• Category Archives Fiscal Policies
  • “ECB Or Not To Be”: A Preview Of What Mario Draghi Will Say

    Looking at today’s main event, the much anticipated ECB announcement in which Draghi may (or may not) announce a hawkish shift to the cental bank’s policies and/or reveal the bank’s tapering plans, Citi (whose titled we borrowed) gives the 30 second summary, and says that the market seems quite split on whether the ECB will remove the asset purchase program easing bias, but thinks that there’s room for mild disappointment. After all, it says, this meeting is just a warm up for the September meeting (and Jackson Hole). CitiFX Strategist Josh O’Byrne points out that the biggest market fear at the moment appears to be long positioning and “this risks morphing into FOMO for the next leg higher.” For the press conference, Citi expects Draghi to slightly tweak some of the language from Sintra to lean a little bit more towards the dovish side.
    The bank’s expectations are summarized in the following handy cheat sheet:

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 20, 2017.


  • ‘Investors’ Haven’t Bought Tech Stocks Like This Since Bernanke Hinted At QE2 In 2010

    Investors piled $2.7 billion into QQQ (the benchmark ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index) in the five days through July 14 as shares in the fund posted their biggest advance this year.
    As Bloomberg notes, the biggest weekly inflow since September 2010 came as the tech-heavy index – with megacaps Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Alphabet among its largest members – rebounded to within 1 percent of its record high.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 17, 2017.


  • JULY 12/GOLD UP $4.20/SILVER UP 15 CENTS/AMOUNT STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX RISES AGAIN/HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD LEAVES THE REGISTERED (DEALER) ACCOUNT/SLV WITNESSES ANOTHER 1.986 MILLION OZ ADDED TO…

    GOLD: $1219.80 UP $4.20
    Silver: $15.93 UP 15 cent(s)
    Closing access prices:
    Gold $1220.25
    silver: $15.93
    SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1228.97 DOLLARS PER OZ
    NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1218.90
    PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $10.07
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1230.19
    NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1220.15
    Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$10.04
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1219.40
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1219.10
    LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1218.80
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1220.60 ????
    For comex gold:
    JULY/
    NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ.
    TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 63 FOR 6300 OZ (.1959 TONNES)
    For silver:
    JULY
    145 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
    725,000 OZ/
    Total number of notices filed so far this month: 2757 for 13,785,000 oz

    This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on July 12, 2017.


  • Bonds, Bullion, & Stocks Jump, Dollar Dumps On ‘Dovish’ Yellen Remarks

    The market seems convinced, judging by the knee-jerk reaction, that Janet Yellen has retreated back to her ‘dovish‘ corner following the release of her prepared remarks…
    Stocks have shrugged off any Trump agenda fears…
    And investors are buying bonds too…and gold…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 12, 2017.


  • S&P Scrambles Back To Unchanged After Trump Jr. Turmoil, Dollar At Low-Of-Day

    ‘Dip-buyers’ stepped up bravely to rescue stock markets after Trump Jr.’s email threatened to unravel the hype of Trump tax cuts… but it seems McConnell’s sumemr-school for Senators has saved the day as hope is back that healthcare (then tax cuts) will emerge… and the S&P reached unchanged…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 11, 2017.


  • One Hedge Fund CIO’s Conversation With His Uber Driver

    In his latest weekly letter to clients, One River CIO Eric Peters shifts his attention away from his two favorite topics of monetary policy and capital markets, to unveil a streak of contrarian skepticism on the topic of “technological disruption”, and in his trademark anecdotal style, present a hypothesis that would be most unwelcome in virtually every Econ 101 class and Venture Capitalist Headquarters: stating that “we should be careful not to overlook the possibility that today’s disruptive technology companies may be not much more than mechanisms to drive wages down to subsistence levels’ alleging that ‘these companies rely less on technological innovation per se, but on changing employment styles and reducing total wages, while imposing harsher working conditions.”
    His conclusion: ‘the nature of technology depends very much upon what the public can be induced to put up with.’
    And just to make his view more palpable he presents the following conversation with his Uber driver:

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 9, 2017.


