Much More Than Trump

‘Revolutions dawn when an appreciable number of the ruled realize their rulers are intellectual and moral inferiors.’
It started in Vietnam. The men who chose to fight for America on Vietnam’s front lines did so for honorable reasons. While there was no immediate threat to the US, some were concerned about falling dominoes and the march of communism. Some were animated by an idealistic desire to secure democracy and liberty in a land that had never known those blessings. Some went believing that if the leaders of the country said this war was in America’s best interests, it must be so. For those who were drafted, they did, perhaps reluctantly, what they perceived to be their duty.
Whatever their motivations, those who fought found their idealism shattered. Many of the South Vietnamese they thought they were fighting ‘for’ despised the US as the latest in a succession of imperial powers using a corrupt, puppet government as the cat’s paw for its domination. Short of total immolation of both friend and foe – it was often impossible to differentiate the two – there was no effective strategy against guerrilla warfare waged by the enemy fighting on its home turf. The Viet Cong proved as difficult to vanquish as hordes of ants and mosquitos at a picnic. The victory the generals and politicians insisted was just another few months and troop deployments down the road never came, and the soldiers knew it never would, long before reality was acknowledged and the troops brought home.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.

94,609,000 adult Americans not in the labor force: In January 2009, 80,529,000 were not in the labor force. Now we’ve added 14 million Americans.

There is truly a silent majority in the United States and those are people that are not in the labor force. It is hard to believe but since January of 2009 we have added a whopping 14 million Americans to the already staggering number of adult Americans that are not in the labor force. Many older Americans are fully reliant on Social Security and are one missed direct deposit from being out on the streets and starving. Adults not in the labor force are largely ignored because they have weak purchasing power. Who is going to advertise to them? Yet this massive group makes up nearly one-third of the entire population. Are we heading to 100,000,000 adult Americans that will no longer be in the labor force?
The not working silent majority
The number of adult Americans not in the labor force has ballooned to ridiculous proportions. This has far outpaced any standard retirement projections. Back in 2006, we had 77,339,000 people that were not in the labor force. Today it is up to 94,609,000 (a stunning increase of 17,270,000 in just ten years).
Take a look at the figures:

This post was published at MyBudget360 on Nov 6, 2016.

“This Ain’t Another Brexit” Traders Scramble To Hedge A Trump Victory

Having previously explained, it’s all about Florida, North Caroline, and Ohio… and what time traders can go to bed on election night, Bloomberg reports on how crazed FX traders are scrambling to figure out just what will happen as the Trump-Clinton saga plays out.
Already the most sensitive risk assets are swinging back on tonight’s headlines…

But, unlike an exit from EU that portended a sharp drop in sterling, the results of Tuesday’s US election could throw up a plethora of possibilities on which way assets could move…
Risk positions are likely to be pared back to near flat into the night of vote count, with liquidity conditions expected to worsen more than after the Brexit vote, if polls pointed to a Trump victory, traders say in interviews Banks, funds and brokerages are now better geared to cope with any wild swings after SNB’s franc jolt in Jan. 2015

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.

Jim Rickards: They’re Going To Lock Down The System

The following video was published by ChrisMartensondotcom on Nov 6, 2016
This week, seasoned financier, risk manager and author Jim Rickards returns to the program to share the predictions from his new book The Road To Ruin: The Global Elite’s Secret Plan For The Next Financial Crisis.
Rickards warns of a coming confidence boundary in central bank omnipotence. Once breached, trust and belief in the central banking cartel quickly vaporizes. Rickards predicts that boundary will be crossed by 2018 or sooner; and when it is, the entire financial system will go into lockdown, freezing access to our money.

Gold Loses $1300 As Stocks, Peso Soar After Comey Clears Clinton (Again)

The first reactions to Comey’s re-bombshell were in currencies with the Mexican peso soaring back below 19/$ and USDJPY spiking to 104.00. Equity futures spiked on the open with Dow soaring 200 points back above 18000…
It appears the rumors were correct on Friday…

Notably the initial spike down in USDMXN is being bought back a little for now…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.

Hillary Cleared As FBI Folds Again: Comey Says “No New Conclusions” After Clinton Email Review

And now the pendulum of Comey backlash swings the other way. Which Republican politician will be the first to press charges against Comey under The Heath Act? And will Harry Reid drop his charges?
In a letter to several committee chairmen released Sunday, FBI Director James Comey announced on Sunday afternoon that just over a week after the FBI reopened its probe into Clinton emails, the Bureau has not changed its July conclusion regarding Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of State.
House Oversight and Government Reform Chairman Jason Chaffetz made waves Sunday afternoon, when he tweeted about the FBI letter.
FBI Dir just informed us "Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Sec Clinton"
— Jason Chaffetz (@jasoninthehouse) November 6, 2016

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.

