Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Pop Go the Weasels

Gold and silver were hammered lower right on the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report.
The number looked like an outlier to me based on a overly generous seasonal adjustment. If they had applied the same seasonality factor which they used last October the headline number would have been around 144,000.
There was one more business day in October last year, but jobs are not jars, and production of new jobs is not a linear daily function.
This is not to say that the NFP number was ‘wrong’ or even purposely fat in order to provide confidence to the markets and useful cover for the Fed.
Rather, these headline numbers for a single month are very noisy as we have discussed before. They get revised several times in the short term, and then often radically so in whole revisions that go back years.
This is why I like to look at the six and nine month moving averages for jobs to get a feeling for the trend. And the trend is still fairly sluggish.
But at the end of the day, the Fed wants to raise rates for all the reasons we have discussed, mostly having to do with their own policy mechanics.
And the financiers want to do what they wish to do, and they have their way for now. Winning.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 06 NOVEMBER 2015.

180-Sq-Ft Shack in Palo Alto for Sale, only $2 Million

A lot of things are utterly ridiculous regarding the economy and the wealth gap in this country. The made up economy. Unemployment figures. All of it.
Homeownership, for one, has fallen to the lowest level in America in nearly 50 years.
The rent, it seems, really is too damn high.
But hey, it’s all good. Apparently in one of America’s most expensive cities, Palo Alto, California, you too can buy your very own shack for the low, low price of just $2 million, or what the listing calls ‘an exciting opportunity for someone ‘to build their dream home.’

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on November 6th, 2015.

Tech Bubble Unravelling: Square To Go Public At 30% Discount To Latest Private Round

Two weeks ago, we reported that one of the numerous “unicorns” prancing around Silicon Valley was about to have a very rude wake up call when Dropbox was warned by its investment bankers that it would be unable to go public at a valuation anywhere near close to what its last private round (which had most recently risen to $10 billion from $4 billion a year ago) valued it at.
And while Dropbox’s day of public reckoning approaches, another company realized today just how big the second “private” tech bubble, one we profiled first in January of 2014, truly is. That company is Jack Dorsey’s Square, which earlier today filed a prospectus in which it said that the “initial public offering price per share of Class A common stock will be between $11.00 and $13.00.”
Assuming a mid-point price of $12 and applying the 322.9 million shares outstanding after the offering, it means a valuation of $3.9 billion. The problem is that in its last private fundraising round, Square was valued at about $6 billion according to ReCode.
Needless to say, IPOs are meant to come at a valuation that puts all the prior rounds of private investors “in the money.” Not this time.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/06/2015.

World’s Largest Steelmaker Reports Huge Loss, Suspends Dividend, Blames China

It’s no secret that Beijing has an excess capacity problem.
Indeed, the idea that a yearslong industrial buildup intended to support i) the expansion of the smokestack economy, ii) a real estate boom, and iii) robust worldwide demand ultimately served to create a supply glut in China is one of the key narratives when it comes to analyzing the global macro picture.
That, combined with ZIRP’s uncanny ability to keep uneconomic producers in business, has served to drive down commodity prices the world over, imperiling many an emerging market and driving a bevy of drillers, diggers, and pumpers to the brink of insolvency.
As we noted late last month, if you want to get a read on just how acute the situation truly is, look no further than China’s “ghost cities”…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/06/2015.

Will Ben Carson’s Admitted Lie Regarding a West Point Scholarship Mark the End of His Presidential Campaign?

Telling self-congratulatory lies is never a bright idea.
Telling easily verifiable self-congratulatory lies and bragging about them in a book is downright stupid. But that’s precisely what presidential candidate Ben Carson did.
Please consider US Presidential Hopeful Ben Carson Admits to West Point Offer Lie.
In his autobiography, Gifted Hands, Mr Carson tells an inspirational rags-to-riches story about his rise from a Detroit ghetto to becoming the youngest head of paediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital. In the book, he claims to have been offered a full scholarship to West Point, but wrote that he turned down the offer to pursue his dream of becoming a doctor. On Friday, his campaign admitted that he had not even applied to the college.
Donald Trump, the real estate mogul who is neck and neck with Mr Carson at the top of the polls, quickly seized on the scandal which was first reported by Politico, retweeting several critical tweets including one that read: ‘WOW, one of many lies by Ben Carson! Big story.’