  • Gold And Silver: Respect The Bar

    1. At about 4:00am yesterday, gold suffered a dramatic sell-off in just a few seconds. More than 15,000 contracts quickly changed hands on the COMEX.
    2. This caught most investors by surprise. That’s because they don’t follow the physical market meticulously.
    3. The supply and demand of physical gold is what drives price discovery in the paper market. The leverage involved on the COMEX, SGE (Shanghai), and the LBMA (London) allows the paper market to significantly magnify the action taking place in the physical market.
    4. The gold price trends are generally determined by the physical market, and magnified by the paper market. It’s that simple.
    5. Janet Yellen has stated, ‘I don’t think anybody understands gold.’ I disagree. I’ll suggest that anybody who ignores the physical market will find that most of what happens in the paper market feels like an electric shock. It’s not a shock. It’s a magnification.
    6. To view the latest key physical gold market news, please click here now. When the major banks stop importing gold into India, even if it’s for just a few days (as it is in this case), a ‘price vacuum’ can occur on the COMEX and/or the LBMA, and do so in just a few seconds.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 27 June 2017.


  • The Last Time Economic Data Disappointed This Much, Bernanke Unleashed Operation Twist

    For the 13th straight week, US economic data disappointed (already downgraded) expectations, sending Citi’s US Macro Surprise Index to its weakest since August 2011 (crashing at a pace only beaten by the periods surrounding Lehman and the US ratings downgrade). The last time, Us economic data disappointed this much, Ben Bernanke immediately unleashed Operation Twist… but this time Janet Yellen is hiking rates and unwinding the balance sheet?

    As Citi notes, breaking down this move, we can see that the recent data
    disappointments have been driven by a steady fall in the underlying
    data, rather than overly exuberant expectations. In other words, economists have been adjusting expectations downwards, but the data has been falling at a faster rate.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 16, 2017.


  • Trader: “The Downside Doesn’t Get Interesting Until S&P Hits 2,400…”

    “Keep It Simple Stupid,” is the key lesson from Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow note this morning as he conjures doves, snakes, hawks and starfish to make his point. Simply put, don’t panic… yet. Here are the assets he’s watching and levels to trade…
    Sometimes when you just can’t keep the story simple, it’s best to do so in your trading. The world is a complicated place and there’s great risk in trying to reduce all causality to one factor. There’s a tug of war going on and the rope resembles a starfish not a snake. Although I’d have to admit, a lot of what we’re witnessing has a distinctly reptilian aura about it.
    So what are some of the things we need to factor in?
    Chair Yellen was hawkish. Why various assets responded to her in the way they did is a story about them. And well worth considering. But it doesn’t change the underlying fact. Bonds being bid doesn’t mean they don’t believe her or we’re watching a different press conference than precious metals traders.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 15, 2017.


  • Despite Bank Of Canada Hubris, Existing Home Sales Crash In May

    The Bank of Canada is stuck between the rock of a housing bubble (textbook-based trickle-down confidence-inspiration) and a hard place of a housing bubble (total lack of affordability) as it proclaimed this week that it may withdraw stimulus because, paraphrasing, everything was awesome. Well, today’s existing home sales collapse may change that tune quickly…
    Bloomberg reports that in a speech she’s delivering in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins highlighted how the nation’s recovery is broadening across regions and sectors, giving policy makers ‘reason to be encouraged.’
    ‘As growth continues and, ideally, broadens further, Governing Council will be assessing whether all of the considerable monetary policy stimulus presently in place is still required,’ Wilkins said in the text of a speech she’s giving Monday.
    ‘At present, there is significant monetary policy stimulus in the system.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 15, 2017.


  • Mario Draghi Explains The ECB’s Dovish-Hawk Statement – Live Feed

    What Mario taketh (removed lower rate guidance), he also giveth (keeps “well past” QE language) as Citi notes The ECB came in just about exactly where the market expected it to be leaving EURUSD slightly lower. The question is now whether the ECB have something left in the locker for Draghi’s press conference? If it stays like this, Citi expects EUR to go lower.
    The ECB dropped the easing bias, and reiterated that rates are to stay at present or lower levels past QE horizon, sees QE running until end of December or beyond if needed… and EUR is leaking…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 8, 2017.


