• Tag Archives Asia
  • Oil Bear Market Sends Global Stocks, Yields Sliding; Chinese MSCI Addition Fizzles

    In an eventful overnight session which saw a historic transition in Saudi Arabia, an unexpected Republican victory in the Georgia Special Election, China’s inclusion in the MSCI EM index and Travis Kalanick’s resignation, S&P futures continued to fall, alongside stock markets in Asia and Europe, while oil prices extended their drop despite a larger than expected draw reported by API on Tuesday. The USDJPY continued its recent slide, dropping just shy of 111, while GBPUSD tumbled as low as 1.2589, the lowest since May announced the UK election, only to reverse and recover all gains ahead of the Queen’s speech on Wednesday.
    Despite the much hyped inclusion of 222 mainland Chinese shares in the MSCI EM index starting May 2018, which will by only 0.73% to include Chinese A-shares, the Shanghai composite closed a modest 0.5% higher, as the initial euphoria fizzled following calculations that buying pressure from the MSCI shift would be muted. MSCI estimated the change, due around the middle of next year, would drive inflows of between $17 billion and $18 billion. China’s market cap is roughly $7 trillion.
    The index provider also set out a laundry list of liberalization requirements before it would consider further expansion. “We suspect that it will be a long time before this happens,” wrote analysts at Capital Economics in a note. While China’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index may ultimately rise to 40 percent or so, this rise is likely to be slow,” they added. “The upshot is that any initial boost to equities is likely to be small.”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.


  • Leading The Multipolar Revolution: How Russia And China Are Creating A New World Order

    The last thirty days have shown another kind of world that is engaging in cooperation, dialogue and diplomatic efforts to resolve important issues. The meeting of the members of the Belt and Road Initiative laid the foundations for a physical and electronic connectivity among Eurasian countries, making it the backbone of sustainable and renewable trade development based on mutual cooperation. A few weeks later, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Astana outlined the necessary conditions for the success of the Chinese project, such as securing large areas of the Eurasian block and improving dialogue and trust among member states. The following AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) meeting in ROK will layout the economical necessities to finance and sustain the BRI projects.
    The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have many common features, and in many ways seem complementary. The SCO is an organization that focuses heavily on economic, political and security issues in the region, while the BRI is a collection of infrastructure projects that incorporates three-fifths of the globe and is driven by Beijing’s economic might. In this context, the Eurasian block continues to develop the following initiatives to support both the BRI and SCO mega-projects. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO) is a Moscow-based organization focusing mainly on the fight against terrorism, while the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a Beijing-based investment bank that is responsible for generating important funding for Beijing’s long-term initiatives along its maritime routes (ports and canals) and overland routes (road, bridges, railways, pipelines, industries, airports). The synergies between these initiatives find yet another point of convergence in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Together, the SCO, BRI, CTSO, AIIB, and EEU provide a compelling indication of the direction in which humanity is headed, which is to say towards integration, cooperation and peaceful development through diplomacy.
    On the other side we have the old world order made up of the IMF, the World Bank, the European Union, the UN, NATO, the WTO, with Washington being the ringmaster at the center of this vision of a world order. It is therefore not surprising that Washington should look askance at these Eurasian initiatives that threaten to deny its central and commanding role in the global order in favor of a greater say by Moscow, Beijing, New Delhi and even Tehran.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.


  • Caterpillar Retail Sales Rise Most In 54 Months

    Caterpillar’s great depression ended three months ago, when in March following a record 51 consecutive months of annual declines, its global retail sales posted the first, if modest, monthly increase growing by 1% on the back of a surge in Chinese and other Asia/Pac sales. Since then the trend has accelerated, and in May the company reported that Asia Pac sales soared by 49%, the highest since April 2011, while maybe more notably, retail sales in the US rose by 2%, for the first time since May 2015.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • Hong Kong Warns: Its Housing Bubble is a ‘Dangerous Situation’

    The HK financial system is ‘very strong’ and ‘can withstand an adjustment in the property market.’
    The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. Hong Kong’s monetary policy is follows the Fed’s monetary policy. The Fed has embarked on a tightening cycle, raising rates four times so far. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has followed each time. Last week, it raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%. This will have consequences for the most expensive and ludicrously inflated housing bubble in the world.
    ‘We have to warn our people about the dangerous situation of the property market at the moment,’ Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan told Bloomberg TV.
    ‘No one can tell how deep the adjustment will be or what is the appropriate level of adjustment because it is market force,’ he said. ‘It is not up to the government to dictate, but I think it is important for people to recognize it is risky.’
    But he doesn’t expect a repeat of what happened when Hong Kong’s prior housing bubble imploded during the Asian Financial Crisis.

