Election Uncertainty Now Influencing Gold And Silver Prices

Most of us consider this year’s presidential election as the wildest and most unpredictable we’ve ever seen, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the markets. Gold and silver spent most of the past three weeks going nowhere fast. Between Oct. 6th and Oct. 27th silver traded within ten cents of $17.60/oz – an extraordinarily tight range. Precious metals generally thrive on uncertainty, but the markets have been unfazed and instead have appeared to be paralyzed.

It seems Wall Street may not have shared the trepidation many Americans at large have been feeling. That may be about to change.
On Friday, FBI director James Comey, of all people, broke metals prices out of the exceptionally tight cage confining them – although it was still a rather modest move. He announced his agency is re-opening its investigation into Hillary Clinton and her emails. Silver and gold both jumped on the news.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Sunday, 6 November 2016.

JP Morgan et al go M.I.A. on the Job Numbers

The gold price dipped back below the $1,300 spot mark in late morning trading in the Far East on their Friday, with the low tick of the day coming at the London/Zurich open. It was back above $1,300 spot in little over an hour – and the tiny rally on the release of the job numbers got capped at 9 a.m. in New York – and that was pretty much it.
Once again, the high and low ticks aren’t worth looking up.
Gold finished the Friday session at $1,304.00 spot, up $1.80 from Thursday’s close. Net volume was pretty hefty at just under 181,000 contracts.
It was more or less the same price pattern in silver, with the low tick in that precious metal, such as it was, also coming at the London open. From that point, it rallied rather unenthusiastically until around 10:30 a.m. in New York – and didn’t do a lot after that.
The low and high ticks aren’t worth looking up here, either.
Silver closed in New York yesterday at $18.405 spot, up 8 cents on the day. Net volume was very decent as well, at a hair over 49,000 contracts.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Sunday, 6 November 2016.

Five Financial Charts You Need To Watch: Gold, China and More

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of The Daily Reckoning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
This post Five Financial Charts You Need To Watch: Gold, China and More appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
Here are your top 5 financial charts to cap off the week that include Gold, China and more.
Let’s get the graphs rolling out…
Gold Futures Score Fourth Weekly Gain In A Row (MarketWatch)

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Craig Wilson ‘ November 5, 2016.

Not Much Action but Don’t Get Careless

The payrolls report came in pretty much as expected and thus seems to be a non-event for the most part.
The Dollar is slightly weaker, bonds are higher, oil is lower and gold is a tad higher. Mining shares are showing weakness today.
I honestly do not think we are going to get much in the way of any CONSISTENT direction in these major markets ( with the exception of crude oil) until after the election results become clear.
Oil is at a 6-week low with the Baker Hughes rig count up 12 this week to 569. Most of the growth is in the Permian basin.

This post was published at Trader Dan on November 4, 2016.

Another Toilet Paper Crisis: Angola’s Biggest Oil Firm Can’t Even Supply The Basics

It’s not just the Venezuelans that are facing a crisis of living standards due to a hyperinflating currency intertwined with the collapse in oil revenues. As OilPrice.com’s Irina Slav explains, Sonangol, the state oil company of Africa’s current number-one oil producer seems to be in shambles, with the management unable – or unwilling – to pay for washroom supplies, according to employees cited by local media.
Despite becoming China’s largest crude oil supplier in recent months, people working for the company, on which their entire country depends, say they are embarrassed that they have to bring their own toilet paper to work (BYOT). The management, however, is spared this embarrassment, they told Maka Angola – a media outlet close to the opposition.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 5, 2016.

Saturday Humor? Are Americans Too Scared To Consider What Drove Trump’s Resurgence In The Polls?

Are the non-deplorable Americans about to reach the fifth and final “acceptance” stage of Kubler-Ross grieving for a return to the old normal?
WASHINGTON – Claiming it felt queasy just thinking about what the cause could be, the nation’s populace said Monday it was too terrified to look at what Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s recent rise in the polls was attributed to.
‘I know that he just got a pretty big bounce, but frankly, I don’t think I can handle any more information than that,’ said Salem, OR resident Tina Redmond, one of the millions of Americans who had learned of Trump’s 2.5-point increase over the previous week’s polling and were too frightened to find out why.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 5, 2016.

