• Tag Archives Asia
  • Gold Bullion Fails to Recover $1300 Even as Dollar Retreats Post-Fed, Kim + Trump Trade Insults

    Gold bullion rallied almost $10 per ounce on Friday from yesterday’s 4-week lows against the Dollar but failed to recover what analysts called the “key pivot” of $1300 despite claims of safe-haven buying after Pyongyang threatened to test a nuclear bomb over the Pacific Ocean.
    The Yen rose faster versus the Dollar, erasing last week’s 0.7% gain in gold for Japanese investors, as Kim Jong-un – leader of the regime in neighboring North Korea – called US President Trump “deranged”, and Trump called Kim a “madman”.
    “Chinese interest was once again prevalent to underpin the early session bid,” says one Asian bullion desk.
    Ratings agency S&P today downgraded China‘s sovereign debt one notch to A+, saying that credit growth remains strong and “deleveraging is likely to be [too] gradual.”
    This was the ” wrong decision” Beijing’s Finance Ministry replied.
    Chinese gold premiums, over and above the global reference rate of London prices, held Friday at $7 per ounce, still below the typical incentive for new imports of $9-10 per ounce.
    After India’s gold bullion imports tripled from a year ago to $15 billion-worth in April-August, “We don’t favor a blanket restriction on gold imports,” the Economic Times today quotes a Commerce Department official, “[because] it may involve disputes in the World Trade Organisation.”

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 09/22/2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: September-22-2017

    Once again North Korean risk is supporting gold. Today and Monday there is not much US economic data releases. One needs to look for signs of weekend profit taking in everything. Hedge funds have already taken positions for next quarter. Retail traders will take positions for the next quarter from today and till next week. I reiterate that Asian physical demand and premiums on physical will be the key to price moves. A subdued demand in Asia can result in another wave of sell off in precious metals and base metals.
    Negative sentiment on bitcoins and cryptocurrencies will also prevent gold and silver from a big crash.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 22 September 2017.


  • Global Markets Spooked By North Korea H-Bomb Threat; Focus Turns To Brexit Speech

    S&P futures retreated along with European and Asian shares with tech, and Apple supplier shares leading the drop while safe havens such as gold and the yen rose, as the war of words between U. S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un escalated and North Korea threatened to launch a hydrogen bomb, leading to a prompt return of geopolitical concerns. Trade focus now turns to a planned speech by Theresa May on Brexit (full preview here).
    As reported last night, the key overnight event was the latest threat by North Korea that its counter-measure may mean testing a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific, according to reports in Yonhap citing North Korea’s Foreign Minister. North Korea’s leader Kim said North Korea will consider “corresponding, highest level of hard-line measure in history” against US, while he also stated that President Trump’s UN speech was rude nonsense and demonstrated insanity and inhumanity which confirmed North Korea’s nuclear and missile advances are on right path and will continue to the end. There was more on the geopolitical front with the Iranian President
    informing armed forces that the nation will bolster its missile
    capabilities, according to local TV.
    As a result, treasury yields pulled back and the dollar slid the most in two weeks following North Korea’s threat it could test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index edged lower as a rout in base metals deepened, weighing on mining shares. WTI crude halted its rally above $50 a barrel as OPEC members gathered in Vienna.
    US stock futures pulled back 0.1% though markets were showing growing signs of fatigue over the belligerent U. S.-North Korea rhetoric. ‘North Korea poses such a binary risk that it’s very hard to price, and at the moment investors just have to look through it,’ said Mike Bell, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. Despite the latest jitters, MSCI’s world equity index remained on track for another weekly gain, holding near its latest record high hit on Wednesday as investors’ enthusiasm for stocks showed few signs of waning.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 22, 2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: September-21-2017

    A December interest rate hike and more hikes next year is more or less a certainty. This is the first time this year that the Federal Reserve has been very clear on the US economy and the US interest rate cycle. Any reduction on North Korean risk can result in another wave of sell off for gold and silver. The fall is good for a sustained medium term rise in gold and silver. Indian demand for gold will rise for the next month. I can expect the media to be filled with all kinds of bearish views on gold and silver. I prefer to use the sharp fall (if any) in gold and silver for the rest of the year to invest for a period of three years and more. Once again my preference will always be for physical gold as opposed to a gold ETF. I will be looking for price bottom formation every day for medium term opportunities.
    China has a holiday from 1st October to 6th October. On 9th October the USA is closed. In between we have the US September nonfarm payrolls on 6th October. Chinese are the great gobblers of gold. I expect massive Indian demand and massive Chinese demand for gold (if they continue to fall) on or before 30th September.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 21 September 2017.


