• Tag Archives Japan
  • IMF Sees U.S. Fading as Global Growth Engine

    The world is leaning less on its biggest economy to sustain the global recovery, according to the International Monetary Fund.
    The fund left its forecast for global growth unchanged in the latest quarterly update to its World Economic Outlook, released Monday in Kuala Lumpur. The world economy will expand 3.5 percent this year, up from 3.2 percent in 2016, and by 3.6 percent next year, the IMF said. The forecasts for this year and next are unchanged from the fund’s projections in April.
    Beneath the headline figures, though, the drivers of the recovery are shifting, with the world relying less than expected on the U.S. and U.K. and more on China, Japan, the euro zone and Canada, according to the Washington-based IMF.
    The dollar fell to its lowest in 14 months last week as investors discounted the ability of President Donald Trump’s administration to deliver on its economic agenda after efforts by the Republican Senate to overhaul health care collapsed.
    ‘U.S. growth projections are lower than in April, primarily reflecting the assumption that fiscal policy will be less expansionary going forward than previously anticipated,’ the IMF said in the latest report.

    This post was published at bloomberg


  • Money Is Money, Wherever It Comes From

    One of the crucial things to understand about today’s world is that money is fungible. Whether it’s created in Japan, Europe, China or the US, once it’s tossed by a central bank into one or another part of the global economy, it eventually finds its way to a common pool of liquidity.
    So the modest US tightening of the past year (100 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate, slight decrease in Fed balance sheet) has to be seen in a global context. And that context is still insanely easy. Here, for instance, is China’s ‘social financing’ – their term for total new debt:

    This post was published at DollarCollapse on JULY 25, 2017.


  • Hyundai-Kia Brutally Crushed in China, Mauled in the US

    Its largest & second largest markets. In how much trouble is it?
    Hyundai Motor Group is getting brutally crushed in its largest market, China, where it is, or rather was, the third largest automaker behind GM and Volkswagen. And it is getting mauled in its second largest market, the US, where it is the seventh largest automaker behind the Big Three US automakers and the Big Three Japanese automakers.
    Hyundai Motor Group came about in 1998 after the Asian Financial Crisis, when it obtained a controlling stake in Kia after Kia went bankrupt. The Korean conglomerate, in addition to automakers Hyundai and Kia, has other affiliates, including Hyundai Steel, logistics company Hyundai Glovis, and auto components supplier Hyundai Mobis, all of which are listed separately on the Korean stock exchange.
    These entities support and supply the automakers Hyundai and Kia and are dependent on what the automakers sell. And both automakers are in the same boat in China, where things were already hard before the 2017 collapse began.

    This post was published at Wolf Street on Jul 25, 2017.


  • The Breakdown Before the Breakthrough

    Since our last note, the US dollar index has made its way down to the lows of last summer, currently hovering just above the Brexit upside pivot from June 24th, 2016.
    Although asset trends can elicit major technical breaks from oversold conditions (i.e. crash), the more probable outcome from our perspective favors another retracement bounce, before traders can set their sights on breaking through long-term underlying support that’s confined all declines in the dollar index over the past 3 years.
    Maintaining a KISS approach of lower highs and lows that has served traders well this year in the US dollar index, we would look for the highs from early July to contain a prospective bounce. This methodology also applies to the flipside of momentum for potential lows in the euro, yen and gold – with the two latter assets also likely influenced by the short-term respective trends in equities and yields. In this respect, over the near-term the Japanese yen and gold could hold up better than the euro, as we suspect the rally in equities gives back this months gains – largely supporting the uptrend in long-term Treasuries and buttressing safe haven assets like the yen and gold.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on Tuesday, 25 July 2017.


  • BoJ Keeps Rates Unchanged, Postpones 2% Inflation Deadline

    The Bank of Japan kept its monetary stimulus program unchanged even as it pushed back the projected timing for reaching 2 percent inflation for a sixth time.
    The downgraded price outlook will raise more questions about the sustainability of the BOJ’s stimulus at time when other major central banks are turning toward normalizing their monetary policy. The European Central Bank, which is said to examine options for winding down quantitative easing, concludes its own governing council meeting later on Thursday.
    By again delaying the timing for hitting its price goal, the BOJ acknowledged the need to continue easing for at least several more years, probably beyond 2020 because of a sales-tax increase scheduled for late 2019, said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief Japan economist at Credit Suisse Group AG and a former BOJ official.
    “Going forward, there will be even more attention on the sustainability of the stimulus from market participants and lawmakers,” Shirawaka said.
    BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it was regrettable the central bank needed to push back its inflation goal again, saying it hadn’t intentionally made its forecasts too optimistic. He noted that central banks in the U.S. and Europe had also overestimated inflation.

