• Tag Archives ETF
  • Asian Metals Market Update: September-21-2017

    A December interest rate hike and more hikes next year is more or less a certainty. This is the first time this year that the Federal Reserve has been very clear on the US economy and the US interest rate cycle. Any reduction on North Korean risk can result in another wave of sell off for gold and silver. The fall is good for a sustained medium term rise in gold and silver. Indian demand for gold will rise for the next month. I can expect the media to be filled with all kinds of bearish views on gold and silver. I prefer to use the sharp fall (if any) in gold and silver for the rest of the year to invest for a period of three years and more. Once again my preference will always be for physical gold as opposed to a gold ETF. I will be looking for price bottom formation every day for medium term opportunities.
    China has a holiday from 1st October to 6th October. On 9th October the USA is closed. In between we have the US September nonfarm payrolls on 6th October. Chinese are the great gobblers of gold. I expect massive Indian demand and massive Chinese demand for gold (if they continue to fall) on or before 30th September.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 21 September 2017.

  • Traders Yawn After Fed’s “Great Unwind”

    One day after the much anticipated Fed announcement in which Yellen unveiled the “Great Unwinding” of a decade of aggressive stimulus, it has been a mostly quiet session as the Fed’s intentions had been widely telegraphed (besides the December rate hike which now appears assured), despite a spate of other central bank announcements, most notably out of Japan and Norway, both of which kept policy unchanged as expected.
    ‘Yesterday was a momentous day – the beginning of the end of QE,’ Bhanu Baweja a cross-asset strategist at UBS, told Bloomberg TV. ‘The market for the first time is now moving closer to the dots as opposed to the dots moving towards the market. There’s more to come on that front. ‘
    Despite the excitement, S&P futures are unchanged, holding near all-time high as European and Asian shares rise in volumeless, rangebound trade, and oil retreated while the dollar edged marginally lower through the European session after yesterday’s Fed-inspired rally which sent the the dollar to a two-month high versus the yen on Thursday and sent bonds and commodities lower. Along with dollar bulls, European bank stocks cheered the coming higher interest rates which should help their profits, rising over 1.5% as a weaker euro helped the STOXX 600. Shorter-term, 2-year U. S. government bond yields steadied after hitting their highest in nine years.
    ‘Initial reaction is fairly straightforward,’ said Saxo Bank head of FX strategy John Hardy. ‘They (the Fed) still kept the December hike (signal) in there and the market is being reluctantly tugged in the direction of having to price that in.’
    The key central bank event overnight was the BoJ, which kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected with NIRP maintained at -0.10% and the 10yr yield target at around 0%. The BoJ stated that the decision on yield curve control was made by 8-1 decision in which known reflationist Kataoka dissented as he viewed that it was insufficient to meeting inflation goal by around fiscal 2019, although surprisingly he did not propose a preferred regime. BOJ head Kuroda spoke after the BoJ announcement, sticking to his usual rhetoric: he stated that the bank will not move away from its 2% inflation target although the BOJ “still have a distance to 2% price targe” and aded that buying equity ETFs was key to hitting the bank’s inflation target, resulting in some marginal weakness in JPY as he spoke, leaving USD/JPY to break past FOMC highs, and print fresh session highs through 112.70, the highest in two months, although it has since pared some losses.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 21, 2017.

  • Ahead Of The Fed, A Reminder: Gross Vega On VIX ETFs Just Hit A “Staggering” All Time High

    What if the Fed surprised today, and instead of only announcing a reduction in its balance sheet, it also sent an uber-hawkish signal by hiking rates 25 bps, something which virtually nobody expected? While stocks would certainly suffer an adverse reaction, as the Fed confirmed that its intention was to burst one or more asset bubbles, it may be just what many in the market desire.
    The reason for that is the active trader community has been growing increasingly bearish in recent weeks, and in anticipation of a potential downside shock as stocks trade at all time highs, it has been aggressively putting on hedges. One place where this is visible is in S&P 500 options where the put to call ratio has climbed to its highest level in more than two years according to Bloomberg.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 20, 2017.

