Vast China Gold Reserves Just Added 470 Tons with Huge Undersea Find

This month, already vast China gold reserves grew even larger…
The Shandong Provincial No. 3 Institute of Geological and Mineral Survey announced on Nov. 9 it discovered a 470.4-ton gold deposit in the East China Sea. That’s the largest and first-ever undersea gold mine found in the country. At the current price of gold, that amount is worth roughly $16.4 billion.
China has noticeably increased efforts to mine and stockpile gold this year.
The Red Dragon’s lust for the yellow metal will come as no surprise to regular Money Morning readers. Resource Specialist Peter Krauth has frequently noted China’s high gold demand – and what the country intends to do with its growing store of wealth…
This month, already vast China gold reserves grew even larger…
The Shandong Provincial No. 3 Institute of Geological and Mineral Survey announced on Nov. 9 it discovered a 470.4-ton gold deposit in the East China Sea. That’s the largest and first-ever undersea gold mine found in the country.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Tara Clarke ‘ November 25, 2015.

Bank Of America Forecasts No Recession Until 2027 (If Ever), Sees S&P At 3,500 In 10 Years

A year and a half ago, in May of 2014, when Bank of America’s chief economist Ethan Harris decided to try his hand at long term (really long-term) forecasts, he made several predictions: that 2015 GDP would be 3.3%, that the long-term potential growth rate of the economy is 2.2%, and that the long-term unemployment rate is 6%.
One year later, we yet again see just why economists tend to be a source of amusement everywhere they go, because moments ago the same Mr. Harris just admitted that 2015 GDP would actually be 2.5% (at best, and realistically 2.1% if Q4 GDP ends up being 1.8% as the Atlanta Fed forecasts), that the long-term growth rate is now lower at 2.0%, even as the long-term unemployment rate has mysteriously declined to 5%, or in other words, a lower potential growth rate results in lower unemployment.
Go figure.
Here is what Harris predicted for the “long-term” in early 2014:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/25/2015.

December’s Strong Stock Market Performance History Might Not Hold Up in 2015

It’s only about five weeks until 2016. Stock market performance history shows these are typically good days for the Dow and S&P 500 – but this year could be different…
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P 500 has averaged a 2% gain from Thanksgiving through the end of the year. The broad-based benchmark has been higher roughly 70% of the time, rising in 46 of those 65 periods.
However, if the S&P 500 ends today in the red year to date, its performance for the rest of the year has historically deteriorated. It averages a 1.8% dip through the remainder of the year, according the Almanac. That has occurred 22 times over the last 65 years. The index has been higher 64% of the time.
Heading into this Thanksgiving holiday, as of mid-day Wednesday, the index is up 1.55% for the year. The Dow is up 0.12%.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Diane Alter ‘ November 25, 2015.

Even The Rally In Large Caps Is Narrowing

The bull market in U. S. equities has narrowed over the past 6 months as strength has become concentrated in large cap stocks. Recently, strength has narrowed even among those large caps.
One common theme in these pages (and others) over the past 6 months has been the narrowing of participation in the equity bull market. That is, the rally has persisted among the major averages, but fewer and fewer stocks are rallying alongside. This dynamic is possible, of course, due to the uneven weighting of most stock indexes. The largest stocks, either by market cap or by price, have the greatest impact on the performance of the indexes. And those big-cap stocks have shown little propensity thus far to slow down. However, just recently, we are seeing the narrowing of the rally even among these large cap stocks.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/25/2015.

Year-End Squeeze Begins As Predicted – “Most Shorted” Stocks Up 10x The Market This Week

The S&P 500 is up 0.44% in the last three days, a solid return for the buy-and-hold’ers thinking about long-term appreciation. However, under the covers of that move is, just as we predicted, a massive and accelerating short-squeeze is underway, dragging the “Most Shorted” stocks up 4.65% since Friday’s open as investors bet increasingly on central-bank-inspired expectations that hedge fund blow ups will force domino-like, sequential short squeezes.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/25/2015.

Unexpected Surge In Auction Demand For 7 Year Treasury

The 2 Year auction was strong, the 5 Year auction yesterday was mixed, but one word can best describe demand for today’s issuance for “curve belly” 7 Year paper: blistering.
Moments ago, the 7 Year When Issued was trading at 2.028, expecting some serious concessions into the auction. Not only did these not materialize but the auction came in far better than expected, pricing in at 2.013%, a whopping 1.5 bps through the When Issued. The Bid to Cover was a strong 2.511, well above the 2.46 TTM average, with 56% of the auction going to indirects – above the 12 month average of 54.6%, 13.5% to Directs, which was also above average, leaving 30.5% for the Dealers.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/25/2015.