Reports of Rigging the Election Emerging from Texas

Numerous stories are coming in from Texas stating that early voting machines are changingRepublican votes to Clinton. This is not a single conspiracy – early voting fraud is becoming a widespread complaint in Texas. This is going to be a contested election for sure. Our models are showing November as an important turning point. So the election process is part II of our Year From Political Hell.
Armstrong Economics

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Nov 5, 2016.

Come on Moody’s, Give us a Break, Spare us these Falsehoods

Moody’s turns into tax lobbyist for its biggest corporate clients.
Some falsehoods simply refuse to die. No matter how many times they get stabbed in the heart, and no matter who stabs them, they rise again in their full glory.
The falsehood that a vast amount of US corporate cash, including much of Apple’s $250 billion, is ‘locked away overseas’ is one of them. We’ve known since May 2013 from the Senate subcommittee investigation and hearings into Apple’s tax-dodge practices that a big part of corporate ‘overseas cash’ is actually invested in the US.
Now Moody’s Investor Services repeats the same falsehood and explicitly lobbies Congress to give our poor, multinational Corporate Titans with their hardscrabble businesses another tax break.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Wolf Richter ‘ November 5, 2016.

Hillary Accepted Qatar Money Without Notifying Government, While She Was Head Of State Dept

Three weeks ago, when we first reported that Qatar had offered to pay the Clinton Foundation $1 million after a hacked Podesta email disclosed that the ambassador of Qatar ‘Would like to see WJC [William Jefferson Clinton] ‘for five minutes’ in NYC, to present $1 million check that Qatar promised for WJC’s birthday in 2011′, we said that in this particular case, the Clinton Foundation may also be in violation of State Department ethics codes.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 5, 2016.

TBP IS STILL FREE

It was exactly two years ago when my wife and I had the opportunity to meet David Stockman and his wife in NYC. I documented the experience in my article UNEASY IN NYC. After writing articles for the last eight years, I forget about them as I move on to the next subject matter. After re-reading it this morning, I was pretty impressed by my writing and my sense of humor. I found myself laughing at my own stuff.
David had just started his own website and had asked me to be a regular contributor. Over the last two years he has posted dozens of my articles on his site. At the time, my visitor counts were slightly higher than his. But, he is a world renowned financial mind, so it was just a matter of time until his site went soaring far above TBP. He basically wrote one major article per day, while posting the work of 20 or 30 other bright financial minds per day.
I love his articles and the articles of his like minded contributors. I would go there every day to find stuff to re-post on TBP. David and his wife asked about the business aspects of my site. I told them I made virtually nothing from the site. I didn’t require registration and emails to make comments. I had a full-time job and was running the site as a way for my voice to be heard. I could tell they were looking at his site as a potential money making venture.

This post was published at The Burning Platform on November 5, 2016.

The State Of The Debt Union: Red Vs Blue States

“The strongest form of persuasion is fear,” explains Dilbert cartoon creator Scott Adams, and Clinton’s team of persuaders has convinced her followers that Trump is dangerous. As Adams details, if you remove that part of her spell, Trump wins. Here’s how…
1. Trump’s Tough Talk Inspires violence: Ask Clinton supporters if they have seen the Project Veritas video of Clinton operatives talking about paying people to incite violence at Trump rallies. The people on the video have been fired, and we haven’t seen violence at Trump rallies since.
2. Temperament: Ask Clinton supporters if they have seen the video of Clinton ranting ‘Why aren’t I already fifty points ahead?’ She looks either inebriated or deranged. Mention that the people who know Trump personally have reported that he is both smart and sane in person. Even his enemies who know him personally don’t claim he has a temperament problem. If he did, is there any chance we wouldn’t have heard about it by now?
3. Trump might insult foreign leaders into a war: Trump and Putin seem to get along fine. Netanyahu said he could work with Trump. Mexico isn’t likely to start a war over trade, or the wall. Trump says North Korea is China’s problem, which is literally the safest thing you could say. And China’s leaders are adults who know Trump says offensive things now and then. China will pursue its own interests, and none of those interests involve going to war over some words. Likewise, other leaders are adults too. They won’t change their foreign policy over some insults.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 5, 2016.

