He Lived Through Hyperinflation, Devaluation And Confiscation: This Is His Advice

Nearly four months ago, when bitcoin was still languishing in the low $200s, we explained why in the post-Yuan devaluation regime, where all Chinese capital outflows are now scrutizined through a microscope, bitcoin will inevitably see substantial appreciation as the local population scrambles to transfer funds out of China and into more traditional end markets, such as the US, Canada and western Europe, using such still largely unregulated mediums as bitcoin and other digital currencies.
Why not gold?
This is what we said in the beginning of September: “China’s propensity for gold is well-known. We would not be surprised to see a surge of gold imports into China, only instead of going to the traditional Commodity Financing Deals we have written extensively about before, where gold is merely a commodity used to fund domestic carry trades, it ends up in domestic households. However, while gold has historically been the best store of value in history and has outlasted every currency known to man, it is problematic when it comes to transferring funds in and out of a nation – it tends to show up quite distinctly on X-rays.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/27/2015.

Diversification Is For Dummies – The Nifty Nine Never Mattered More

From the 4-horsemen of the dotcom exuberance (and apocalypse), to today’s so-called FANG and NOSH stocks, and now ‘Nifty Nine’, investors could be forgiven for ignoring the benefits of stock market diversification that every commission-taking, fee-gathering asset-collector promotes and going all-in on a few ‘easy to select’ stocks to make the quick buck that everyone believes is their right as an American taxpayer. While the S&P languishes unchanged in 2015, these small groups of overwhelmingly propagandized stocks are up on average over 60%, but with a collective P/E of 45, they are not cheap (and perhaps should remember that when buying this momo, we are all Thanksgiving turkeys).

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/27/2015.

One Chart Shows Where Oil Prices Could Be Headed

There’s a rare extreme in the oil sector right now. The oil-to-U. S. dollar ratio, which reflects the relationship between the price of oil and the dollar, is near its lowest point in almost seven years.
When this ratio hit a low in 2009, the price of oil went on to soar 214% to its peak in June 2014. But if you think this extreme means oil prices could soon rally, you’re making a mistake…
As regular readers know, the dollar has broken out over the past year. It’s now stronger than it has been since 2003 versus other major currencies. The U. S. Dollar Index is up 40% since it bottomed in 2008. Historically, when the dollar rises, commodities like oil tend to fall. This is what we’ve seen this time around. The price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is down more than 60% since June 2014 – to around $40 per barrel.
As a result, the ratio between the price of oil and the dollar has fallen. It’s down around 68% since oil peaked.

This post was published at Wolf Street on November 27, 2015.

How The Scots Welcome ‘Visitors’

William Wallace would be proud…
Larkhall is a town in South Lanarkshire, Scotland and is around 14 miles southeast of Glasgow. Traditionally a mining, weaving and textile area, most of Larkhall’s traditional industries have now shut, including the Lanarkshire iron and steel works… and now they have a message for the new invaders…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/27/2015.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Policy Error De Luxe

Years ago when I was a boy programmer we used to have a joke about the big computer systems.
We would say that the systems programmers would get the operating system working just right. The only problem was when users came on the system on then everything went to hell in a handbasket.
So too it is with many insular specialists like the Fed. They are virtually owned by the Banks, and have their roots in a very incestuous profession in which the group think is powerfully motivated towards the care and cultivation of the financiers and their money flows and the system that supports them.
Well, I think we can all see what giving more and more power to the Fed as regulators, and unleashing the ability of Big Money to buy politicians by the gross lot has done for us.
And this is why we have so many hard-to-understand things going on with Big Finance, and Big Pharma, and all the other things that are sending the US into a Third World recovery.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 27 NOVEMBER 2015.

