NOV 14/GOLD IS UP $4.00 DESPITE BANKER ATTEMPTS TO QUASH THE METAL/SILVER ALSO REBOUNDS/SILVER AND FINISHES UP 3 CENTS/LONG TERM BOND YIELDS FALTER/CHINESE MARKETS FALL/THE ONLY POSITIVE TODAY WA…

GOLD: $1282.85 UP $4.00
Silver: $17.08 UP 3 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1280.50
silver: $17.02
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1285.54 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1276.15
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.39
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1286.85
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1277.10
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$9.75
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1273.50
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1273.20
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1274.60
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1273.86
For comex gold:
NOVEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 991 FOR 99,100 OZ (3.082TONNES)
For silver:
NOVEMBER
2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
10,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 874 for 4,370,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 14, 2017.

George Soros To Congress: “Please Don’t Cut My Taxes”

After transferring over the bulk of his personal wealth to his ‘Open Society’ Foundation – the umbrella organization for a network of dozens of political groups that push Soros’s far-left agenda across the US and Europe, Soros is still comfortable enough to justify giving away even more of his money – this time to the US federal government.
Taking a page out of Warren Buffett’s book, Soros and a group of some 400 other rich Americans – including doctors, lawyers and CEOs – are sending a formal letter to Congress chiding lawmakers for trying to reduce taxes on the richest American families at a time when wealth inequality is rapidly expanding. Instead, the letter asks Congress not to pass any tax bill that ‘further exacerbates inequality’ and adds to the debt (both of the current Republican plans would add $1.5 trillion to the debt over 10 years).
The letter was penned by Responsible Wealth, a group of ‘enlightened’ rich people that includes Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream founders Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield, fashion designer Eileen Fisher and philanthropist Steven Rockefeller, in addition to Soros. Along with the big names are many individuals and couples who rank among the top 5% of Americans (those who have $1.5 million in assets or earn $250,000 or more a year).
In a rebuttal to Congress’s argument that corporate tax cuts will help stimulate growth, the letter argues that corporations are already reaping record profits. Instead of handing more money to the wealthy, the letter’s signers argue the government should use the funds to invest in education, research and roads that benefit everyone, while protecting entitlement programs like Medicaid.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2017.

Claudio Grass Interviews Mark Thornton

Introduction
Mark Thornton of the Mises Institute and our good friend Claudio Grass recently discussed a number of key issues, sharing their perspectives on important economic and geopolitical developments that are currently on the minds of many US and European citizens.
A video of the interview can be found at the end of this post. Claudio provided us with a written summary of the interview which we present below – we have added a few remarks in brackets (we strongly recommend checking the podcast out in its entirety – there is a lot more than is covered by the summary).
Interview Highlights
We currently find ourselves in a historically and economically significant transition period. The already overstretched bubble in the markets is still expanding, but we now see bold moves by the Fed to reduce its balance sheet, at the same time the ECB plans to taper, overall presenting us with a fairly deflationary outlook. This reversal of the expansionary policies of the last decade can be seen as the first step toward a potentially ferocious correction in the not-too-distant future.
The ECB is trapped, as it already holds 40% of euro zone sovereign debt. At the same time, Spain, Italy and Greece continue to potentially present major challenges, as a banking crisis could easily reemerge in these countries [ed note: banks in Europe have managed to boost their capital ratios, but the amount of legacy non-performing loans in the system remains close to EUR 1 trn. Moreover, TARGET-2 imbalances have recently reached new record highs, a strong sign that the underlying systemic imbalances remain as pronounced as ever]. Mario Draghi intends to reduce the ECB’s asset purchases from EUR60 billion to EUR30 billion per month. He may soon realize that if the ECB does not buy euro zone bonds, no-one will.

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 14, 2017.

The Fed Issues A Subprime Warning As Household Debt Hits A New All Time High

After we first reported last week that US credit card debt once again rose above $1 trillion, despite a recent sharp downward revision to the data, while both student and auto loans rose to a fresh record high…

… it would probably not come as a surprise that according to the just released latest quarterly household debt and credit report by the NY Fed, Americans’ debt rose to a new record high in the second quarter on the back of an increase in every form of debt: from mortgage, to auto, student and credit card debt. Aggregate household debt increased for the 13th consecutive quarter, rising by $116 billion (0.9%) to a new all time high. As of September 30, 2017, total household indebtedness was $12.96 trillion, an increase of $605 billion from a year ago and equivalent to 66% of US GDP, versus a high of around 87% in early 2009. After years of deleveraging in the wake of the 2007-09 recession, household debt has risen more than 16.2% since the trough hit in the spring of 2013.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2017.