  • All You Need To Know How To Trade This “Market” In Five Words

    Remember when buoyed by the ever present specter of QE, stocks would levitate no matter what happened, because “good news was good, but bad news was better”? Well, according to BofA, we are right back where we started.
    ***
    From BofA:
    All news is good news. May’s jobs report – with lower than expected headline jobs growth of 147K, negative revisions of -66K and downward revisions to wages – represents another piece in a string of disappointing hard economic data. Impressively, even though stocks initially struggled eventually they turned around and closed up 0.37% on the day. Clearly, equities continue to respond well to both positive and negative economic data, as the latter leads to a more dovish monetary policy stance.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 5, 2017.


  • Gold Miners in 2017 Whipsaw

    Ever since 2012’s failure of the ‘QE 3 rally’ in the precious metals it has not been fruitful to micro manage the gold sector, because that failure jump started a savage bear market that would need time to work out the excesses both in the sector’s investor base and in its mining businesses, which had become bloated and inefficient. That’s what bear markets do; they clean out the landscape to make it inhabitable for new investors one day. Here is a weekly chart showing the bear’s kickoff. HUI’s 55 week EMA then became the ball and chain that kept its fate sealed (red arrows) until January of 2016.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 4 June 2017.


  • Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Between the Crosses, Row By Row

    “One of the common failings among honorable people is a failure to appreciate how thoroughly dishonorable some other people can be, and how dangerous it is to trust them.”
    Thomas Sowell
    Today was an option expiration, and we had an additional pop in stocks in order to complete the routing of the bears who piled on to the ‘Trump dump.’
    The putative reason for today’s rally was a statement by the Fed’s Bullard about the role that additional QE may play. I am not sure if this was ‘real’ or just another reasons to wash and rinse the public.
    Next week will be the June option expiration for precious metals on the Comex.
    Stocks are at a bit of a crossroads here. The SP 500 futures and big cap tech in the NDX, for example, have retraced approximately fifty percent of the recent drop, and are both at the midpoint of their respective bull trend channels.

    This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 19 MAY 2017.


  • MAY 5/USA ISSUES A FAIRY TALE JOBS REPORT/HUGE BANK RUNS IN ITALY AS ITS TARGET 2 IMBALANCES BALLOON/RUSSIA, IRAN AND TURKEY BAN USA FLIGHTS OVER SAFE ZONES IN SYRIA/NEW YORK FED LOWERS ITS ESTIM…

    Gold: $1226.60 UP $.10
    Silver: $16.28 UP 4 cent(s)
    Closing access prices:
    Gold $1228.50
    silver: $16.34!!!
    XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
    SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1238.24 DOLLARS PER OZ
    NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: 1228.35
    PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.83

    This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on May 5, 2017.


  • Hey Bartender! U.S. Job Gains Rebound as Unemployment Falls to 2007 Levels (Hourly Earnings Slow To Levels Seen At End Of Great Recession)

    This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
    Another good news and bad news jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    First, the good news. 211k jobs were added in April. And the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 4,4%, the lowest since May 2007. Since The Fed so heavily leans on the U-3 unemployment rate to guide their rate hike decision, this should be compelling information for the next FOMC meeting.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B Sanders ‘ May 5, 2017.


  • April Payrolls Preview: “It Better Be Good”

    After the abysmal March labor report, all we – and the Fed – can say is that April better be good, or else Yellen’s claim of “transitory weakness” will simply be the latest nail in the coffin of Fed credibility. Here is the consensus for the key numbers the BLS will report at 8:30am ET on Friday morning.
    March Nonfarm Payrolls Exp. 185K, (Prey. 98K, Feb. 235K) US Unemployment Rate (Mar) M/M Exp. 4.6% (Prey. 4.5%, Feb. 4.7%) Average Hourly Earnings Exp. 0.30% (Prey. 0.20%, Feb. 0.20%) Payrolls Expectation by Bank:
    Barclays: 225K, Bank of America: 170K, Goldman Sachs: 200K, SocGen: 165K, UBS: 210K, Wells Fargo: 178K, Big Picture: Friday’s non-farm payrolls release follows Wednesday’s FOMC meeting where the Fed, as expected, kept rates on hold with all eyes now on June’s decision. One key takeaway from this week’s decision was the Fed noting the labour market conditions continuing to strengthen as growth slowed, as it deemed that job gains had been solid despite March’s softer than expected labor market report and quasi-recessionary Q1 GDP. The Fed’s statement was devoid of any real negatives and has led to Fed Fund futures pricing in a near 80% chance of a 25bps hike at its June meeting.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 5, 2017.