    This post was published at bloomberg


  • European Stocks Fall To 3 Month Lows On “Carmaker Cartel” Fears, Sliding PMIs; US Futures Lower

    In a mixed session, which has seen Asian stocks ex-Japan broadly higher, the European Stoxx 600 index dropped as much as 0.6% after data Markit PMI data signalled euro-area economy grew in July at its slowest pace in six months while carmakers extended declines on continued concern about antitrust collusion in the industry. Germany’s DAX Index was hardest-hit euro-area benchmark, down as much as 0.8%. Autos continued to be the worst-performing sector on the Stoxx Europe 600 after EU and German regulators said they are studying possible collusion among German automakers. Der Spiegel magazine reported on Friday that BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen may have cooperated for decades on technology.
    ***
    Concerns have risen that with the Euro trading near its strongest level in 2 years and appreciating 11% against the USD YTD, it may weigh on exporters’ earnings; 1.20 on the EURUSD is being seen a key barrier beyond which European earnings will suffer. As a result, the euro headed for its first decline in three days as data showed the region’s economy cooling at the start of a week packed with earnings results and a Federal Reserve rate decision. Stocks were dragged down for a second day by carmakers amid a collusion probe.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 24, 2017.


  • David Stockman Warns The Market’s “Chuck Prince Moment” Has Arrived… “Only More Dangerous”

    On July 10, 2007 former Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince famously said what might be termed the ‘speculator’s creed’ for the current era of Bubble Finance. Prince was then canned within four months but as of that day his minions were still slamming the’buy’ key good and hard:
    ‘When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing,’ he said in an interview with the FT in Japan.
    We are at that moment again. Only this time the danger of a thundering crash is far greater. That’s because the current blow-off top comes after nine years of even more central bank policy than Greenspan’s credit and housing bubble.
    The Fed and its crew of traveling central banks around the world have gutted honest price discovery entirely. They have turned global financial markets into outright gambling dens of unchecked speculation.
    Central bank policies of massive quantitative easing (QE) and zero interest rates (ZIRP) have been sugar-coated in rhetoric about ‘stimulus’, ‘accommodation’ and guiding economies toward optimal levels of inflation and full-employment.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 22, 2017.


  • Why the Gold Price Could Continue Beyond Today’s 4-Week High

    This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning – We Make Investing Profitable. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
    Over the last week, the gold price has bounced back above the $1,200 threshold. With the metal currently trading at $1,251, it’s set to post a weekly gain of 1.7%. The price of gold’s rally this week to its highest level since June 23 came mostly on the back of comments from Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB). Draghi said during the bank’s policy meeting on Thursday that the ECB had not yet formalized plans to roll back monetary policy stimulus.
    The Bank of Japan (BoJ) also said its inflation expectations were not meeting targets, with the current 1.1% inflation rate below the previous forecast of 1.4%. The BoJ noted that a dovish monetary policy would persist for some time.
    And that echoed what U. S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in her Congressional testimony last week, when she admitted the global inflation slowdown could call for an ‘adjustment’ to the Fed’s policy.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Peter Krauth ‘ July 21, 2017.


  • Albert Edwards: Only One “Aberration” Is Preventing A “Petrifying Bear Market”

    One month after he shared his preview of the endgame of this current centrally-planned economic regime (expect no happy ending there, as “citizens will soon turn their rage towards Central Bankers.”) Albert Edwards is out with a new note asking whether “H2 2017 will undo the trend of lower inflation, bond yields and the dollar?” and – if the answer is no – he cautions that “investors might give some thought to the fact that we are now just one recession away from Japanese-style outright deflation!”
    The creator of the “deflationary ice-age” concept starts off by noting that equities have risen to new all-time highs as weak US inflation data have reduced expectations of further Fed rate hikes. This has driven both bond yields and the dollar lower and in turn EM and commodity prices higher. But, Edwards warns, the trend might easily reverse as the second half of this year progresses.
    “This might dampen the impact of recent compelling evidence that core CPI and wage inflation seem destined to remain curiously weak throughout the remainder of this cycle.”
    But as the SocGen strategist concedes, a far bigger question is how the recent equity highs sit with our Ice Age thesis – is it dead or just sleeping?”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 20, 2017.