California Residents On Edge After A Swarm Of 10 Earthquakes Hits Near The San Andreas Fault

Is the San Andreas Fault starting to wake up? On Monday, a ‘swarm’ of 10 significant earthquakes struck Monterey County, California. The largest was a magnitude 4.6 earthquake that could be felt all the way over in San Francisco. Of course this comes at a time when other portions of ‘the Ring of Fire’ are starting to awaken as well. For example, just yesterday I wrote about the alarming eruption of Mt. Popocatepetl that just took place down in Mexico. For decades the west coast of North America has been relatively stable compared to the rest of the Ring of Fire, but now that is changing.
So should those living along the west coast be on alert? Without a doubt, the shaking that happened on Monday definitely got a lot of attention…
A 4.6-magnitude earthquake rattled Monterey County on Monday and was felt more than 90 miles away in San Francisco, officials said.
The quake hit at 11:31 a.m. about 13 miles northeast of Gonzales, near Salinas, and was followed by nine smaller aftershocks, with the largest measuring magnitude 2.8, said Annemarie Baltay, a seismologist with the U. S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.
Some experts are trying to assure us that we have nothing to be concerned about, but others are claiming that an earthquake swarm such as this ‘dramatically increases the likelihood of a major quake in California’. And not too long ago, the director of the Southern California Earthquake Center did admit the following…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on November 14th, 2017.

Gold Bounces Off Key Technical Support On Massive Volume

The last 48 hours has been quite a chaotic one in precious metals markets with massive volumes of ‘paper’ gold flushed in and out of the futures markets. This morning – shortly after the US open failed to spark a panic-bid in stocks – gold futures bounced off their 200-day moving average on huge volume (around $4.5 billion notional) breaking above the 100DMA…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2017.

Debt, Taxes and Politics: An Updated Perspective on Federal Tax History

With the Republican tax bill looming, we’ve updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.
Federal debt is defined as “the gross outstanding debt issued by the United States Department of Treasury since 1790” according to It does not include state and local debt, agency debt, nor entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security. It does include debt held by the public, debt held in government accounts, and by the Federal Reserve Board. Current federal debt per person is $62,814.
The first chart is a snapshot of federal debt with government forecasts through 2022 with an overlay of tax brackets since the onset of annual federal taxation in 1913.
As the chart clearly illustrates, the tax cuts in the early 1980s coincided with the beginning of an acceleration in real federal debt from a relatively consistent level over the previous three decades.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/14/2017.

White House Considering Mohamed El-Erian For Fed Vice Chair

In what will come as a big surprise to many Fed watchers, moments ago the WSJ reported that among other candidates, Mohamed El-Erian, former deputy director of the IMF, former head of the Harvard Management Company, Bill Gross’ former partner at Pimco until the duo’s infamous falling out, and one of the few people who – together with John Taylor – actually deserve the nomination, is being considered for the Fed Vice Chairman role. DJ also added that Kansas banking regulator Michelle Bowman is also being considered. From the WSJ:
The White House is considering economist Mohamed El-Erian as one of several candidates to potentially serve as the Federal Reserve’s vice chairman, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The process of selecting the Fed’s No. 2 official began this month after President Donald Trump nominated Fed governor Jerome Powell to succeed Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen when her term expires next February.
The WSJ adds that there is a broad range of candidates under consideration for post, and that the White House will focus on monetary policy experience for post.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2017.

