Shipbuilding in Japan, Korea, China Collapses in Death Spiral of Orders

‘Worse than the one following the Global Financial Crisis.’
New orders received by Chinese shipyards – now infamous for undercutting competitors and sinking into bankruptcy – have plunged 58.5% so far this year through October, compared to last year, according to shipping industry data provider BIMCO, cited by the Nikkei. At South Korean shipyards, which include the three largest in the world, orders have plunged 84.2%; at Japanese shipyards, 90%.
They all focused on large dry-bulk vessels, tankers, and containerships. But this year, orders for tankers globally plunged 80% and for container ships 84%.
Global trade, which collapsed during the Financial Crisis but then recovered in a V-shaped manner, was expected to continue soaring. Instead, it has languished over the past few years. Carriers that transport these goods in dry-bulk vessels, tankers, and container ships, face rampant overcapacity and crushed shipping rates. Smaller ones have sunk. In August, Hanjin, the sixth largest carrier and a formerly too-big-to-fail company in South Korea, was allowed to fail. And they all stopped ordering ships.
However, orders at European shipyards have jumped 45% through the first eight months this year. On the global scale, they’re small players, accounting for only 9.3% of the order book. But they focus on the smaller thriving market for cruise ships, ferries, and tugs.

This post was published at Wolf Street on November 24, 2016.

Gold Price Skyrockets in India after Currency Ban – Part III

When Money Dies
In part-I of the dispatch we talked about what happened during the first two days after Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi banned Rs 500 and Rs 1000 banknotes, comprising of 88% of the monetary value of cash in circulation. In part-II, we talked about the scenes, chaos, desperation, and massive loss of productive capacity that this ban had led to over the next few days.
Now, two weeks later, the situation is getting much worse, and more desperate. It is obvious that Modi single-handedly took the decision to ban the banknotes, with most people in his cabinet and virtually all in the central bank oblivious to his plan.
There is virtually no visible opposition to the enforced ban, for any politician who opposes the ban risks having his own misdeeds – and they are all corrupt – brought to the public space by Modi. A true demagogue, Modi, has already convinced the gullible, salaried middle class that anyone who opposes the ban is hiding corrupt money and is anti-national.
With every passing day, it has not only become clearer that the ban was of no use to eradicate hidden cash, but has also inflicted deep, wide and irreparable damage to the society. The economy is rapidly moving toward stagnation. The lives of literally hundreds of millions are in deep chaos.
This event may well go down in the history books as one of the worst man-made crises ever.

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 25, 2016.

James Wesley Rawles: ‘Double Up On Your Prepping,’ They Can’t Hold Back Collapse Much Longer

3) Don't fughet Obama is leaving us a Ponzi scheme, added ~8 trillions in debt with rates at 0. If they rise, costs of deficit explode…
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) November 20, 2016

Enjoy your turkey, family events and holiday cheer. Enjoy the changing political environment and the strange sense of normalcy that has returned since the end of the election.
None of it is likely to last. 2017 may prove to be pretty brutal.
Now that the Western world has turned in the direction of Trump and Brexit, it may be that the bankster class is prepared to start the next phase.
The pressure that has been building since the 2008 economic crisis is poised to topple the system again. As reputed author James Wesley Rawles of points out, negative interest rates and big debt governing under Obama have set us up for a fall. Easy money, cheap money and free flowing, unlimited credit to the top of the heap have brought things to a desperate point of no return.

This post was published at shtfplan on November 23rd, 2016.

India Economy Falls into Chaos – Dollar Rise in Huge Demand

US dollars are soaring in premiums on the street. There is a serious risk that the government has shaken the confidence of the people to such a degree, that they trust the US dollar more than their own currency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has come out an said the currency changeover could still take a few weeks and could lead to inconveniences, according to the magazine Brics. The Indian economy is a highly cash transacted economy far more so than the United States and Europe. The government has brought the economy to a virtually standstill. Food stores are close to closing because the customers have no money. Small and medium-sized enterprises have stopped functioning because the invoices are not paid for.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Nov 25, 2016.

