What the Heck’s going on with Foreclosures? Why this Spike?

Foreclosures suddenly spike most since the last Housing Bust
The total number of homes with foreclosure filings jumped 27% in October from September, when they’d been at the lowest level since 2006. It was the biggest jump in monthly foreclosure filings since August 2007.
Compared to October last year, homes with foreclosure filings still decreased, but this nationwide decrease is covering up what is now happening in 28 states and Washington D. C., according to the Foreclosure Report by ATTOM Data Solutions. There, the inventory of homes with foreclosure filings is beginning to rise even on a year-over year basis. And in some states it soared year-over-year:
Colorado 64% Georgia 22% Pennsylvania 20% Arizona 17% Virginia 15% Massachusetts 11% New York 10%

This post was published at Wolf Street on November 10, 2016.

Toward A New World Order?

A Brave New World is coming? Perhaps. We had a recent discussion with a group of people in the hopeless business of doing long term forecasting. This made us think about what the world will look like over the next 20 to 40 years. A pretty thankless task, but the bottom line is without a damn good war, Asia will be the way of the future.
As an experiment, assume, as most long term forecasters do, that both Europe and the US have reached a mature plateau where growth will average around 1.5 to 2 per cent over the long term, while China will slowly decelerate from the current 6.5 to 3 per cent and India from today`s 7 to around 4. In this scenario (which we do not necessarily believe in, as China is up for en epic crash) what will be the share of global GDP by, say, 2060? And what are the geopolitical implications?
Using data from Angus Maddison, the IMF and then extrapolating with our simple assumptions (which are just as good as any) we get the following picture.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 10, 2016.

Making Yields Great Again: Trump Unleashes A “Bigly Rates Repricing”

The past two days have seen some historic moves in US Treasury rates, where as a result of a Yuuuge repricing in the long end…
… which have seen 30Y TSYs plunge 5% since Trump’s win, a stark reminder of just what “duration” means…
… leading to the biggest drop in 30Y TSYs since October 2011, when the Fed bailed out the world…
… sending the Yield on the 10Y to perfectly match the S&P500’s dividend yield.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 10, 2016.

Citi Would Like To Know Why “Markets Don’t Seem To Care” About Fundamentals

While Q3 earnings season has been better than expected, and the 5-consecutive quarter earnings recession is set to end, the bigger picture reveals something troubling: a secular corporate decline as revenue growth continues to be absent, and sales decline quarter after quarter. This is what shown in the following Citi chart, which also points out that while revenue declines normally trigger a sell-off, this can be avoided if companies return capital to shareholders by increasing payouts, which is precisely what they have been doing.

As we reported recently, traditionally increased payouts are financed with credit, and this time – as Barclays showed recently – the amount of new credit going to fund payouts has been higher than ever.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 10, 2016.

Heh Heh Heh….

Oh look, we’re saved, the banks can make more money due to higher rates!
Uh, did you forget something?
What has driven the market over the last six, seven years?
Extremely low rates and therefore greatly increased borrowing, an enormous percentage of which was used to buy back stock and pay dividends.
That’s over. It was over before the election, but now we know that “low and flat” as a trajectory for rates, the benign case, is far less-likely.
Most bubbles end this way. Financials get the last gasp of buying and price appreciation while those that have been consuming that cheap credit begin to underperform and then roll over.
Then the defaults start, the debt loads cause negative earnings and forced dividend cuts (which are magnified due to lower share counts in EPS terms) and finally, the financials collapse.

This post was published at Market-Ticker on 2016-11-10.

The Trump Triumph: Dow Hits Record High Amid Bond Bloodbath, Currency Carnage, And Tech Turmoil

An archaically-weighted index of just 30 companies’ stocks reached an all-time record high as the most widely held stocks collapse, emerging market currencies crash, and bonds around the world are seeing unprecedented spikes in yields…
So – The Dow hit an all-time record high today… (Goldman, JPMorgan, IBM, and UnitedHealth 180 points between them)
But Nasdaq plunged back into the red from the election…(Dow Futures are up from 17418 to 18821 – up 1400 points)

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 10, 2016.