  • Fed’s Asset Bubbles Now At The Mercy Of The Rest Of The World’s Central Bankers

    “Like watching paint dry,” is how The Fed describes the beginning of the end of its experiment with massively inflating its balance sheet to save the world. As former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, however, Yellen’s decision today means the risk-suppression boot is on the other foot (or feet) of The SNB, The ECB, and The BoJ; as he writes, “have no fear, The SNB knows what it’s doing.”
    As we reported previously, In the second quarter of the year, one in which unlike in Q1 fund flows showed a persistent and perplexing outflow from US stocks, a trading desk rumor emerged that even as institutional traders dumped stocks and retail investors piled into ETFs, a “mystery” central bank was quietly bidding up risk assets by aggressively buying stocks.
    The answer was revealed this morning when the hedge fund known as the “Swiss National Bank” posted its latest 13-F holdings. What it showed is that, as rumored, the Swiss National Bank had gone on another aggressive buying spree in the second quarter, and following its record purchases in the first quarter, the central bank boosted its total equity holdings to an all time high $84.3 billion, up 5% or $4.1 billion from the $80.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 20, 2017.

  • Gold Investment Resuming

    Gold has surged dramatically to major breakouts since its usual summer-doldrums lows. That’s naturally rekindled interest in this leading alternative investment, despite the record-high stock markets. Investors are starting to return to gold again to prudently diversify their stock-heavy portfolios. That’s very bullish for gold, as investment capital inflows can persist for months or even years. This shift is most evident in GLD.
    The American SPDR Gold Shares is the world’s leading and dominant gold exchange-traded fund. Since its birth way back in November 2004, it has acted as a conduit for the vast pools of stock-market capital to migrate into and out of physical gold bullion. The marginal gold investment demand, and sometimes supply, via GLD can be big and varies wildly. Thus GLD-share trading is often gold’s primary short-term driver.
    The definitive arbiter of global gold supply and demand is the venerable World Gold Council. It publishes highly-anticipated quarterly reports called Gold Demand Trends. They offer the best reads available on global gold fundamentals. At first glance, it’s not apparent why gold-ETF demand plays such a massive role in driving gold’s price action. But digging a little deeper makes this crucial-to-understand relationship clearer.
    According to the WGC, over the past 5 years from 2012 to 2016 jewelry demand averaged about 54% of overall global gold demand. Total investment demand including physical bars and coins in addition to gold ETFs averaged just 26%. Breaking that category down further into bars and coins separate from ETFs, they weighed in at averages of 28% and -2% of world gold demand respectively over the past 5 years.

    This post was published at ZEAL LLC on September 15, 2017.

  • Anti-Gold Puppet Now Hints Gold Will Soar

    Several representatives of the elitists have been warning about a major global financial crisis. Recently the former Head of the Monetary and Economics Department at the Bank of International Settlements, the Central Bank of Central Banks, warned that there are ‘more dangers now than in 2007.’
    Goldman Sachs commodities analyst, Jeff Currie, who is infamous for incorrectly predicting gold would drop to $800 about three years ago, recently advised anyone listening to own physical gold: ‘don’t buy futures or ETFs…buy the real thing. . .the lesson learned was that if gold liquidity dries up along with the broader market, so does your hedge, unless it’s physical gold in a vault, the true hedge of last resort.’

    This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on Dave Kranzler.

  • Meanwhile, In Lithium Markets…

    The last week – since China unveiled its hypocritical plan to ban petrol cars – has seen record inflows into Lithium-related funds.
    Trading volumes have exploded higher and prices for LIT (the Lithium and Battery Tech ETF) are back to near 6 year highs.
    Never one to miss out on an opportunity, LME is reportedly looking to introduce a contract for lithium (via Mining-Journal.com)…
    While details were scarce on the ground, SP Angel expects that the contract would be tied to lithium carbonate concentrate, a major traded raw material for lithium processors and battery producers, and also possibly a contract for lithium hydroxide, a value added product preferred by some downstream consumers.
    Both would likely have strict quality controls which might add to costs, SP Angel said.
    When contacted by Mining Journal for comment on the possible contracts, a spokesperson for the LME said it had been approached by industry users regarding the introduction of an LME lithium contract and it was looking into this.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 15, 2017.

