NOV 13/GOLD UP $4.85 AND SILVER RISES 16 CENTS/CHAOS IN ENGLAND AS THERESA MAY COULD BE OUSTED AS LEADER/TENSIONS AGAIN ESCALATE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST/GE CRASHES TODAY/

GOLD: $1278.85 UP $4.85
Silver: $17.05 UP 16 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1278.50
silver: $17.05
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1288.37 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1276.60
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $11.77
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1288.37
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1276.60
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$11.77
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1278.40
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1278.10
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1277.95
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1277.30
For comex gold:
NOVEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 20000 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 991 FOR 99,100 OZ (3.082TONNES)
For silver:
NOVEMBER
1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
5,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 872 for 4,360,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Bitcoin: BID $6729 OFFER /$6764 DOWN $308.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN CLOSING; BID $6498 OFFER: $6523 // UP $78.00

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 13, 2017.

Why America’s Retail Apocalypse Could Accelerate Even More In 2018

Is the retail apocalypse in the United States about to go to a whole new level? That is a frightening thing to consider, because the truth is that things are already quite bad. We have already shattered the all-time record for store closings in a single year and we still have the rest of November and December to go. Unfortunately, it truly does appear that things will get even worse in 2018, because a tremendous amount of high-yield retail debt is coming due next year. In fact, Bloomberg is reporting that the amount of high-yield retail debt that will mature next year is approximately 19 times larger than the amount that matured this year…
Just $100 million of high-yield retail borrowings were set to mature this year, but that will increase to $1.9 billion in 2018, according to Fitch Ratings Inc. And from 2019 to 2025, it will balloon to an annual average of almost $5 billion. The amount of retail debt considered risky is also rising. Over the past year, high-yield bonds outstanding gained 20 percent, to $35 billion, and the industry’s leveraged loans are up 15 percent, to $152 billion, according to Bloomberg data.
Even worse, this will hit as a record $1 trillion in high-yield debt for all industries comes due over the next five years, according to Moody’s.
Can you say ‘debt bomb’?

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on November 13th, 2017.

“I Believe The Women” – Mitch McConnell Calls For Moore To “Step Aside”

Following Roy Moore’s vehement denial of teen sex abuse allegations on Friday, the weekend saw political furore rising and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell may have just sealed the Bannon-backed candidate’s future.
“It never happened… If you abuse a 14-year-old you shouldn’t be a Senate candidate. I agree with that,” Moore said. “But I did not do that.”
But, as The Hill reports, Mitch McConnel on Monday called for GOP Senate candidate Roy Moore to “step aside,” according to the Associated Press…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 13, 2017.

Bill Blain: “Why We Should Be Very Nervous About Corporate Bonds”

Why we should be very nervous about corporate bonds
‘Before the fiddlers have fled, before they ask us to pay for the bill and while we still have the chance….’
This might be week the proverbial chickens have more need than ever of somewhere to recover from the last 9 years of frothy market madness. Take a look at the signs and signals – the Nikkei taking a 1000 point spanking last week, the US stock market looking wobbly on the lack of any real prospect of tax reform (my stock chartists have picked though the graphs, and see sell signals everywhere), articles saying Europe is poised on the edge of an economic boom-time (which, by the laws of financial common sense means its about the tumble back into recession…)
And then there is the UK – where sterling is in flight on rumours of a no confidence motion in Theresa May.. FFS.. Does the fact a confidence vote might be on the cards actually mean there are still people who have any confidence in her? I though we all understood how this plays out? I though we all agreed she is absolutely the worst possible leader of the conservatives and worst ever choice for prime minster, with the notable exception of any other elected conservative MPs?
Very interesting research note from a US investment banks says there is a 40% likelihood of a Labour Corbyn government by 2022. The risks of an election are elevated by the party spilt/civil war on Brexit, but also on May fundamentally misreading the leftwards shift in UK electoral attitudes – the Tories need a socially liberal leader to win an election. (I’ve got the phone number of the other Milliband brother if they are interested.)

