Paris Attacks = President Marine Le Pen AND Massive Euro Devaluation

Earlier today, articles started appearing about the rise of France’s right wing, anti-immigration National Front party in recent polls. This wasn’t a surprise given the ascendancy of formerly fringe political movements in most European states. See, for instance, Portugal Is Potentially A Very Big Deal.
Still, that a formerly (and not so long ago) neo-Nazi party is doing as well as it is in the second largest eurozone economy is pretty remarkable:
Marine Le Pen Tops Another French Presidency Poll The Front National party in France are moving one step closer to seriously challenging for the country’s presidency. A new opinion poll reveals that their leader, nationalist firebrand Marine Le Pen, has topped yet another poll ahead of the elections in 2017. The IFOP poll in conjunction with Sud Radio and Lyon Capitale gives Ms. Le Pen a lead under three different scenarios, reflecting the panic setting into the French political establishment which is considering a ‘grand coalition’ of centre-left and centre-right parties to keep the Front National out.

This post was published at DollarCollapse on November 14, 2015.

JPMorgan’s “Gandalf” Quant Nailed It Again

Over the past 3 months, the name Marko Kolanovic, head of JPM’s Quant Team, has become one of the most loved, or feared (depending on which way he is leaning) and respected on all of Wall Street for one simple reason: think Dennis Gartman, only correct every time. Well, the man Bloomberg calls “Gandalf” just did it again – “nailing” the top in stocks last week.
There are three possible explanations for Kolanovic’s mojo:
1. He’s Gandalf. This guy is truly a wizard who deciphers the quant tea leaves like few others out there.
2. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy. There are enough traders and investors out there who are so completely flummoxed by this market that they’re inclined to believe Marko’s take and trade accordingly.
3. Random Luck. If you flip a quarter four times and it lands on heads four times, it doesn’t mean you’ve found a magic quarter.
The reason, however, as we have profiled before, is simple: he has somehow succeeded in calling every single market inflection point since the August 24 flash crash, and we have documented them all:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/13/2015.

Silver Wheaton Pays Glencore $900 Million For Silver At 20% Of Spot Price

Looks like Silver Wheaton struck it rich with its newest silver streaming agreement with Glencore. According to the deal, Silver Wheaton paid Glencore $900 million for future silver production from its share of its Antamina copper mine in Peru. Silver Wheaton receives silver from this Glencore deal at 20% of the silver spot price.
Which means, Silver Wheaton currently pays about $2.85 per silver ounce at the current market price of $14.26. That’s not a bad deal, especially when your cost is only 20%. I would imagine any of the primary silver mining companies would die to produce silver at a 20% cost.
Peru’s copper Antamina mine (picture), is owned by Glencore (33.75%), BHP Billiton (33.75%), Teck Resources (22.5%) and Mitsubishi Corporation (10%). It produced a third of Peru’s copper production in 2013.
According to the Bloomberg article, Glencore Raises $900 Million By Selling Future Output:
Glencore Plc sold a share of its future silver output in a deal that includes a $900 million upfront payment, as the trading and mining company works to cut its $30 billion debt pile by about a third amid tumbling commodity prices.
The deal includes Silver Wheaton Corp. paying 20 percent of the spot price per delivered ounce, the Vancouver-based company said in a statement Tuesday. Silver Wheaton will receive an amount equal to 34 percent of silver production at the Antamina mine in Peru until the delivery of 140 million ounces and the equivalent of 23 percent of silver production thereafter, Baar, Switzerland-based Glencore said in a statement.
This newest silver streaming deal with Glencore provides Silver Wheaton with the cheapest price per ounce (based on the current market price) compared to all its other agreements. If we look at Silver Wheaton’s Silver & Gold Streaming Agreements below, we can see the different prices and time spans for these different agreements:

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on November 13, 2015.

Will 92% Of Economists Be Wrong Again?

Three months ago, when looking at the predictive track record of US economists, we said that “if PhD economists were serious about getting things right, they would have a tough job. That goes double for PhD economists charged with making policy decisions based on their conclusions.”
We furher explained that’s because economics (like sociology and political science and astrology) isn’t a real science. It’s a pseudo-science. And as is the case with other pseudo-sciences, it’s flat out impossible to discover laws and immutable truths, no matter what anyone told you in your undergrad economics course.
Back then we were specifically looking at economist’s predictions about the Fed’s first rate hike, which based on a WSJ survey of “respected” economists, nearly 95% said the Fed would hike by September.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/13/2015.

Business Inventories Rise More Than Expected; Inventory to Sales Ratio Highest in Recovery; Retailers Overestimating Demand?