  • The U.S. Government Massive ONE-DAY Debt Increase Impact On Interest Expense & Silver ETF

    The U. S. Government’s massive one-day debt increase had a profound impact on the amount of money it will have to fork over just to service its interest payment. On Friday, Sept 9th, the U. S. Treasury increased the total debt by a stunning $318 billion. Thus, the total U. S. Government debt increased from $19.84 trillion on Thursday to $20.16 trillion on Friday.
    We must remember when the U. S Treasury adds more debt to its balance sheet; the government is now obligated to pay additional funds to service the interest on that debt. So, for each increase in U. S. Government debt, comes with it, an increase in its debt service payment.

    This post was published at SRSrocco Report on SEPTEMBER 12, 2017.

  • If Everything’s So Awesome, Why Did This Happen Yesterday?

    Monday saw US equities ramp exuberantly on the back of a one-way street in USDJPY as the narrative proclaimed that “the world didn’t end” and therefore we should buy stocks. There’s just one thing…
    The biggest bond ETF in the world saw the biggest inflow of funds in its history at the same time.
    In fact, TLT – BlackRock’s 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has seen no outflows for 12 days.
    Inflows have averaged over $150 million per day for the last week, which, as @SentimentTrader explains has led to significant gains 3-, 6-, and 12-months later…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 12, 2017.

  • WTF Chart Of The Day: BoJ Now Owns 75% of Japanese ETFs

    While ECB President Mario Draghi faces his own German-bond-market constraints in his hubristic bond-buying-bonanza, cornering him to taper sooner than later; the Bank of Japan appears to have thrown every textbook out of the window and cranked their plunge-protection to ’11’, as Bloomberg reports, The Bank of Japan now holds 75% of the nation’s ETFs.
    Since December 2010 – when The Bank of Japan held no ETFs at all – the central bank has been buying ETFs (doubling its annual buying target to 6 trillion yen in July 2016) as part of unprecedented economic stimulus. While the Nikkei 225 Stock Average has risen 89% since December 2010, the BOJ’s dominance of the ETF market has raised concerns.
    In fact, in a circular vicious cycle, the Bank of Japan’s purchases have helped assets managed by ETFs surge almost 10-fold since the end of 2010 to 25 trillion yen ($230 billion).

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 11, 2017.

  • SWOT Analysis: The Gold Rally Is Looking Good

    The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, followed by silver. Gold traders and analysts are bullish for a 12th straight week, reports Bloomberg, as the yellow metal is on its way to the highest price in a year. With tensions from North Korea, coupled with a weaker U. S. dollar, volume on the COMEX in New York hit a record in August. Some 6.55 million contracts, worth nearly $900 billion now, changed hands last month. Bob Savage, CEO of Track Research, cites North Korea as the biggest investor worry right now and believes that ‘the safe-haven to watch into this mess remains gold.’ In addition, last week investors poured $1 billion into the largest ETF backed by bullion, Bloomberg reports. U. S. jobless claims jumped by the most since 2012, reports Bloomberg, and in combination with dollar weakness, sent gold surging to a one-year high. Mid-week, the yellow metal remained little changed as President Trump agreed to a three-month debt limit extension, along with Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer resigning. India is planning for a new spot gold exchange in November, reports Scrap Register and Sharps Pixley. The new exchange should boost transparency, help measure inspection and repair a fragmented jewelry industry. Currently in India, gold is traded on exchanges as futures only. According to the article, earlier in 2013, authorities halted trading on the National Spot Exchange, and since then spot gold hasn’t been trading in the spot market.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 11 September 2017.

  • “Bannon Declares War On The GOP”: Key Highlights From His 60 Minutes Interview

    Steve Bannon appeared on 60 Minutes Sunday night in his first-ever TV interview. The full interview, which Charlie Rose defined as the one in which “Bannon declared war on the GOP“, can be watched, with a full transcript, below (link):
    Here is Charlie Rose’s introduction:
    Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, during his brief tenure in the West Wing and his few months as CEO of President Trump’s campaign, earned many nicknames among his admirers and his ever-expanding list of enemies. He was the “great manipulator,” “Trump’s Svengali,” “the Grim Reaper,” “Propagandist-in-chief.”
    He describes himself as a “streetfighter.” And he proved it in this, his first-ever television interview. Bannon is back running Breitbart News — the website where the alt-right and conspiracy theories meet conventional conservatives. The streetfighter, shiv-in-hand came ready to brawl, and not with liberals or Democrats.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 10, 2017.

