1.2mm exp) Cushing -1.269mm Gasoline +346k (+500k exp) Distillates +1.837mm DOE
    Crude -2.45mm (-1.2mm exp) Cushing (-579k exp) Gasoline -578k (+500k exp) Distillates +1.08mm (+500k exp)

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.


  • Gundlach Warns Flatter Curve Is “A Concern For US Economic Growth”

    Doubleline Capital founder Jeff Gundlach warned that the flattening yield curve could become a concern for US economic growth when two and three-year notes yield about the same, and the price per barrel of WTI crude oil plunges into the $30s, he said during a phone call with a Reuters reporter.
    The last time the spread between two- and three-year yields held below 10 basis points was around the time former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced the beginning of Operation Twist and then QE3 in late 2012.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.


  • JUNE 21/GOLD UP $2.40 BUT SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS/OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER CLIMBS 1400 CONTRACTS TO ALMOST 200,000 CONTRACTS (1 BILLION OZ)/HUGE SHAKEUP IN RIYADH AS SALMAN’S SON MOHAMMED BECOMES CROW…

    GOLD: $1243.40 UP $2.40
    Silver: $16.36 DOWN 4 cent(s)
    Closing access prices:
    Gold $1246.50
    silver: $16.44
    SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1255.01 DOLLARS PER OZ
    NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1245.90
    PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.11
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1255.90
    NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1245.40
    Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$10.50
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1247.05
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1246.10
    LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1242.50
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1242.80
    For comex gold:
    JUNE/
    NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 9 NOTICE(S) FOR 900 OZ.
    TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 2621 FOR 262,100 OZ (8.1524 TONNES)
    For silver:
    For silver:
    JUNE 40 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
    200,000 OZ/
    Total number of notices filed so far this month: 957 for 4,785,000 oz

    This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on June 21, 2017.


  • Global Equities Markets Weaker Amid Falling Oil, Bond Yields

    (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly lower overnight, due in part to falling crude oil prices recently and by lower world government bond market yields.
    Slumping oil prices and lower bond yields suggest inflationary price pressures will remain squelched. U. S. stock indexes are also pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
    On the world geopolitical front, Saudi Arabia has a new crown prince, in a surprise change of leadership for that country. The new prince could take a harder line on Iran, reports said.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 20, 2017.


  • Oil Bear Market Sends Global Stocks, Yields Sliding; Chinese MSCI Addition Fizzles

    In an eventful overnight session which saw a historic transition in Saudi Arabia, an unexpected Republican victory in the Georgia Special Election, China’s inclusion in the MSCI EM index and Travis Kalanick’s resignation, S&P futures continued to fall, alongside stock markets in Asia and Europe, while oil prices extended their drop despite a larger than expected draw reported by API on Tuesday. The USDJPY continued its recent slide, dropping just shy of 111, while GBPUSD tumbled as low as 1.2589, the lowest since May announced the UK election, only to reverse and recover all gains ahead of the Queen’s speech on Wednesday.
    Despite the much hyped inclusion of 222 mainland Chinese shares in the MSCI EM index starting May 2018, which will by only 0.73% to include Chinese A-shares, the Shanghai composite closed a modest 0.5% higher, as the initial euphoria fizzled following calculations that buying pressure from the MSCI shift would be muted. MSCI estimated the change, due around the middle of next year, would drive inflows of between $17 billion and $18 billion. China’s market cap is roughly $7 trillion.
    The index provider also set out a laundry list of liberalization requirements before it would consider further expansion. “We suspect that it will be a long time before this happens,” wrote analysts at Capital Economics in a note. While China’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index may ultimately rise to 40 percent or so, this rise is likely to be slow,” they added. “The upshot is that any initial boost to equities is likely to be small.”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.


  • Oil, Gold and Bitcoin

    The falling price of oil did not garner any mainstream financial media attention until today, when U. S. market participants woke up to see oil (both WTI and Brent) down nearly $2. WTI briefly dropped below $43. The falling price of oil reflects both supply and demand dynamics. Demand at the margin is declining, reflecting a contraction in global economic activity which, I believe the data shows, is accelerating. Supply, on the other hand, is rising quickly as U. S. oil producers – specifically distressed shale oil companies – crank out supply in order to generate the cash flow required to service the massive energy sector debt load.
    I am quite surprised by the rapid fall of oil (WTI basis) from the $50 level, because I concluded earlier this year that the Fed was attempting to ‘pin’ the price of oil to $50:
    The graph above is a 5-yr weekly of the WTI continuous futures contract. Oil bottomed out in early 2016 and had been trending laterally between the mid-$40’s and $55. I read an analysis in early 2016 that concluded that junk-rated shale oil companies would implode if oil remained in the low $40’s or lower for an extended period of time. Note that some of the TBTF banks who underwrote shale junk debt were stuck with unsyndicated senior bank debt (i.e. they were unable to find enough investors to relieve the banks of this financial nuclear waste). Thus, the Fed has been working to keep the price of oil levitating in the high $40’s/low $50’s, in part, to prevent financial damage to the big banks who have big exposure to shale oil debt.