  • Traders Yawn After Fed’s “Great Unwind”

    One day after the much anticipated Fed announcement in which Yellen unveiled the “Great Unwinding” of a decade of aggressive stimulus, it has been a mostly quiet session as the Fed’s intentions had been widely telegraphed (besides the December rate hike which now appears assured), despite a spate of other central bank announcements, most notably out of Japan and Norway, both of which kept policy unchanged as expected.
    ‘Yesterday was a momentous day – the beginning of the end of QE,’ Bhanu Baweja a cross-asset strategist at UBS, told Bloomberg TV. ‘The market for the first time is now moving closer to the dots as opposed to the dots moving towards the market. There’s more to come on that front. ‘
    Despite the excitement, S&P futures are unchanged, holding near all-time high as European and Asian shares rise in volumeless, rangebound trade, and oil retreated while the dollar edged marginally lower through the European session after yesterday’s Fed-inspired rally which sent the the dollar to a two-month high versus the yen on Thursday and sent bonds and commodities lower. Along with dollar bulls, European bank stocks cheered the coming higher interest rates which should help their profits, rising over 1.5% as a weaker euro helped the STOXX 600. Shorter-term, 2-year U. S. government bond yields steadied after hitting their highest in nine years.
    ‘Initial reaction is fairly straightforward,’ said Saxo Bank head of FX strategy John Hardy. ‘They (the Fed) still kept the December hike (signal) in there and the market is being reluctantly tugged in the direction of having to price that in.’
    The key central bank event overnight was the BoJ, which kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected with NIRP maintained at -0.10% and the 10yr yield target at around 0%. The BoJ stated that the decision on yield curve control was made by 8-1 decision in which known reflationist Kataoka dissented as he viewed that it was insufficient to meeting inflation goal by around fiscal 2019, although surprisingly he did not propose a preferred regime. BOJ head Kuroda spoke after the BoJ announcement, sticking to his usual rhetoric: he stated that the bank will not move away from its 2% inflation target although the BOJ “still have a distance to 2% price targe” and aded that buying equity ETFs was key to hitting the bank’s inflation target, resulting in some marginal weakness in JPY as he spoke, leaving USD/JPY to break past FOMC highs, and print fresh session highs through 112.70, the highest in two months, although it has since pared some losses.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 21, 2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: September-19-2017

    The trend after the FOMC meet tomorrow in precious metals and currency markets will be interesting. Global shift to electric cars over the coming years can put copper and nickel prices into inertia in the next few years. Some electric cars makers are considering making the car body from Aluminum to reduce car weight. Aluminum could also get a boost from electric cars. Long term fundamentals are looking extremely bullish for industrial metals. Solar power will support silver from getting a breakdown. The real competition to the traditional metals will come from Graphene. I am a big fan of Graphene. Every day I search the net for new uses of Graphene and new processes to make Graphene. I am pretty sure Graphene will soon become a part of daily lives just like copper or aluminum.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 19 September 2017.


  • India Gold Imports Nearly Triple in August Despite Tax Increase and Government Regulations

    Despite rising prices, a tax increase, and government attempts to tighten regulation of the jewelry industry, gold continues to flow into India.
    Gold imports into the country nearly tripled year-on-year in August. An estimated 60 tons of the yellow metal flowed into the Asian nation last month, up from 22.3 tons in August 2017. This continues a trend for the year. Over the first 8 months of 2017, India’s gold imports climbed to 617.5 tons, a 158% increase over 2016.
    As a Reuters report notes, the Indian gold market has an impact on the broader world market.
    Higher purchases by India, the world’s second biggest consumer, could support global prices, trading near their highest level in a year.’
    The continued flow of gold into India demonstrates the resilience of the market in that country. On July 1, the Indian government replaced a labyrinth of taxes with a nationwide 3% Goods & Services Tax (GST). The World Gold Council called it the ‘biggest fiscal reform since India’s liberalization in the early 1990s.’ The WGC said the new tax structure would ultimately increase demand for gold in India, but analysts braced for a short-term dip in imports as the tax went into effect and the market adjusted to the new system.