Business expectations are high and rising as measured by a new high in the inventory-to-sales ratio.
The Econoday Consensus Expectation was for no growth in inventories, but the actual result was 0.3 percent.
That rise sent the inventory-to-sales ratio to the highest point in the recovery.
Business inventories rose a higher-than-expected 0.3 percent in September on a back-up of inventories in the retail sector. The build is a plus for third-quarter GDP revisions but may not be a plus for future production and employment.
Retail inventories surged 0.8 percent in September while sales came in flat, in turn raising the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.48 from 1.47 for the highest of the recovery. Ratios across most retail subcomponents moved incrementally higher.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on November 13, 2015.

These Are America’s Fattest States

A couple of weeks ago, in what we said could be the ‘worst news’ ever, the World Health Organisation added steak to (long) list of things that can give you cancer. As we pointed out at the time, America’s weight problem has become so bad, that nearly three quarters of men are either overweight or obese. But as we also noted, Americans are used to their sedentary lifestyle and have become accustomed to gorging themselves at meal time and if persisting in such creature comforts means shaving a few years off their lifespans well, for most people that’s probably a reasonable trade off so the whole heart disease/heart attack threat isn’t likely to be exceptionally effect. Hence the WHO decided it was time to break out the big gun: the ‘C’ word.
Now, WalletHub is out with a new analysis that looks to ‘pinpoint where the weight problem is most prevalent’ in America by comparing states on 12 ‘key’ metrics. New statistics, the analysis notes, show that in 2014, some 83 million Americans were completely inactive, the highest number in seven years. With the holidays on the horizon, WalletHub figured it would do America a favor and identify the ‘problem’ states so that residents might exercise a little discretion going back for seconds, or thirds.
What was the methodology?
In order to identify the states with the biggest weight problems, WalletHub’s analysts compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across two key dimensions, including ‘Obesity & Overweight Prevalence’ and ‘Unhealthy Habits & Consequences.’
Next, we compiled 12 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/13/2015.

ECB Had 3 Accused Rate Manipulators In Crisis Focus Group

Earlier this month in ‘Secret ‘Diaries’ Show ECB Board Members Met With Banks, Hedge Funds ‘Days’ Before Policy Meetings,’ we brought you just the latest example of nefarious intermingling between central planners and a select group of private sector operators who essentially bet on policy.
As it turns out, top ECB officials met personally with ‘banks and asset managers’ just ‘days’ and sometimes ‘hours’ before policy meetings. This rather disconcerting revelation came courtesy of ECB officials’ ‘diaries’ and although you would have to be completely devoid of a healthy sense of skepticism and/or entirely naive to believe that no nonpublic information was passed at those meetings, that’s what Mario Draghi wants you to believe. Here’s an ECB spokesperson: ‘The same underlying principles – guarding against signalling future monetary policy – are of course applied to bilateral meetings. In any case, no market-sensitive information is disclosed by the ECB in any non-public forum.’
Right. ‘the same underlying principles’ that led Benoit Coeure to tip off a non-public audience of hedge funds in London about PSPP frontloading.
And then of course there was the story of Martin Mallett, the BOE’s chief currency trader who was let go last year after 30 years with the bank after it became apparent that he might have known traders were rigging FX markets for years before the scandal became public but nevertheless failed to escalate the issue.
Well now, we find out that the ECB – the same ECB where policymakers like to meet with banks and asset managers before major policy meetings, actually had three of the traders accused of gaming Euribor by Britain’s Serious Fraud Office on Friday in a group that helped the the bank craft its response to the financial crisis! From Reuters:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/13/2015.

It’s official: Barack Obama wants to ‘help’ you manage your retirement savings

November 13, 2015
In 1875, right around the time the United States overtook the UK as the largest economy in the world, the American Express Company established the very first private pension plan in the US.
American Express had a simple goal: attract the best and brightest employees by giving them retirement security.
At the time, this was a revolutionary idea. The concept of ‘retirement’ was practically martian.
Back then, most people worked until they were no longer medically fit to do so.
To voluntarily stop working and live out your golden years on perpetual vacation was a complete fantasy.
But a century after American Express, thanks in large part to rising prosperity in the 20th century, retirement had become the norm.
Private companies’ pension plans covered over 40% of the American workforce and millions of Americans were receiving Social Security by the 1970s.
Then in 1974 the government passed the Employee Retirement Income Security Act, establishing Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) to help people save for retirement in a tax advantageous way.
Fast-forwarding to 2015, we can see that none of this turned out quite like they’d expected. The state of retirement in America is now pretty abysmal.
First and foremost, Social Security is desperately, woefully unfunded.