  • Major Gold-Stock Breakouts

    The gold stocks are off to the races again, with big gains mounting. They just staged major breakouts, shattering a vexing consolidation that had trapped them for an entire year. Such momentum early in gold’s strong season is a very-bullish portent. As higher prices improve both technicals and sentiment, buying begets more buying. With gold-stock prices still quite low in secular terms, their upside remains huge.
    Gold stocks are a small contrarian sector without a wide following. So their latest surge has surprised many investors and speculators. But it shouldn’t have. In the markets knowledge is profits, so staying informed about gold stocks’ fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment is crucial. The traders who did their homework this summer and bought in low when few others were willing are now sitting on fat unrealized gains.
    Nearly every summer like clockwork, gold stocks slump to a summer-doldrums low. Gold miners’ profits and hence ultimately stock prices are driven by prevailing gold prices. And gold investment demand has always tended to slump seasonally in summers. On July 7th, the flagship HUI NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index, which is closely mirrored by the leading GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, hit a demoralizing low of 178.9.
    The gold-stock sector was down 1.9% YTD in a year where gold had rallied 5.4% over that span. That very day, I published an essay titled Gold Stocks’ Summer Bottom. I explained why summer gold-stock weakness is a great buying opportunity, concluding ‘So smart contrarians willing to fight the herd to deploy when it’s unpopular are subsequently richly rewarded when gold stocks’ seasonal rallies march much higher.’

    This post was published at ZEAL LLC on September 8, 2017.

  • Gold-Backed ETF Holdings Surge in August Signaling Strong Demand for Gold

    Gold flowed into gold-backed exchange-traded funds in August, signalling robust demand for the yellow metal.
    According to the World Gold Council, gold-backed ETF holdings increase by 31.4 tons in August to 2,295 in total global gold holdings.
    Gold ETFs account for a significant part of the gold market. ETF holdings are on par with the foreign reserve gold holdings of France and Italy.
    North America led inflows in August. Investors added 27.8 tons of gold through funds listed in the region. That represents a dollar increase of $1.3 billion.
    Funds based in Europe also saw a net increase, taking in 6.4 tons, or $322 million last month. Asian funds saw a net decrease of 2.4 tons.
    The combined liquidity of gold ETFs rose month-over- month to $1.23 billion per day, near its annual average of $1.22 billion per day.

    This post was published at Schiffgold on SEPTEMBER 6, 2017.

  • Gold Bullion +16% YTD vs Weak Dollar Yet European Gold ETFs Grow Faster

    Gold bullion held $5 below yesterday’s late spike to 12-month highs in Asian and London action on Wednesday, trading at $1340 per ounce after a key US Fed policymaker said weak inflation warns against raising interest rates and new data showed gold-backed ETFs expanding strongly in August.
    Consumer demand and physical buying in the wholesale bullion market remained weak, however, with the Shanghai premium, over and above comparable London quotes, slipping below $3 per ounce as the Chinese Yen rose to new 14-month highs against the Dollar.
    That was the weakest level incentive for new gold bullion imports to China – the world’s No.1 miner, importer and consumer market – since September last year, and barely 30% of the last 18 months’ average.
    Demand in the No.2 consumer market of India also remained weak Wednesday as prices rose for a fifth day running, with dealers reporting wider discounts to the global benchmark of London quotes from last week’s $6 level despite the approaching peak festival season.
    Asian stock markets meantime followed New York lower after Tuesday’s drop in US equities as reports said North Korea’s latest nuclear weapons tests “caused numerous and widespread landslides“.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 09/06/2017.

