Gold And Silver At Make Or Break Level, As Dollar Breaks Out Big Time!

The metals sold off last week. Gold is testing righ now its August lows. This is a critical price level, gold bulls would like to see this price level hold, otherwise a washout (capitulation-alike) decline could be in the cards. As for silver, it is holding up slightly better.
According to the Andrews Pitchfork methodology from PitchforkPlayground.com, gold has been whacked hard as the US Dollar rallies. Support is occurring at the lower median line extension of the modified-Schiff pitchfork and the July/August lows.

This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on November 9, 2015.

Obama’s Trade Deal Will Bankrupt Canada’s Farming Industry “Overnight”, Expert Says

Earlier this month, in ‘Forget China: This Extremely “Developed” Country Just Suffered Its Biggest Money Outflow Ever,’ we took a close look at Canada, where slumping crude prices are beginning to take a serious toll. As we noted, citing BofAML, Canada’s basic balance – a combination of the capital and the current account: a measure of national accounts that spans everything from trade to financial-market flows – swung from a surplus of 4.2% of GDP to a deficit of 7.9% in the 12 months ending in June. That’s the fastest one-year deterioration among 10 major developed nations.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/09/2015.

About That Surge In Retail & Construction Jobs

As one witty observer noted over the weekend, “no one with an IQ greater than their shoe size, save corrupt, captured American economists, buys the fake October unemployment report,” and while we agreed with the pretext of his thesis, we thought a quick sanity check on the sudden surges in Retail employment and Construction jobs and wage growth would help clarify a few things for those who ‘believe’ in miracles. As the following two simple charts show, we have seen this odious pattern of mal-investment, mis-allocation, and erroneous executuve extrapolation before… and it did not end well.
First – Retail..
Something stinks. Retail stock prices have been plunging (despite the promises of increased spending amid expectations of wage growth – which today NYFed admitted was at its lowest on record) and just tonight we see Banana Republic see Same Store Sales collapse 15% and Gap overall down 4%.
We have seen this before…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/09/2015.

We Have Never Seen Global Trade Collapse This Dramatically Outside Of A Major Recession

If you have been watching for the next major global economic downturn, you can now stop waiting, because it has officially arrived. Never before in history has global trade collapsed this dramatically outside of a major worldwide recession. And this makes perfect sense – when global economic activity is increasing there is more demand for goods and services around the world, and when global economic activity is decreasing there is less demand for goods and services around the world. So far this year, global trade is down about 8.4 percent, and over the past 30 days the Baltic Dry Index has been absolutely plummeting. A month ago it was sitting at a reading of 809, but now it has fallen all the way to 628. However, it is when you look at the trade numbers for specific countries that the numbers become particularly startling.
Just within the last few days, new trade numbers have come out of China. China accounts for approximately one-fifth of all global factory exports, and for many years Chinese export growth has helped fuel the overall global economy.
But now Chinese exports are falling. In October, Chinese exports were down 6.9 percent compared to a year ago. That follows a decline of 3.7 percent in September.
The numbers for Chinese imports are even worse. Chinese imports in October were down 18.8 percent compared to a year ago after falling 20.4 percent in September. China’s growing middle class was supposed to help lead a global economic recovery, but that simply is not happening.
The following chart from Zero Hedge shows just how dramatic these latest numbers are compared to what we are accustomed to witnessing. As you can see, the only time Chinese trade numbers have been this bad for this long was during the major global recession of 2008 and 2009…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on November 9th, 2015.

Ron Paul: Unless the Fed is Stopped, America Will ‘Soon Experience Major Economic Crisis’

Ron Paul has written another column advocating the auditing of, and eventually shutting down, the Federal Reserve system.
Until the United States has the political will to tackle this important issue, America is in grave danger of ‘a series of ever-worsening economic crises’ which will wear down the purchasing power of the dollar while further eroding the standard of living for everyone.
In stark terms, Dr. Paul warns that this country and the world will ‘soon experience a major economic crisis’ unless they change course on monetary and economic policy.
via the Ron Paul Institute:
Last week Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen hinted that the Federal Reserve Board will increase interest rates at the board’s December meeting… However, there are several reasons to doubt that the Fed will increase rates anytime in the near future.
[…] The failure of the Fed’s policies of massive money creation, corporate bailouts, and quantitative easing to produce economic growth is a sign that the fiat money system’s day of reckoning is near. The only way to prevent the monetary system’s inevitable crash from causing a major economic crisis is the restoration of a free-market monetary policy.

This post was published at shtfplan on November 9th, 2015.