    This post was published at Wolf Street on Jun 20, 2017.


  • Argentina issues 100-year bond. What could possibly go wrong?

    Apparently while I was in the air yesterday flying between Asia and Europe, the financial system proved once again that it believes in magic beans.
    The latest absurdity is that the government of Argentina sold $2.75 billion worth of bonds yesterday afternoon.
    It’s not strange or unusual for a government to sell bonds; it happens multiple times across the world nearly every single day of the year.
    What’s totally insane about yesterday’s bond sale in Argentina, though, is the duration of these particular bonds.
    Remember that a bond is similar to a loan; as an investor, you’re basically loaning money to whichever government issues the bond.
    And, like a loan, a bond has a maturity date – the date at which the government is supposed to pay you back the ‘face value’ of the bond.
    often have a 3-7 year term. Student loans can easily go 10 or 15 years. A home mortgage can last 30 years.
    It’s the same with government bonds, which often have a term up to 30 years.

    This post was published at Sovereign Man on June 20, 2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: June-20-2017

    Factors which can affect markets
    It should be a technical trade as there is no news. Geopolitical risk will be closely watched. This is the last week before Ramzan ends. Over the past decade there is a big spike in smuggled gold in India after Ramzan. Physical gold premiums can fall after two weeks. (unless gold prices continue to fall). Investors are happy due to continuation of bullish trend in stock markets.
    Trend is down for gold and silver. One needs to look for signs of trend reversal.
    COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2017 – current price $1247.01
    Bullish over $1253.20 with $1260.20 and $1268.70 as price target
    Bearish below $1249.10 with $1244.40 and $1237.10 as price target.
    Neutral Zone between: $1249.10-$1253.20

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 20 June 2017.


  • Futures, European Stocks Flat As Oil Suddenly Tumbles; Pound Slides

    Maybe not too much of a surprise to see oil prices fall, given how much the G10 economic surprises index has collapsed in recent weeks. pic.twitter.com/aXkvHOzZMt
    — Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) June 20, 2017

    European stocks were flat after starting off strongly earlier, dragged lower by energy stocks. Asian stocks, U. S. futures little changed as oil tumbled with Brent tumbling as low as $45.85/bbl to the lowest intraday since November 30 and taking out a 38.2% Fib support, after a one-minute spike in volume to a day-high 5,208 lots just after 6am, with WTI mirroring Brent’s momentum, and falling as much as 98c to $43.22, lowest since November 14.
    As Reuters’ Jamie McGeever points out, “maybe not too much of a surprise to see oil prices fall, given how much the G10 economic surprises index has collapsed in recent weeks.”
    The pound sank for a second day, with the GBPUSD tumbling to 1.2661, alongside gilt yields as Britain central bank governor Mark Carney reversed the earlier BOE “vote split” hawkishness and said he is still worried about the impact Brexit will have on the U. K. economy and said he “now is not the time” to raise rates. Sterling weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers, and gilt yields declined as Carney said that domestic inflation pressures remain subdued. Speaking at London’s Mansion House on Tuesday, he also highlighted the weakness in the economy and the increased uncertainty as the nation formally starts talks to exit the European Union.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • After Brexit: Germany and the EU Will Look to Asia

    Britain’s general election went horribly wrong, with the Conservatives forced into a putative coalition with the Democratic Ulster Party. Theresa May’s failure to secure a clear majority has provoked indignation, bitterness, and widespread pessimism. The purpose of this article is not to contribute to this outcry, but to take a more measured view of the situation faced by the British government with regards to Brexit, and the consequences for Europe. In the interests of an international readership, this article will only summarise briefly the current situation in the UK before looking at the broader European and geopolitical consequences.
    While it would be wrong to dismiss the precariousness of Mrs. May’s position, there are some positive factors, which are being generally ignored. Most importantly, Brexit negotiations are due to start next week. These negotiations matter more than anything else on the government’s agenda, so are a unifying force. Mrs. May recognises this, which is why she has brought Michael Gove back into the cabinet (as Environment Secretary), and Steve Baker as a minister in the Brexit ministry. Gove is a committed Brexiteer with a track record as a capable minister, and Baker was the motivating influence behind the parliamentary campaign for Brexit.
    All ambitions to replace Mrs May are being put to one side in favour of Brexit. This message of unity has been endorsed by Conservative MPs. They will be regularly updated with developments in future, to keep them onside. There are already signs that the government is reaching out to the opposition as well. This has been read as a separate negotiation, potentially leading to a softer Brexit. While it is dangerous to prejudge the outcome, this is probably incorrect: the purpose is more likely to keep the Labour Party leadership fully briefed on both progress and the rationale behind negotiation tactics.

