Gold: $1080.90 down $3.90 (comex closing time)
Silver $14.22 down 4 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1084.50
Silver: $14.30
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
At the gold comex today, we had a very poor delivery day, registering 0 notice for nil ounces. Silver saw 0 notices for nil oz.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 209.72 tonnes for a loss of 93 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest surprisingly rose by a considerable 3,553 contracts despite silver being down by 6 cents in yesterday’s trading. The total silver OI now rests at 165,988 contracts In ounces, the OI is still represented by .829 billion oz or 119% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI fell by a huge 8442 contracts to 427,984 contracts as gold was down by $0.30 yesterday. It seems the modus operandi of the bandits is to liquefy gold/silver OI as be approach first day notice on Monday, November 30. They succeeded in gold but not silver. We had 0 notices filed for nil today.
We had a huge withdrawal in gold inventory at the GLD to the tune of 1.49 tonnes / thus the inventory rests tonight at 661.94 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver, we had a huge addition in silver inventory to the tune of 1.43 milllion oz / Inventory rests at 315.111 million oz.
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 12, 2015.

Here Is The Biggest, And Most Underreported, Risk Facing China

When it comes to the laundry list of China “hard-landing” risk factors, after many years, even the mainstream media has finally gotten it mostly right:
a slowing economy crippled by soaring debt, now over 300% of GDP an economy which is overly reliant on fixed investment an artificially high exchange rate which is adversely impacting exports and impairing trade, in a “beggar thy neighbor” world everyone is rapidly devaluing their own currency the feedback loop of plunging commodity prices and highly levered domestic corporation which can not pay their annual interest expense payments at current prices of industrial commodities, leading to surging business failures and defaults a burst housing bubble which recently popped (although slowly growing again) a burst stock market bubble which recently popped (although slowly growing again) Non-performing loans, as high as 20%, and metastssizing across the Chinese banking sector And much more.
However one risk, perhaps the biggest one, which has so far flown deep under the radar, is also the biggest one – which may explain why so few have noticed it – namely social discontent, resulting from a breakdown in recent “agreeable” labor conditions, wage cuts and rising unemployment, leading to labor strikes and in some cases, violence.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/12/2015.

JOLTS Data Keep the Low-Wage Recovery Story Intact

It’s JOLTS day again today – the day the Labor Department releases its new data on turnover in the American labor market. This morning’s results could be more important ever, because these numbers measuring job openings and business hirings and employee voluntary departures (quits) are reportedly among those relied on most heavily by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in determining the employment scene’s health. And that judgment in turn will surely bear heavily on the Fed’s widely expected decision next month on raising interest rates.
All the smart money, of course, is expecting the rate controlled directly by the Fed to get hiked above the zero level for the first time since the end of 2008 – at the nadir of the financial crisis. But if the JOLTS data really is so crucial, that smart money may not be so confident. For the new JOLTS figures on job openings keep intact the longstanding story of the American jobs market as an increasingly low-wage jobs market.
As with previous posts on the subject, I get to this conclusion by looking at job openings in the economy’s lowest wage sectors as a share of the total. These industries include retail trade, leisure and hospitality, and the low-wage portion of the big but incredibly diverse professional and business services. That latter number isn’t published as such, but I assume (reasonably) that the low-wage share of professional and business services openings is the same as those sectors’ share of that category’s total employment.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Alan Tonelson ‘ November 12, 2015.

The Global Oil Glut Is Getting Worse, Not Better

Oil futures prices (WTI) plunged 12.5% this week from $47.90 on Friday, November 3 to $41.96 yesterday morning, November 11. The main reason is that the global supply imbalance is getting worse.
The U. S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest report indicates that the world supply surplus (production minus consumption) increased 590,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to September to 1.58 million bpd (Figure 1):
Supply was flat but consumption decreased 520,000 bpd. Weaker consumption suggests weakening demand, a disturbing trend that is also evident in year-over-year consumption-change data (Figure 2).

This post was published at Wolf Street on November 12, 2015.

