The Fed’s Options Have Narrowed

The futures have gone all mousey on us in recent days, with little more price movement Sunday night than a cryptic wiggle sideways. With the Fed’s crazy, daring plan for December more or less digested, discounted and smugly appreciated by the banking community, the markets are clearly wondering what the hell is coming next. You can be sure the Fed will be as unhelpful and unclear as possible as it purports to answer that question. As for the banksters, if they put themselves in a tight corner by holding the fed funds rate near zero for a few years, they are about to discover how relatively roomy that corner was.
RICK’S PICKS

This post was published at Rick Ackerman on Sunday, November 22, 2015.

The Economic Impact of Evil

‘Political leaders still think things can be done through force, but that cannot solve terrorism. Backwardness is the breeding ground of terror, and that is what we have to fight.’
– Mikhail Gorbachev
‘… Europe exemplifies a situation unfavorable to a common currency. It is composed of separate nations, speaking different languages, with different customs, and having citizens feeling far greater loyalty and attachment to their own country than to a common market or to the idea of Europe.’
– Professor Milton Friedman, The Times, 19 November 1997
‘There is no example in history of a lasting monetary union that was not linked to one State.’
– Otmar Issing, chief economist of the German Bundesbank in 1991

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on NOVEMBER 22, 2015.

Gold Mini Flash-Crashes At Asian Open

Someone decided that the exact opening of Gold futures trading on a Sunday night – ahead of a holiday week in the US – was the perfect time to liquidate over $161 million notional of ‘paper’ precious metals contracts… Currencies were unmoved, stocks are leaking higher and bonds lower.
Admittedly the flush was modest in size (around a 0.5% drop and pop) but we are sure whover this gold-seller’s fiduciary duty is owed to will not mind at all…
1500 or so contracts liquidated instantly… makes perfect sense.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/22/2015 –.

PM SECTOR BIG GREEN LIGHT AND LOW RISK ENTRY SETUP…

Have the problems exposed by the financial crisis of 2008 been addressed and dealt with to any extent? – no they have not, they have been papered over by creating more debt and printing money, thus making the underlying problems much worse. Has debt shrunk since 2008? – no, it has exploded. Has the money supply contracted since 2008? – no, it has expanded massively. Has the derivatives pyramid been reduced in magnitude since 2008? – no it has continued to compound. Has the global economy grown sufficiently in the years since 2008 to more than cover the extra load imposed by the growth in the factors listed above? No, it has not, all it is has done is limp along, lamed by debt. Logically, one would expect massive expansion or growth in the factors listed above to be bullish for gold and silver, which should hold their value in real terms, and many PM sector investors banking on such logic have as we know been ruined, so why have gold and silver dropped for 4 years now?

This post was published at Clive Maund on November 21st, 2015.

What CNBC Didn’t Tell You About The Market’s “Best Week Of The Year”

“Everything is awesome,” rang out as anchor after anchor explained how the stock market’s “best week of the year” – after mass murder in Paris and as hawkish a Fed as most traders have known was unleashed – was just the start… and Santa Claus was on his way. However, there are a few things they forgot to mention…
The explosive week’s gains – no matter what – perfectly roundtripped stocks to the “better-than expected, good news is bad news” cliff-edge of October’s payrolls…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/22/2015 –.

What NYC Taxicabs Can Tell Us About the Future of the Gold and Silver Markets

This article was submitted by Addison Quale, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.
A fascinating situation is unfolding in New York City, highlighting the clash between government-enforced monopolies and the free market. More importantly, it also foreshadows what will eventually happen to the gold and silver market as the US dollar and other currencies collapse.
As you may know, Uber has made tremendous inroads into the taxi market in NYC. With its greater convenience, low prices, and employee-friendly work conditions, its success threatens to drive the city-regulated yellow cabs out of business.
Jeffrey Tucker highlights the tremendous impact Uber has had on the New York taxi business in a piece he wrote for The Freeman:
In less than one year, we’ve seen the astonishing effects. Not only has the price of taxi medallions fallen dramatically from a peak of $1 million, it’s not even clear that there is a market remaining at all for these permits. There hasn’t been a single medallion sale in four months. They are on the verge of becoming scrap metal or collector’s items destined for eBay.’
A New York City yellow cab medallion confers the right to own and operate a taxi in the five boroughs. As Tucker points out, it was recently worth as much as $1 million. That was before the rise of Uber. Now its value is estimated at around $400,000. That represents more than a 50% decrease in cost.