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on November 06, 2015.

Consumer Credit Has Biggest Jump In History, Led By Government-Funded Car And Student Loans

If there was any confusion where all those soaring new car sales are coming from, we now have the definitive answer: moments ago the latest consumer credit data for September was released, and surging by $28.9 billion – a 4.9% jump Y/Y – not only did this smash expectations of a “modest” $18 billion rise, this was the biggest monthly increase ever!

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/06/2015.

US Government Says Full Recovery, Then Why Can’t 94 Million People Find A Job? – Episode 811a

The following video was published by X22Report on Nov 6, 2015
Unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%. The labor participation rate is at its lowest. The jobs that were created were part-time jobs for those 55 years and older. Baltic Dry Index hits its lowest point, trains and truck deliveries declining. Russia has become the 4th countries to issue Chinese bonds. Iran and Russia are planning on a secret passage for oil deliveries. TPP has been released and the trade deal is not for the people but for the corporations and bankers.

Is This The Green Light To Hike Rates?

Today’s euphoric unemployment print of 5.0% was based on a total employment number of 149.120 million, with 7.908 million workers unemployment (and another 94.5 million out of the labor force).
The number was so good, the market is now confident the Fed will hike rates in December.
So how does US employment growth look like in context and is this really the catalyst for the Fed to hike rates signalling a jump of confidence in the economy?

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/06/2015.

The Fed Has Already HYPERINFLATED The Dollar

The following video was published by on Nov 6, 2015
Jeff Nielson is back to discuss Friday’s absurd jobs report and the hardcore reality about the US debt ceiling, the Dollar and hyperinflation: “Increasing the money supply is inflation. A hyperbolic increase in the money supply is BY DEFINITION “hyperinflation”. The Federal Reserve has already hyperinflated the US Dollar, It’s a past tense. Nothing can prevent it, it’s already been done.” – Jeff Nielson


Gold: $1087.60 down $16.80 (comex closing time)
Silver $14.69 down 30 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1088.90
Silver: $14.77
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
At the gold comex today, we had a very poor delivery day, registering 1 notice for 100 ounces. Silver saw 0 notices for nil oz.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 208.82 tonnes for a loss of 94 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest surprisingly rose by 117 contracts despite silver being down 7 cents in Thursday’s trading. The total silver OI now rests at 166,915 contracts In ounces, the OI is still represented by .835 billion oz or 119% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI fell by a monstrous 10,742 contracts to 435,640 contracts as gold was down $2.10 yesterday. No doubt with the raid today, the entire OI gold complex will see a massive OI decline on Monday. We had 1 notice filed for 100 oz today.
We had a huge withdrawal in gold inventory at the GLD to the tune of 2.68 tonnes / thus the inventory rests tonight at 669.09 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver, no change in silver inventory / Inventory rests at 313.817 million oz.
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 6, 2015.

Wealthiest Americans Ominously Remind Nation They Could Easily Drop Another $10 Billion On Election

Fact or Fiction…
Calmly stating that they would not even need to think twice about doing so, the nation’s wealthiest individuals ominously reminded the populace during a press conference Wednesday that they could easily drop another $10 billion on the 2016 election.
‘We want to make it completely clear to voters that there’s absolutely no reason – none at all – why we couldn’t shell out another $10 billion between now and next November,’ said casino magnate Sheldon Adelson on behalf of the top tenth of a percent of income-earners in the U. S., adding that creating dozens of new and extremely well-funded super PACs would mean practically nothing to them.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/06/2015.