  • JULY 20/MUELLER NOW EXPANDS SCOPE INTO TRUMP’S BUSINESS DEALINGS SENDS GOLD AND SILVER NORTHBOUND/GOLD UP $3.50/SILVER UP 5 CENTS/BANK OF AMERICA PULLS OUT OF ALL FUNDING FOR LARGE CHINESE CONGLO…

    GOLD: $1246.00 UP $3.50
    Silver: $16.38 UP 5 cent(s)
    Closing access prices:
    Gold $1245.00
    silver: $16.36
    SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1247.75 DOLLARS PER OZ
    NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1239.50
    PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.25
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1246.52
    NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1238.10
    Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$8.42
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1236.55
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1237.70
    LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1238.70
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1239.15
    For comex gold:
    JULY/
    NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ.
    TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 149 FOR 14900 OZ (.4634 TONNES)
    For silver:
    JULY
    34 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
    170,000 OZ/
    Total number of notices filed so far this month: 2956 for 14,780,000 oz
    XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
    end
    The key event today was the revelation that Mueller is probing Trump’s business interests around the globe. That sparked gold and silver to rebound after the bankers had targeted our precious metals to the dumpster today. That plan was foiled with the Mueller news.
    I would really like you to read the Stockman commentary at the bottom of my commentary. It is a must read..
    Let us have a look at the data for today
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    In silver, the total open interest FELL BY 1845 contract(s) DOWN to 207,844 DESPITE THE TINY RISE IN PRICE THAT SILVER TOOK WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING (UP 4 CENT(S). TODAY WE HAD NEW SPECULATOR LONGS ENTER THE MARKET WITH THE BANKERS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER. THE BANKERS ARE HAVING AN AWFUL TIME TRYING TO SHAKE THE SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE. HOWEVER SOME SILVER LONGS DID DEPART
    In ounces, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.061 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 152% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
    FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 34 NOTICE(S) FOR 170,000 OZ OF SILVER
    In gold, the total comex gold FELL BY 2948 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($0.50 with YESTERDAY’S TRADING). The total gold OI stands at 481,256 contracts. THE BANKERS ARE STILL LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE GOLD PAPER AND WISH TO COVER MORE OF THEIR SHORTS. SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONGS STARTED TO ENTER THE GOLD COMEX ARENA AGAIN. THE PLETHORA OF DATA RELEASED ON FRIDAY SHOWING RETAIL SPENDING BASICALLY COLLAPSING ALONG WITH SMALLER INFLATION NUMBERS MUST BE SCARING OUR BANKERS TO DEATH.
    we had 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold.
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
    GLD:
    Today no changes in gold inventory
    Inventory rests tonight: 816.13 tonnes
    for 5 consecutive days, gold rises appreciably and yet gold inventory drops at the GLD
    (In the last 5 days gold rises $27.70 and yet GLD inventory collapses by 16.26 tonnes)
    GLD IS A MASSIVE FRAUD/INVENTORY SHOULD BE RISING NOT FALLING.
    SLV
    Today: : WE HAD A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY TONIGHT/A WITHDRAWAL OF 945,000 OZ WITH SILVER UP AGAIN BY 5 CENTS
    INVENTORY RESTS AT 347.121 MILLION OZ

    This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on July 20, 2017.


  • Technology that Glitters in Gold: Solar Energy, Bioprinting and Tractor Beams

    Researchers continue to come up with amazing new technologies utilizing gold.
    We generally think of gold as an investment as well as money, but it is increasingly being used in high-tech applications. Gold’s conductivity and malleability make it suitable for a number of futuristic applications, from energy production to healthcare. Researchers are even using the metal in things that sound like they came out of a sci-fi book. In fact, the tech sector accounted for about 6% of gold demand in 2016.
    A team of researchers in Japan has developed a material incorporating gold nanoparticlescapable of harvesting a broader spectrum of sunlight in solar panels. According to AsianScientist, the new formulation makes traditional semiconductor material 60 time more efficient at splitting water to harvest hydrogen atoms. This could revolutionize hydrogen energy production.
    Hydrogen ranks among the cleanest low-carbon fuels. It gives off energy when it combines with oxygen. The byproduct is water. But currently, the process of harvesting hydrogen molecules by splitting H2O takes more energy than the produced hydrogen gives back. AsianScientist explains how gold may make the process more efficient.