    This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on June 21, 2017.


  • Gold Price Slips vs. Falling Dollar as Oil Bounces, Bank of England Split Boosts ‘Brexit-Hit’ Pound

    Gold prices held near 5-week lows against a falling US Dollar on Wednesday, trading at $1243 per ounce as commodities rallied but world stock markets extended Tuesday’s retreat in New York.
    As Brent crude oil rallied $1 per barrel from yesterday’s 7-month lows near $45, that pulled the EuroStoxx 50 index of major European shares more than 1% lower.
    The British Pound meantime rallied after a split emerged amongst senior Bank of England policymakers over holding or raising UK interest rates from the current all-time record low of 0.25% with 435 billion ($550bn) of quantitative easing bond purchases.
    Check out Global Liquidity Reaching a Tipping Point
    The Euro currency also rallied against the Dollar but held 1 cent below last week’s peak, the highest level since Donald Trump won the US presidential election last November.
    The gold price for Eurozone investors fell below 1115 per ounce, near its lowest level since January.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 06/21/2017.


  • Report: Measured for Social Progress, U.S. Is a Second-Tier Nation

    You can tell a lot about a nation by the kind of research reports it spews out monthly or quarterly. In the United States, we are bombarded with Federal government reports on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Durable Goods Orders, Retail Sales, Housing Starts and the like. If you want to know the price of gold or oil or thousands of corporate stock prices, you can get those numbers on a second by second basis on your laptop or mobile app.
    Research releases in the United States that measure how the nation is doing in the area of social progress are far fewer and less timely. You’re not going to find such data released monthly or even quarterly. Take for example, Federal studies that measure homelessness among students in public schools. The most recent research we could find from the U. S. Department of Education measured the data for the 2014-2015 school year. Clearly, it’s not something a rich nation wants to brag about. The report found that pre-K through 12th grade students in the U. S. who had experienced homelessness in the 2014-2015 school year totaled 1,263,323 – double the amount from a decade ago and a stunning 34 percent increase since the economic recovery began in the summer of 2009.

    This post was published at Wall Street On Parade on June 21, 2017.


  • WTI Plunges To 7-Month Lows – Enters Bear Market As HY Bonds Crater

    WTI Crude has entered a bear market (down over 20% from its highs) amid concerns OPEC-led output cuts won’t succeed in rebalancing the market (and not helped by the fact that Libya is pumping the most crude in 4 years).
    For the first time since Nov 2016, WTI front-month traded with a $42 handle…
    Here are eight factors that are behind the current fall in oil prices according to Arab News:
    1. High exports from OPEC: Despite the reduction in production from oil producers, the level of exports is still high as many tanker-tracking data showed. Morgan Stanley in a report on June 8 said that tanker-tracking data showed that waterborne exports increased strongly in May across the world, up by 2.2 million bpd from April and 3.3 million bpd from May 2016.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • Why The Wall Street Journal Is Wrong About The US Oil Export Boom

    The lead editorial in Friday’s Wall Street Journal was pure energy nonsense.
    ‘Lessons of the Energy Export Boom’ proclaimed that the United States is becoming the oil and gas superpower of the world. This despite the uncomfortable fact that it is also the world’s biggest importer of crude oil.
    The Journal uses statistical sleight-of-hand to argue that the U. S. only imports 25% of its oil but the average is 47% for 2017. Saudi Arabia and Russia – the real oil superpowers – import no oil.
    The piece includes the standard claptrap about how the fracking revolution has pushed break-even prices to absurdly low levels. But another article in the same newspaper on the same day described how producers are losing $0.33 on every dollar in the red hot Permian basin shale plays. Oops.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • Futures, European Stocks Flat As Oil Suddenly Tumbles; Pound Slides

    Maybe not too much of a surprise to see oil prices fall, given how much the G10 economic surprises index has collapsed in recent weeks. pic.twitter.com/aXkvHOzZMt
    — Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) June 20, 2017

