Economists’ Models Are Losing Their Grasp On The Real State Of The Economy

Citigroup’s – Citi Surprise Index (CSI) is a real-time model, designed to analyze the accuracy of Wall Street’s economic forecasts. A positive index value indicates that recent economic data is stronger than the consensus of economists’ expectations. A negative reading denotes economic data which is worse than expectations. Unbeknownst to most investors, the CSI also serves as a gauge of sentiment and provides unique insight into how well economists understand the current economic cycle.
Appreciation for the multitude of messages provided by the CSI allows investors to stay a step ahead of the economic models that Wall Street, and by default most investors, rely heavily on to forecast market levels and securities prices. This is more important than ever now as markets appear more concerned with economic data’s deviation from forecasts and less concerned with the absolute reading of the very same data and what it signifies for economic growth. At 720 Global, our objective is to help investment professionals outperform and differentiate themselves in many ways. We believe offering unique and substantive analysis, such as this unique way to interpret the CSI, affords insights that go well beyond the obvious and superficial.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/17/2015.