This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 20, 2015.

Take Advantage Of Falling Retail Stocks With My New Report Format

Note: In response to high number of inquires, I will soon be introducing the Short Sellers Journal newsletter service. In conjunction with this, I’m adding a new report format to my research report offerings. The new format will feature a much shorter, summary format. It will combine some fundamental analysis with chart/technical analysis and trade idea summaries. All ideas will include suggestions for using options if the stocks have somewhat liquid options available for trading.
My debut report feature two retail stocks that I believe could gap down when they report earnings. One company reports this Tuesday (November 24) and one reports on December 3. Both stocks have not sold off recently with the sector and both are excellent longer term short sale plays to take advantage of the high likelihood that retail sales are going to disappoint expectations over the holidays and next year.

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on November 23, 2015.

Baltic Dry Heaves Again and Shanghai Export Freight Craters

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest – Online Course Notes For Financial Markets. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
The economic slowdown in China is reverberating across the globe, especially in terms of shipping costs. China’s biggest trade partner is the USA.0
But the China slowdown is crushing shipping costs as demand for shipments declines.
According to Reuters, shipping freight rates for transporting containers from ports in Asia to Northern Europe plunged by 27.9 percent to $295 per 20-foot container (TEU) in the week ending on Friday, one source with access to data from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index told Reuters.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B. Sanders ‘ November 22, 2015.

Reflections On The Great Monetary Fiasco

Submitted by Doug Noland via Credit Bubble Bulletin,
All great monetary fiascos are forged upon a foundation of misperceptions and flawed premises. There’s always an underlying disturbance in money and Credit masked by supposed new understandings, technologies, capabilities and superior financial apparatus.
During the nineties ‘New Paradigm’ period, exciting new technologies and ‘globalization’ were seen unleashing a productivity and wealth miracle. The Greenspan Fed believed this afforded the economy an accelerated speed limit. With inflation and federal deficits believed conquered, there was little risk associated with low rates and an ‘asymmetrical’ policy approach to support the booming economy and financial markets. The Fed significantly loosened the reins on finance precisely when they needed to be tightened.
The nineties were phenomenal from a financial perspective. Total system Debt about doubled to $25.4 TN. Remarkably, Financial Sector borrowings surged more than 200% to $8.2 TN. Outstanding Agency (GSE) securities ballooned from $1.267 TN to end the decade at $3.916 TN, for growth of 209%. Securities Broker/Dealers (liabilities) jumped 212% to $1.73 TN. ‘Fed Fund and Repo’ expanded 112% to $1.655 TN. Wall Street ‘Funding Corps’ rose 387% to $1.064 TN. Securities Credit surged 414% to $611 billion.
And the most incredible aspect of the nineties boom in ‘Wall Street Finance’? Pertinent to today’s backdrop, the 1990’s Bubble unfolded over years with barely a notice. Everyone was mesmerized by the Internet, exciting new technologies and the white-hot IPO market. I was fixated on what I was convinced was evolving into epic financial innovation and a historic Credit Bubble. Yet attempts to explain this backdrop to other financial professionals, academics, economists, journalists and even Fed officials went absolutely nowhere. Repeatedly I heard frustrating variations of ‘Doug, you don’t understand.’ ‘Only banks create Credit.’ ‘The Federal Reserve controls the money supply.’ ‘Fannie and Freddie are only financial intermediaries – they don’t impact system Credit.’ ‘Financial system borrowings don’t matter. Doug, you’re double-counting debt.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/22/2015.

Can Investors Trust the New Gold Fixing?