    This post was published at Schiffgold on SEPTEMBER 18, 2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: September-18-2017

    Yen as well as gold can be affected on speculation that Japanese prime minister may called a snap general election next month. But first we have the FOMC meet this week and thereafter the German general elections and later US September nonfarm payrolls on 6th October. Over the next three weeks there are market moving news and events which can change direction of metals, energies and currency markets. Just remember to have a key technical support in hand and key resistance in hand and trade accordingly. Do not drain your brain by over analyzing news and events. Life is never complicated. It is through our perception that we make life complicated. Trading and investment is also like life.
    Gold and silver fell after the USA said that it will try peaceful pressure on North Korea. In my view they are just out of solutions as the USA knows that trade sanctions will be useless without the support of Russia and China. Except Japan, none of North Korea’s neighbour’s want an armed conflict.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 18 September 2017.


  • Global Stocks Storm To New Record High Ahead Of Historic Fed Announcement

    Last week’s bullish sentiment that sent the S&P not only to a new all time highs, but a burst of last-second buying pushed above 2,500 for the first time ever, has carried through to the new week, with European and Asian shares rallying across the board, US futures again the green, and world stocks hitting a new record high on Monday ahead of a historic Fed meeting in which the FOMC is expected to announce the start of the shrinkage of its balance sheet.
    ***
    ‘The FOMC’s latest verdict will be of special interest,’ said Daniel Lenz, an analyst at DZ Bank in Frankfurt. ‘The Fed could well set the balance-sheet-reduction process in motion.’
    MSCI’s index of world stocks hit a new all-time high, adding to gains seen on Friday when Wall Street set its own record level, while Europe’s main stock index opened at a six-week high on Monday and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rose to heights not seen since late 2007.
    As DB’s Jim Reid summarizes the week’s key events, this week will be dominated by 3 of the most powerful women in the world “and I’m not talking about Daenerys Targaryen, Cersei Lannister and Sansa Stark. Instead we have our real world version with Mrs Yellen likely to announce the end of Fed reinvestment on Wednesday, Mrs Merkel firm favourite with the pollsters to see a big election win on Sunday and Mrs May set to outline her latest Brexit vision in Florence on Friday. Of the three, Mrs May’s speech is currently the least predictable but after a big week for the UK last week (GBPUSD +2.98%, GBPEUR +3.75%, 10yr Gilts +32bps, and the November hike probability from 18.4% to 64.5% according to Bloomberg’s calculator), Sterling assets are seeing some significant volatility at the moment.”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 18, 2017.


  • Market Talk- September 15th, 2017

    North Korea spooked markets yet again by launching a missile that reported flew over Japan, which came a day after North Korea claimed it would sink Japan. The events were short-livid however and after a brief flight to safety in gold, treasuries and the Yen markets quickly corrected back. The JPY traded into the low 110’s but by US trading had drifted into the 111’s. Gold did have a bid in Asian trading but by the late US session was testing $1320. The recovery had already taken place by the time Asia closed with the Nikkei closing in positive territory (+0.55%) with exporters and financials setting the pace. The Australian ASX closed down -0.8% led by industrials and miners. SENSEX and Hang Seng were both little changed but we saw a positive return for the core Shanghai index closing up +0.55% as the Yuan drifted again.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Sep 15, 2017.


  • Suddenly, ‘De-Dollarization’ Is A Thing

    For what seems like decades, other countries have been tiptoeing away from their dependence on the US dollar. China, Russia, and India have cut deals in which they agree to accept each others’ currencies for bi-lateral trade while Europe, obviously, designed the euro to be a reserve asset and international medium of exchange.
    These were challenges to the dollar’s dominance, but they weren’t mortal threats.
    What’s happening lately, however, is a lot more serious. It even has an ominous-sounding name: de-dollarization. Here’s an excerpt from a much longer article by ‘strategic risk consultant’ F. William Engdahl:
    Gold, Oil and De-Dollarization? Russia and China’s Extensive Gold Reserves, China Yuan Oil Market
    (Global Research) – China, increasingly backed by Russia – the two great Eurasian nations – are taking decisive steps to create a very viable alternative to the tyranny of the US dollar over world trade and finance. Wall Street and Washington are not amused, but they are powerless to stop it. So long as Washington dirty tricks and Wall Street machinations were able to create a crisis such as they did in the Eurozone in 2010 through Greece, world trading surplus countries like China, Japan and then Russia, had no practical alternative but to buy more US Government debt – Treasury securities – with the bulk of their surplus trade dollars. Washington and Wall Street could print endless volumes of dollars backed by nothing more valuable than F-16s and Abrams tanks. China, Russia and other dollar bond holders in truth financed the US wars that were aimed at them, by buying US debt. Then they had few viable alternative options.

