Just Charts on an Autumn Afternoon – Noli Illegitimi Carborundum

I was out with the queen for most of the day, cruising out to the Pennsylvania Dutch markets west of where we live, so it is just charts tonight. I believe that I have previously mentioned her own Amish heritage in Lancaster on her father’s side.
As I mentioned yesterday, I think the post-election stock move is running out of steam.
The metals were hit today, about as consciously and deliberately as we have seen this year. You can attribute much of this week’s move in the metals to the dollar crosses, and I have been including the DX charts as usual. But today was very conscious market action, slamming the metals and the miners down to support ahead of next week.
Next week will be a stock option expiration, and the week after the Comex metals option expiry.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 11 NOVEMBER 2016.

Why Some “Flyover States” Switched to Trump

In recent articles and interviews, David Stockman has noted the divergence between economic indicators in large coastal urban centers, and those in the so-called Flyover States. The “flyover zone” constitutes those parts of the country outside the handful of major cities that benefit directly from the Fed’s easy money policies and the ongoing financialization of the economy at the expense of ordinary “main street” industries.
But just how big is this difference? Looking at median incomes can help expose some of the divergence.
In the past, we have looked at median incomes in the United States overall and found that, by several different measures, that median incomes (both household and individual) are declining in the United States.
But what about growth when measured on a state-by-state basis?
When we do this, we do find some very real regional trends, not surprisingly. In the US overall, median houshold income fell 2.2 percent from 2000 to 2015. Meanwhile, while household incomes have been either flat or growing throughout most of the Northeast and the West Coast since 2000, it has been a very different story in the Deep South and the industrial Midwest. Measured for the period from 2000 to 2015.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on November 11, 2016.

The Market, Under a New President

Investors get fearful ahead of a big election because the outcome is unknown. Unknown risks are what investors fear most. Now that the result is decided, we have known risks to deal with.
Investors were also fearful ahead of the 2012 election, which also had a surprising (for some) result. Recall that Gov. Romney had been up by 1-4% in the last polls leading up to that election. Polling that year was admittedly disrupted by the arrival of Hurricane Sandy, which also shut down the stock market for 2 days.
Read What Investors Can Expect From the Trump Revolution
And interestingly, the market now is doing a pretty good imitation of the path of price movements 4 years ago. In 2012 there was a dip into mid-November after the Nov. 6 election. This time it was a dip the week before the Nov. 8 election. But in each case, there has also been a strong rebound after that dip.
You may have heard before that having a Democrat president is better for the stock market than having a Republican president, and there are statistics which can be used to support that. In the following chart, the averages for each category since 1933 are plotted:

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/11/2016.

Gold, Silver Action: The Criminals Are Still In Charge

Out with the old, in with the old. Wall Street and the Fed wants to make nice with Trump so as soon as he accepted the next Presidency, the market manipulators went to work on pushing stocks higher and gold lower.
What happened with the threat issued by the media that if Trump were elected the stock market would crash? Yesterday Stanley Drunkenmiller issued a proclamation that he sold gold because inflation was coming. I do not believe that I have EVER come across any reference to the notion that gold in inversely correlated with inflation. Someone must’ve slipped Drunkenmiller some LSD in his scotch. But, then again, Drunkenmiller is part of the Soros family, which means he’s the enemy of the people and the truth.
The economic thesis connected to Trump is infrastructure spending and inflation generation. The insanely overvalued, over leveraged ‘infrastructure’ stocks like Caterpiller and Terex screamed higher the last few days. But if Trump has his way with his economic ideas, corporate taxes will be cut and the Government will re-do the work Obama did on the infrastructure. Bridges to nowhere funded by more Government debt.

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on November 11, 2016.