The US Government Economic Recovery Lies Are Now Falling Apart – Episode 827a

The following video was published by X22Report on Nov 25, 2015
Consumer Confidence plunges. Continuous jobless claims start to rise during the holiday season. Personal spending misses while people save their money for the collapse. Durable good orders signal a deep depression. New home sales miss expectations as prices continue to fall. Mortgage applications decline once again. US manufacturing declines.

Sweden Warns Of Dire “Consequences” From Massive Housing Bubble, Heavily Indebted Households

Late last month, Sweden tripled down on QE, as the Riksbank announced it would expand its asset purchases by SEK65 billion. Or, visually:

The recent history of Swedish monetary policy is viewed by some as a cautionary tale about what can happen when a central bank attempts to normalize policy too ‘early.’ As a reminder, the Riskbank began raising rates in 2010. Reminiscing about the bank’s decision four years later, Paul Krugman blew a gasketon the way to accusing Sweden of being a nefarious lot of job hating heretics hell bent on perpetuating global inequality by enriching creditors at the expense of impoverished debtors.
Of course Krugman needn’t have been so hard on the Riksbank. After all, they reversed course a little over a year later and since then, it’s been nothing but easing as the repo rate fell 35 bps into negative territory.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/25/2015.

BAN ON TUNA LABELED DOLPHIN-SAFE SHOWS HOW TPP WILL CRUSH CONSUMER RIGHTS

In the last 25 years, dolphin-safe labeling of tuna managed to reduce unnecessary annual deaths of the mammals from over 100,000 to only 3,000 – an astounding 97% reduction – but the World Trade Organization just effectively nullified this critical program.
In order to placate Mexico as a member nation of the upcoming (and seemingly inevitable) Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the WTOdeemed dolphin-safe labeling a ‘technical barrier to trade’ – even though that environmentally-conscious label is voluntary and applies equally to domestic and foreign companies. At issue arefishing methods that exploit the as-yet-unexplained symbiotic relationship between tunas and dolphins. As the Sierra Clubexplained:
‘Tunas and dolphins are commonly found together in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Taking advantage of this, many fishing companies purposefully ensnare dolphins in their nets so as to trap tuna, killing and injuring dolphins in the process. In 1990, the U. S. enacted a ban on imports of tuna caught with dolphin-unsafe practices and regulated ‘dolphin-safe’ tuna labeling.’

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on NOVEMBER 25, 2015.

“We Reduced Our Short In The Euro” – Did Goldman Just Hint Draghi May Do Nothing Next Week

Over the past year, there has been no stauncher supporter of the short-EUR trade than Goldman: so staunch in fact that Goldman’s top trade for 2015 was basically a short EUR trade (which however ended up being a total loss for anyone who put it on because the EUR did not drop as fast as Goldman had expected as we noted last week).
Which is why we were surprised that with the Euro plunging again today in the aftermath of the latest ECB trial balloon via Reuters, and sliding to a new 7 month low below 1.05, Goldman came out with a sales piece in which it is said that the firm has “reduced our short in the euro versus US dollar as central bank actions are increasingly priced in to both markets.” In other words, unlike a year ago, this time the EUR had fallen faster than Goldman expected.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/25/2015.

Welcome To The Currency War, Part 20: Corporate Profits Head South, Stock Prices To Follow?

A too-strong currency is, in theory, supposed to make it harder to sell things to cheap-currency countries, thus crimping corporate profits and by implication pretty much everything else.
The US dollar has been rising against the rest of the world for over a year, so let’s see how we’re doing. From today’s Wall Street Journal:
Falling Corporate Profits Blur U. S. Growth Outlook Profits at U. S. companies during the third quarter posted their largest annual decline since the recession, underscoring the competitive pressure from a strong dollar and weak global demand that could limit businesses’ ability to support stronger economic growth in the coming months. A comprehensive measure of companies’ profits across the U. S. – earnings adjusted for inventory and depreciation – dropped to $2.1 trillion in the third quarter, down 1.1% from the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Compared with a year earlier, profits fell 4.7%, the biggest annual decline since the second quarter of 2009. That marked only the second time profits have fallen on a year-over-year basis since the recession ended in mid-2009.

This post was published at DollarCollapse on November 25, 2015.

On the Verge of Consumer Exhaustion

Fourth Quarter GDPNow Forecast Sinks to 1.8%
Following today’s personal income report in which consumer spending rose only 0.1% month-over-month, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for fourth quarter declined 0.5%.