This post was published at Sovereign Man on Simon Black /.


Gold: $1080.90 down 10 cents (comex closing time)
Silver $14.20 down 2 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1083.70
Silver: $14.26
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
At the gold comex today, we had a very poor delivery day, registering 0 notice for nil ounces. Silver saw 0 notices for nil oz.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 209.70 tonnes for a loss of 93 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest surprisingly fell by a tiny 660 contracts despite silver being down by 4 cents in yesterday’s trading. The total silver OI now rests at 165,328 contracts In ounces, the OI is still represented by .826 billion oz or 118% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI fell by a huge 3940 contracts to 424,047 contracts as gold was down $3.90 yesterday. It seems the modus operandi of the bandits is to liquefy gold/silver OI as be approach first day notice on Monday, November 30. They succeeded in gold but not silver. We had 0 notices filed for nil today.
We had no change in gold inventory at the GLD / thus the inventory rests tonight at 661.94 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver, we had no change in silver inventory to the tune of / Inventory rests at 315.111 million oz.
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 13, 2015.

Weekend Reading: Being Too Busy To Read

The past week has been fairly quiet as all eyes have turned to focus on the Fed and the expected rate hike at the December meeting. Will they, won’t they, should they or shouldn’t they? Those are the questions being hotly contested by the mainstream media on a daily basis.
Of course, the reality is the Federal Reserve faces the huge obstacle of weak global growth and deflationary pressures which could very well keep them on hold well into 2016. The potential loss of credibility in the Fed by the markets could be the bigger issue to be concerned with.
For now, we wait. The markets rapid surge in October has run into resistance as earnings season rapidly comes to an end. This is at a time when much of the economic data flow shows weakness and investors remain skittish following the summer bruising.
While the markets have entered into the “seasonally strong” time of year, there is a marked difference between the current market environment and that of either the 2010 or 2011 summer corrections. In fact, the current market action as discussed earlier this week, is more reminiscent of a market topping process rather than a simple correction within an ongoing bull market. To wit:
There is little evidence currently that the rally over the last couple of months has done much to reverse the more “bearish” market signals that currently exist. Furthermore, as noted by Jochen Schmidt, the current market action may be more indicative of market topping process.”

This post was published at StreetTalkLive on 11 November 2015.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Life Imitates High School, Or Monopoly

Very little of consequence occurred at The Bucket Shop today.
Gold had the usual rise and then smack down into the London PM fix and the New York open, just to give the sleeping pit crawlers a wake up call, and then bounced along 1180 support for the rest of the day. Silver was pretty much a copy cat, or vice versa.
There were no deliveries made for the precious metals at the Comex yesterday. As Dr. Zoidberg says, ‘what a surprise!’
And as you can see on the domestic warehouse reports below, little happened except for the slow rim-leak of bullion outbound.
Hong Kong was quite a different matter yesterday. So much so that it merited some intraday commentary About 38% of All the Comex Gold in Hong Kong Left the Warehouses Yesterday.
In the course of finding yet another excuse not to go out and take care of the leaves again, I took some time to write an open letter to Mr. Paul Krugman titled, An Open Letter to Paul Krugman on the ‘Republican Lust For Gold.’
Perhaps I should have said, ‘so-called lust for gold.’
I mean, besides Rand Paul and his father, there may be an abundance of lust for certain things among the GOP and the Wall St Democrats for that matter, but not much of it is for the betterment of the common people and their experiences with money and markets.
In fact, one might be excused if they think that in practice there is little difference between the ‘establishment Republicans’ and the ‘Wall Street Democrats’ except for names of the billionaires who sign their paychecks.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 13 NOVEMBER 2015.

The Recessions Are Underway

“People’s confidence that the consumer can somehow offset this industrial recession that we’ve had is really being shaken to the core with the disappointing numbers from some of these major retailers”
– James Abate, CIO of Centre Funds.
Recessions Are Underway
China drove the recent economic boom, just as it is behind the recent malaise. A turnaround in Chinese demand would certainly change things but the current data does not look promising.
For China’s trade partners, it means recession today. Only Germany and the US look positioned to weather the storm. Expect the next macroeconomic leg down to start in January. Between now and then, data will continue to weaken incrementally. Expect urgent Central Bank intervention in Taiwan, Korea, Brazil, and Australia.
It’s Not a US Recession… Yet

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/13/2015.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – This Is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things