    This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 20, 2017.


  • World Stock Markets Firmer; ECB Meeting Conclusion Awaited

    This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
    (Kitco News) – Most world stock markets were firmer overnight, continuing to see upside support from generally upbeat corporate earnings reports. U. S. stock indexes hit record highs on Wednesday and are poised to move still higher when the New York day session begins.
    Gold prices are lower in pre-U. S.-session trading today. Some mild profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders is featured after recent good gains in the yellow metal.
    In overnight news, the Bank of Japan at its latest monetary policy meeting Thursday scaled back its inflation expectations to suggest its easy-money policies can remain in place longer.
    The European Central Bank is meeting Thursday. The marketplace is awaiting the ECB’s stance on future monetary policy for the Euro zone. ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference will be the highlight of the ECB meeting.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Jim Wyckoff ‘ July 20, 2017.


  • BOJ Plans To Drop Inflation Target At Thursday’s Meeting

    The Bank of Japan is finally acknowledging something that Federal Reserve policy makers like San Francisco Fed President John Williams acknowledged months ago, when he published a paper highlighting the growing disconnect between the tightening labor market and consumer prices. As Credit Suisse strategist Burkhard Varnholt explained two months ago, the growing heft of e-commerce companies like Amazon represents a new disinflationary paradigm, weighing on the costs of consumer goods. Meanwhile, the intensifying three-way battle between Amazon, its chief brick-and-mortar rival Wal-Mart and discount grocers like Aldi have helped keep consumer prices anchored, while rent, tuition and medical costs have continued racing higher.
    And now that the company is preparing to take over Whole Foods Market, fire the grocers’ human employees and replace them with kiosks and sensors, allowing customers to walk out of the store with their items without waiting in a checkout line, the disinflationary trend is expected to continue. In fact, as the Washington-based e-commerce giant expands aggressively in other major developed and emerging economies, price pressures are expected to abate as the Bezos behemoth tightens the screws on its rivals.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 18, 2017.


  • The ECB’s Balance Sheet Is Now The Size Of Japan’s GDP

    Yesterday was a landmark day for the ECB. First, the central bank disclosed that its CSPP, or corporate bond, holdings rose above 100Bn for the first time. As DB’s Jim Reids notes this morning, to put things in perspective, a similar market cap company would be the 18th largest in the Stoxx 600 and 42nd largest in the S&P 500. It’s also roughly equivalent to the annual national output of Kuwait – the 59th largest economy in the world as of 2016.”
    Assuming that the previously disclosed percentage of bonds purchased in the primary market, or directly from the company, has not changed since our report a month ago, this means that the price indiscriminate ECB has directly injected approximately $15 billion in various European corporate entities in exchange for bonds, bypassing any middlemen in the process.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 18, 2017.


  • A Bearish Citi Warns “Bigger Forces Are At Play”, Pointing To Its ‘Chart Of The Week’

    Over the next three weeks, the investing world will shift its attention away from the endless chatter of central bankers and concerns about the state of the economy, and instead focus on second quarter earning season, which launched on Friday with results from the three biggest US banks which showed that chronically low volatility is anything but good for trading revenues (as Jamie Dimon made all too clear in a bizarre Friday rant). As previewed last week, and is the norm, we get most of the US numbers first, followed by Europe and then Japan.

    And yet, despite expectations for a Q2 S&P500 EPS increase of roughly 7% Y/Y, suggesting solid economic growth, Citi warns that “we may be approaching a cyclical peak.” The biggest concern is that recent economic data, especially the “hard” variety, has been anything but good.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 15, 2017.