Shares Of World’s Largest Miner Plunge To Seven-Year Low After Massive Toxic Mudslide Engulfs Brazilian Village

Ok, so if you’re the world’s largest mining company, one thing you don’t want is a global deflationary supply glut brought on by depressed demand from China and a worldwide excess capacity problem.
Another thing you don’t want is for a tailings dam to burst, sending a river of toxic mud into a nearby village in South America.
Well, BHP Billiton is now dealing with both of those issues and the market is punishing the stock, which hit a seven-year low on Monday as analysts and investors alike attempt to figure out how the company intends to clean up a spectacular (in a bad way) mess in Minas Gerais.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/09/2015.

Russia & China Are Now Creating A Separate Gold Market Away From The Dollar – Episode 813a

The following video was published by X22Report on Nov 9, 2015
The jobs number are manipulated to make everyone believe we are in a recovery. The industrial depression is in full swing and Caterpillar is now selling its equipment at a 90% discount. The Baltic Dry Index continues to implode. US debt is 3 times larger than the government is telling us. The war on cash is in its test phase and it will be spreading to other countries. ECB now looking to push negative interest rates further. Russia and China are planning on creating a gold system that will be separate and apart from the private western central bank system, bypassing the dollar. TPP is terrible for Canada and the US people

Pocketbook Pain: The Rapidly Rising Cost Of Living Is Absolutely Killing The Middle Class In America

All over America, the middle class is dying and poverty is on the rise. One of the primary reasons for this is the rapidly rising cost of living in the United States. The cost of just about everything that average families shell out money for on a regular basis – food, rent, health insurance, etc. – is rising much faster than wages are. In a previous article I noted that the federal poverty level for a family of five is $28,410, but 51 percent of all American workers are making less than $30,000 a year at this point. We have seen an explosion in the number of people in this country that are considered to be ‘the working poor’ and it gets worse with each passing year.
One of the most frustrating things for me personally is the rising cost of health insurance. Barack Obama promised that his program would result in a decline in health insurance premiums by as much as $2,500 per family, but in reality average family premiums have increased by a total of $4,865 since 2008.
Just recently, I got a letter informing me that my health insurance premiums would be going up by close to 20 percent in 2016. That is on top of an increase of more than 30 percent in 2015. Sadly, the exact same thing is happening to millions of other families all over the nation. The following comes from TruNews…
The Obamacare increases for 2016 have been released. Premiums will increase 3 times faster than officials claim.
Every state is different. Every insurer is different. New Mexico residents, for instance, can expect increases of 8 to 40 percent for the second-lowest cost silver plan. But for people in other states, including Arkansas the cost will increase less than 4 percent. Overall the average increase is 20.3 percent, according to analysis by The Daily Caller News Foundation, instead of the 7.5 percent originally asserted.
And of course it isn’t just health insurance. Every time I go to the grocery store I am stunned by the prices.

This post was published at End Of The American Dream on November 9th, 2015.

Venezuela Default Countdown Begins: After Selling Billions In Gold, Caracas Raids $467 Million In IMF Reserves

In late October, when describing Venezuela’s desperate steps to keep itself afloat for a few more months, we reported that in order to fund $3.5 billion bond payments in early November, Maduro’s government had engaged in something that is the very definition of insanity: selling the country’s sovereign (and pateiently repatriated by his deceased predecessor) gold to repay creditors.
Specifically, in the past several months, Caracas has quietly parted with 19% of its gold holdings: “Central bank financial statements posted this week on its website show monetary gold totaled 91.41 billion bolivars in January and 74.14 billion bolivars in May. At the strongest official exchange rate of 6.3 bolivars per U. S. dollar, which the bank uses for its financial statements, that decline would be equivalent to $2.74 billion.”
But while ridiculous, Venezuela’s decision to liquidate some of its gold is perhaps understandable under the circumstances: Venezulea relies on crude oil for 95% of its export revenue, and with prices refusing to rebound, the only question is when do all those CDS which price in a Venezuela default finally get paid.
What is even more understandable is what Venezuela should have done in the first place before dumping a fifth of its gold, but got to do eventually, namely raiding all of the IMF capital held under its name in a special SDR reserve account.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/09/2015.