Wow. I was expecting a decline down to these very key support levels, which as you may notice are just about where you would like to see them step in a ‘cup and handle’ or W bottom.
But the wiseguys certainly did not waste any time getting here.
Tell me, what happened this week that changed the entire complexion of the equity market, which rose in an almost unstoppable manner from a hard bottom back to challenge the all time highs in a matter of a few weeks?
What new wisdom did the trading desks and the algos discern that turned sentiment on a dime from mindless greed to panic and fear?
Or was this the usual ‘wash and rinse’ that one might expect in a market dominated by relatively unregulated behemoths who feel free to shove prices around like a pinball machine, all the better than to consume the public with, my dears?
Well, take heart young bulls. IF the market can stop and make a stand within a little leeway to the downside, then it has a good chance of doing this all over again and providing the one percent with yet another ‘Santa Claus rally’ and a ‘Merry Christmas’ to them.
I took all my short positions and VIX long off. I don’t remember if I mentioned that. Now we will see what this latest attempt by the financial community to baffle the world is all about.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 13 NOVEMBER 2015.

It’s Official This Holiday Season Will Be The Worst Since The Great Depression – Episode 817a

The following video was published by X22Report on Nov 13, 2015
The Greek economy has contracted. Europe has contracted, the global economy is crashing. The job numbers are not making sense, now there are more job openings and hires. Retail sales have plummeted, Macy’s, Nordstroms, Banna Republic and more are reporting declining sales. The last time retail sales were this weak was during the recession of 2008. Obama is now trying to push MyRA where the government will take your cash for Treasury Bonds. Russia stocking up on gold to protect itself from the collapse of the dollar.

An Open Letter To Paul Krugman On the ‘Republican Lust for Gold’

“People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage.”
John Kenneth Galbraith, Age of Uncertainty
This is a response to Mr. Krugman’s recent column as it was featured at Economist’s View titled, Republican Lust for Gold
I am not in favor of a return to a gold standard.
I am a reasonably well-educated, politically progressive professional, a likely supporter of Bernie Sanders as an economic reformer and an opponent of endless war, and certainly not the ‘Wall Street Democrats.’ I believe that the current ‘debate’ over the place of gold in the economy is breaking along ideological lines to the point of a religious fervor and intellectual blindness, on both sides.
I think of gold as an alternative store of wealth, which without any sanctions from the state pro or con can serve a very useful purpose. It gives people a ‘choice.’ It can act as a barometer of sentiment. And it serves a purpose, especially in times of pervasive fraud in the financial asset markets, as an asset without mispriced or even hidden counterparty risk if held directly.
And if you think that the problem of pervasive fraud has been fixed you are sorely mistaken.
If a system cannot stand the criticism offered by something which it cannot and probably ought not to control, then perhaps the fault is in the system, and not in the critics.
And while we are on the topic, what by any stretch of the imagination do you subscribe the issue of ‘gold’ to the Republican establishment? Who shut the gold window in 1971? One of the few things that Chairman Greenspan said is that statists from both sides of the aisle despise and fear gold because it constrains them in their quest for discretionary power. And he was right.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 13 NOVEMBER 2015.

And Now, The Market Splat

This is no longer “just” a profit recession, you see.
Nor is it “just” a commodity recession.
Nor is it “just” a transportation recession, although that one ought to get your attention, and fast.
No, it’s also in industrial machinery and, well, pretty-much everything else, with few exceptions. Even retail sales are getting hammered.
How do you square where the market is with this economic fact and outlook?
You don’t.
One of the two is wrong, and that one will move (and probably quite rapidly) to match the other.
PS: I’ve seen this movie before, and so have you. Topping pattern, swoon, attempt to break out above old highs fails on false, pumped media hype and hope, and then……..

This post was published at Market-Ticker on Nov 13, 2015.

Global Gold Demand Surges in Third Quarter

Gold demand showed a healthy increase in the third quarter according to areport released by the World Gold Council.
Total gold demand in Q3 stood at 1, 121 tons, an increase of 8% compared to the third quarter of 2014.
Global investment demand helped drive the overall increase. It surged 27% to 230 tons, primarily on the strength of gold bar and gold coin purchases. In the US, bar and coin demand hit the highest total in five years, up a whopping 207% to 33 tons. Gold Eagle coin sales are at the highest level since the financial crisis.
Europe and Asia also saw a healthy increase in investment demand. It grew by 35% in Europe and 70% in China. India saw its first investment sector demand increase since the third quarter of 2014, up 6% to 57 tons.
A report in the Telegraph described China’s investment in gold as a ‘buying spree’ as ‘investors sought to shelter themselves from further market volatility.’
Central bank gold purchases also boosted overall demand, according to the report:

This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 13, 2015.