    This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on June 20, 2017.


  • Chapter 18: Production and Distribution

    Christian Economics: Teacher’s Edition
    About that time there arose no little disturbance concerning the Way. For a man named Demetrius, a silversmith, who made silver shrines of Artemis [Diana], brought no little business to the craftsmen. These he gathered together, with the workmen in similar trades, and said, ‘Men, you know that from this business we have our wealth. And you see and hear that not only in Ephesus but in almost all of Asia this Paul has persuaded and turned away a great many people, saying that gods made with hands are not gods. And there is danger not only that this trade of ours may come into disrepute but also that the temple of the great goddess Artemis may be counted as nothing, and that she may even be deposed from her magnificence, she whom all Asia and the world worship.’ When they heard this they were enraged and were crying out, ‘Great is Artemis of the Ephesians!’ (Luke 19:23 – 28)
    AnalysisDemetrius understood the economic law of supply and demand. He understood that demand for his silver shrines was based on widespread faith in the supernatural power of Artemis-Diana, the goddess associated with the city of Ephesus. The temple was known across the Mediterranean. It is numbered among the legendary seven wonders of the world. This demand for household shrines, meaning idols, was under assault from Paul, who was preaching salvation through faith in Jesus Christ, who was God incarnate. If the new faith spread, it would put Demetrius out of business.
    He called together other craftsmen who supplied him with products. He warned them that their businesses were at risk, just as his was. He sold to final users. He bought support materials from these craftsmen. He understood that maintaining consumer demand was the key. If the producers were not successful in persuading buyers to buy the products of their hands, they would have to go into another market. They would still be competent craftsmen, but they would have to leave their profitable niche markets associated with the goddess, and produce silver goods that were less in demand. Their income would necessarily fall.
    Demetrius understood that consumers direct production, not producers. Consumers own money. They can buy almost anything that is for sale. Producers must subordinate their skills to consumers if they expect to get paid.

    This post was published at Gary North on June 19, 2017.


  • FANG Falters As Best-Performing Tech Fund Manager Warns “When Things Are This Elevated, It’s Best To Be Cautious”

    Joshua K. Spencer has managed his T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund to become the best-performing mutual fund in the past five years with big bets on Amazon and Tesla is now selling some big winners… and it’s sending FANTASY stocks lower…
    FANG stocks are rolling over…
    And FANTASIA (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Alphabet, SalesForce, Intel, and Apple) stocks are falling back from their 50% retracement…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 19, 2017.


  • Quiet Start To Quad Witching: Stocks Rebound Around The Globe, BOJ Hits Yen

    Today is quad-witching opex Friday, and according to JPM, some $1.3 trillion in S&P future will expire. Traditionally quad days are associated with a rise in volatility and a surge in volumes although in light of recent vol trends and overnight markets, today may be the most boring quad-witching in recent history: global stocks have again rebounded from yesterday’s tech-driven losses as European shares rose 0.6%, wiping out the week’s losses.
    USD/JPY climbed to two-week high, pushing the Nikkei higher as the BOJ maintained its stimulus and raised its assessment of private consumption without making a reference to tapering plans, all as expected. Asian stocks were mixed with the Shanghai Composite slightly softer despite the PBOC injecting a monster net 250 billion yuan with reverse repos to alleviate seasonal liquidity squeeze, and bringing the net weekly liquidity injection to CNY 410 billion, the highest in 5 months, while weakening the CNY fixing most since May. WTI crude is up fractionally near $44.66; Dalian iron ore rises one percent. Oil rose with metals. Treasuries held losses as traders focused on Yellen hawkish tone.
    The MSCI All Country World Index was up 0.2%, and after the latest global rebound, the value of global stocks is almost equal to that of the world’s GDP, the highest such ratio since th great financial crisis, BBG reported.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 16, 2017.


