What a difference a year makes: last December, just as the ECB was about to shock the market with the announcement of its first 20 billion QE tapering, macroeconomic data mattered, especially since the Fed’s tightening intertia appeared to truly be data-dependent, if only for a very short period of time. Fast forward one year, when 3 rate hikes into the Fed’s “paradoxical” tightening cycle, in which much to the BIS’s shock the higher Fed Funds rates rise, the easier financial conditions get, a “dovish” December rate hike is assured, and as such Friday’s payroll report, which will probably print withint a few thousands of 200K, is completely irrelevant.
Still, to at least some headline-scanning algos, the jobs report will matter, if only so that it can respond in a knee-jerk reaction, and be stopped out by yet another group of headline-scanning algos whose only job is to make sure the first group of algos pukes their trades at a loss, regardless of what the underlying data is.
With that in mind, and with the understanding that fundamental data hasn’t really mattered since 2009, here is what Wall Street expects – and algos – will expect from tomorrow’s charade, which no matter what will send the market higher.
The BLS will release November’s Employment Situation Report at 1330 GMT (0830 EST) on Friday 8 November
After October’s bounce-back, analysts expect normalisation in the rate of payroll additions (consensus 200k) Wage growth may be buoyed by calendar effects, pushing the Y/Y rate up to 2.7% SUMMARY: Analysts expect payroll growth to ease in November; the October data was boosted by unwinding negative effects from hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, and therefore, analysts will see a slowing as more of a normalisation, rather than the beginning of a new slowdown. There may be some upside in retail hiring given the early Thanksgiving Holiday. Rounding effects may result in the rate of joblessness slipping slightly. Earnings growth is likely to be supported by calendar effects, which may push the Y/Y rate up to 2.7%, matching the pace of annualised wage growth seen in Q3.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 8, 2017.