Something Went Wrong on the Way to the Future

Lies and Misunderstandings
NORMANDY, France – U. S. stocks showed little interest in moving either up or down on Tuesday. So they just sat tight. As we keep saying, you can get any opinion you want. The problem is you can also get any fact you want…
Yesterday, our friend and economist Pierre Lemieux challenged the numbers in Monday’s Diary on the U. S. manufacturing recession:
‘You write, ‘In real terms, the typical man of working age in the U. S. earns less today than he did in 1975 – 40 years ago.’ Where did you get this data?
Even the notably unreliable data of the Census Bureau on median family income are not that dark. All data I know show that, in the U. S., real incomes have grown over the last 40 years. I am sure it is the same in Europe. Some prices have increased, like home prices, relative to other prices, and it is quite certainly more difficult to buy a house now than back then.
Most other things are easier to afford – including for the typical worker. This is confirmed by casual observation: Look at their cars, their TV sets, their boats, their vacations, their appliances, their restaurants (not to speak of computers). Look at their children’s cars, iPhones, shoes, etc. Indeed, look at their hunting or hiking boots with Thinsulate and Gore-Tex!’

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 13, 2015.

World’s Largest Hedge Fund Slashed Its US Public Equity Holdings By 31% In The Third Quarter

The world’s biggest hedge fund, Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates got into some hot water in the past few months when it was accused by many members of the underperforming “hedge fund hotel” club for being the “risk parity” catalyst that sent the market tumbling in August, and perhaps for being the catalyst for the August 24 market crash.
And while the bulk of Bridgewater’s asset are in various commodities and futures, most of which are never reported to the public, earlier today it did disclose its long holdings in public equities when it filed its latest 13F. Perhaps those accusing Bridgewater of being the market-moving catalyst did have a point, because after posting a total AUM of $10.8 billion at June, this total declined by a whopping 31% to just $7.5 billion as of September 30.
Here is what Brigewater was dumping (and adding).
Bridgewater sold 41% of its holdings in the world’s two largest EM ETFs in the third quarter amid a rout in developing-nation assets. Specifically, it cut its investments in Vanguard Group Inc. and BlackRock Inc.’s ETFs to a combined 104 million shares, from 175 million in the previous three-month period.
The value of the ETF holdings dropped more than 50 percent to $3.4 billion as a result of share price declines and the divestments.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/12/2015.

Record UK Gold Export To China In September, Chinese Gold Import Reaches 156t

According to the most recent data from Eurostat the UK has net exported 37.6 tonnes of gold to China in September, an all-time record. This figure is up 25 % m/m and up 280 % y/y.
The UK started exporting gold directly to China in April 2014 when it shipped 5 tonnes to the mainland while for the first time bypassing Switzerland and Hong Kong. In total the UK net exported 114 tonnes to China in 2014. Year to date the UK has already net exported 210 tonnes of gold to China, annualized a whopping 280 tonnes – which would be 146 % more than last year. The exodus of gold from the West to the East is still in full swing.

This post was published at Bullion Star on 12 Nov 2015.

3 Things: Retail-Less, Buybacks, EBITDA

Small Business Not Optimistic About Spending
The perennial hopes of a strong retail shopping season are once again upon us. As always, the National Retail Federation (NRF) is kicking of the season with their always cheerful holiday forecast. To wit:
“The National Retail Federation announced today it expects sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurant sales) to increase a solid 3.7 percent to $630.5 billion – significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent. Holiday sales in 2015 are expected to represent approximately 19 percent of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion. Additionally, NRF is forecasting online sales to increase between 6 and 8 percent to as much as $105 billion.”

This post was published at StreetTalkLive on 11 November 2015.

This All Has A Familiar Ring To It

The recent new highs on the $NDX accompanying the recent rally off of the August and September lows have been accompanied by bullish headlines. $SPX 2300 , $DJIA 20K, etc. And it is true the action in some stocks is truly awe inspiring.
Yet all the action has an oddly familiar ring to it and it may not be bullish. While most traders today haven’t really lived through the 2000 bubble older hats like me have institutional memory. Back then it was the ‘horsemen’ of stocks that seemed to defy gravity and just kept pushing higher to stratospheric valuations. Yet back then the leadership was ever more narrowing and oddly enough we are now finding ourselves at a very similar spot.
And not only is the leadership narrowing, but it is happening at exactly the same price level.
In the $NDX chart below the horizontal red line is representing the exact same price as 15 years ago, right at the market’s peak of the year 2000. Note the negative divergence on the bullish percentage of stocks in the $COMPQ (click chart to zoom in). New highs with fewer stocks participating:

It is of course the $COMPQ that did not confirm news highs during this recent rally:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/12/2015.