“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.8 percent on November 25, down from 2.3 percent on November 18. The forecast for the fourth-quarter rate of real consumer spending declined from 3.1 percent to 2.2 percent after this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.”
The latest Blue-Chip forecast for early November was 2.7%, a highly unlikely number at this stage unless season spending picks up big time.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on November 25, 2015.

“There Are No More Dollars In The Central Bank”: Argentina’s New President Confronts Liquidity Crisis

On Monday, Mauricio Macri, the son of Italian-born construction tycoon Francesco Macri, beat out Cristina Kirchner’s handpicked successor Daniel Scioli for Argentina’s presidency in what amounted to a referendum on 12 years of Peronist rule.
A legacy of defaults combined with exceptionally high inflation and slow growth finally tipped the scales on the Leftists and now, Macri will try to clean up the mess.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/25/2015.

Gold and Silver Market Morning: Nov-25-2015

Gold Today -New York closed at $1,075.40 up from $1,068.70. In Asia prices were lifted to $1,180 as the dollar slipped. The LBMA price setting fixed it at $1,072.20 down from $1,073.00. The dollar Index is just about to break through the 100 level and stands now at 99.96 this morning up from 99.42 yesterday morning. The dollar is at $1.0593 down from $1.0621 against the euro. In the euro the fixing was 1,012.23 up from yesterday’s 1,007.13. Ahead of New York’s opening gold was trading in the dollar at $1,074.55 and in the euro at 1,014.40.
Silver Today – The silver price closed at $14.17 up 6 cents on yesterday. At New York’s opening, silver was trading at $14.12.
Gold (very short-term) The gold price will again look for direction today, in New York.
Silver (very short-term) The silver price will again look direction today, in New York.
Price Drivers Once again the dollar exchange rate is the main issue in all markets. It is now attacking the 100 level at 99.95.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 November 2015.

How Illiquid Are Bond ETFs, Really? (Spoiler Alert: Very!)

“Transcendent liquidity” is a somewhat silly-sounding phrase coined by the equally silly Matt Hougan, CEO of ETF.com, to discuss the odd situation in fixed-income ETFs – specifically, fixed-income ETFs tracking narrow corners of the market like high-yield bonds.
But it’s increasingly the focus of regulators and skeptical investors like Carl Icahn. Simply put: Flagship funds like the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF trade like water, while their underlying holdings don’t. Is this a real problem, or a unicorn?
Defining Liquidity
The problem with even analyzing this question starts with definitions. When most people talk about ETF liquidity, they’re actually conflating two different things: tradability and fairness.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/25/2015.

The Junk Bond Market Is Collapsing

It’s not just distressed debt or the energy sector. I was chatting with a friend/colleague in NYC who is connected with the high yield market. To begin with, the economic devastation to Texas from the collapsing price of oil is just beginning. Word to him from a big Texas bank is that the massive asset write-downs – i.e. energy and real estate loans – are just starting. Up until now the banks and financial firms have been able to hold off marking to market in hopes of a recovery in the price of oil. But distressed offerings in oil, gas and real estate assets are starting to hit the market and it’s going to force the issue. This is going to get ugly.
This is economic fall-out that will spread to the entire country.
Next we turned to the high yield market and he remarked that the junk market is collapsing. And it’s not just oil bonds – it’s gas, technology, healthcare, industrial, retail – everything. The few recent deals that got done soaked up all the cash available and now big outflows are starting again. There’s no liquidity and bids that show up within a reasonable context of the quoted bid/ask market get tattoo’d. It’s impossible to move any kind of stuff – i.e. big investors, mutual funds, pension funds are stuck.

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on November 25, 2015.

The Only Way to Make Real Money in the Markets

Knave or Fool?
WATERFORD, Ireland – Markets were calm on Monday. Investors wanted to panic, as usual, but didn’t know what direction to take.
We’re not sure either. On the one hand, the world economy is slowing down. On the other, Mario Draghi has announced again that he – not willing buyers and sellers – will determine consumer prices.
And he wants to see them go higher. No kidding. Bloomberg:
‘European Central Bank President Mario Draghi set the scene for further stimulus in two weeks’ time, saying the institution will do what’s necessary to reach its inflation goal rapidly. The euro fell.
‘If we decide that the current trajectory of our policy is not sufficient to achieve that objective, we will do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible,’ Draghi said in a speech in Frankfurt on Friday.’

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 25, 2015.