Precious Metals: Patience Is Golden

Without growth in Western gold ETF holdings, the ‘decent but not spectacular’ demand from China and India is not strong enough to move the gold price higher. Please click here now. The SPDR (GLD-nyse) fund gold holdings currently sit at about 843 tonnes. There has been very little change in the total tonnage for several months. That’s neutral for the gold price. Governments don’t like their citizens to own much gold. Restrictions they impose (like India’s import duty as a recent example) dampen demand enough so that the price rises very slowly most of the time. Economic growth in China and India are increasing demand (the love trade) and mine supply is contracting, but the process is essentially ‘Chindian water torture’ for investors who want to see the price skyrocket like it did in the late 1970s. Investors that want ‘big action’ in the gold price need to wait patiently for the US business cycle to peak. For the price of gold to really sizzle, the business cycle needs to have aninflationary peak. That hasn’t happened since the 1970s. Many gold price analysts have used overlap charts that suggest the gold market now is akin to the 1976-1978 period. I look at fundamentals first, and charts second. From an inflationary standpoint, the US economy looks more akin to the late 1960s than the late 1970s. The winds of inflation are beginning to blow, but they won’t become a hurricane for some time. Having said that, I’ve noted that the St. Louis Fed has calculated that the QE program would have sent the US inflation rate above 30% if money velocity had been at normal levels.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 14 November 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – The Wild Life

“You may be sure that no sordid compromises nor carrying of waters on both shoulders will see you through. Those who have the faith had better keep in the state of grace, and those who have neither had better find out what they mean, for in the coming age there will be only one way to stop your trembling knees, and that will be to get down on them and pray. The most important problem in the world today is your soul, for that is what the struggle is about.”
F. J. Sheen
“He prompts you what to say, and then listens to you, and praises you, and encourages you. He bids you mount aloft. He shows you how to become as gods. Then he laughs and jokes with you, and gets intimate with you; he takes your hand, and gets his fingers between yours, and grasps them, and then you are his.”
J. H. Newman, The Times of Antichrist
Stocks have been showing an interesting pattern, of rolling over and falling in the morning, and then rising again in the afternoon, led by purchasing of the SP futures it appears.
And gold and silver and the VIX and all other havens and alarms of risk and being tightly capped and suppressed, as is also visible on the charts.
We will see what the Consumer Price Inflation data has to say about things tomorrow.
Duc l’Orange will be back, and he promised even more fabulous news of his achievements.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 14 NOVEMBER 2017.

The Tax Trade Is Getting Crowded

Congress is deciding your portfolio’s future right now – so you might want to pay attention.
If investment success were an algebra equation, one variable would be the amount of after-tax income you can save.
Another variable would be the tax rate of your capital gains and how much of your losses you can deduct.
And yet another variable would be the irrational decisions you make to squeeze your portfolio through the various tax traps.
All that would apply even if Congress just simplified the tax code without changing the amount of money the government takes from us.
The current House and Senate proposals reduce overall tax revenue, but that doesn’t mean they will reduce it for you. Whether you’ll save anything depends on who you are and how you earn your income.
That, in turn, is already affecting financial markets. You’d best be on the right side of it.

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on NOVEMBER 14, 2017.

It’s A ‘Turkey’ Market

With Thanksgiving week rapidly approaching, I thought it was an apropos time to discuss what I am now calling a ‘Turkey’ market.
What’s a ‘Turkey’ market? Nassim Taleb summed it up well in his 2007 book ‘The Black Swan.’
‘Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say.
On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.’
Such is the market we live in currently.
In a market that is excessively bullish and overly complacent, investors are ‘willfully blind’ to the relevant ‘risks’ of excessive equity exposure. The level of bullishness, by many measures, is extremely optimistic, as this chart from Tiho Krkan (@Tihobrkan) shows.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2017.

A Prudent Man (Person)

Prudence: noun
1. The ability to govern and discipline oneself by the use of reason
2. Sagacity or shrewdness in the management of affairs
3. Skill and good judgment in the use of resources
4. Caution or circumspection as to danger or risk
Synonyms: alertness, care, carefulness, cautiousness, chariness, circumspection, gingerliness, guardedness, heedfulness, caution, wariness
Origin and etymology: Middle English, from the Anglo-French, from Latin prudential, alteration of providential. More at providence.
Providence: noun
1. Divine guidance or care
2. The quality or state of being provident
Provident: adjective
1. Making provision for the future
2. Frugal, saving
Plastic bears abound today. There are well-known investors and fund houses that will frequently raise their concerns about bubbles in various markets in research notes, or when they are on TV, but then hold large amounts of the asset class they claim to hate. Very few are actually short the market or in cash.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on November 13, 2017.