  • Brexit, Germany and Asia

    Britain’s general election went horribly wrong, with the Conservatives forced into a putative coalition with the Democratic Ulster Party. Theresa May’s failure to secure a clear majority has provoked indignation, bitterness, and widespread pessimism. The purpose of this article is not to contribute to this outcry, but to take a more measured view of the situation faced by the British government with regards to Brexit, and the consequences for Europe. In the interests of an international readership, this article will only summarise briefly the current situation in the UK before looking at the broader European and geopolitical consequences.
    While it would be wrong to dismiss the precariousness of Mrs May’s position, there are some positive factors, which are being generally ignored. Most importantly, Brexit negotiations are due to start next week. These negotiations matter more than anything else on the government’s agenda, so are a unifying force. Mrs May recognises this, which is why she has brought Michael Gove back into the cabinet (as Environment Secretary), and Steve Baker as a minister in the Brexit ministry. Gove is a committed Brexiteer with a track record as a capable minister, and Baker was the motivating influence behind the parliamentary campaign for Brexit.

    This post was published at GoldMoney on JUNE 15, 2017.


  • Global Stocks Slide On Trump Probe Report, Fed Indigestion

    Is it going to be another May 17, when US stocks tumbled as concerns of a Trump impeachment over obstruction of justice and impeachment surged ahead of Comey’s tetimony?
    Overnight, S&P500 futures accelerated their decline following yesterday’s WaPo report that Special Counsel Mueller has launched a probe into potential obstruction of justice by Trump…

    … while European and Asian markets dropped dragged lower by commodities which reacted to the latest Fed rate hike, as copper dropped and oil fluctuated. The Bloomberg commodity index fell to the lowest in more than a year, pressuring miners and E&P companies which were among the big losers as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated for a second day. The dollar advanced after the Fed raised interest rates for the second time in 2017 and Yellen suggested the strength of the U. S. labor market will ultimately prevail over recent weakness in inflation, which however the bond market strongly disagrees with, sending the curve the flattest its has been since October.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 15, 2017.


  • EU Wants to Order All Euro Trading Moved from London to Paris

    The European Union is preparing the legal basis to take over London’s extensive trading business with euro derivatives. This is just another complete failure of bureaucrats to comprehenmd market function. Perhaps they should also outlaw euro trading in the USA and Asia. That would be real smart. Then they can all sit down and play cards with euro themselves and guarantee it will never be anything to anyone else no less convertible worldwide.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Jun 15, 2017.


  • “FOMC Drift” In Full Effect As Global Stocks Rise; S&P Futures Hit New Record; Oil Slides

    With last Friday’s “tech wreck” now a distant memory, this morning the “FOMC Drift” described yesterday, which “guarantees” higher stock prices and a lower dollar heading into the Fed announcement is in full effect, with European and Asian stocks rising for a second day, led by rebounding tech shares, while S&P futures are modestly in the green and stocks on Wall Streets hit a record high overnight. And as the “FOMC Drift” also expected, the dollar has weakened for a third day with Treasuries rising, while oil fell after the latest IEA world forecast cut its global demand forecast while boosting output expectations.

    The MSCI All-Country World index was up 0.1% and has remained stuck in a tight range this month. European shares headed for the highest in more than a week as companies including ASML and Hexagon (on M&A speculation) led the tech share revival in the region. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.6%, building on a 0.6% increase the day before. Apart from technology sector, European equity markets supported by continued pick-up in industrial production which helps construction stocks.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 14, 2017.


  • Global Markets Rebound As Tech Rout Ends; Sterling Rises

    As the Fed begins its two-day meeting, global stocks have recovered their footing and European shares rise, led by a bounce in tech stocks as last Friday’s global selloff that started in the sector shows signs of abating. Asian stocks and U. S. futures gain as investors turn their attention to today’s Jeff Sessions testimony as well as tomorrow’s barrage of macro data including Yellen, CPI and retail sales.

    It has been a risk-on session globally as the tech rout ended and technology stocks rebound from recent weakness and amid a lack of negative fundamental catalysts. European equity markets open higher with technology sector leading, travel stocks also well supported. Bund futures pushed lower, with supply pressure also coming from 10y DSL auction. Gilts sell-off after higher than expected U. K. CPI, short sterling curve bear steepens aggressively. USD broadly weakens across G-10 except for USD/JPY which is supported by lift in EUR/JPY and general risk sentiment. SEK spikes higher after strong domestic CPI data, NOK rallies in tandem after bullish domestic growth survey.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 13, 2017.