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 13, 2017.

Roy Moore Responds To Mitch McConnell

Just minutes after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell sided with “the women,” and called for Alabama Senate candidate to “step aside,” the outspoken former judge has responded…
The person who should step aside is @SenateMajLdr Mitch McConnell. He has failed conservatives and must be replaced. #DrainTheSwamp
— Judge Roy Moore (@MooreSenate) November 13, 2017

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 13, 2017.

UBS Makes A Striking Discovery: Ex-Energy, US GDP Growth Is The Slowest Since 2010

Last week, UBS released its Global Economic Outlook forecast for 2018-2019, which coming in at over 220 pages and with more than 270 charts, is rather “difficult to summarize” as UBS’ chief economist Arend Kapteyn snarkily notes. Still, as Kapteyn helpfully summarizes, the 3 charts below capture some of the main themes from the report, the first of which is a doozy and crushes the Trump “economic recovery” narrative .
Message 1: The 2017 global growth acceleration was largely (70%) a commodity bounce. This applies even to the US which was 20% of the global growth improvement but, as the 1st chart below shows, it was entirely energy investment. Once you strip that out ‘underlying’ growth is only 1% or so (ex inventories) – the slowest since 2010 – and a significant amount of rotation now needs to take place from energy to non-energy investment just to sustain the current growth pace. The surveys suggest that is possible but the surveys have also consistently overstated growth so far. As Kapteyn adds, due to “skepticism about that rotation is why we are about 20bp below consensus for US growth next year.” It also means that contrary to conventional wisdom, the US consumer has not only not turned the corner, but continues to retrench and with the personal savings rate plunging to 10 years lows, there is little hope that personal consumption expenditures will be a significant driver of US growth for the foreseeable future.
More details from UBS:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 13, 2017.

Are Electric Cars As Clean As They Seem?

Tesla’s unveiling of its mass market Model 3 sparked a global interest in making electric vehicles the next big thing in automobile manufacturing. But can the category’s green agenda keep up with its metal and recycling needs?
The concept of bunking the traditional engine for a non-gas guzzling counterpart has been here for decades, but creating an ecosystem for battery charging and bringing vehicle costs down was a challenge for decades.
The sheer force of Elon Musk’s vision is building the infrastructure needed to sustain millions of electric cars in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Most major manufacturers have joined the enthusiasm to ditch old-school engines to construct the international fleet of tomorrow.
But this new step doesn’t solve all of the world’s environmental pollution issues related to transportation. The extraction of rare earth minerals, the disposal of lithium-ion batteries, and the sourcing of the energy that powers charging stations are all issues that plague the future of the green argument for electric vehicles.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 13, 2017.

Key Events In The Coming Week: Taxes, Inflation, Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda And Brexit

This week’s economic calendar features several key data releases and Fedspeak. The main data release in US include: CPI inflation, retail sales, industrial production, housing data and monthly budget statement. We also get the latest GDP and CPI reading across the Euro Area; the employment report in the UK and AU, Japan GDP, China IP, retail sales and FAI. In Emerging markets, there are monetary policy meetings in Indonesia, Chile, Egypt and Hong Kong.
Market participants will also want to pay close attention to tax reform progress in Washington. The House Ways and Means Committee had voted along party lines (24-16) to deliver its bill to the full House. The Senate Finance Committee’s proposal was also revealed last week and is slated for markup this week. Both versions are essentially opening gambits by the two chambers and the hard work begins when the two bills are ‘reconciled’. As a reminder, the Senate version is likely to be closer to the final version. In our view, there is a decent chance that some version of tax reform can be achieved, but this is likely to be a Q1 event and there are numerous potential stumbling blocks along the way.
With respect to the data, October inflation and retail sales reports are the main focus. Tuesday, DB expects headline PPI (+0.1% forecast vs. +0.4% previously) to moderate following a spike in gasoline prices last month due to hurricane-related supply disruptions. However, core PPI inflation (+0.2% vs. +0.1%) should firm. Analyst will focus on the healthcare services component of the PPI, as this is an input into the corresponding series in the core PCE deflator – the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. Recall that healthcare has the largest weighting in the core PCE.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 13, 2017.