Russia Takes The Next Step Launches Crude Benchmark To Bypass The Dollar – Episode 816a

The following video was published by X22Report on Nov 12, 2015
Greece implodes as the people decided enough is enough and stage their first strike. Australia puts out it job numbers and the media call the government out on it saying they are fake. US freight and railroad deliveries decline again. The Baltic Dry Index drops to 579. There are now signs that look very similar to 2008 right before the system crashed. Russia is no creating its own oil benchmark to rival Brent Woods to bypass the dollar. There is so much oil on the market oil tankers do not have any place to go.

Big New Signs of Re-Bubble-Ization

One of the more praiseworthy features of the Fox Business Republican debate was the discussion of the last mega-financial crisis and how to prevent a repeat. Although at their debate on CNN the Democratic presidential candidates were quizzed on the bubble and its bursting and possible remedies, the Milwaukee event marked the first time these subjects came up for the Republicans.
Better late than never, but that’s pretty strange given that the last bubbles inflated and the crisis broke out on the GOP’s watch. In fact, it’s downright disturbing. For a new meltdown remains by far the greatest economic threat to America’s future due to the Federal Reserve’s overly easy money policies – despite the latest reassurances from former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke that such warnings are ludicrous. Maybe not so coincidentally, two important new signs of re-bubble-ization have just appeared.
The first was reported by Quartz’s Matt Phillips, who pointed out that the Federal Reserve’s latest figures on Americans’ borrowing behavior showed that consumers in September took out an all-time record $28.9 billion in new loans in September. In the process, they broke a record set 14 years ago, and increased their credit outstanding by the greatest percentage since 1943 – when these records started to be kept. And even if you adjust for inflation, household borrowing is at lofty levels historically.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Alan Tonelson ‘ November 12, 2015.

Nordstrom Plummets After Abysmal Results, Slashing Guidance

If there were any questions if the US consumer was merely “strong” or “quite strong”, after the abysmal results from Macy’s first, and moments ago, Nordstrom, they should all be safely swept away now.
Any time a company starts its press release with a blatant mea culpa… run. Like in the case of Nordstrom: “The Company’s third quarter performance was below Company expectations, reflecting softer sales trends that were generally consistent across channels and merchandise categories.”
What happened was ugly: the company reported revenue of $3.24 billion, a miss to the $3.38 billion expected, and EPS of $0.42, nearly 50% below the expected $72. Q3 EBIT likewise crashed from $262 million to $151 Y/Y, as comp store sales of 0.9% were massively below the 3.6% expected.
Amusingly the retailers are unable to keep their lies straight – on one hand you have Macy’s blame the warm weather for plunging sales, and here you have JWN saying costs were among its best sellers: “Nordstrom comparable sales, which consist of full-line stores and, increased 0.3 percent. The top-performing merchandise category was Cosmetics. In addition, coats, younger customer-focused departments and dresses continued to reflect strength in Women’s Apparel.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/12/2015.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker Caught in Another Lie, Plans Mutualized Bank Guarantees

Mutualized Bank Guarantees
Although denying that was his intention, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker Plans Deposit Guarantee Fund by 2024.
Brussels is drawing up plans to gradually siphon cash away from national bank deposit guarantee schemes over the next decade to fund a new eurozone-wide insurance system, a move likely to trigger a bitter clash with Germany.
According to draft proposals from the European Commission seen by the Financial Times, the new ‘European Deposit Insurance Scheme’ would initially serve as a back-up for national guarantee funds. But it would evolve via intermediate steps into a fully mutualised system by 2024, the documents show.
Many eurozone governments and the European Central Bank argue that a euro-area wide scheme would convince depositors their euros are safe and could never be repaid in national currencies, a fear that helped spark a bank run in Greece. But Germany has fiercely resisted any move to share risk that could leave its depositors or taxpayers on the hook for other countries’ banking system.
In September the German finance ministry fired a warning shot at Brussels, circulating a paper to national capitals saying the commission’s plans to introduce legislation was ‘unacceptable’.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on November 12, 2015.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – How Long?