Ruble, Real Tumble As Oil Slumps On Weaker IEA Outlook

WTI Crude is tumbling this morning, breaking down below $56 following a monthly report Tuesday from the International Energy Agency that said 2017 price gains along with milder-than-normal winter weather are slowing demand growth. This drop is weighing on oil-producers with the Ruble and Real dropping most…
The IEA reduced its demand estimate for next year by 200,000 barrels a day to 98.9 million a day, according to projections in its report. Forecasts for demand growth next year also fell by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million a day.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2017.

Comex Gold Sees ‘Another Large Sell’ as Bullish Silver Betting Grows to 7-Week High

COMEX gold contracts recovered a $5 drop against a weakening US Dollar in London lunchtime trade Tuesday, rising back to last week’s finish at $1275 after what analysts called another “large sell” order on the futures market.
Commodities retreated and bond prices edged higher as world stock markets fell again.
Germany’s Dax dropped for the fourth session running after the 19-nation Eurozone released a raft of stronger economic data, led by 2.5% annual GDP growth across the region for the third quarter of the year.
“Speculative financial investors stopped withdrawing from gold and built up net long positions again in the week to 7 November,” says German financial group Commerzbank in a commodities note today, looking at the latest Comex gold derivatives data from US regulator the CFTC.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/14/2017.

Sentiment Synopsis

The Commitments of Traders (COT) reports are nothing other than sentiment indicators, but as far as sentiment indicators go they are among the most useful. In fact, for some markets, including gold, silver, copper and the major currencies, the COT reports are by far the best indicators of sentiment. This is because they reflect how the broad category known as speculators is betting. Sentiment surveys, on the other hand, usually focus on a relatively small sample and are, by definition, based on what people say rather than on what they are doing with their money. That’s why for some markets, including the ones mentioned above, I put far more emphasis on the COT data than on sentiment surveys.
In this post I’m going to summarise the COT situations for four markets with the help of charts from an excellent resource called ‘Gold Charts ‘R’ Us’. I’ll be zooming in on the net positions of speculators in the futures markets, although useful information can also be gleaned from gross positions and the open interest.
Note that what I refer to as the total speculative net position takes into account the net positions of large speculators (non-commercials) and small traders (the ‘non-reportables’) and is the inverse of the commercial net position. The blue bars in the middle sections of the charts that follow indicate the commercial net position, so the inverse of each of these bars is considered to be the total speculative net position.
Let’s begin with the market that most professional traders and investors either love or hate: gold.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 14 November 2017.

Bank Of America: “This Is A Clear Sign Of Irrational Exuberance”

The latest monthly Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America confirmed what recent market actions have already demonstrated, namely that, as BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett explained, there is a “big market conviction in Goldilocks leading to capitulation into risk assets” while at the same time sending Fund managers’ cash levels to a 4-year low, and pushing “risk-taking” to a new all-time high, surpassing both the dot com and the 2007 bubbles.
BofA’s takeaways from the survey, which polled a total of 206 panelists with $610 billion in AUM, will not come as a surprise to those who have been following this survey in recent months, and which reaffirms that while investors intimately realize how bubbly assets have become, they have no choice but to buy them.
The latest survey highlights:
It’s still all about FAANG froth: the biggest market conviction is in Goldilocks (+ price action in FAANG/BAT, Bitcoin) resulting in bull capitulation; A stunning chart shows that risk-taking among Fund Managers hit an all time high in the lastest period…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 14, 2017.

Living in the Shadow of a Volcano: The US National Debt in Perspective

Every once in a while, a mainstream news outlet publishes a piece about the national debt. Here and there, politicians trot out the surging debt as a talking point to make some political hay. Now and then, an economist will wave the red flag. But by-and-large, the national debt just kind of looms over us.
We’ve gotten used to the shadow it casts, and we generally don’t give it much thought. It’s kind of like people living at the foot of a volcano. They know it’s there. It might cause some low-level anxiety. But they really don’t pay much attention to it – until it erupts.
So, just how bad is the national debt? We all know it’s pretty bad. But would you believe it’s actually worse than you probably think?
The headline number is operating debt. It currently stands at $20.5 trillion. It spiked $608 billion in just eight short weeks after Pres. Trump signed a bill raising the debt ceiling limit for the next three months in September. And Trump wants to do away with the debt ceiling altogether.
The national debt is currently over 105% of total GDP. That’s the highest level in history except for a two-year spike at the end of World War II.

This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 14, 2017.