Midnight in America

Stunned political analysts are missing the most plausible argument explaining Donald Trump’s unexpected victory. The misreading of the American electorate stems from the political class’ acceptance of mistaken (and increasingly insane) economic dogma that has arisen over the past generation. Based on their flawed understanding of economics, the pundits could simply not understand why the electorate had become totally disillusioned.
According to the ideas favored by economists on Wall Street, in government, and in the Federal Reserve, Americans should be enjoying a marginally good economy. Unemployment is low, home values and the stock markets are high, credit is cheap and plentiful, prices are stable, auto sales are robust, healthcare is available to all, and GDP is growing, albeit at levels that are below optimal. These are conditions that would normally favor the incumbent party, and would discourage voters from taking a chance on an unknown who has promised to tear down the entire system. But that is precisely what happened. There can only be two explanations: Either Trump supporters were motivated by hatred strong enough to cause them to vote against their own economic interests, or they understood the economic reality better than the Ph. D.’s. I believe the people got it right.
In countless commentaries over the last few years, I have argued that the economy has been getting worse, not better, since the Great Recession of 2008. My points were simple. I suggested that the economic signals created by the Government’s deficit spending and the Federal Reserve’s eight year stimulus program were not creating growth but were actually hollowing out the real economy. I argued that prices were rising faster than Washington cared to admit and that inflation was an economic problem for ordinary Americans, not a magic elixir for growth. I argued that unemployment came down only because people either gave up looking for work (and then dropped out of the labor force), or took multiple low paying part-time jobs to compensate for the loss of good-paying full time jobs. I argued that increased workplace regulations, minimum wage increases, and Obamacare would create hostile conditions for small businesses and would stifle job creation. I argued that zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing were simply a benefit for the investor class and did nothing to generate real or sustainable growth (in fact those monetary policies guaranteed stagnation). I argued that these low rates would inflate debt bubbles in the auto and student loan sectors and would set up our economy for years of pain when those bubbles burst.

This post was published at Euro Pac on November 10, 2016.

Caught On Tape: Devastated Democrats Freaking Out Over Trump Victory

With Hillary’s victory basically a foregone conclusion going into Tuesday evening, Trump’s shocking victory has sent some unstable dems over the edge. Luckily, it was all caught on tape. The first video opens up strong with a Hillary supporter who appears to have a complete nervous breakdown on film.
“This has to be a joke. I can not believe this is happening. I’m literally about to fucking kill myself and I’m not kidding. You better fucking fix this shit right now. I’m literally going to die. I need an ambulance.”


This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 10, 2016.

Asian Metals Market Update: November-10-2016

The elected US President is against the zero interest rates policy which the Federal Reserve is following. Depending on how many new jobs start getting created, the Federal Reserve could start a quicker pace of interest rate hike than currently discounted. However a certain section of the market now believes that an interest rate hike in December will be delayed and will be left to Trump’s team to take the call. Gold can fall first and then rise. Gold could also consolidate in wider $1166-$1321-$1447 range till January of next year.
A lot traders were scared of yesterday’s volatility and did not trade. The best way to trade is to have key technical support and resistances. For example yesterday morning when gold started rising on chances of Trump’s win, I gave a long call as long as key resistance of $1307 was breached. Closed the position at $1323. Thereafter when gold started falling from the day’s high of $1338, I gave a short call in gold as soon as it neared $1323 (earlier resistance now becomes the support) and close the position at $1307. In the US session tomorrow, once again a new short call in gold was advised as soon as gold breached the support at $1297 and position was closed at $1285. All I am trying to say is that one needs to have key technical supports and resistances in hand. Days like yesterday are very rare and need to be capitalized. But without proper preparation everything can go haywire.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 10 November 2016.

US Treasury 10 Year Auction Delivers Lowest Bid-to-cover Since March ’09

The 10 year US Treasury auction yesterday produced a new low. The bid-to-cover ratio for the 10 year Treasury fell to 2.220. It is the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since March 2009.
The 10-year bid-to-cover has been falling since July 2012. Here is a nice summary from Bloomberg for the last year.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Lee Adler ‘ November 10, 2016.

US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPENDING SETS NEW RECORD OF $6.6 BILLION

No matter how poor or indebted a country is, there is apparently always enough money for two things: war and elections.
According to gobankingrates.com, the current U. S. presidential race is set to be the most expensive race to date. So far, it has cost at least $6.6 billion USD. As of October 25, 2016, the two major presidential candidates had spent a combined $1.13 billion running for office, compared to $913 million spent at the same point in the 2012 race.
According to Bloomberg, Donald Trump has largely relied on his own wealth and millions of small donations to support his campaign. As of October 19, Trump had contributed $56.2 million of his own money into his own campaign and had spent $429.5 million in total. Clinton, on the other hand, was able to raise a whopping $1.06 billion and had spent $897 million at the same point in time. Bloomberg’s figures demonstrate that gobankingrates.com’s data might have been underestimated.

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on NOVEMBER 10, 2016.

Most Idiotic Comment Ever? ‘Sell Gold Because Inflation Will Spike’

Stanley Druckenmiller said: ‘I sold all my gold (sic) on the night of the election’ because he sees inflation spiking and that will force money(sic) out of gold…hmmm….sell gold because you see inflation coming? That has to be the most idiotic investment rationale I’ve ever come across. Even ‘buy stocks because they keep going higher’ is less dumb than that.
You’ll note the ‘sic’ I added after Drunkenmiller’s comment about ‘gold.’ ‘Sic’ is used after a quoted word (from someone else) that seems odd or out of place. I inserted ‘sic’ after Drunkenmiller’s use of ‘gold’ because he never owned gold. He bought GLD, which is a paper derivative of gold. The only way you own gold is if you buy physical gold and keep it outside the system. GLD is a fraud, just like every other fiat paper ‘asset.’
I also inserted ‘sic’ after his use of the word ‘money’ with respect to ‘money flowing out of gold’ (because he thinks inflation will spike up). Gold is money. It’s the second oldest form of transaction currency – silver being the oldest.