Statistical Analysis of the New Gold Fixing
Since 20 March 2015 a new gold price fixing organized by the London Bullion Market Association has been in operation. It has replaced the previous price determination process, which was in place for more than a century and became subject to criticism as it was highly vulnerable to manipulation. Has manipulation now ceased?
There are two gold price fixings in London, an AM one and a PM one. Statistical studies have shown evidence of price anomalies around these points in time during the previous fixing process that suggested price manipulation was taking place. I have first drawn attention to the anomalies surrounding the fixings in 2002. At the time I introduced an examination method designed to uncover price manipulation based on creating an average of intraday price performance. This study showed regularly repeating price declines around the time of the fixing.
We want to examine now whether anything has changed with respect to price manipulation since the introduction of the new fixing process. The chart below shows the average intraday price performance of all days since the introduction of the new fixing until early October, this is to say over a time period of approximately six months. The right hand scale shows the price, the x-axis scale the time of the day (US EST).

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 22, 2015.

What The Fed Hath Wrought – Bonds/Stock Positioning Most Extreme Since The End Of QE1

Having recently explained how “The Fed has done everything it can to avoid surprising the market,” vice-chair Stan Fischer better be right about what happens next. With all the double-edged FedSpeak and CONfidence reiteration – in the face of tsunami-like global deflationary forces only made reflexively worse by a soaring US Dollar – speculators are at extremely short bonds and short VIX (bullish stocks). The last time this happened was the end of QE1…
Aggregating across the entire Treasury future complex, speculators are the most next short since the end of QE1…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/22/2015 –.

The U.S. Dollar Has Already Caused A Global Recession And Now The Fed Is Going To Make It Worse

The 7th largest economy on the entire planet, Brazil, has been gripped by a horrifying recession, as has much of the rest of South America. But it isn’t just South America that is experiencing a very serious economic downturn. We have just learned that Japan (the third largest economy in the world) has lapsed into recession. So has Canada. So has Russia. The dominoes are starting to fall, and it looks like the global economic crisis that has already started is going to accelerate as we head into the end of the year. At this point, global trade is already down about 8.4 percent for the year, and last week the Baltic Dry Shipping Index plummeted to a brand new all-time record low. Unfortunately for all of us, the Federal Reserve is about to do something that will make this global economic slowdown even worse.
Throughout 2015, the U. S. dollar has been getting stronger. That sounds like good news, but the truth is that it is not. When the last financial crisis ended, emerging markets went on a debt binge unlike anything we have ever seen before. But much of that debt was denominated in U. S. dollars, and now this is creating a massive problem. As the U. S. dollar has risen, the prices that many of these emerging markets are getting for the commodities that they export have been declining. Meanwhile, it is taking much more of their own local currencies to pay back and service all of the debts that they have accumulated. Similar conditions contributed to the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, the Asian currency crisis of the 1990s and the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.
Many Americans may be wondering when ‘the next economic crisis’ will arrive, but nobody in Brazil is asking that question. Thanks to the rising U. S. dollar, Brazil has already plunged into a very deep recession…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on November 22nd, 2015.

Brussels Closed Second Day; Spain and UK Consider Joining Fight Against ISIS; Creating Enemies When None Exist

Belgium Terrorist Manhunt Continues
Following Saturday’s imminent attack alert in which Belgium shops were closed and sporting events cancelled, Brussels Remains on Terror Shutdown
Brussels remained in lockdown for a second day on Sunday as Paris sought to spearhead an international response to retaliate against Isis in the wake of the attacks that killed 130 in the French capital.
Belgium raised its terror alert in Brussels to the maximum on Saturday, cancelling major sports events and concerts. Many big shops, museums and restaurants were also closed, after Charles Michel, prime minister, said there was an imminent risk that a group of jihadis was preparing simultaneous attacks with guns and explosives.
Public fears centre on Mr Abdeslam, who was driven back to Brussels immediately after the Paris attacks.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on Sunday, November 22, 2015.

France Releases Picture Of Third Stadium Suicide Bomber

In the days following the deadly attacks that left some 130 people dead in Paris, French authorities scrambled to identify the attackers and determine if other cells operating in France and Belgium were on the verge of staging similar operations.
As it turns out, not only were there more “teams” set to wreak havoc on the city (specifically on La Defense and Quatre Temps), but in fact, the “mastermind” of last Friday’s mayhem – a 27-year old, rising “star” in jihadist circles named Abdelhamid Abaaoud – was in fact hiding out just two kilometers from the site of the stadium bombings.
Now, as Belgium locks down Brussels and ransacks Molenbeek searching for Salah Abdeslam, two other “terrorists”, and an accomplice of Jihadi John known only as “CF”, France has released a picture of the third Stade de France bomber.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/22/2015 –.