Michael Pento Exclusive: Trump Honeymoon Won’t Last, 2017 Crash Likely

Cheap Money to Continue Flowing & Helicopter Money to Start after 2017 Crash
Listen to the Podcast Audio: Click Here
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U. S. Debt Market. Michael is a money manager who ascribes to the Austrian School of Economics and has been a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business News, and also the Money Metals Podcast.
Michael, it’s always great to have you on. Thanks for joining us today and welcome back.
Michael Pento: The best of all that list is the Money Metals Exchange. How’s that, Mike?
Mike Gleason: Well, thank you very much, again, for being generous with your time. Before we go any further, I would be remiss if we didn’t get your thoughts on what we saw with the presidential election. Trump defied the odds and managed to upset the establishment, similar setup to what we saw with Brexit with most pollsters completely missing the boat. They were calling for the mainstream political establishment to come away with the win, only to find out that the other side was pretty worked up and came out to vote in droves. Was it all that surprising that Trump rode a similar wave of dissatisfaction for the status quo to victory? What did you make of how it all played on in the end, Michael?
Michael Pento: It was surprising to the liberal corrupt media, but it wasn’t all that surprising to me. If you look at the fact that Americans haven’t had a real increase in wages and salaries for decades; if you look at the fact that the stock market hasn’t gone really anywhere since QE3 ended in October of 2014 in real terms; if you look at the fact that the economy can’t grow any faster than 2%; if you look at the fact that going back eight years you haven’t gotten any money when you put your deposits in the banking system… if you look at all those factors, it’s not surprising at all that an outsider who wants to drain the swamp would be elected president of the United States.

This post was published at GoldSeek By Mike Gleason /22 November 2016.

Striking Revelation: How Germany Financed Clinton Foundation

It has been proven over and over again that the Clinton Foundation receives large donations from abroad. However, a striking revelation came recently when it turned out that a German state institution was also among its sponsors.
According to Sputnik Germany, the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ) appeared on the list of sponsors of the Clinton Foundation on the official website of the latter and is assumed to have donated from one to five million US dollars to the American institution.
As the screenshot shows, there is a **symbol after the name of the organization which, as explained below, means that the donated amount also includes subsidies from the state.
Some Internet users from Germany have already expressed their criticism in this context.
‘Oh no, does it belong to the federation?! Our government has just donated a million or two to the Clinton Foundation?!’ a comment said.

This post was published at Lew Rockwell on November 23, 2016.

Trump, OPEC, & Game Theory

‘It’s not whether you win or lose, but whether you win!’. Source: Reddit
Nobody has any real idea what President-elect Donald Trump has planned.
It is quite possible he himself doesn’t know.
As President-elect we are all forced to take him seriously, but the consequences of taking him literally or not are so wide that most are in a state or confusion.
However, if we look at the situation more closely there may be method to the madness and some potential hints on where we go from here.
Candidate Trump was incredibly successful in covering up his weaknesses by, in effect, making the US election a referendum.
The election was a referendum on the status quo and a vote for Trump was a vote for change, not a vote for the huge range of messages and proposals he put out.
Indeed, by putting out so many messages and controversial statements he attracted different voters for different reasons. So the blue collar worker may have voted against free trade, but the Pennsylvanian Latino may have voted against health insurance premiums jumping 50%. The extreme proposals echoed his negotiation style as he made a bold first step, then walked it back, also allowing voters to justify ignoring his more odious statements.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 24, 2016.

October Was The Worst Month For Hedge Funds Yet This Year

Another month, and the pain for the hedge fund industry just keeps getting more intense.
According to the latest Evestment report, investors redeemed an estimated net $14.2 billion from hedge funds in October. Year-to-date, there has been a net $77.0 billion removed from the industry. October’s outflow was the fourth month of redemptions in the last five and seventh in 2016. Due to the breadth of products experiencing outflows, and the persistence of redemptions outweighing new allocations, it is clear the industry is experiencing a crisis -like wave of negative investor sentiment.
One almost wonders how much higher the market can keep rising with redemption requests flooding countless back offices. We hope to find out soon.
Here are the rest of the details on the latest, ongoing, troubles facing the hedge fund industry which, unless something drastically changes soon may end up being a “zero hedge” industry:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 24, 2016.

Record Run into Gold and Silver Coming

Precious metals expert David Morgan says trillions of dollars of negative interest rate paying bonds is a sign we are getting close to another financial calamity bigger than the last. Morgan explains, ‘Now, as everyone knows, we are even at negative interest rates, and people are buying into this. They are guaranteed to get less back. . . . This is the upside-down world we are living in. This is the scientific planet that is our reality. So, this is the reason you will see a run to the dollar before you see a run to gold. . . . We are in the final step before another 1% of the population takes action into the precious metals. When the run starts, it won’t be because 90% of the population wakes up and says I need precious metals to protect my financial wellbeing. What will happen is another 1% will wake up and say I need precious metals to protect my financial wellbeing. That will double the market. The physical gold market is less than 1% of all financial assets, and the silver market is about .02% of all financial assets. So, it doesn’t take a big amount of new money to put the paper price at stratospheric levels, and that’s what will take place. When people don’t trust the dollar they are holding in their hands, when that happens, there will be a run into gold that will be in the financial record books. . . . The dollar is going up, up and up, and it will peak. Once it starts down, it will start down kind of slowly, and then, it will build momentum. Then, it will hit terminal velocity. It will hit a level that it has accelerated to its maximum point and will continue until it hits the ground. . . . As that occurs, more and more people will be motivated to move into the precious metals. The door is very narrow, and there will be a big flood of people wishing to get through that door. It’s going to come down to you will either have it or you won’t.’