    European stocks were flat after starting off strongly earlier, dragged lower by energy stocks. Asian stocks, U. S. futures little changed as oil tumbled with Brent tumbling as low as $45.85/bbl to the lowest intraday since November 30 and taking out a 38.2% Fib support, after a one-minute spike in volume to a day-high 5,208 lots just after 6am, with WTI mirroring Brent’s momentum, and falling as much as 98c to $43.22, lowest since November 14.
    As Reuters’ Jamie McGeever points out, “maybe not too much of a surprise to see oil prices fall, given how much the G10 economic surprises index has collapsed in recent weeks.”
    The pound sank for a second day, with the GBPUSD tumbling to 1.2661, alongside gilt yields as Britain central bank governor Mark Carney reversed the earlier BOE “vote split” hawkishness and said he is still worried about the impact Brexit will have on the U. K. economy and said he “now is not the time” to raise rates. Sterling weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers, and gilt yields declined as Carney said that domestic inflation pressures remain subdued. Speaking at London’s Mansion House on Tuesday, he also highlighted the weakness in the economy and the increased uncertainty as the nation formally starts talks to exit the European Union.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • Oil Plunges To November Lows On Sudden Volume Spike

    Oil dropped to the lowest in seven months, with both Brent and WTI sliding to prices not seen since November, following a burst of volume just after 6am, amid a revival in output from Libya and rising volumes of fuel held in floating storage, although today’s move was likely yet another hedge fund capitulating and liquidating long positions. As a reminder, Pierre Andurand was down 17.3% through end of May.
    Brent hit new year-to-date low at $45.85, after a one-minute burst of volume of a day-high 5,208 lots at 6:04am, taking out a 38.2% Fib support, after a one-minute spike in volume to a day-high 5,208 lots just after 6am. The move could spur a move toward the $44.66 measured support line according to Bloomberg technician Sejul Gokal.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • SWOT Analysis: Is India’s Gold Market Recovering?

    Strengths
    The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, off just 1.02 percent despite a Fed rate hike. The Fed may not be in a position to continue with multiple rate hikes. Mike McGlone, BI Commodity Strategist, points out the current situation that both crude oil futures and Treasury bond yields are falling. Since 1983, the Fed has never sustained a rate hike cycle while both crude and Treasuries are falling. Gold has risen from a three-week low as investors digest the latest rate hike and anticipate the probability of additional rate hikes, reports Bloomberg. Suki Cooper, an analyst with Standard Chartered, writes, ‘If the market starts pricing in the end to the current hiking cycle, this would remove a major headwind for gold and allow prices to breach the stubborn $1,300 threshold in a sustained move higher.’ Bloomberg reports that public sector investors increased their net gold holdings to an estimated 31,000 tons last year, an increase of 377 tons. This is the highest level since 1999. Weaknesses
    The worst performing precious metal for the week was silver with a loss of 2.90 percent. Money managers cut their net-long by about 10 percent this past week. For the second week in a row, gold traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are bearish. This is the first time survey results have indicated two-week run of bearish outlook since December. Gold futures have had the longest losing streak in three months, as investors have anticipated the Fed’s actions this week. Bullion futures for August delivery closed down for the fourth straight session earlier this week.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on Monday, 19 June 2017.


  • Global Equity Markets Firmer As Oil Stabilizes, Greece Gets Bailout Money

    (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. Crude oil prices are firmer today, which helped out the equities. Also, Greece’s creditors approved another release of bailout money for the indebted country, which assuaged European investors. U. S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
    Gold prices are modestly up in pre-U. S. market trading, on a technical and short-covering bounce from solid selling pressure seen earlier this week.
    In overnight news, Russia’s central bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points. The Russian ruble rallied on the news.
    The Bank of Japan held its regular monetary policy meeting Friday and made no major changes in its policy.
    The Euro zone’s consumer price index for May was reported down 0.1% from April and up 1.4% from a year ago. The numbers were right in line with market expectations but down from the European Central Bank’s target rate of around 2.0% annual inflation.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 16, 2017.


  • PetroDollar System In Trouble As Saudi Arabia Continues To Liquidate Foreign Exchange Reserves

    The U. S. PetroDollar system is in serious trouble as the Middle East’s largest oil producer continues to suffer as extremely low oil price devastates its financial bottom line. Saudi Arabia, the key player in the PetroDollar system, continues to liquidate its foreign exchange reserves as the current price of oil is not covering the cost to produce oil as well as finance its national budget.
    The PetroDollar system was started in the early 1970’s, after Nixon dropped the Gold-Dollar peg, by exchanging Saudi Oil for U. S. Dollars. The agreement was for the Saudi’s only to take U. S. Dollars for their oil and reinvest the surpluses in U. S. Treasuries. Thus, this allowed the U. S. Empire to continue for another 46 years, as it ran up its ENERGY CREDIT CARD.
    And run up its Energy Credit Card it did. According to the most recent statistics, the total cumulative U. S. Trade Deficit since 1971, is approximately $10.5 trillion. Now, considering the amount of U. S. net oil imports since 1971, I calculated that a little less than half of that $10.5 trillion cumulative trade deficit was for oil. So, that is one heck of a large ENERGY CREDIT CARD BALANCE.