  • Long Term Statistics on AAPL

    Introductory Remarks by PT Below we present a recent article by the Mole discussing a number of technical statistics on the behavior of AAPL over time. Since the company has the largest market cap in the US stock market (~ USD 850 billion – a valuation that exceeds that of entire industries), it is the biggest component of capitalization-weighted big cap indexes and the ETFs based on them. It is also a component of the price-weighted DJIA. It is fair to say that the performance of AAPL is not unimportant for the broad market.
    We are not surprised that the long term statistics on AAPL reveal that its performance in September is on average the by far weakest of the entire year. This is in line with the stock market’s overall seasonal patterns (see ‘The Dangerous Season Begins Now’ by Dimitri Speck for the details). It is important to keep in mind that these average data do not mean the stock will always perform badly in September. That is certainly not the case – but the probability that it will perform badly (and the broad market along with it) is fairly high.
    Given the current fundamental and technical backdrop this may be particularly important this year. On the fundamental side, we have a sharp decrease in US money supply growth – which is the most important driver of stock prices in a fiat money regime (its effects are subject to a lag, the length of which varies depending on contingent circumstances). Meanwhile, the technical condition of the market looks increasingly dubious. A number of big cap stocks are hitting new highs, but at the same time only 54% of Nasdaq and 61% of NYSE-listed stocks trade above their 200-day moving averages, even after last week’s market rebound. Indexes have begun to diverge noticeably from each other (e.g. the small cap Russell 2000 has weakened against the SPX all year long, after strengthening against it throughout 2016). There was a recent slew of ‘Hindenburg omens’, which indicates fraying trend uniformity as well.

    This post was published at Acting-Man on September 5, 2017.

  • Sentiment Speaks: Greed Is Not Good

    As many of you know, I run a trading room with well over 3000 members, and have over 450 money manager clients. I have seen the good, the bad, and the ugly as far as what traders and investors do through the years. And, no matter how much I warn about the pitfalls in the market, many chose to ignore me, and eventually learn on their own the hard way.
    First, I would suggest you begin by reading an article I wrote several years ago, which should describe what every new trader/investor goes through as they begin their career. And, if it sounds familiar, well, then you are in good company, as most of us have gone through it. The question is if you will learn from it. Unfortunately, most do not.
    Leveraged ETF’s
    But, what makes it even worse is the advent of the leveraged ETF’s, which significantly exacerbate the situation noted in the article above.
    You see, most people do not understand how they work. And, yes, that even includes analysts. They are designed in such a way that if you are not catching a strong trending move perfectly, they will lose money. Even if the market is moving sideways, these leveraged ETF’s lose money. And, if the market moves down, well, they lose money twice or three times as fast. So, unless you are able to time the market absolutely perfectly, then you should NEVER, EVER, EVER buy and hold one of these instruments. They are designed to be a trading vehicle and nothing more.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 4 September 2017.

  • “MAGA”: There Is Now An ETF Investing In Companies That Support The GOP

    / Sep 1, 2017 11:35 AM
    The ongoing ETF insanity, which as of the end of August saw Vanguard fund inflows of $1.6 billion every day (or $100 million every single hour) has now boldly crossed over into the political arena, with the upcoming launch of the “MAGA” ETF, which hopes to “make America great again” by investing exclusively in companies that support the Republican Party, and Trump of course.
    To keep it simple, the Point Bridge GOP Stock Tracker ETF will – as one would expect – list under the ticker ‘MAGA,’ in reference to Trump’s campaign slogan. In addition to MAGA, Hal Lambert, founder of Point Bridge, is planning a set of what it calls Politically Responsible Investing products. MAGA is expected to begin trading on September 7.
    Unlike other ETFs which invest in specific industries, products, or factors, the ETF strategy will instead analyze the political contributions of the employees and the PACs of S&P companies. It will then pick the top 150 Republican stocks based on their contribution data for ETF inclusion. Lambert, a major Texas Republican fundraiser, refers to the approach as ‘politically responsible investing.’
    Speaking to the Daily Caller, Lambert said that ‘corporations have been very active in political contributions and those effect the outcome of elections. Many are now becoming outwardly vocal in their attacks on President Trump and Republican policies to the detriment of their shareholders and the country. Investors need to support the companies that are supportive of President Trump and the Republican Party because that drives policy across the country.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge by Tyler Durden.