Sprott Unleashed: ‘Everything is a Lie… I Dream of the Day Comex Paper Exchange Can’t Deliver Gold’

If the government’s official statistics are to be believed the U. S. economy is moving full steam ahead. Consumer are spending, the job market is expanding, real estate has recovered, stocks are soaring and the U. S. dollar is stronger than it has been in a decade.
But if you have yet to realize it, it’s all a lie. So says billionaire investor Eric Sprott ofSprott Global, which manages hundreds of millions of dollars in contrarian investment funds for clients all over the world. Well known for his long-term bullishness on the resource sector, specifically precious metals, Sprott joined First Mining Finance chairman Keith Neumeyer in a must-see interview where the pair discuss everything from the state of the global economy and trade to gold market manipulation and the inevitable breakdown of highly leveraged paper trading exchanges.
Neumeyer recently sent a very public letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission highlighting rampant price suppression, noting that neither real producers or real consumers are being represented by the manipulative practices of a small concentration of players. Echoing those concerns Sprott suggests that for every 5 tons of real gold there are some 1500 tons worth of claims. The inevitable outcome should claimants ever want to take delivery of physical inventory will be an unprecedented explosion in price:
To be brutally honest, I mean, that’s what I dream of… I think we’re almost at that point where we might very well have a shortage of gold and silver by a product of this last raid here, so much so that we’ll take those 5 tons from the COMEX because we have lots of people buying silver and gold.

This post was published at shtfplan on November 22nd, 2015.

WHY TRUMP REMAINS SO POPULAR

ere are some reasons Trump stays so popular with his supporters:
Highly relatable lack of qualifications for holding government office Americans’ appreciation for classic underdog story of man who started with only several hundred million dollars and went on to make several billion dollars

This post was published at The Burning Platform on 22nd November 2015.

Belgium PM Maintains Maximum Terror Alert, Confirms Threat Still “Imminent, Serious”; Civilians Urged To “Remain At Home”

Latest Update:
*MICHEL: BRUSSELS TERROR THREAT STILL SERIOUS AND IMMINENT *BELGIUM’S MICHEL: TERROR ALERT REMAINS AT LEVEL 4 *MICHEL: TERROR ALERT IN BRUSSELS STAYS AT HIGHEST LEVEL *BELGIUM’S MICHEL: BRUSSELS METRO TO STAY CLOSED UNTIL MONDAY *BRUSSELS SCHOOLS, UNIVERSITIES, COLLEGES TO BE CLOSED MONDAY *BELGIUM’S MICHEL: WILL RE-ASSESS TERROR THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON *MICHEL: HAVE TAKEN STEPS WITH EU INSTITUTIONS IN BRUSSELS So – much like The Fed, it appears Belgian officials find themselves trapped at the lower bound of liberty and freedom and higher bound of terror and fearmongery.
As we detailed earlier,
On Saturday, police and other security personnel instituted what amounts to a military lockdown of Brussels amid a ‘serious and imminent’ terror threat.
The government’s crisis center advised the public to ‘avoid places where a lot of people come together like shopping centers, concerts, events or public transport stations wherever possible.’ The metro was closed, bus drivers refused to work, and local authorities were encouraged to cancel large events. Soldiers and police carrying assault rifles patrolled the streets where military vehicles were parked and for all intents and purposes, residents were told to simply stay inside.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/22/2015 –.

Great News, Wall Street: The Economy Is Coming Unglued

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
Commodity prices are plunging, the dollar is powering higher, Obamacare is collapsing, economies everywhere are faltering and terrorism is spreading across the globe.
That’s bad news. Unless you happen to be among the stock marketinvestors who in the U. S. spent the last week bidding up stock prices like there is no tomorrow. They are playing with fire and are likely to get burned.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 3.5% or 579 points to 17,823.81 while the S&P 500 jumped 3.3% or 66 points back to 2089.17. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 3.6% to reach 5104.92.
Below the surface, however, market internals were horrible with anything energy related getting ‘schmeissed’ in the words of legendary market guru Doug Kass.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Michael E. Lewitt ‘ November 22, 2015.