    This post was published at DollarCollapse on SEPTEMBER 15, 2017.


  • Markets Ignore North Korea Missile Launch; Send Pound Soaring, Yen Tumbles

    S&P futures are slightly lower (ES -0.1%) as traders paid little attention to the latest missile test by North Korea on Friday, with shares and other risk assets barely moving, gold lower and focus rapidly returning to when and where interest rates will go up. Most global market are mostly unfazed, and the Korean Kospi actually closed up 0.4%, by the latest geopolitical escalation after a North Korean ballistic missile flew far enough to put the U. S. territory of Guam in range. European stocks edged fractionally lower while Asian shares advanced.
    As reported on Thursday evening, the main overnight event was North Kore’s launch of a missile which passed through Japan’s airspace and over Hokkaido, before landing in the Pacific Ocean. This initially prompted Japan to issue an emergency warning for its residents to seek shelter, while there were also reports that South Korea conducted its own missile firing test as a show of readiness. US military stated North Korean missile did not pose a threat to Guam and that the launch was an intermediate range ballistic missile. South Korean President Moon said will not sit idle on North Korea provocation and that South Korea has power to pulverize should
    North Korea provoke. On Friday morning, Russia also denounced the ‘provocative’ N. Korea missile test, according to the Kremlin. Meanwhile, North Korea stated that it will take stronger actions for its self-defence if the US continues to walk on current course.
    Still, markets are showing clear signs of habituation to missile launches and other provocative actions from North Korea, which has fired more than a dozen missiles this year and tested a nuclear device. Global equities climbed to a record high this week as earnings and confidence in economic growth overshadowed tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The MSCI All Country World Index is poised for its third week of gains in four. Meanwhile, recent economic data has been supporting of bullish positions, with yesterday’s CPI prints suggesting inflation may again be on the rebound. While China data this week softened, the signals from DM financial markets remain optimistic. As such, investors will look to U. S. retail numbers today for more clues about the policy path.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 15, 2017.


  • Details Of Steve Bannon’s “Closed To The Press” China Speech Leak

    Earlier this morning former White House Strategist Steve Bannon spoke at the CLSA investor forum in Hong Kong. While the event was originally intended to be open to the press via a live stream, CLSA officials later closed the interview to outsiders…presumably Bannon’s flare doesn’t quite fit with China’s desire to control media narratives. That said, luckily one local NEAsia correspondent, Wei Du, was kind enough to live tweet portions of Bannon’s speech for our reading pleasure.
    Ironically, what was billed to be an “anti-China” speech turned out to be anything but that with Bannon repeatedly praising U. S.-China relations and saying “there isn’t a world leader he (Trump) respects more than the President of China.” Bannon went on to say that Trump will visit China in November and that the downside of an “economic war” with China is so huge that it has to be worked out.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 12, 2017.


  • Richard Sylla: Human Civilization at Momentous Turning Point With Record Debt Levels and Ultra-Low Interest Rates

    Total US debt has now exceeded $20 trillion for the first time ever. Meanwhile, interest rates (i.e. the cost of debt) in the US and around the globe reached the lowest levels in recorded history.
    Financial Sense recently spoke with Richard Sylla, professor emeritus of economics at New York University and the co-author of A History of Interest Rates, about the unique times we are living in and why, historically speaking, we may be looking at a momentous turning point in human civilization.
    History of Interest Rates
    ‘As long as you have some commerce…people are going to demand credit,’ Sylla said.
    Silver and gold have always been prized, but coin-based currency didn’t come in until the fifth or sixth century. This ushered in a new era, Sylla noted.
    This was one of the most impactful economic innovations in history, basically beginning in Asia Minor or what is today Turkey.
    This state of affairs changed over the years, but we basically had a monetary system based on precious metals until the classical gold standard in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Sylla noted.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 09/12/2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: September-12-2017

    Physical buyers of gold and silver will be looking for signs of a bottom formation. Premiums will rise with every fall. This is just profit taking before the Bank of England meeting on Thursday and the FOMC meet next week. I do not expect surprises in either of the meetings but investors are cautious. Quarter end profit taking is also seen in bullion and currency markets. German elections after the FOMC meeting will also keep everyone on their toes.
    The first step towards an attack on North Korea has been started with the beginning of trade sanctions.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 12 September 2017.


