• Category Archives Market Commentary
  • WTI/RBOB Pump’n’Dump After Gasoline Build, Production Surge

    Following API’s reported build in gasoline (and distillates), oil prices have chopped around amid Saudi headlines and OPEC jawboning, as all eyes are focused on gasoline inventories in the DOE report. An unexpedted draw in Gasoline (and Crude draw) sent prices higher initially, but another surge in production capped some of the gains and prices fell back.
    API
    Crude -2.72mm (-1.2mm exp) Cushing -1.269mm Gasoline +346k (+500k exp) Distillates +1.837mm DOE
    Crude -2.45mm (-1.2mm exp) Cushing (-579k exp) Gasoline -578k (+500k exp) Distillates +1.08mm (+500k exp)

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.


  • Random Thoughts on this Crazy Charging Stock Market Bull

    In the sphere of thought, absurdity and perversity remain the masters of the world, and their dominion is suspended only for brief periods. Arthur Schopenhauer
    The proverbial question for many years has always been; when will this stock market bull end? By every measure of logic and or common sense, this bull market should have crashed years ago. However, it hasn’t, and much to the angst of many professionals continued its march upwards against all the odds. We would like to stop here and state that this market is now very close to trading in the extremely overbought ranges. A market can trade in the overbought ranges for an extended period. In this instance, we analysed monthly charts, where each bar represents a month’s worth of data. Historically, a market has experienced a correction within 5-10 months from the occurrence of this event. As of yet, the markets are not trading in the extremely overbought ranges on the monthly charts, but they are very close to moving into this zone.
    Why has this market defied the expectations of all the professionals?
    One of the culprits could be the emotional state of the masses. There is something almost insane taking place in this bull market; the higher it trends, the more anxious individuals come. It almost does not make sense as the opposite of this is what normally takes place. Were we not experiencing this first hand, we would find it almost impossible to believe such an event could occur.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 21 June 2017.


  • Keep Your Cash Compounding With This Strategy – Patrick Donohoe Interview

    The following video was published by FutureMoneyTrends on Jun 21, 2017
    Patrick Donohoe joins us in today’s insightful interview to discuss compounding money and long term thinking by using wealth growing strategies.
    We also find out what makes Paradigm Life unique compared to competitors and what added help Clients can expect to receive.


  • “Brazil Now Facing A Major Crisis”: Police Says It Has Evidence President Temer Received Bribes

    Update: and right on time, the Brazilian house speaker confirmed that the worst case scenario – for Temer – is on the table:
    BRAZIL NOW FACING MAJOR CRISIS: HOUSE SPEAKER MAIA BRAZIL JUDGE REJECTS TEMER CRIMINAL COMPLAINT VS JBS’S BATISTA * * *
    Almost exactly one month after Brazil’s stock market crashed, and the Real plunged after the country’s never-ending political drama made a triumphal return following accusations that president Michel Temer had encouraged a “hush money” bribe to former House Speaker Eduardo Cunha in return for not getting dragged into the Carwash scandal, on Tuesday afternoon, Brazil’s federal police force said it has found evidence that the embattled president received bribes to help businesses, Brazil’s O Globo reported.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • WTI Plunges To 7-Month Lows – Enters Bear Market As HY Bonds Crater

    WTI Crude has entered a bear market (down over 20% from its highs) amid concerns OPEC-led output cuts won’t succeed in rebalancing the market (and not helped by the fact that Libya is pumping the most crude in 4 years).
    For the first time since Nov 2016, WTI front-month traded with a $42 handle…
    Here are eight factors that are behind the current fall in oil prices according to Arab News:
    1. High exports from OPEC: Despite the reduction in production from oil producers, the level of exports is still high as many tanker-tracking data showed. Morgan Stanley in a report on June 8 said that tanker-tracking data showed that waterborne exports increased strongly in May across the world, up by 2.2 million bpd from April and 3.3 million bpd from May 2016.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • Oil Plunges To November Lows On Sudden Volume Spike

    Oil dropped to the lowest in seven months, with both Brent and WTI sliding to prices not seen since November, following a burst of volume just after 6am, amid a revival in output from Libya and rising volumes of fuel held in floating storage, although today’s move was likely yet another hedge fund capitulating and liquidating long positions. As a reminder, Pierre Andurand was down 17.3% through end of May.
    Brent hit new year-to-date low at $45.85, after a one-minute burst of volume of a day-high 5,208 lots at 6:04am, taking out a 38.2% Fib support, after a one-minute spike in volume to a day-high 5,208 lots just after 6am. The move could spur a move toward the $44.66 measured support line according to Bloomberg technician Sejul Gokal.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • “Mr. Carlson Said One Of His Clients Had 40% Of His Net Worth In Apple”

    The WSJ has a good article explaining how schizophrenic the tech rally this year has been, with shares of giant tech firms “cropping up everywhere” in the universe of factor-based strats, even contradictory ones. Some examples: “Apple is in five low-volatility ETFs with a collective $14 billion and nine momentum ETFs with $17.7 billion, according to data firm XTF. Alphabet resides in seven low-volatility ETFs and three momentum ETFs, while Microsoft is in 11 low-vol ETFs and four momentum ETFs.”
    That’s not all: Apple is also the fourth-largest position in the iShares Quality Factor ETF , which invests in firms with high returns on equity, low debt and stable earnings growth. At the same time, Apple is a large holding in a separate BlackRock ETF that aims to capture momentum, and it is also the top holding in BlackRock’s iShares Edge Value Factor ETF, representing nearly 10% of the portfolio.
    While in the past different factors offered different investment styles, and at least superficial diversification, the tech juggernaut has made some of the most popular quant strats virtually overlapping.
    This “style creep” means investors holding a mix of seemingly disparate funds in the name of diversification “could be surprised to find heavy concentrations in the same group of in-favor stocks, making them vulnerable in bouts of selling. Rules-based funds and strategies that gradually added tech stocks could sell them in a downturn, adding to price declines.”
    The biggest risk may be volatility itself.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 19, 2017.