Caught On Tape: California High School Girl Attacked For Supporting Trump

A female student, Jade Armenio, of Woodside High School, located just outside of Palo Alto in Northern California, was viciously attacked after posting her support of Donald Trump on Instagram. According to an account of the incident from The Mercury News, the attack came from a student who approached Armenio and exclaimed “You support Trump. You hate Mexicans.”
‘This girl comes up to me and she said, ‘Do you hate Mexicans?’ and I was like, ‘no,’ and she said, ‘You support Trump. You hate Mexicans,’ ‘ she said in an interview with KGO-TV. Not long after, the girl removed her eyeglasses and punched Jade, threw her to the ground and continued hitting her, according to multiple student cellphone videos obtained by this newspaper. Jade was left with a bloody nose, scratches and bruises.
‘She’s pretty shaken up, and rightfully so,’ said Todd Armenio, who noted that his family does support the president-elect. ‘It makes me sick to my stomach that people would do this to other people. It’s sickening, and no one has the right to touch another person.’


This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 11, 2016.

NOV 10/HUGE ADDITION OF 5.34 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD/HUGE 949,000 OZ ADDED TO THE SLV, YET SILVER RISES BUT GOLD WHACKED/SPROTT FUNDS IN GOLD AND IN SILVER NEGATIVE IN NAV FOR FIRST TIME IN QUITE…

Gold closed at $1265.60 down $7.10
silver closed at $18.72: UP 36 cents.
Access market prices:
Gold: 1277.40
Silver: 18.47
The boys raided gold today but not silver. I honestly thought that the raids would stop once the election was over but I am wrong. It sure seems that the powers to be are very worried about the financial system as bond yields skyrocket across the globe. Underwriting banks loathe to see huge volatility in yields and no doubt we will see huge smoke stacks shortly.
The boys may be worried about the huge number of gold contracts standing at the comex. It is extremely elevated vs what we witnessed on the exact same day last year.
It probably is both of these facts that are bothering them greatly and thus the need to raid.
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON .
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
Shanghai morning fix Nov 10 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1293.59
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1287.75 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1293.51
NY ACCESS PRICE: 1287.25 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)
HUGE SPREAD TODAY!! 6.00 dollars
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
London Fix: Nov 10: 5:30 am est: $1281.40 (NY: same time: $1282.35 5:30AM)???
London Second fix Nov 10: 10 am est: $1267.50 (NY same time: $1267.00 , 10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 10, 2016.

THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF DONALD TRUMP

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of New Economic Perspectives. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
Economic consequences A lot has been said already. For me, this was the culmination of a decades-long process where the Democrats sold out their progressive agenda and happily embraced the Republican’s neoliberal economic policies. For some of the best analysis, see here, here, here and here.
My own view is that the Democrats have not had an economic policy of their own for nearly half a century, just an ‘inferior’ version of what Republicans usually champion – tax cuts on the wealthy, dismantling the public safety-net, ‘fighting’ inflation by creating unemployment, market liberalization and deregulation across the board, which among other things brought us a colossal financial sector that has cannibalized the productive economy.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on November 10, 2016.

Traders Breathe Greatest “Sigh Of Relief” Ever Following Election – What Happens Next?

Via Dana Lyons’ Tumblr,
Stock market volatility expectations saw the biggest drop on record following the election.
In the buildup to the presidential election, we queried whether ‘Investors Were Over-Prepared For Election Volatility?’. The reason behind that observation was that near-term (e.g., 9-Day) volatility expectations, via the VXST, had jumped to the 3rd highest level ever relative to the 1-Month VIX. This was despite just moderate stock declines at the time. It was obvious that they were nervous about something, i.e., the election, other than mere price declines. But had they gone overboard with their volatility bets?
We looked back at similar historical extremes and came to a somewhat surprising discovery. As we stated in that November 1 post:
Now, normally our inclination upon seeing a sentiment reading at an extreme would be to fade it. After all, the crowd is notoriously wrong at extremes. However, the funny thing about this VXST/VIX indicator (and much of the volatility trade in general) is that the extremes are often warranted, at least in the short-term.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 11, 2016.