Philly Fed President Unconvincing As He “Lightly” Pencils In December Hike

Speaking in at a conference in Tokyo, the head of the Philly Fed, Patrick Harker said that he has penciled in a further rate hike by the Fed at its December meeting on 12-13 December 2017. However, his use of the word ‘lightly’ suggested that there may be a degree of wavering on his part. According to Reuters.
A Federal Reserve official said on Monday he expects to back an interest rate hike next month despite caution over low-inflation, as U. S. central bank policy needs to be positioned to deal with future economic shocks.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he has ‘lightly penciled in’ a December rate hike. However, he flagged he had slightly less conviction about the policy decision than he had last month as he ‘continues to elicit caution’ about weak inflation and also about the way in which it is measured. Harker said he expects the Fed to raise rates three times next year as long as inflation remains on track, and the projected tightening could take policy to what he would describe as a neutral stance. Harker, a centrist voter on the Fed’s monetary policy committee this year under an internal rotation, said the Fed must continue normalizing policy as the economy is ‘more or less at full strength’ and there remains ‘very little slack’ in the labor market. ‘Removing accommodation is the right next step for a few reasons,’ he said in prepared remarks to a Global Interdependence Center conference in Tokyo…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 13, 2017.

Optimistic Signs in Indian Gold Market Despite Q3 Demand Drop

If you saw the headlines last week, you know overall global gold demand fell steeply in the third quarter of this year. But as we reported, there was a lot of good news for gold buried beneath the gloomy headlines.
Slumping Q3 gold demand in India was a big driver in the overall global decline, but even there, we see some signs of optimism. Indian gold-buying dropped off primarily due to new taxes and regulations imposed by the Indian government over the summer. There are already signs the market is adjusting
On July 1, the Indian government replaced a labyrinth of taxes with a nationwide 3% Goods & Services Tax (GST). New anti-money laundering legislation also impacted the jewelry market.
After three consecutive quarters of growth, gold demand in India fell 24% year-on-year in Q3 to 146 tonnes compared with 192.8 tonnes in Q3 2016. The drop in jewelry demand was most significant, likely a byproduct of the new taxes and regulations. Jewelry demand fell by 25% to 115 tons in the third quarter compared to 152.7 tons in the previous year.

This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 13, 2017.

SWOT Analysis: Turkish Demand for Gold Near a Four-Year High

Strengths
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, 0.41 percent. CenterraGold is set to buy Aurico Metals for $1.80 per cash share for a 38-percent purchase price premium on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Centerra currently holds more than $350 million in cash and has now secured a $125 million acquisition facility, according to Bloomberg. Gold prices rose after Saudi Arabia said a recent attempted missile strike at Riyadh’s airport could be an act of war by Iran. Additionally, Turkish investors are continuing to buy gold with demand expected to reach the highest since 2013. According to Google Trends, global searches for ‘buy bitcoin’ have overtaken ‘buy gold’ demonstrating a surge in popularity of the cryptocurrency. However, the BullionVault Gold Investor Index edged slightly higher to 54.6, demonstrating the number of buyers is higher than sellers. Weaknesses
The worst performing precious metal for the week was platinum, down 0.82 percent. Due to platinum’s primary use in internal combustion engines, the metal could be among the biggest losers from electrical vehicle growth, reports Mining Review. The World Gold Council said it’s a tough quarter for gold as prices weakened in September and October. Global gold demand fell 9 percent in the third quarter as investor buying slowed and regulations in India tightened, reports Eddie van der Walt.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 13 November 2017.