EM Exodus: Emerging Economies See Half Trillion In Capital Flight

When Janet Yellen and the rest of the Eccles cabal decided to stay on hold in September, the ‘new’ reaction function was all anyone wanted to talk about.
Of course, the idea that the Fed was to that point ‘data dependent’ (versus market dependent) was something of a joke in the first place, but the specificity the FOMC employed when referring to global financial markets still took some observers off guard. The worry for the Fed revolved primarily around the possibility that a hike could accelerate EM capital outflows at a time when a series of idiosyncratic factors (like a civil war in Turkey, a political crisis in Brazil, and the 1MDB scandal in Malaysia) had already pushed the emerging world to the brink of crisis. Enormous outflows from China as a result of the yuan deval didn’t help.
In short, the theory was that even a ‘symbolic’ 25 bps hike had the potential to trigger an EM exodus that would make the taper tantrum look like a walk in the park as a soaring dollar exacerbated an already tenuous scenario playing out across the space.
Now, as we look back at Q2 and Q3, we learn that all told, well more than a half trillion in capital fled EM over six months.
Here’s JP Morgan who calls the capital flight “unprecedented”:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/09/2015.

Catalonia’s Parliament Votes to Secede From Spain by 2017

Catalonia’s parliament recently approved a resolution that will push the province to secede from the rest of Spain by no later than 2017. The Catalan regional government now has 30 days to begin drafting a new constitution, and start establishing a tax office and social security administration. The resolution passed by a vote of 72 to 63 despite the protests of the central government, who have long asserted that no Spanish province has the legal right to secede.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said the vote would be challenged in court, before adding that ‘Catalonia is not going anywhere, nothing is going to break.’

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on November 9th, 2015.

The Oil Wars Heat Up: Russia, Iraq Steal Saudi Market Share While Oman Blasts OPEC As “Irresponsible”

Last week, in the wake of S&P’s downgrade of Saudi Arabia and an IMF report which suggests that a number of Mid-East producers will be broke in five years if oil prices remain where they are today, we brought you, i) an in-depth look at Riyadh’s financial situation, and ii) a glimpse at where exporters stand in terms of breakeven prices and budget deficits.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/09/2015.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Incompetence and Felony

Gold had a little bounce today. Silver, not so much.
There is intraday commentary on why I think this is happening now as it is. It its titled An Almost Perfect Storm of Incompetence and Felony.
Incompetence is probably much too kind an interpretation.
The decisions that these public servants are making are not so often out of well intentioned ignorance and ideological blindness, as a former Fed Chairman seems to suggest. That is what I call the CEO-defense. Rather they are made as a price of power and privilege, and selfish betrayal of trust.
See who is getting the sinecures in the financial sector, and the enormous fees for speeches after their ‘public service,’ all out of proportion to their real value. And then you may understand why there is no reform, and no sustainable recovery.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 09 NOVEMBER 2015.

NOV 9/THE GIANT MINING COMPANY LONMIN ON THE ROPES/BHPBILLITON SUFFERS A HUGE TAILING DAM BURST WHICH SWALLOWS A BRAZILIAN TOWN WITH 3 DEATHS AND 28 MISSING/BLACK SWAN EVENT IN PORTUGAL AS ALL OP…

Gold: $1087.90 up $.30 (comex closing time)
Silver $14.42 down 27 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1091.80
Silver: $14.56
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
At the gold comex today, we had a very poor delivery day, registering 0 notice for 100 ounces. Silver saw 0 notices for nil oz.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 208.82 tonnes for a loss of 94 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest surprisingly fell by only 175 contracts despite silver being down 30 cents in Friday’s trading. The total silver OI now rests at 166,740 contracts In ounces, the OI is still represented by .834 billion oz or 119% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI surprisingly rose by a 2,745 contracts to 438,385 contracts despite the fact that gold was down $16.80 on Friday. We had 0 notices filed for 100 oz today.
We had a huge withdrawal in gold inventory at the GLD to the tune of 2.68 tonnes / thus the inventory rests tonight at 666.11 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver, no change in silver inventory / Inventory rests at 313.681 million oz.
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 9, 2015.

Fed Claque of Necromancers and Astrologasters Must Now Put Up or Shut Up

The economic picture manufactured by the national consensus trance has never been more out of touch with reality in my lifetime. And so the questions as to what anyone might do can hardly be addressed. How can I protect my savings? Who do I vote for? How do I think about where my country is going? Incoherence reigns, especially in the circles ruled by those who guard the status quo, which includes the failing legacy news media.
The Federal Reserve has morphed from being a faceless background institution of the most limited purpose to a claque of necromancers and astrologasters, led by one grand vizier, in full public view pretending to steer a gigantic economic vessel that has, in fact, lost its rudder and is drifting into a maelstrom.
For more than a year, the fate of the nation has hung on whether the Fed might raise their benchmark interest rate one quarter of a percent. They talk about it incessantly, and therefore the mob of financial market observers has to chatter about it incessantly, and the chatter itself has appeared to obviate the need for any actual action on the matter. The Fed gets to influence markets without ever having to do anything. And mostly it has worked to produce the false narrative of an advanced economy that is working splendidly well to the advantage of the common good.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by James Howard Kunstler ‘ November 9, 2015.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Retracement, For Now