  • Spot Gold Jumps as US Retail Sales + Inflation Hit Dollar, Risk of ‘Bar Selling’ on Japan’s 0% JGB Plan

    Spot gold prices jumped near 2-week highs at $1232 per ounce Friday lunchtime in London as weak US retail sales and inflation data saw the Dollar drop hard on the forex market.
    Consumer prices rose 1.6% in July from a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said – the weakest inflation since before Donald Trump won the presidential election last November – while retail sales fell for a second month running, also defying analyst forecasts.
    The Euro jumped half-a-cent towards this week’s 2-month highs versus the US currency, while the Japanese Yen jumped to a 2% gain for this week at its strongest level since 3 July.
    The spot gold price outpaced them both, however, rising to a weekly gain for Eurozone and Japanese investors and adding 0.6% from last Friday against the British Pound.
    Major government bond prices jumped having weakened badly since the US Federal Reserve raised Dollar interest rates to a ceiling of 1.25% this time last month.
    That pushed bond yields sharply lower across the board, with 10-year US Treasurys offering its lowest rate so far in July at 2.28%.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 07/14/2017.


  • Nomi Prins: Easy Money Policy Allows for Another Crisis

    Nomi Prins joined The Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan in Tokyo to discuss the banking landscape and state of financial regulations in the Trump era. The central bank historian and financial expert also took a deep dive into the shifting relations between the United States and Japan and what easy money policy has meant for financial markets.
    The author began the discussion noting that, ‘A lot of things have happened in the past months in particular within finance and trade alliances amongst countries in the Trump era.’
    Speaking on the recent gathering of world leaders Prins’ notes, ‘One of the things that came out of the G20 is whether it is America last in terms of the alliances occurring today. The American first policy is pushing new diplomacy and agreements with countries that have not spoken with one another in the past. This is happening for two reasons. One, from a standpoint of protecting the commonality of the world. It is filling the gap between receding powers versus rising power. Two, it is an anti-protectionist move.’


    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on July 13, 2017.


  • Dimon Says QE Unwind May Be More Disruptive Than You Think

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chairman Jamie Dimon said the unwinding of central bank bond-buying programs is an unprecedented challenge that may be more disruptive than people think.
    ‘We’ve never have had QE like this before, we’ve never had unwinding like this before,’ Dimon said at a conference in Paris Tuesday. ‘Obviously that should say something to you about the risk that might mean, because we’ve never lived with it before.’
    Central banks led by the U.S. Federal Reserve are preparing to reverse massive asset purchases made after the financial crisis as their economies recover and interest rates rise. The Fed alone has seen its bond portfolio swell to $4.5 trillion, an amount it wants to reduce without roiling longer-term interest rates. Minutes of the Fed’s June 13-14 meeting indicate policy makers want to begin the balance-sheet process this year.
    ‘When that happens of size or substance, it could be a little more disruptive than people think,’ Dimon said. ‘We act like we know exactly how it’s going to happen and we don’t.’
    Cumulatively, the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan bulked up their balance sheets to almost $14 trillion. The unwind of such a large amount of assets has the potential to influence a slew of markets, from stocks and bonds to currencies and even real estate.

    This post was published at bloomberg


  • Unwinding QE will be ‘More Disruptive than People Think’: JP Morgan CEO Dimon

    ‘We act like we know exactly how it’s going to happen, and we don’t.’
    ‘We’ve never had QE like this before, and we’ve never had unwinding like this before,’ said JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon at the Europlace finance conference in Paris. ‘Obviously that should say something to you about the risk that might mean, because we’ve never lived with it before.’
    He was referring to the Fed’s plan to unwind QE, shedding Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities on its balance sheet. The Fed will likely announce the kick-off this year, possibly at its September meeting.
    According to its plan, there will be a phase-in period. It will unload $10 billion the first month and raise that to $50 billion over the next 12 months. Then it will continue at that pace to achieve its ‘balance sheet normalization.’ Just like the Fed ‘created’ this money during QE to buy these assets, it will ‘destroy’ this money at a rate of $50 billion a month, or $600 billion a year. It’s the reverse of QE, with reverse effects.
    Other central banks are in a similar boat. The Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the ECB together have loaded up their balance sheets with $14 trillion in assets. Unwinding this is going to have some impact – likely reversing some of the asset price inflation in stocks, bonds, real estate, and other markets that these gigantic bouts of asset buying have caused.

    This post was published at Wolf Street on Jul 12, 2017.