  • JPM: More “Tech Wreck” Pain Coming As “A Lot Of Lazy Money Was Chasing Momentum”

    Over the weekend, Goldman – whose “FAAMG” report was one of the catalysts to the Friday “tech wreck” rotation out of tech/growth/momentum and into value/energy – warned that the pain may not be over, simply because the outperformance of strong balance sheet companies – usually tech-linked names that have little or no debt and substantial cash flow – in a 10%+ equity market rally is rare; occurring in only 5% of six-month stretches in the last 30 years, and warning that “the last such notable episode was in 2000, at the Tech Bubble peak.”
    This morning it was JPM’s turn to opine on Friday’s events, only not on the cause of the mauling, but why we got to where we are. As JPM’s macro strategist Adam Crisafuli writes, “tech will remain under pressure – the space has become overcrowded w/a lot of lazy/complacent money chasing momentum and these weak hands can be quick to exit – that departure process usually takes longer than just a few days.”
    Here is his full note.
    What’s happening this morning? Stocks fell pretty much throughout Asia and prices are weak in Europe too. The US futures are down ~6 points. US TSY yields are flattish while 10yr yields are down in France and Italy following weekend political developments (the UK political situation remains very fluid although this really isn’t impacting anything beyond the shores of that country). Crude has a small bid following some encouraging news out of Qatar (Qatar remains committed to the production agreement and Kuwait is hopeful on a resolution to the current regional friction).

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 12, 2017.


  • “Tech Wreck” Goes Global Dragging Worldwide Markets Lower; Cable, USDJPY Slide

    First the bad news: following Friday’s “tech wreck” European equity markets have opened lower, with the Stoxx 600 sliding 0.9% and back under the 50DMA for the first time since December, dragged by selloff in tech shares, mirroring Asian markets as Friday’s “FAAMG” volatility in U. S. markets spreads globally, battering shares from South Korea to the Netherlands. European banks lag as the Spanish regulator stepped in to prevent another bank collapse, this time of LiberBank which we profiled yesterday, by banning short-selling in the regional commercial bank to mitigate Popular-related contagion.
    Samsung Electronics, ASML Holding and Tencent Holdings led declines in Europe and Asia, dragging down benchmark indexes according to Bloomberg. U. S. stock futures, which ignored Friday’s tech move, also fell as markets continue to digest the Nasdaq 100’s plunge on Friday. Europe’s tech index fell as much as 2.8% to put it on track for its biggest one-day loss since October. The index had reached a 15-year high earlier this month and has soared around 40 percent over the last year

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 12, 2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: June-09-2017

    It will be either boom or bust for gold, silver and crude oil in the next one week. By next Friday either bulls or bears will rest in peace. There will be nothing in between. Short term key technical supports need to be upheld to test medium term resistances. Key supports for gold, silver and crude oil are $1262, $1698 and $44.30 they need to trade over these prices to continue their bullish zone.
    UK elections are over. It is impact can be felt till Monday. There after traders will position themselves for FOMC meet. A hung UK parliament can result in postponement of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve as they will prefer to reduce currency market volatility.
    Ousted FBI chief James Comey and President Donald Trump accused each other of lying about their private encounters in the wake of dramatic Senate testimony that centered on whether the president sought to quash part of a federal probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 9 June 2017.


  • Chinese gold demand falling, not rising — Lawrie Williams

    One measure of Chinese gold demand which we follow is the level of gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange. With the publication today of the figure for May of 138.08 tonnes it appears that withdrawals to date this year are marginally down on those of a year ago – and substantially below the record seen in 2015. This is contrary to some other reports which suggest Chinese gold demand is stronger this year than last and may again be approaching record level.
    Even though SGE gold withdrawals may be down on 2016 and 2015, though, they do remain substantial by world levels, being equivalent to around 60% plus of all global new mined gold, and with Indian demand as represented by imports making a strong recovery this year (some reckon the annual Indian total may reach 1,000 tonnes again), these two nations alone will account for around 90% of all new mined gold – and gold flows into Asia as a whole, particularly if one adds in smuggled gold into India which some estimates put at over 200 tonnes, look like exceeding the global new mined total alone.
    With the major gold ETFs adding to their gold tonnage totals so far this year, and taking into account gold consumption throughout the rest of the world – notably in Europe – then we could be heading for a substantial undersupply of new physical gold which, logically, should drive the gold price higher. Scrap supply will probably make up much of this balance, but the major analytical consultancies see this as continuing to drop which should be a positive for gold’s fundamentals.

    This post was published at Sharps Pixley