The Inconvenient Truth Behind Donald Trump’s Victory

Submitted by Paul Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Following the BREXIT vote in late June and passionate support for the Bernie Sanders campaign, the Presidential election of Donald Trump provided yet another sign that the American people, as well as many around the world, are increasingly demanding a new economic path. This piece is not written to opine on the election or the merits of Donald Trump. The intent is to highlight, through the use of a few charts, that the nation’s economic policy for the last 30 years has failed greatly and hollowed out the middle class. The consequences have been accumulating for years but have been camouflaged by ever increasing, but unsuccessful attempts to reignite economic growth.
The graphs below provide evidence that despite the narratives of the Federal Reserve, media pundits and most policy wonks, the economy is failing most Americans. While there are many ways to show the deterioration of the U. S. economy and the consequences endured by its citizens, we selected charts we deem to be the most telling. We hope that no matter who you voted for, you study these graphs to better understand the impetus behind Trump’s victory. More importantly, we hope this helps everyone better grasp why economic policy must change before the consequences become dire.
As a supplement to these charts, we highly recommend reading or re-reading our important article ‘The Death of the Virtuous Cycle’. In that piece we identify and diagnose what we consider the most significant issue facing the United States and other developed market economies.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 11, 2016.

Come In Off The Ledge

Have you ever seen a Presidential candidate openly support the 10th Amendment for real when it comes to an issue he or she personally is on the other side of?
Watch this one folks:

Let’s put some context on this.
Donald Trump does not use any intoxicants and never has. He does not drink, and never has. He does not smoke weed, and never has. Unlike most of the other Presidential candidates (and Presidents) we’ve had in the 40ish years I’ve been sentient enough to have a cogent opinion of the political landscape he simply never has partaken of anything that intentionally alters his mental state for recreational purposes.


This post was published at Market-Ticker on 2016-11-11.

Surging Bond Yields Signalling Pain Not Growth Ahead For US Economy

Submitted by Guy Manno via CrushTheMarket.com,
The US election results are in and the US stock market is enjoying a sharp rally over the shock news of Donald Trump winning the election and becoming the new President elect. On the back of the big rally in US stocks there has also been another big shift occurring in another very important asset class, US Government bonds.
US Government Bond Yields Surging Since the news of the results of the US election were released US Government bonds have experienced a huge sell off in prices causing the yields to surge on Government bonds ranging from the 2 year bond all the way to the long end with 30 year Government bonds. (Note: Bond yields move inversely to bond prices.)Specifically the US 10 yr Govt bond has seen the yield jump from around 1.80% before the election results to the current price of around 2.13%. (See chart below)
In the chart below you can see the magnitude of the rise in US 10 yr bond yield reaching the same level of the S&P 500 dividend yield.
Traditionally bond yields help to price the relative value of stocks. If bond yields rise the dividend yield on stocks would also have to rise. Usually stock dividend yields are above bond yields to entice investors to own riskier stocks over more conservative bonds. For the yield to rise on stocks either dividends would need to rise and or stocks would have to fall in price to lift the dividend yields.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 11, 2016.

Wall Street Heads Spin Over Trump Weighing Dimon for Treasury and Restoring Glass-Steagall

Yesterday, CNBC announced that anonymous sources had told the cable business news outlet that Trump’s advisers were considering JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon for U. S. Treasury Secretary. The rumor nugget was quickly spread by other media outlets. The likelihood is that the rumor is coming from Jamie Dimon’s hyper-charged public relations machine rather than from Trump’s closest advisers.
Should Dimon get the nomination from Trump he would have to appear before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing. He would be facing hostility from progressive Senate Democrats on the Committee like Senators Elizabeth Warren, Sherrod Brown and Jeff Merkley for overseeing a Wall Street mega bank that has garnered an unprecedented three felony counts from the U. S. Justice Department in just the past three years while Dimon took home massive pay and bonuses.