    This post was published at SRSrocco Report on JUNE 16, 2017.


  • Quiet Start To Quad Witching: Stocks Rebound Around The Globe, BOJ Hits Yen

    Today is quad-witching opex Friday, and according to JPM, some $1.3 trillion in S&P future will expire. Traditionally quad days are associated with a rise in volatility and a surge in volumes although in light of recent vol trends and overnight markets, today may be the most boring quad-witching in recent history: global stocks have again rebounded from yesterday’s tech-driven losses as European shares rose 0.6%, wiping out the week’s losses.
    USD/JPY climbed to two-week high, pushing the Nikkei higher as the BOJ maintained its stimulus and raised its assessment of private consumption without making a reference to tapering plans, all as expected. Asian stocks were mixed with the Shanghai Composite slightly softer despite the PBOC injecting a monster net 250 billion yuan with reverse repos to alleviate seasonal liquidity squeeze, and bringing the net weekly liquidity injection to CNY 410 billion, the highest in 5 months, while weakening the CNY fixing most since May. WTI crude is up fractionally near $44.66; Dalian iron ore rises one percent. Oil rose with metals. Treasuries held losses as traders focused on Yellen hawkish tone.
    The MSCI All Country World Index was up 0.2%, and after the latest global rebound, the value of global stocks is almost equal to that of the world’s GDP, the highest such ratio since th great financial crisis, BBG reported.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 16, 2017.


  • Stock Prices Fall as Senate Passes Russia Sanctions Bill

    In Dow Jones news today, stock prices fell as the Senate passed a bill that would place new sanctions on Russia.
    Here are the numbers from Thursday for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq:
    Now here’s a closer look at today’s most important market events and stocks, plus Friday’s economic calendar.
    The Five Top Stock Market Stories for Thursday
    European finance ministers debated another round of debt relief for the embattled Greek economy and decided to offer a bailout of 8.5 billion euros ($9.5 billion). Greece’s current bailout program is the third effort by international finance leaders since the nation fell into economic calamity in 2010. Crude oil prices cratered and hit a seven-month low on news of a huge spike in U. S. gasoline inventory levels and expectations that OPEC will not be able to balance supply and demand. Crude oil prices are now off more than 12% since May 25. The WTI crude oil price today fell 0.7%. Brent crude dipped 0.2%.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 15, 2017.


  • Global Stocks Slide On Trump Probe Report, Fed Indigestion

    Is it going to be another May 17, when US stocks tumbled as concerns of a Trump impeachment over obstruction of justice and impeachment surged ahead of Comey’s tetimony?
    Overnight, S&P500 futures accelerated their decline following yesterday’s WaPo report that Special Counsel Mueller has launched a probe into potential obstruction of justice by Trump…

    … while European and Asian markets dropped dragged lower by commodities which reacted to the latest Fed rate hike, as copper dropped and oil fluctuated. The Bloomberg commodity index fell to the lowest in more than a year, pressuring miners and E&P companies which were among the big losers as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated for a second day. The dollar advanced after the Fed raised interest rates for the second time in 2017 and Yellen suggested the strength of the U. S. labor market will ultimately prevail over recent weakness in inflation, which however the bond market strongly disagrees with, sending the curve the flattest its has been since October.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 15, 2017.


  • Cuba Scrambles As Venezuela’s Oil Industry Collapses

    As Venezuela’s oil industry goes down it flames, it’s looking like it may just take Cuba down with it.
    ***
    Venezuela, once the crude powerhouse of South and Central America, is no longer able to produce enough oil to sustain its own economy, much less those of other countries. Cuba is frantically drilling in search for new reserves and reaching out for new suppliers, but there is no guarantee they’ll be able to stabilize their oil income any time soon.
    Cuba became dependent on Venezuelan oil in the 1990s, when they were sold cut-price crude in exchange for the services of skilled laborers in order to bail them out of economic collapse in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union. Currently, Cuba relies on foreign oil for more than two thirds of its daily consumption, with over 100,000 barrels of crude flowing from Venezuela every day for years. Now, quite suddenly, their dependence on Venezuelan oil has been forced to come to a bitter end.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 14, 2017.