Ralph Nader Is Right: The Fed’s Stimulus Hurts Ordinary People

Defenders of the Fed have long been at a loss to explain how anyone could ever oppose the Fed and its “stimulus” programs. After all, in their minds it is unassailable gospel that the Fed makes everybody better off when it creates new money, forces down interest rates, or buys up government debt. Only Neanderthals oppose such things.
Don’t Like the Fed? You Must Hate the Poor
In fact, a small cottage industry has sprung up around trying to explain why anyone would oppose the fed. Here’s one example: back in April, Matt O’Brien in the Washington Post theorized that the reason Republicans now oppose the Fed’s stimulus is because they’ve embraced the ideology of Guilded Age Robber Barrons. O’Brien decided that only rich people like income from interest, so the only reason they would oppose the Fed, is because they want higher interest rates and they oppose inflation. Why do they oppose inflation? According to O’Brien, “The rich have gotten so much richer the past 30 years that they have more to lose from inflation…Second, people are risk averse too. If they can make money without really having to risk it, well, that’s what they want to do. The Fed’s low interest rate policy has made that harder, though, which is why so many conservatives have attacked the Fed for things worse for well-off people … who were counting on having more interest income.”
O’Brien is totally incoherent on the first point. The rich don’t suddenly become anti-inflation because they got richer. A billionaire doesn’t have more to lose from inflation than does a millionaire. In fact, the opposite is true. The billionaires have access to overseas accounts, hedge funds, currency traders, and a myriad of strategies that can act as inflation hedges.
Its the non-rich who have to worry about inflation and a lack of access to interest income.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on NOVEMBER 25, 2015.

Mark Dice Confronts America’s Zombie Shoppers

Unlike on previous occasions when Mark Dice either mocks the stupidity of Americans for having zero clue about the true worth of precious metals, or mocks the stupidity of Americans for having absolutely nounderstanding of politics (yet supporting Hillary Clinton among others), in his latest clip, the notorious lampooner takes a stroll at 4:30 pm on Thanksgiving night in front of the Best Buy in San Diego where he finds a massive line.


This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/27/2015.

From Good Delivery bars to Kilobars – The Swiss Refineries, the GFMS data, and the LBMA

In early September 2015, I wrote an article titled ‘Moving the goalposts…. The LBMA’s shifting stance on gold refinery production statistics’, in which I explained how the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) had, on Wednesday 5 August, substantially lowered its 2013 gold and silver refinery production statistics literally a few days after I hadcommented on the sizeable figure of 6601 tonnes of 2013 refined gold production that the LBMA had previously published in May 2015.
Specifically:
On 5 August, the LBMA substantially altered and republished Good Delivery List gold and silver refinery production statistics in two of its published files: LBMA Brochure Final 20120501.pdf and LBMA Overview Brochure.pdf For gold, the alterations were most pronounced in the 2013 refined production figure which was reduced from 6601 tonnes to 4600 tonnes, i.e. a 2001 tonne reduction Other years’ figures for refined gold refinery output (2010-2012) were also reduced, with the 2008-2009 figures being increased As part of the update, the LBMA linked its amended figures solely to GFMS estimates of gold mining andscrap output, adding the words ‘estimated to be’ in front of the 4,600 tonnes figure, and the words ‘owing to recycling of scrap material’, thereby framing the revised figure solely in terms of scrap gold in excess of 2013 gold mining supply. This use of GFMS data is bizarre because all refiners on the LBMA’s Good Delivery List provide exact refinery production statistics to the LBMA Executive as part of the LBMA Pro-Active Monitoring programme, so there are no need to reference estimates from external data providers In the updated versions of the brochures, the LBMA made no reference to why the gold figures had been reduced, nor what the original figures referred to, particularly for the huge difference of 2,000 tonnes of gold refinery output in 2013 between its two sets of figures By 12 August, the LBMA had again updated its 2013 gold refinery output figure to 4579 tonnes In my Part 1 article, I had concluded that:

This post was published at Bullion Star on 23 Nov 2015.

China’s Plunge Protection Team Now Owns 6% Of The Entire Chinese Stock Market

Two weeks ago, in ‘The Cost Of China’s ‘Manipulated Market Stability’ May Be Too High, BofAML Warns,’ we revisited Beijing’s plunge protection national team, which during Q3 bought an astounding CNY1.5 trillion in stocks.
For those who might have forgotten exactly how this worked, the PBoC effectively transformed CSF into a giant, state-run, margin lending, prop desk and before you knew it, the government was stepping in just prior to the close on a near daily basis to keep the bottom from falling out. Every time CSRC attempted to step out of the market, chaos ensued. Indeed, even rumors that the government was preparing to scale back the plunge protection were enough to spook investors as we saw in late July when futures sank after a Caijing reporter suggested that the national team was set to rein in its purchases (that reporter was later arrested and charged with causing ‘panic and disorder’).
As August wore on, the cost of propping up the market (which desperately wanted to fall further as legions of semi-literate Chinese day traders who three months earlier had been willing to buy any and all dips suddenly had a mind to sell any and all rips in a frantic attempt to salvage their severely depleted life savings) simply became unbearable and so, Beijing decided to just start arresting anyone who was suspected of being a ‘malicious’ seller. The crackdown – named ‘kill the chicken to scare the monkey’ after a Chinese proverb – was designed to essentially make market participants believe that selling or worse, shorting, could land you in jail.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/27/2015.