This post was published at Silver-Investor on November 24, 2016.

The Perfect Storm Set To Pop Aussie Apartment Bubble Bringing The Economy Down With It

The Aussie apartment boom that has turned into an epic bubble with record, sky-high prices, is showing all the signs for the perfect storm which will ultimately pop. With the popping of the apartment boom, it will simultaneously bring down the Australian economy, as the apartment market is set to have a sizeable correction in 2017 and 2018.
A short Look At Australia’s Real Estate Market
Australian real estate prices have been going up for over 25 years with hardly a pause in between since the late 80’s. The last time real estate prices fell considerably was when Australia last had an official economic recession back in 1987, when interest rates skyrocketed to around 17-18%.
The chart below show the price growth of real estate, rents and CPI since mid 1987. Initially the price growth of Australia’s real estate market climbed steadily taking 11 years to double in 1988. From there the price growth continued to accelerate with the next 100% increase in price taking 4.5 years to reach.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 24, 2016.

Dollar Shortage Goes Mainstream: When Will The Fed Confess?

Last week we posted the report by ADM ISI’s Paul Mylchreest ‘Dollar Liquidity Threat is Getting Critical and the Fed is M. I. A’which summarized some of the key points in the ongoing, second phase of global dollar shortage, profiled here first in the start of 2015 and validated recently by the BIS. We discussed the bitter (and all too predictable) irony that the Federal Reserve doesn’t ‘get it’, having recently declared that that liquidity in financial markets was ‘adequate.’
It isn’t.
More than 68,000 hits later, we suspect that many ZH readers are tracking the dollar liquidity crisis (and Fed ignorance) via the negativity in Cross Currency Basis Swaps (CCBS). The 3-month Yen/Dollar CCBS has made a new low of 81.75 bp (swapping Yen into dollars for 3 months costs 81.75bp annualised above covered interest parity) implying that the structural dollar shortage is deteriorating.
While we’ve been writing about dollar shortages since the GFC, Mylchreest traced the timeline of the current shortage back to the first RMB devaluation in February 2014. He noted that it’s the one thing that even the central banks struggle to control… think Swiss Franc peg (SNB), impact on carry trade and the Yen (BoJ) and the severe weakness that we’re seeing in the RMB (PBoC). Indeed, a ‘glaring omission’ is the failure of the Fed to set-up a dollar swap arrangement with the PBoC.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 24, 2016.

Guess Who Suddenly Cares About the Debt Again

I hope you’re sitting down.
Paul Krugman is suddenly concerned about the deficit and the national debt again.
For years he’s been calling us ‘deficit scolds’ for wanting to cut spending. He’s gone so far as to say that the efficiency of stimulus spending doesn’t even matter – just spend on whatever. Increase that deficit one way or another.
Now that a Republican is taking office, Krugman is changing his tune.
Once you’ve recovered from the overwhelming force of that shocking surprise, check out episode #61 of Contra Krugman, my weekly podcast with Bob Murphy:

This post was published at The Tom Woods Show on 23rd November 2016.

Rickards: Elements For Financial Lockdown Are In Place

This post Rickards: Elements For Financial Lockdown Are In Place appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
James G. Rickards joined up with the Mises Institute to discuss his latest book out now, The Road to Ruin and how the financial lockdown could come sooner than expected. During the conversation Jim Rickards speaks with Jeff Deist and highlights the financial elites plan for the looming economic crisis, the central bank agenda and highlights exactly how people can protect themselves.
‘The elites see the crisis coming. That is something they are sharing with each other, not everyday citizens.’ He went on to note his specific research and said that, ‘It is not speculation. All the elements to lock down the financial system, freeze your money, shut down ATMs has all been done before. That is what is happening now. All the elements are in place.’
James Rickards is a New York Times best selling author and has worked with the US intelligence community in advising on international economic issues. Rickards spent over three decades working in capital markets on Wall Street and within the financial sector. If you’d like to learn how to get your own free copy of Rickards latest book, The Road to Ruin, and have it sent directly to your doorstep, click here for more information.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on November 23, 2016.