One Trader Warns “To Ignore All Around You Is Playing With Fire”

Something changed in the last week or so. Several markets that had hitherto been unstoppable examples of central bank recklessness dominating rational thinking suddenly ‘stopped’. Of course this is seen by many asset-gatherers and commission-takers as ‘a pause that refreshes’ but what if it’s not? As former fund manager Richard Breslow warns, “you’d better believe things can change on a dime,” and we suspect they just did…
I freely admit that I have a lower threshold for finding things funny at 3 AM than later in the day. But after laughing out loud over this line in a story, I actually thought it may contain some real wisdom. Especially, because there are so many alternate explanations of why various asset prices trade where and in the fashion they do.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 13, 2017.

P2P Loans are ‘Predatory,’ Have Delinquency Characteristics of pre-2007 Subprime Mortgages, Could Impact Financial Stability: Cleveland Fed

They get debt slaves deeper into high-cost debts they can’t handle.
Peer-to-peer lending commenced in the US a decade ago when investors – now mostly hedge funds, banks, insurers, etc. – could lend directly to consumers via online platforms. LendingClub, the dominant player, went public in December 2014. Shares shot up to nearly $30 over the first few days, but are currently at $4.20, after a 23% plunge last Wednesday when it slashed guidance, and after a 2.4% dive this morning.
Now the Cleveland Fed came out with an analysis that focused on the consumer end of the business, called the loans ‘predatory,’ compared them to pre-Financial-Crisis subprime mortgages because they’re now showing very similar delinquency characteristics, and fretted what these P2P loans, given their double-digit growth rates, could mean for financial stability:
Based on our findings, one can argue that P2P loans resemble predatory loans in terms of the segment of the consumer market they serve and their effect on individual borrowers’ financial stability. The 2007 financial crisis illustrated the importance of consumer finance and the stability of consumer balance sheets.

This post was published at Wolf Street on Nov 13, 2017.

Here’s The Latest On The GOP Tax Bill As The Senate Starts Debate

Much like the Obamacare repeal and replace effort earlier this year, the past couple of weeks have been an invariable roller coaster ride for GOP representatives as Congressional leaders have tried to form some level of consensus within a fractured party with competing interests. This week will undoubtedly be no different.
In light of that, we’ve taken a look at some of the key differences between the Senate and House tax bills as they currently stand. As of now the biggest difference is the treatment of the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction. While the Senate has called for a full repeal of the SALT deduction, House members have drawn a hard line, even though almost all political “hard lines” become flexible under the right circumstances, demanding at least $10,000 worth of property tax deductions be allowed. Per Bloomberg:
The House and Senate are on a collision course over one of the most prized individual breaks in the tax code.
The Senate Finance Committee will start debating late Monday afternoon the 247-page tax proposal released last week by Chairman Orrin Hatch. As of now, the ‘conceptual’ mark has some significant differences with the tax bill the House Ways and Means Committee approved last week — chief among them the Senate’s call for repealing the state and local tax deduction entirely.
Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady took a hard-line approach during a ‘Fox News Sunday’ interview, saying the House won’t accept a tax bill that eliminates the deduction entirely. The House bill retains the deduction for property taxes up to $10,000.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 13, 2017.

Broke And Desperate, Part 1: Chicago Pawns A Crown Jewel

A new bond issue from Chicago is rated AAA. That’s great because it means the city’s finances are on the mend, right?
Nope, just the opposite. Here’s the story:
Bondholders fret as alchemy turns Chicago’s junk to gold
(Bloomberg) – Chicago’s public pension debt is $36 billion and growing, it’s facing $550 million in budget deficits over the next three years and this summer the state had to bail out a school system that was flirting with insolvency.
Yet next month, the nation’s third-largest city – whose bonds were downgraded to junk by Moody’s Investors Service two years ago – will start selling as much as $3 billion of debt that another rating company considers as safe as U. S. Treasuries.
That’s because Chicago is selling off its right to receive sales-tax revenue from Illinois to a separate public corporation, which will issue new bonds backed by those funds, a structure called securitization. Because bondholders will be insulated from the city’s finances and have a legal claim to the sales-tax money, Fitch Ratings deems the bonds AAA.