Why China Hit The Panic Button On Metals Traders (In 1 Simple Copper Chart)

Within the last week China appears to have hit the panic button with regards the seemingly unstoppable collapse of commodity prices. First, desperate Chinese producers began to demand a QE-for-commodities bailout; then, following the well-trodden (and failing) path of China’s equity market maipulation, authorities began to crackdown on “malicious” commodity short-sellers. So why now? Why focus attention on the commodity markets? Perhaps this chart holds the key…
Having suddenly lost control of the stock market again…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/27/2015.

Goldman’s Meteoronomists Have A Dire Forecast: “Winter Is Coming”

What little credibility the shamanistic voodoo religion that is economics had, it lost over the past 2 years when even the most modest downtick in economic activity was blamed on the “weather.” It appears that as part of their conversion from “economist” to pure-play weathermen, nobody advised Wall Street’s if not best and brightest, then certainly dumbest Keynesians, that adjusting for the seasons, is precisely what seasonal adjustments are for, and why they spend hundreds of hours goalseeking every data point with Arima-X-13 models until they get the result they want.
It was not enough, and in the winter of 2013 and 2014, the farce was indeed complete, when none other than the Bureau of Weather Economic “Analysis” incorporated double seasonal adjustments, to smoothe away what to most was an “inexplicable” slowdown in the US economy, and which was simply a function of two consecutive credit crises hitting China in the latter part of 2013 and 2014.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/27/2015.

Giant ‘Green Energy’ Boondoggle Flops in Spain

$29 billion Vaporized
As is well-known, Spain is one of the countries in the euro area’s periphery that has been thoroughly bankrupted by its decision to join the euro area and enjoy an artificial credit expansion-induced boom as its interest rates initially collapsed. This was aided and abetted by the ECB, which sat idly by as the euro area’s true money supply exploded into the blue yonder with annualized growth rates ranging from 6% to 18% during the boom years.
And why not, the bizarre ‘inflation target’ set by the bureaucrats was after all almost hit most of the time (HICP annualized growth actually fluctuated between 2% and 4% during the boom period, so they missed their target ‘slightly’). Currently the ECB is trying to make up for this faux-pas, by redistributing wealth from the region’s battered savers to its over-indebted governments and insolvent banks by means of expanding the money supply even more and suppressing interest rates well into total economic perversion territory.

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 27, 2015.

NOV 27/GOLD SMASHED IN A ILLIQUID MARKET/PROOF IS GIVEN BY THE RUSSIAN AIR FORCE COMMANDER THAT THE DOWNING OF THE RUSSIAN SU24 WAS ON SYRIA SOIL AND THE USA GAVE INTELLIGENCE AS TO THE TIMING OF…

Gold: $1056.20 down $13.80 (comex closing time)
Silver $14.01 down 16 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1058.50
Silver: $14.08
Today gold was smashed in a very illiquid market, as our banker friends sold 18,000 contracts in a few seconds before the comex opening which set the trend for the rest of the day. Also remember that we are still in options expiry week which ends Dec 1.2015.
At the gold comex today, we had a very good delivery day, registering 201 notices for 2100 ounces. Silver saw 0 notices for nil oz.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 198.17 tonnes for a loss of 105 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest fell by 3,855 contracts despite the fact that silver was unchanged in yesterday’s trading. Generally we are witnessing a massive OI contraction once we approach first day notice. The total silver OI now rests at 166,237 contracts In ounces, the OI is still represented by .831 billion oz or 118% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 24 notice served upon for 120,000 oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI was hit again as this time another massive 4,895 contracts were liquidated as the OI fell to 393,110 contracts. Gold was down by $3.80 with respect to Wednesday’s trading. It seems the modus operandi of the bandits is to try and liquefy gold/silver OI as we approach first day notice on Monday, November 30. They are succeeding in gold but not silver. The bankers get very nervous when OI is rising despite awful prices for the metals. We had 0 notices filed for nil today. As I know everybody is aware that we are now in the options expiry for: a) the comex gold/silver contracts, b) LBMA contracts and c) OTC contracts.
We had a withdrawal of .89 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/ thus the inventory rests tonight at 654.80 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver, we had no change in silver inventory, / Inventory rests at 318.209 million oz.