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on November 10, 2016.

Russia Admits “There Were Contacts” With Trump’s Campaign Before Election Day

After repeated denials from Trump’s campaign about any contact with Russia, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov confirmed this morning that ‘there were contacts’ before election night. According to Bloomberg, the connections between Russia and Trump’s campaign were with Russian embassy staff which is considered “normal practice.” That said, and perhaps not terribly surprising, Hillary’s campaign rejected similar meetings.
Russia said it was in contact with President-elect Donald Trump’s team during the U. S. election campaign, despite repeated denials by the Republican candidate’s advisers that any links existed. ‘There were contacts’ before the election, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Thursday, according to the Interfax news service. ‘We continue this work of course,’ he said, without giving details of what the contacts were.
Russian embassy staff met with members of Trump’s campaign, which is ‘normal practice,’ Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told Bloomberg. Democratic Party contender Hillary Clinton’s campaign refused similar requests for meetings, she said.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 10, 2016.

Just Charts – Deny and Defy

It was an absolutely beautiful late Autumn day here, and I could not resist the temptation to be outside working on productive things in the yard.
The deny and defy rally looks to be just about over. Huge divergences today.
It is almost as if the financiers are playing out the script they had agreed upon before the election.
Financials and healthcare are leading the way up on hopes of a friendlier regulatory climate. The sectors that might be affected by a major fiscal stimulus in US infrastructure are feeling the love.
But the market seems very schizophrenic about the future.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 10 NOVEMBER 2016.

World Oil And Its Seven Biggest Chokepoints

It’s common knowledge that most of the world’s oil is transported internationally by tankers. What might not be so commonly known is the fact that almost half of the crude shipped around the world passes through waters where piracy, the danger of terrorist attacks, or the possibility of local governments shutting down the waterway are all too real.
Using new visualization tech, we can map the seven main chokepoints of the global crude oil routes. The map highlights the fact that four of these chokepoints – the biggest ones, at that – are in politically unstable or otherwise unfavorable regions, which could potentially threaten crude oil supplies around the world.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 10, 2016.

Central Bankers Have Destroyed The Economy, Prepare For A Credit And Cash Crisis – Episode 1124a

The following video was published by X22Report on Nov 10, 2016
The market is up for the second day in a row, the reason all these individuals believed that Clinton was going to win and the market was going to go up. October retail hiring is now lower than last year. US company creation has crashed under Obama. The Central bank has failed, the economy has not improved, most of the funds went to the banks and the stock market. India bans cash, gold prices soar.

The Fed’s ‘Hothouse’ Is in Danger

$8 Trillion Transfer
RHINEBECK, New York – It is a beautiful autumnal day here in upstate New York. The trees are red, brown, and yellow. Squirrels hop across the lawn, collecting their nuts. Unseasonably warm the last few days, rain showers are moving in from across the Hudson, driven by a chilly wind.
But today, we talk about money. After all, that’s our beat here at the Diary. Money. Money. Money. We’ve seen how the feds created fake money after ditching the Bretton Woods gold-backed money system in 1971.
And we’ve seen how this fake money perverted, distorted, and corrupted our economy, our government, and even our family lives. We pause here to recall how it even dodged the Constitution.
‘Money matters’ are supposed to be decided by the people’s representatives in the House, and then discussed and approved by the Senate. After all, it’s voters’ money.
But the Fed – without so much as a by-your-leave or a thank-you note – took it upon itself to decide the fate of more than $8 trillion. That is a rough estimate of the amount not paid to savers over the last eight years as a result of the Fed’s ultra-low interest rate policy.
The total transfer is much greater – since stock, bond, real estate, and other asset prices all rose in response to the trillions of dollars of new credits the Fed was putting into the system. This enriched their owners and made those who didn’t own them relatively poorer.

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 10, 2016.

Starring: Paul Krugman As ‘The Idiot’ & Justin Wolfers As ‘The Hack’

Well this election certainly clarified a few things for the people of the world. Most notably is that the experts are clueless.
Paul Krugman, notable ‘expert’ on all things economic has almost 2 million followers on Twitter and an op-ed with the NY Times. This means he has a platform of great influence. And yet, time and time again, he does well to prove he’s an idiot. The following piece posted on election night.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 10, 2016.

Private Sector Establishment Births CRASH!

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Private Sector Establishment ‘Births’ plunged in Q1 2016 to Great Recession levels of 2008. It was the LARGEST DECLINE IN HISTORY!!
Well, the BLS has only tracked this index since 1993.
And during 2014-2015(Q2), Private Sector Establishment ‘Deaths’ were on the rise.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Caleb Crawdad ‘ November 10, 2016.