On the Verge of Consumer Exhaustion

Jon Blogosphere, Economy, Fiscal Policies, Market Commentary

Fourth Quarter GDPNow Forecast Sinks to 1.8%
Following today’s personal income report in which consumer spending rose only 0.1% month-over-month, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for fourth quarter declined 0.5%.

“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.8 percent on November 25, down from 2.3 percent on November 18. The forecast for the fourth-quarter rate of real consumer spending declined from 3.1 percent to 2.2 percent after this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.”
The latest Blue-Chip forecast for early November was 2.7%, a highly unlikely number at this stage unless season spending picks up big time.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on November 25, 2015.