Doug Noland: The Upshot of Inflationism

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Credit Bubble Bulletin. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
As a determined analyst, I’m as committed as ever to remaining ‘fiercely independent.’ This must at least partially explain why I’ve tended to consider myself politically ‘independent.’ Political party ideologies undoubtedly engender biases and compromise objectivity. With the two major parties now in such a muddle, an ‘independent’ affiliation almost wins by default. I recall years ago when I was first introduced to the notion of ‘the evil party and the stupid party’ in a discussion about our two-party system. That conversation doesn’t seem as deeply cynical these days.
I’m left to daydream of a party committed to a smaller and less obtrusive federal government, strong national defense, fiscal responsibility, social tolerance and attentiveness to the environment. It doesn’t seem all that outlandish. Yet there’s one more thing – perhaps the most vital of all: I aspire to be associated with a political movement committed to sound money and Credit. Why all the clamor over guns when unbridled finance is so much more destructive?
This election cycle has been a national disgrace. It finally comes to an end Tuesday, when a deeply divided nation heads to the polls. I recall having a tinge of hope eight years ago that there was a commitment to more inter-party cooperation and less partisan vitriol. There’s not even lip service this time around. As an optimist, I would like to believe that a period of healing commences Wednesday. The analyst inside knows things will continue to worsen before they get better.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Doug Noland ‘ November 5, 2016.

Goldman Fears “Persistent Headwind To Growth” As State/Tax Revenues Tumble

The latest confirmation that the US economy continues to deteriorate comes not from the Federal Government but from state-level data, where year-over-year growth in state tax revenues slowed dramatically in the last two quarters. As Goldman notes, this has subtracted an average of 0.25 percentage points from GDP growth, raising the question of whether municipal finances could again be a persistent headwind to growth.
Via Goldman Sachs,
For several years following the 2008-9 recession, spending cuts by state and local governments were a meaningful drag on US growth. Faced with declining revenues and constrained by balanced budget rules, most states were forced to retrench, even as the rest of the economy began to recover. State and local government spending declined almost continuously from Q4 2009 through Q1 2014, subtracting an average of about 0.25 percentage points (pp) from annualized GDP growth over this period (Exhibit 1). As budgets eventually recovered, spending began to pick up, and state and local government outlays added about 0.25pp to GDP growth from Q2 2014 through Q1 2016. However, over the last two quarters, spending by states and localities stumbled again, raising the question of whether municipal finances could again be a persistent headwind to growth.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 5, 2016.

Is there a Savings Glut?

Can Saving Possibly ‘Undermine Economic Growth’?
In his speech at the New York Federal Reserve of New York on October 5, 2016, the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer has suggested that a visible decline in the natural interest rate in the US could be on account of the world glut of saving.
According to Fischer, both increased saving and reduced investments have potentially significantly lowered the natural rate of interest. For Fisher and other commentators this could signify that the economy might have fallen into a situation where increased saving undermines the economic growth
Most economists are in agreement that in order to grow an economy, saving is a must. It is saving that funds investment in capital goods like computers, tools, and machinery, which in turn, make the economy more productive. It is argued that, while saving plays an important role in growing an economy, sometimes too much saving can actually be a bad thing.
For instance, it is held that if consumer demand is weak, then more savings will only undermine consumer expenditure and weaken economic growth. After all, it is held, the motor of the economy is consumer expenditure and saving is the opposite of consumption.
According to this way of thinking, if people decide on saving a large proportion of their income, then only a small quantity of output will find a market. Output will have to be low because there will be no demand for larger quantities of production.
Also, it is held that while saving may pave the road to riches for an individual, if the nation as a whole decides to save more, the result may be poverty for all.