History says, don’t hope On this side of the grave. But then, once in a lifetime The longed-for tidal wave Of justice can rise up, And hope and history rhyme.
Seamus Heaney
Gold and silver were hit by some of the usual sharp and short selling, but most of the gains were taken back by gold during the afternoon. For silver, not so much.
As noted intraday in the NAV chart, the gold/silver ratio is very historically high at 75.
It was heartening that gold held the 1080 level despite the attempt to push the metals lower.
Note that the USD DX index has fallen for two straight days.
There is some correlation between gold in dollars, and the swiss franc and euro in dollars as well. I show that in the first chart below.
This does not always happen, but sometimes it does. And I describe this as ‘gold trading as a currency.’
This in itself is not a problem per se. But it does ignore the hard reality that while the central banks may own a printing press, and are most assuredly not afraid to use it, they do not own a gold bullion machine over which they have the kind of discretion which they enjoy with fiat money. And we we end up with a marketplace choked with leverage and backed by multiply hypothecated, papier-mch bullion.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 12 NOVEMBER 2015.

Marshal Yellen Says ‘Shoot First, Ask Questions Later’

According to the Associated Press (via Drudge), Fed Chair Janet Yellen said ‘Additional Research Needed On Unconventional (Fed) Policy Tools.
WASHINGTON (AP) – Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is stressing the need to review the unconventional monetary policies that central banks around the world deployed in response to the 2008 global financial crisis. Does this mean the Marshal Bernanke and Marshal Yellen shot first and NOW want to ask questions about how quantitative easing will work????
This reminds me of the scene in the film Death Becomes Her when Meryl Streep drinks the magic life-extending potion and Isabella Rossellini says ‘Now a warning.’

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B. Sanders ‘ November 12, 2015.

China Panics: Sends Fiscal Spending Through The Roof As Credit Creation Tumbles

Earlier this week, MNI suggested that according to discussions with bank personnel in China, data on lending for October was likely to come in exceptionally weak. That would mark a reversal from September when the credit impulse looked particularly strong and the numbers topped estimates handily.
‘One source familiar with the data said new loans by the Big Four state-owned commercial banks in October plunged to a level that hasn’t been seen for many years,’ MNI reported.
Given that, and given what we know about rising NPLs and a lack of demand for credit as the country copes with a troubling excess capacity problem, none of the above should come as a surprise.
Well, the numbers are out and sure enough, they disappointed to the downside. RMB new loans came at just CNY514bn in October – consensus was far higher at CNY800bn. That was down 6.3% Y/Y. Total social financing fell 29% Y/Y to CNY447 billion, down sharply from September’s CNY1.3 trillion print. Here’s Barclays with the breakdown:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/12/2015.

Why a Fed Interest Rate Hike Is Coming in December

Six U. S. Federal Reserve officials, including Chairwoman Janet Yellen, give speeches today (Thursday) on monetary policy. Investors are anxiously listening for clues on whether a Fed interest rate hike will take place at next month’s FOMC meeting on Dec. 15-16.
After keeping rates unchanged at last month’s meeting, policymakers have laid out the possibility of a December Fed interest rate hike. Officials pointed to ‘solid rates’ of growth in consumer spending and business investment. They also removed a warning from their previous statement saying a global economic slowdown could weaken the U. S. economy.
Now, Fed officials are directly hinting at raising interest rates at the two-day summit next month. Many cite a well-performing economy and growing domestic spending as justification for a rate hike.
‘We’ve indicated that conditions look like they could be right for an increase,’ Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told CNBC on Nov. 6. ‘The real side of the economy is looking a lot better.’

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Alex McGuire – November 12, 2015.

Another Paid-for Protest? #MillionStudentMarch Campus Uprising Has George Soros Written All over It

The pot is being stirred. It’s no coincidence that WAPO published an article two days ago about how college campuses are once again becoming ‘civil rights battlegrounds’. It’s also no surprise at all that the nationwide protest going down today is timed perfectly to piggy back off the media outcry over the University of Missouri protests, either.
In what is being called ‘a day of action,’ a highly organized, scripted, and surely bought-and-paid-for #MillionStudentMarch is scheduled to take place on 106 colleges campuses across America today.
The #MillionStudentMarch movement has its own website started by Elan Axelbank, a Northwestern student and activist member of the Socialist Alternative movement who also has enough time on his hands as a student to co-found not only the Million Student March but 15 Now, a group that demands to ‘end poverty wages’ by making the national minimum wage $15/hour.
The Million Student March demands free college tuition, a cancellation of all student loan debt, and not surprisingly, a $15 minimum wage for all campus workers.

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on November 12th, 2015.