  • FANG Falters As Best-Performing Tech Fund Manager Warns “When Things Are This Elevated, It’s Best To Be Cautious”

    Joshua K. Spencer has managed his T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund to become the best-performing mutual fund in the past five years with big bets on Amazon and Tesla is now selling some big winners… and it’s sending FANTASY stocks lower…
    FANG stocks are rolling over…
    And FANTASIA (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Alphabet, SalesForce, Intel, and Apple) stocks are falling back from their 50% retracement…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 19, 2017.


  • Tech Stocks Slammed Last Week: How Scary Is This Market?

    Mark this date on your calendar: Friday, June 9, 2017. That’s the date that the big downward move in the largest tech stocks began. The day also saw a rotation into big bank stocks (which is like swapping a land mine for a hand grenade – there’s going to be an explosion, it’s just a matter of degree).
    The selloff on Friday was triggered by a research report from Robert Boroujerdi of Goldman Sachs. The report compared today’s FAAMG tech stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet) to the highfliers in the tech bubble that crashed in 2000: Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, Oracle and Lucent.
    Boroujerdi used a lexicon that the market did not want to hear: ‘death,’ ‘extremes,’ and ‘difficult to decipher risk narratives.’ The exact sentence went like this:
    ‘This outperformance, driven by secular growth and the death of the reflation narrative, has created positioning extremes, factor crowding and difficult-to-decipher risk narratives (e.g. FAAMG’s realized volatility is now below that of Staples and Utilities).

    This post was published at Wall Street On Parade on June 19, 2017.


  • The World’s Top 100 Companies: Revenue Versus Profits

    Just over a month ago, Visual Capitalist published a very tidy data visualization that summed up the top 50 companies in the world by revenue, based on data from Forbes.
    But, as Jeff Desjardins notes, just looking at revenue numbers doesn’t give a full picture on how these companies compare – and many investors care much more about a different performance metric: profit.
    Roday’s data visualization from Ishtyaq Habib shows the top 100 biggest companies by market value, but uses circles to represent both the revenue and profit for each company. There’s also an interactive version of the same chart here as well, which highlights the specific numbers for each company highlighted.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 19, 2017.


  • Risk… Is How Much You Lose When You’re Wrong

    For the last couple of months, we have discussed the risk of the narrowing of leadership as money piled into an ever reducing number of primarily large-cap technology stocks. To wit:
    ‘This really is a more bizarre clustering of markets and sectors that I have witnessed in quite some time. However, for now, the rotation between sectors remains tight and it is the #FANMAG stocks that continue to elevate markets because of their sheer size. ($FB, $AAPL, $NFLX, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOG)
    The question that continues to linger over the markets is just how stable is the advance? The answer to that question is unclear, but it is quite likely the spat of earnings growth seen over the last couple of quarters will soon end as year-over-year comparisons get decidedly tougher.’
    Last Friday, a news headline questioning valuation levels triggered algorithmic trading programs to reverse and dump those stocks in mass.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 18, 2017.


  • Deutsche Bank: The Market’s Current “Metastability” Will Lead To “Cataclysmic Events”

    With the VIX slammed at the close of trading on “quad-witch” Friday, sending it just shy of single-digits once again and pushing stocks back in the green in the last seconds of trading, the much discussed topic of (near) record low volatility simply refuses to go away, which means even more attempts to i) explain it, ii) predict what ends the current regime of “endemic complacency” and iii) forecast the “catastrophic” damage to markets when it does finally end as JPM’s Kolanovic did earlier this week, when he set the bogey on a modest increase in the VIX from 10 to just 15.
    Overnight, applying his typical James Joycean, stream-of-consciousness approach to capital markets, Deutche Bank’s derivatives analyst Aleksandar Kocic penned his latest metaphysical essay on this topic, which covered most of the above bases, and which postulates that far from “stable” the current market equilibrium is one which can be described as “metastable”, the result of widespread complacency, and which he compares to an avalanche:”a totally innocuous event can trigger a cataclysmic event (e.g. a skier’s scream, or simply continued snowfall until the snow cover is so massive that its own weight triggers an avalanche.”
    He also inverts the conventionally accepted paradigm that lack of volatility means lack of uncertainty, and writes that to the contrary, it is the ubiquitous prevalence of uncertainty that has allowed vol to plunge to its recent all time lows, keeping markets “metastable.”
    How does the regime change from the current “metastable” regime to an “unstable” one? To Kocic the transition will take place when uncertainty, for whatever reason, is eliminated: “Big changes threaten to explode not when uncertainty begins to rise, but when it is withdrawn.” He also points out that while there is punishment for those who seek to defect from a “complacent regime”…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 17, 2017.


  • The Rise Of Robots & The Risk To Passive

    Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
    In Tuesday’s post, ‘A Shot Across The Bow,’ I discussed the recent ‘Tech Wreck’ and the warning sign that was delivered when trading algorithms begin to run in the same direction. To wit:
    ‘The plunge was extremely sharp but fortunately regained composure and shares rebounded. A ‘flash crash.’ One day, we will not be so lucky. But the point I want to highlight here is this is an example of the ‘price vacuum’ that can occur when computers lose control. I can not stress this enough.
    This is THE REASON why the next major crash will be worse than the last.’
    Of course, it generally isn’t long after publishing commentary about the dangers of the current crowding into ETF’s, that I receive some push back.
    Shocker: For fee broker advises against indexing — JiveJoseph_Duarte (@JiveJoey_D) June 13, 2017

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 16, 2017.