Despite what Everyone Thinks, Biggest Threat to Mexico’s Economy isn’t Trump but Pemex

The fear of a Donald Trump victory has reached fever pitch in Mexico this weekend, as the nation’s economists pontificate on the potentially devastating effects such an outcome would have on both the country’s currency and its broader economy. In recent weeks, Mexican financial authorities even ordered local banks to stress-test the potential impact on their balance sheets of Trump winning the U. S. presidential election.
They have good reason to be concerned. If Trump wins the election and actually honors some of his pledges, particularly those regarding trade, the immediate fallout for Mexico is likely to be brutal. After all, a staggering 80% of Mexico’s exports go to the U. S. That’s similar to the level of dependence that the Cuban economy had on its trade with the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.
There’s also the threat a Trump victory could pose to the remittances sent by Mexican immigrants from the U. S., which amount to nearly $25 billion each year, roughly 2% of the Mexican gross domestic product, according to the World Bank.
And that’s not to mention the risk posed to the Mexican peso, which for years has been liberally used and abused by traders as a general proxy for global risks. In recent months it has become the number-one hedge against a Trump victory. As election fever – and fear – have risen in the U. S., the peso has experienced one of its most volatile periods in decades, prompting the Mexican Secretary of Finance Jos Antonio Meade Kuribrea to concede that the pressures it faces are so huge that there would be no point in the government or the Bank of Mexico even trying to intervene to bolster its value.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Don Quijones ‘ November 6, 2016.

One Hedge Fund’s “Magic Formula” For Boosting Inflation Involves A Trump Victory

With central bankers desperate to boost inflation both in their country, and around the globe, yet failing to do so for years (especially as measured by the long end of the yield curve) leading to serious economists and pundits going so far as proposing the pinacle of monetary lunacy, such as helicopter money, one person may have stumbled upon the “magic formula” for how to create inflation in the new normal.
Here is One River Asset Management’s Eric Peters laying out his inflationary “revelation”:
‘British spenders have entirely looked through post-Brexit uncertainty,’ said Mark Carney. ‘Consumer jitters were notable by their absence,’ continued the Bank of England governor. UK wages kept growing, confidence remained solid, business investment resilient. So the Bank of England forecast its biggest inflation overshoot since 1997; expecting 2018 price gains to peak at 2.8%. Now, let’s assume that having misjudged every single economic consequence of Brexit, that the BOE miraculously gets this one inflation forecast right.
What’s it tell us?
A populist uprising, compromised free trade, immigration restrictions, a 15% currency devaluation, 0.50% interest rates combined with aggressive QE is today’s magic formula for modestly exceeding a 2% inflation target 2yrs hence.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.

Dallas “Pension Fund Panic” As Mayor Warns Of 130% Property Tax Hike To Avoid Collapse

Over the past year, the biggest casualty to emerge as a result of global NIRP (or close to it) monetary policy have been pension funds, which have had two choices: either suffer losses as yields on new fixed income investments barely cover (and in some case don’t), or scramble for duration (or outright risky investments like junk bonds and high beta stocks).
In August, we created the chart below as a simplistic illustration of the pension “duration dilemma.” The chart graphs how a pension liability grows in a declining interest rate environment versus the value of 5-year and 30-year treasury bonds. As you can see, a $1BN pension that is fully funded at prevailing interest rates would be nearly $700mm underfunded if interest rates declined 300bps and all of their assets were invested in 30-year treasury bonds. The result is obviously even worse if the fund’s assets are invested in shorter duration 5-year treasuries.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.

“Economics Is Broken And There Is No Internal Incentive To Fix It” – 5 Reasons To Smash The Ivory Towers

Summary:
We are experiencing deep economic problems and it is the fault of the economics discipline. Their macro theories suck. But, there is no mechanism forcing it to alter its models when they don’t appear to work.
This is so because economists basically write for each other in a language only they understand and their jobs depend on impressing a limited number of journal editors and referees, not correcting real-world problems. The academic inbreeding that has resulted has led to dysfunctional theories and, despite the fact that there were economists who accurately forecast the Financial Crisis, because their work is incompatible with what is published in ‘good’ journals it has been all but ignored.
Economics is broken and there is no internal incentive to fix it.
There is no question that this has been one of the most divisive presidential campaigns on record. Hatred for each candidate runs deep and whoever becomes the new White House resident on January 20, 2017, many Americans will be bitterly disappointed – perhaps even angry.
And yet, despite all the vitriol and personal attacks, there is something about which both parties and candidates agree: a key problem facing our country is economic stagnation. The middle class is suffering, private-sector debt is weighing us down, government services are being starved of income (especially in education), and full-time jobs with a complete range of benefits are few and far between. What happened to the decades of post-war growth when each of us could safely assume that we’d have a better standard of living than our parents? That’s hard to do when you are living in their basement, trying to pay off your college debt.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.