On A Personal Note…

With raw newsflow in the financial, political, economic and geopolitical realms hurtling ever faster – scrambling toward some yet unknown climax – facilitated by a world that has never been more interconnected, and where the noise to signal ratio (especially over the past few months courtesy of certain… events) has hit unprecedented levels, sometime we get so focused on trying to share our own, unique (we hope) vision and take on things, that we lose connection, and direct communication, with the only thing that really matters for this little project: our readers.
That would be you.
Without you, dear reader, this website would not exist.
The truth is that while we always try to represent, interpret and explain events as they happen objectively and in real time (a challenge which at times is literally painful) we may not get everything right or accurate, but we try.
We try to do as well as we can within the confines of our modest staffing, infrastructure and financial capabilities. Unlike media behemoths and “titans” of industry, many of whom have infinitely more in resources and outside “access”, our growth is only possible if you – dear reader – keep coming back. Incidentally, and contrary to various amusing rumors, Zero Hedge does not, and has never had any financial, political, or any other affiliation or relation to an external entity or organization; no we are not funded by the KGB, no we are not on Trump’s secret payroll, no we have never raised one dollar of outside funding. From day one, all our revenue has been through advertising, and your kind donations.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 24, 2016.

Silver Enters Bear Market As Hedgies Flee

After tagging $19 the night of Trump’s victory, Silver prices have tumbled 15% (the biggest drop since Summer 2013’s taper tantrum). However, as large speculators dumped their longs en masse, this week also marked another milestone as Silver drops 24% from its post-Brexit peak (above $21) and entered a bear market once again.
As the dollar surges, Bloomberg reports that gold and silver holdings in exchange-traded funds are set for the biggest monthly drop in more than three years.
‘Everyone is looking for a December rate hike, and that’s what’s been priced into gold and silver at the moment,’ Tom Kendall, head of precious metals strategy at ICBC Standard Bank Plc, said by phone from London.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 24, 2016.

Is This The Reason Why Gold Prices Are Plunging?

While the optics of a soaring stock market and crashing safe-havens (gold and bonds) fits nicely with the election of Donald Trump as the next US president, a closer look shows gold prices beginning to break hours earlier. As India unleashed its demonetization scheme, local retail gold prices began to surge as rumors began to spread of an Indian gold import ban. As rumors have continued, precious metals prices have plunged as the 700 tons of gold imports to India would be a major demand shock for the bullion market.
As MarketWatch reports, back in August 1971, President Nixon shocked the world by taking the dollar off the gold standard. The dollar had been on gold standard since Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. The biggest bombshell for gold investors in 45 years since Nixon announcement may be ahead. That bombshell is a potential ban on import of gold into India. If this happens, there is a high probability of a one-day drop in gold that could reach $200.
The chart shows how Modi selling overcame Trump buying…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 24, 2016.

How Much Government Debt Rests Upon Your Shoulders?

The graphic for the US is far too optimistic. They don’t count the debt related to Social Security. There are nothing but IOU’s in the lockbox. Just using $20 trillion gets you to $60k per person. How about the $200 trillion of unfunded welfare liabilities? That puts the number at $660k per person. Tell that to a snowflake millennial and see the look on their face.
With the U. S. National Debt closing in on the $20 trillion mark, there has been a lot of conversation in Washington about debt and its role in government. And most of that conversation right now revolves around President-elect Donald Trump.

This post was published at The Burning Platform on November 24, 2016.

Is Nigel Farage Moving To The US

Donald Trump nearly sparked a diplomatic scandal earlier this week when he tweeted that Nigel Farage, the interim UKIP leader and the lead Brexit campaigner, would be great as Britain’s ambassador to Washington, a suggestions which Theresa May’s government quickly dismissed saying there was “no vacancy” as Kim Darroch is currently serving as ambassador to Washington, and leading to an outpouring of protests from the UK press accusing Trump of meddling in sovereign affairs.
When asked by ITV television about Farage’s ambassadorial ambitions, finance minister Philip Hammond said if he ever needed advice from the leader of the UK Independence Party, he had his telephone number. “Tell him not to hold his breath,” he added.
However Farage – a long-time supporter of Donald Trump – appears to have enjoyed the barb, and as Reuters reports, he taunted PM May with a mock ambassador’s reception complete with
chocolate and champagne. At a party at London’s Ritz hotel, Farage was cheered by his financial backers before offering guests pyramids of Ferrero Rocher chocolates, “a joking reference to a long-running and much-lampooned ‘ambassador’s reception’ TV advert in which the gold-foiled confection is cast as the delicacy of choice for diplomats.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 24, 2016.

Market Talk – November 24th, 2016

The Yen weakness continues to off-set the Nikkei strength with today breaching the 113 level and spending most of the day trading weaker. The Nikkei rallied closing up 0.9% with exporters leading the gains given the currency play. Volumes were light but then that should have been expected given the US holidays but we remain focused on Europe, the ECB, the US and the recent decline in the price of gold. In China the PBOC set the Yuan at 6.9085 but the off-shore traded up to 6.9660 we saw small gains (0.4%) in the Shanghai index. The INR also losing ground again, as what might be called, excessive regulation are implemented restricting gold imports and stifling cash exchanges. The exchange rate remains under the 2013 lows but many see it as only a matter of time before these levels are breached.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Nov 24, 2016.