A Stunning Admission From A BOE Central Banker: This Is What The Coming “Helicopter Money” Will Look Like

Back in early 2009, just around the time the Fed announced it would unleash QE1, we warned that any attempt to reflate the debt (a pathway which ultimately leads to hyperinflation as monetary paradrops are the only logical outcome as a result of the deflationary failure of the intermediate steps) would fail, and instead would saddle the world with even more debt, making monetary financing, i.e., paradropping money, the inevitable outcome.
We said that instead, the right move would be to liquidate the excess debt, and start anew – a step which, however, would wipe out trillions in (underwater) equity, something which the status quo would never agree to, as that is where the bulk of its wealth is contained.
7 years later, debt is well over $200 trillion, having risen by more than $60 trillion in the interim, and we are rapidly approaching the peak of the world’s debt capacity as we noted a month ago in “The World Hits Its Credit Limit, And The Debt Market Is Starting To Realize That.”
Today, we find that none other than Adair Turner, a member of the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee and a Chairman of the Financial Services Authority, wrote a long essay in Bloomberg which admits everything we have warned about.
To wit:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/06/2015.

Manufacturing Job Creation is Oh-for-October; Sector Now Mired in Employment and Output Recessions

Although the American economy created a surprisingly strong 271,000 net new jobs on month in October, manufacturing generated no gain during this period. Largely as a result, the sector’s absolute employment levels are now lower than in January, a 10-month stretch that qualifies as a recession, and that no doubt stems from the production recession in which industry is also mired. Moreover, manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment hit a new all-time low of 8.63 percent. Industry’s annual 80,000 October jobs advance was the lowest such improvement since September, 2013, and wage increases in the sector resumed trailing those of the private sector overall.
Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (October) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
>Although the entire non-farm U. S. economy in October posted its best monthly jobs gain since May, manufacturing’s failure to add any positions at all pushed the sector into its first jobs recession since the sector hit its last absolute employment bottom – in February and March of 2010. Not coincidentally, according to the Federal Reserve’s industrial production index, manufacturing is mired in an output recession as well.
>Total manufacturing employment of 12.317 million is 1,000 below its level in January, 10 months ago. The sector has not experienced such a long stretch of weak job-creation since it was recovering from the Great Recession.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Alan Tonelson ‘ November 6, 2015.

It’s Official: The Baltic Dry Index Has Crashed To Its Lowest November Level In History

2015 has been an ‘odd’ year. Typically this time of year sees demand picking up amid holiday inventory stacking and measures of global trade such as The Baltic Dry Index rise from mid-summer to Thanksgiving. This year, it has not.

In fact, it has plummeted as the world’s economic engines slow and reality under the covers of global stock markets suggests a massive deflationary wave (following a massive mal-investment boom). At a level of 631, this is the lowest cost for Baltic Dry Freight Index for this time of year in history.. and within a small drop of an all-time historical low.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/06/2015.

Shorts Savage Gold After Fed

Gold has enjoyed a strong new uptrend in recent months following last summer’s extreme gold-futures shorting attack. But speculators returned with a vengeance this past week, aggressively dumping gold futures again following a hawkish surprise by the Fed. The resulting gold plunge shattered its support, and thrust sentiment back into hyper-bearish territory. But gold-futures shorting soon reverses to big buying.
In recent years the gold-futures trading by American speculators has utterly dominated the gold price. With investors still missing in action thanks to the Fed’s astounding stock-market levitation, speculators’ reign is unchallenged. Gold is not only at the mercy of their mercurial sentiment, the leveraged nature of futures speculation grants their collective trades an outsized impact on gold’s price. They rule the roost today.
With global stock markets levitating due to extreme central-bank money printing and jawboning, normal investment demand for gold has relentlessly withered away. With endless easy money buoying stocks ever higher, gold’s traditional role as a critical portfolio diversifier that moves counter to stocks just isn’t valued today. This has led to radical gold underinvestment, creating a demand vacuum for speculators to fill.
And thanks to futures’ inherent extreme leverage, speculators’ firepower to move gold prices is nothing short of immense. When an investor buys 100 ounces of physical gold, the equivalent to a single gold-futures contract, they have to pay $115k at $1150 gold. If they choose to gain gold exposure via the leading GLD gold ETF instead, they can run margin of up to 50%. That lowers their buy-in cost to $57.5k.
But futures speculators can effectively buy or sell gold in 100-ounce increments with far-higher leverage than stock traders. This week, the minimum maintenance margin on a gold-futures contract was just $3750. That’s all it takes for speculators to control 100 ounces of gold worth $115k at $1150! This is incredible leverage of 30.7x, vastly greater than the 41-year-old legal limit in the stock markets of just 2.0x.

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on November 6, 2015.