  • Cold War II Expands to Asia

    September is not unfolding as expected. Then again, as Yogi Berra said, ‘It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.’
    Just a few weeks ago, this month was supposed to bring an angry stand-off in Washington and possibly a government shutdown or debt default. Those could still happen, but President Trump’s deal with the Democrats pushed it back to December.
    ***
    That’s probably good because many other things need the government’s attention: Hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, and wildfires, to name a few. Yet as costly and lethal as those are, they’re minor compared to the threat of nuclear war.

    This post was published at Mauldin Economics on SEPTEMBER 12, 2017.


  • Gold-Backed, Yuan-Denominated Oil Futures Could Dethrone US Petrodollar

    A recent move by China could take a big step toward dethroning the US petrodollar.
    The Chinese have announced the launch of a gold-backed, yuan-denominated oil futures contract. The move potentially creates a way for oil exporters to circumvent US dollar denominated benchmarks by trading in yuan. The contracts will be priced in yuan, but convertible to gold. An article in the Nikki Asian Review explains the significance of the move.
    The contract could become the most important Asia-based crude oil benchmark, given that China is the world’s biggest oil importer. Crude oil is usually priced in relation to Brent or West Texas Intermediate futures, both denominated in US dollars. China’s move will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent US sanctions by trading in yuan. To further entice trade, China says the yuan will be fully convertible into gold on exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong.’
    The stability of gold is the key to China’s drive to dethrone the petrodollar

    This post was published at Schiffgold on SEPTEMBER 11, 2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: September-11-2017

    The correction in gold and silver is a part and parcel of a long term bull rally. A short term bearish trend will be there if gold and silver continue to fall after the Bank of England meeting on Thursday this week. The UN meeting on North Korea will be fake. The USA will get what it wants from the UN. Other than Russia there is no other power which can challenge NATO and the UN. Russian stance will be the key to the North Korean crisis just like Syria. Physical demand for gold and silver will zoom in Asia on any two percent fall (if any).
    Hurricanes in the USA are a short term pain for the US economy but a real long term gain.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 11 September 2017.


  • Crashing Dollar Sends European Stocks, US Futures Reeling; Yuan Has Best Week On Record

    European stocks dropped, Asian and EM market rose, and S&P were lower by 0.3% as investors assessed the latest overnight carnage in the USD which plunged to the lowest level since the start of 2015, sending the USDJPY tumbling to 107, the euro extending gains to just shy of $1.21 and a slowdown in China’s export growth which however did not prevent the Yuan from posting its best weekly gain on record.
    It was all about the seemingly huge currency moves overnight as the dollar plunged for the 7th day in a row, the biggest 7 day drop in 4 months, amid doubts about further Federal Reserve tightening, North Korea tensions and as Hurricane Irma threatens South Florida. The Yen rose to the strongest level against the dollar since Nov. amid nervousness about possible provocation from North Korea ahead of its foundation day on Saturday; yen surged past 108 per dollar as options barriers gave way, triggering a series of stop-losses. The Yuan rallied toward 6.45/USD in both onshore and offshore markets as traders speculate PBOC will tolerate a stronger currency after it rose past the psychological 6.50 mark Thursday. The Australian dollar surged to the highest in more than two years on the back of dollar weakness while the cherry on top was the 10Y TSY yield touching a YTD low of 2.014% before rebounding to ~2.035%.
    Meanwhile, natural disasters were aplenty, including the most powerful earthquake this century to shake Mexico, while Hurricane Irma is projected to hit Florida Sunday, and North Korea is widely expected to launch an ICBM on its September 9 holiday.
    As reported last night, the big overnight story was the dramatic plunge in the dollar in Asian trading….

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 8, 2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: September-08-2017

    Energies will crash if hurricane Irma turns out to be a damn squib. The Korea situation and the European central bank and crypto currencies legal issues are ensuring that the bullish trend in gold and silver continue. Japanese GDP expanded less than expected and should prevent big gains for the Yen in the medium term. In the short term it will be a momentum play for the currency markets.
    Traders will now start taking positions for the Federal Reserve meeting on 20th of September.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 8 September 2017.