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 27, 2015.

Fed’s Williams sees strong case for December interest-rate hike (With 94 Million Not In Labor Force?)

Reuters reported that ‘Fed’s Williams sees strong case for December interest-rate hike.’
There is a ‘strong case’ for raising interest rates when Federal Reserve policymakers meet next month, as long as U. S. economic data does not disappoint, a top Fed official said on Saturday.
‘The data I think have been overall encouraging, especially on the labor market,’ San Francisco Fed President John Williams told reporters after a conference at University of California Berkeley’s Clausen Center.
Let’s see if The Fed’s Williams is correct.
If we look at the U3 unemployment rate and jobless claims, both have returned to levels prior to The Great Recession (although it took a hell of a long time since The Great Recession ended in June 2009).

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B. Sanders ‘ November 27, 2015.

Chinese Debt Snowball Gaining Momentum

Financial crises can happen quickly, like the bursting of the tech stock bubble in early 2000, or slowly, like the late-1980s junk bond bust. The shape of the crash depends mostly on the asset in question: Equities can plunge literally overnight, while bonds and bank loans can take a while to reach critical mass.
China’s bursting bubble is of the second type. During its post-2009 infrastructure binge, trillions of dollars were lent to (way too many) producers of cement, steel, chemicals and other basic industrial inputs. And now a growing number of them can’t make their payments:
China’s Bond Stresses Mount as Two More Companies Flag Concerns A Chinese fertilizer maker and a pig iron producer have flagged bond payment difficulties, adding to signs of stress in the nation’s corporate note market after at least six defaults this year. Jiangsu Lvling Runfa Chemical Co., based in the eastern city of Suqian, is asking its guarantor to repay 53.1 million yuan ($8.3 million) in bond principal and interest due Dec. 4, according to a statement posted on Chinamoney’s website. Sichuan Shengda Group Ltd., based in the southwestern province of Sichuan, is uncertain it can repay notes due in 2018 that holders can opt to sell back early on Dec. 5, it said in a statement on the same website Thursday.
More companies in China are struggling to repay bonds amid the worst economic slowdown in a quarter century. China Shanshui Cement Group Ltd. this month became at least the sixth company in 2015 to default on yuan-denominated domestic notes. State-owned steel trader Sinosteel Co. postponed a bond payment for a second time last week.

This post was published at DollarCollapse on November 27, 2015.

Do You Remember When Black Friday Actually Still Mattered In America?

Once upon a time, ‘Black Friday’ was a major event in the United States. Yes, the mainstream media is still endlessly hyping it up, and major retailers are still rolling out their ‘incredible deals’, but it appears that most Americans are tiring of this particular gimmick. Or perhaps it is just that U. S. consumers don’t have as much discretionary income as they once did. As you will see below, retail traffic this Black Friday was ‘much, much slower’ than anticipated. And expectations were not great anyway – the number of shoppers was down last year, and it was being projected that there would be another decline in 2015. Yes, there were still a few fights on Black Friday, but mostly the ‘holiday’ was marked by giant piles of unsold merchandise sitting around collecting dust. The inventory to sales ratio in the U. S. has surged to levels not seen since the last recession, and so the truth is that most retailers were hoping for much more contrived chaos on Black Friday than we actually witnessed.
Personally, I wish that this whole phenomenon would just simply disappear, because it definitely doesn’t bring out the best in the American people.
Who wants to see fellow citizens trampling one another and fighting with one another for cheaply made electronics that aren’t even manufactured in this country anyway?
Black Friday was always a disgusting spectacle, and now it appear to be fading.
Let’s start with Thanksgiving sales. More stores than ever are opening on Thanksgiving Day itself, and according to SunTrust that was a total ‘bust’ this year…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on November 27, 2015.