US stocks were rolling over today, in recognition that the asset bubble rally which we had just experienced was over, at least for now.
Right now we are in a very overdue retracement. The depth of the decline will give us some information on the chart about a potential move higher into year end.
Fundamentals rare matter in the short term, and with the reckless monetary policy of the Fed and the fiscal malfeasance in Washington, the fundamentals are a barely heard voice of conscience.
We stand two bubbles in, and on the verge of another, at least according to the IMF, and you know that I have had that forecast for some time now.
There is no reason why we cannot have a fourth or fifth bubble and crisis as well. They are serving a purpose. If you do not know what that is, then you have not been paying attention to the growing chasm in economic and political equality between the elite and the rest in the ‘free world.’

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 09 NOVEMBER 2015.

Keynesian-Constructed ‘Markets’ Will “Drift Ever Further From Reality… Impoverishing All Layers Of Society”

In last week’s article, we explained how the yield curve could cause GDP to contract in The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship. Some of our readers suggested the analysis was wrong on back of an outdated view of modern money creation. The critics claim modern banks are not dependent on central bank reserves to create additional money; citing a Bank of England article from 2014 (which we have been well aware of)
[A] common misconception is that the central bank determines the quantity of loans and deposits in the economy by controlling the quantity of central bank money – the so-called ‘money multiplier’ approach. In that view, central banks implement monetary policy by choosing a quantity of reserves. And, because there is assumed to be a constant ratio of broad money to base money, these reserves are then ‘multiplied up’ to a much greater change in bank loans and deposits. For the theory to hold, the amount of reserves must be a binding constraint on lending, and the central bank must directly determine the amount of reserves. While the money multiplier theory can be a useful way of introducing money and banking in economic textbooks, it is not an accurate description of how money is created in reality. Rather than controlling the quantity of reserves, central banks today typically implement monetary policy by setting the price of reserves – that is, interest rates. In other words, the article suggest commercial banks themselves determine the amount of reserves, not the central bank. We do not dispute that claim; on the contrary we have argued that in today’s world that is a very accurate description of how commercial banks operate. We have said that the market for money is the only market in the whole world which operate on Keynesians principles; where demand create its own supply and not vice versa.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/09/2015.

ECB Considers Pushing Negative Rates Lower; Yellen Might Follow Lead

While Janet Yellen keeps hinting at a ‘possible’ US interest rate hike – something Peter Schiff has argued for months is highly unlikely – it appears the European Central Bank (ECB) will soon take rates deeper into negative territory. Americans should take note of what is happening across the pond, because it may eventually happen here.
According to a Reuters report, a consensus is forming at the ECB to drop the interest rate it charges banks in December:
Some argue that a deposit rate cut should even be larger than the 0.1% reduction currently expected in financial markets, the policymakers said. They are keen to exhaust the conventional and more direct monetary policy tool as they also consider amending the 60-billion-euro asset purchase program, a far more contentious issue that they have yet to agree on.’
The ECB cut its deposit rate to negative 0.2% in September 2014. At that point, it said it couldn’t go any lower. But other central banks in Europe have dropped their rates significantly below the ECB rate. For example, in Sweden, the benchmark interest rate sits at negative 0.35%. The Swiss and Danish central banks have cut all the way to negative 0.75%. One unnamed ECB governing official told Reuters, ‘Let’s go for a big cut.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 9, 2015.

5% Unemployment Signaling A Recession?

This past Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the unemployment data for October which surpassed even the most bullish Wall Street forecasts. The news that the economy added 271,000 jobs for the month (vs expectations of 182,000) sent predictions of a Fed rate hike in December soaring as the unemployment rate fell to 5%.
As Akin Oyedele via Business Insider wrote:
“After months of guessing, Friday’s October jobs report jolted the market’s confidence that the Federal Reserve could – and perhaps would – raise rates next month.
This looked like the kind of data that the “data-dependent” Fed needed to argue that the labor market had shown ‘further improvement.’”
Akin is correct and the market agreed as the probability of a Fed rate hike this year soared above 70%.

This post was published at StreetTalkLive on 09 November 2015.

Limbo Party: ECB rate setters converge on December deposit rate cut (how low will they go?)

Reuters is reporting that ECB rate setters converge on December deposit rate cut.
The only question is … how low will they go?
The ECB Deposit Facility Announcement Rate is already negative.

Both the Federal Reserve and the ECB have near zero policy rates, although the ECB’s is negative.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B. Sanders ‘ November 9, 2015.