Not Your “Average” Test For Stocks Here

The ‘average stock’ index is testing its post-2009 uptrend.
Some junctures are more significant than others in the markets. Coming into the week, it didn’t immediately occur to us that we were on the verge of such an important juncture across asset classes. However, the fact that our Trendline Wednesday feature on Twitter and StockTwits included an unprecedentedly large number of assets and indices suggests that we are indeed at a significant juncture.
One such index pertaining to the equity market that we did not cover on Wednesday is the Value Line Arithmetic Index (VLA). It measures the ‘average performance’ among a universe of roughly 1800 stocks. Because of its construction, it is an important barometer of the health of the overall market. The VLA’s present relevance here is due to the fact that it is testing its Up trendline stemming from the lows in 2009, currently around 4700.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.

U.S. ELECTIONS ‘NOVEMBER CHAOS’: WHAT YOU’RE NOT BEING TOLD

The FBI’s October surprise has thrown the 2016 election into November chaos. But an examination of the trigger mechanism behind this event reveals a deeper layer of manipulation by the media and financial interests behind the election. This is the GRTV Backgrounder with your host James Corbett. This report also includes an Interview with Prof. Michel Chossudovsky.


This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on NOVEMBER 4, 2016.

Trump Reacts: “It’s A Rigged System, Hillary Is Protected”; Paul Ryan, RNC, Trump Campaign All Issue Statements On FBI Decision

If FBI conclusions remain unchanged, that means she still was reckless & careless, still lied about classified info, lied re: # of devices
— Kellyanne Conway (@KellyannePolls) November 6, 2016

The stunned reactions to Comey’s shocking announcement are coming in fast and furious, as moments ago, Donald Trump – during a live speech – made the opening salvo by saying “it’s a rigged system, and she’s protected.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.

“I Don’t Want To Work ‘For’ The Government”

If Clinton wins, Dilbert Creator Scott Adams would think hard about retiring early and “becoming a user of resources instead of a creator of resources.”
As Adams explains,
My current tax rate is about half of my income when you add up all of the various taxes. I don’t have many deductions. Clinton proposes an estate tax that would take about half of what is left. In effect, Clinton wants my tax rate to be around 75% for every dollar I earn today.
That level of taxation would make me feel like a government employee. The vast majority of my time and energy would go toward making money that politicians would decide how to spend. That doesn’t feel like a rewarding life. If Clinton wins, I would think hard about retiring early and becoming a user of resources instead of a creator of resources. Because I don’t want a government job.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.

Doug Band Accuses Chelsea Of Using Clinton Foundation Money To Pay For Her Wedding

A couple of days ago we shared a Podesta email from Doug Band about Chelsea talking openly in public about her “internal investigation” into the Clinton Foundation.
As with many of the Doug Band email chains, the rabbit hole just got a little deeper today with Band accusing of Chelsea of “using foundation resources for her wedding and life for a decade” among other accusations. He also concludes with another veiled threat on the consequences “once we go down this road….”
The investigation into her getting paid for campaigning, using foundation resources for her wedding and life for a decade, taxes on money from her parents….
I hope that you will speak to her and end this
Once we go down this road….

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.

Chelsea Clinton’s Husband Used Clinton Foundation To Raise Cash For His Hedge Fund

That Teneo’s Doug Band was not a fan of Chelsea Clinton, with whom he had a long-running feud as a result of her ongoing accusations that he was taking advantage of Bill Clinton’s presence to enrich himself (even though thanks to a leaked memo we now know for a fact just how Teneo was working as a pass through, pay-for-play vehicle to enrich both Clinton and Band), we have known for a while (and reported on again just moments ago, when in one of the latest Podesta emails, he accused her of using Foundation cash to pay for her wedding).
We now learn that Band was also not a fan of Chelsea’s husband, Marc Mezvinsky, co-founder of the hedge fund Eaglevale Partners, which had received substantial seed funding from Goldman Sachs, and which suffered massive losses with its wrong-way bet on Greek bonds.
In an email from January 18, 2012, Doug Band tells John Podesta and Cheryl Mills that “Marc mez[vinsky] had an idea to put together a poker night for the foundation to raise money. His raising money for his own fund hasn’t been going well and he has cvc [Chelsea Clinton] making some calls for him to get mtgs with some clinton people.”
What Band was accusing “Mez” of doing is that since he was unable to raise cash for his hedge fund on his own, he came looking for the help of his wife, Chelsea, who is Vice Chairman of the Foundation bearing her last name.
Band then says that “Marc has invited several potential investors and a few current business ones to the poker night. I assume all are contributing to the foundation, which of course isn’t the point. What is the point is that he is doing precisely what he accused me of doing as the entire plan of his has been to use this for his business which he is.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2016.