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 5, 2016.

Trump or Clinton: What’s Your Fallback Plan?

If Trump wins, Bryan Cranston thinks America is broken bad. He says he will move to Canada.
George Stephanopoulos’ wife says they will start looking at real estate in Australia. He has neither confirmed nor denied.
Good for them. They are verbally serious. Maybe they won’t actually move. They would be walking away from tens of millions of dollars. But at least it sounds impressive. They have a plan. Well, maybe George doesn’t. Maybe he is biding his time. Maybe it will lead to “My Big Fat Greek Divorce.” But she has a plan.
If you think that it makes a serious difference which of these candidates wins, then you should have a fallback plan.
I think it will make a difference in 2020 and thereafter. I think the winner’s party will be swept out of office in 2020. We will get a one-party government. We may even get a Senate in which the losing party does not have 10 votes to sustain a minority filibuster. Then it will really hit the fan.
I think this election is mostly about 2020.
I want gridlock. The thought of a unified government in the middle of a deep recession scares me. I don’t trust either party.
If I had my choice, I would choose the Republicans. The Democrats will repeal ObamaCare and substitute a national health insurance program paid with premiums paid by the federal government. They will increase federal regulation of the economy. They will run massive deficits.
We are in the hands of the Federal Open Market Committee. We always are. That is not an invisible hand.

This post was published at Gary North on November 05, 2016.

More Weakness Ahead in Gold Stocks

The gold stocks continue to correct their epic 150% rebound that began in January and ran into the summer. Last week it was the poor relative strength in the miners that hinted the correction had more to go in both time and price. This week, it was the miners failure at a confluence of resistance, even with Gold trading above $1300, that argued for more weakness ahead. While most of the damage has already been done, our work argues for more weakness before a buying opportunity.
In the daily candle chart below, you can see how this week the miners failed at a confluence of resistance. Over the past four trading days the miners tested but failed at their 50-day moving averages. In addition, GDX failed at $26, which was previous support. Meanwhile, GDXJ failed at $43 which was also previous support.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 4 November 2016.

Gold Prices Today Climb Ahead of Election

With the presidential election nearing, gold prices today continue to climb. Gold is up another 0.1% today, after gaining 4% over the last three weeks. It has now retaken the $1,300 level with ease.
If you just look at what’s been happening to gold in the past week as we quickly approach next Tuesday’s vote, you’ll understand how gold has become the big winner.
Hillary Clinton was the clear leader until the FBI said it would reopen its investigation of her emails. Since then, the gap with Trump has closed dramatically, with only a few points difference. That uncertainty is a boon to gold prices.
HSBC thinks a Clinton victory will send gold prices to $1,400 by year’s end. They say a Trump victory would send the price of goldto $1,500.
Then there’s the Fed. On Wednesday, we had the Fed ‘news,’ announcing that the FOMC had decided not to raise rates at that meeting. Although that was a surprise to no one.
Gold prices had already begun rising last Friday, in anticipation of both this week’s Fed decision and the fast-approaching presidential election.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Peter Krauth ‘ November 4, 2016.

Chris Puplava on Business-Cycle Investing; 2017 Recessionary Risks

There’s been much discussion on FS insider recently of the business cycle and the possibility of a recession in 2017. This time, PFS Group’s Chris Puplava gave us his thoughts about where everything is going, and what he thinks investors need to watch out for to determine the direction of the economy.
The Problem With Buy and Hold
‘Most of the investment community preaches buy-and-hold. The problem with buy-and-hold is, it’s predicated on the precept that you have an indefinite horizon.’
This is flawed, he noted, because it doesn’t take into account the possibility of entering retirement at a bad point in economic activity, such as 2000, where the stock market didn’t go anywhere for 13 years.
Not everyone has the same time horizon, he added, and if an investor just entered retirement and is faced with the possibility of a bear market or recession, then that person absolutely wants to pay attention to the business cycle when it comes to how they invest and the level of risk they take.


This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/04/2016.