This post was published at Wall Street On Parade on November 11, 2016.

Europe, Pacific See 10 Basis Point Rise In Sovereign Yields (End Of Bond Super-bubble?)

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
Yesterday saw US Treasury 10 year yields rising around 20 basis points and the 10Y-2Y yield curve spiking to 116 basis points. Now it is Europe and the Pacific’s turn. As of 7:42am EST, we are seeing 10 basis point increases in 10-year European sovereign bond yields in most countries, most notably in Germany, France and Italy.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on November 10, 2016.

NOV 9/TRUMP WINS THE USA ELECTION AS THE BANKERS RAID GOLD/SILVER WHILE THE DOW/NASDAQ DOES A HUGE OUTSIDE UPSIDE DAY REVERSAL/RUSSIA’S HUGE CARRIER FLEET PARKED JUST OUTSIDE OF SYRIA READY TO LA…

Gold closed at $1272.60 down $0.80
silver closed at $18.36: UP 3 cents.
Access market prices:
Gold: 1277.40
Silver: 18.47
Today was quite a roller coaster day for our precious metals as our bankers are getting quite nervous at having a non establishment guy in the White House. Trump will be good for gold as he spends on infrastructure driving up debt utilizing QE as the Fed will no doubt accommodate him. We have many stories for you today on what a Trump presidency means to you
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON .
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
Shanghai morning fix Nov 9 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1299.82
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1311.70 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1326.88
NY ACCESS PRICE: 1315.00 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)
HUGE SPREAD TODAY!! -11 dollars
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
London Fix: Nov 9: 5:30 am est: $1304.55 (NY: same time: $1301.90.00: 5:30AM)
London Second fix Nov 9: 10 am est: $1281.40 (NY same time: $1283.65 , 10 AM) ???
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 9, 2016.

Regardless Of Price, Gold Investment Demand Increases On Rising Market Uncertainty

Global gold investment demand has increased due to rising uncertainty in the financial markets and the unpredictability associated with a new Trump Presidency. Not only has gold investment demand surged this year, sales of the U. S. Mint Gold Eagles spiked the day after the U. S. President election.
Interestingly, the current price action in gold and silver seems to suggest that market has no need for top two precious metals. While the gold price spiked to almost $1,340 late Tuesday night when Trump began to lead in the Presidential election, it has continued lower to $1,226 on early Friday trading.
The gold price chart above shows the huge spike during early morning trading on Nov 8th. Of course, gold was behaving exactly as many in the gold community forecasted if Donald Trump won the Presidential election. However, later that day, the broader markets rallied into record territory while the gold price continued to fall.
On the other hand, as the Dow Jones surged 500 points to a new record over 18,800 points, the oil price continues to weaken. In just the past three weeks, the price of West Texas Crude is down 16% from $51.5 to $43.5 today.

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on November 11, 2016.

Trump Not Seeking Full Repeal Of Dodd-Frank; Opposes Bank Bailout Provision

One of the bigger surprises to emerge from the initial attempts by the Trump transition team to frame the president-elect’s policy yesterday, was what was dubbed at full repeal of Dodd-Frank, a move which has been seen by some as surprisingly pro-banker friendly.
Specifically, this is what the website says on the topic of Dodd-Frank:
Following the financial crisis, Congress enacted the Dodd-Frank Act, a sprawling and complex piece of legislation that has unleashed hundreds of new rules and several new bureaucratic agencies. The proponents of Dodd-Frank promised that it would lift our economy. Yet now, six years later, the American people remain stuck in the slowest, weakest, most tepid recovery since the Great Depression. Paychecks have been stagnant. Savings are being depleted, millions are unemployed or underemployed, and millions more have dropped out of the workforce altogether. Economic growth remains below 2%, about half the historic average. The big banks got bigger while community financial institutions have disappeared at a rate of one per day, and taxpayers remain on the hook for bailing out financial firms deemed “too big to fail.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 11, 2016.