This post was published at DollarCollapse on NOVEMBER 13, 2017.

Two-Thirds Of The Top Primary Silver Miners Suffered Production Declines In 2017

It has been a rough year for many primary silver miners as two-thirds have suffered declines in production. Also, many high ranking silver producing countries are also experiencing a pronounced reduction in their domestic silver mine supply. According to the data put out by World Metal Statistics, Chile’s silver production is down 20% in the first eight months of the year, while Australia is down 19%, Mexico declined 2% and Peru by 1%.
The Silver Institute will be releasing their 2017 Silver Interim Report shortly which will provide an update on current silver production and forecasts for the remainder of the year. However, I believe global silver production will take a hit this year due to several factors including, falling ore grades, mine closures, and strikes at various projects.
For example, Tahoe Resources was forced to shut down its Guatemalan Escobal Mine in July due to a temporary suspension of its operating license by the country’s Supreme Court. However, even after the Guatemalan Supreme Court reinstated Tahoe Resources Escobal Mine’s license in early September, an ongoing road blockade has hampered the ability of the project to continue mining. Regardless, Tahoe’s silver production declined a stunning 6.7 million oz Q1-Q3 2017 versus the same period last year.

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on NOVEMBER 13, 2017.

Silver Sign’s Confirmation And More

Briefly: In our opinion, full (150% of the regular full position) speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment of publishing this alert.
In our previous free analysis we discussed the silver market viewed from the non-USD perspective and we commented on the possibility of seeing a more visible corrective downswing in the USD after it moved closer to the 96 level. In today’s essay, we would like to further elaborate on the white metal – not only because we saw another sign in the non-USD silver price, but also because we would like to reveal a technique that can tell us when the next reversal in silver is likely to take place.

This post was published at SilverSeek on Monday, November 13th.

“This Doesn’t End Well”: SocGen Explains Why US Balance Sheets Are Far Worse Than They Appear

Reverting to one of his favorite topics – namely how the application of a statistical average of a sharply bimodal sample tends to muddle the resulting signal, something Ray Dalio expounded on as recently as last month– on Monday morning, SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne explains not only why the true story of US corporate balance sheets is far worse than the average data makes it appears, but also why “US balance sheet performance is increasingly polarized”.
As the SocGen strategist writes, “we have been highlighting for some time now the risks associated with highly leveraged US companies, particularly among the smaller capitalisation names. Our message has been clear; US corporate leverage is abnormally high for this stage in the cycle and a handful of cash-rich mega caps are masking significant problems elsewhere.”
To be sure, the market has noticed this growing balance sheet chasm, and as a result aversion to highly leveraged companies has become increasingly visible:
“over the last few weeks the beta of bad balance to good balance sheet companies has been negative. Or to put it more simply, one group has been going up whilst the other has been going down. For those still holding the weak companies, the relative performance consequence is painful, leading to further selling and further polarisation.”
To be fair, Lapthorne picks up on a point that was brought up by the IMF back in April, when it not only warned that over 20% of US corporations are at risk of default should rates rise even modestly, but that the generous use of an average distribution when instead median is more appropriate, is masking some substantial problems below the surface, including the risks to US corporate from rising interest costs and possibly a reduction in
interest cost tax deductibility.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 13, 2017.

Why Populism Isn’t Going Away

The vote for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump has baffled the main stream and the establishment. Most market participants and observers didn’t believe ex ante that they were possible, and as a result were completely surprised when the unexpected happened. Ever since the term populism has become socio-politically relevant in modern-day public discourse. Google Trends illustrates that there was a veritable explosion in search queries for the term ‘populism’ last year:
***
But, populism – regardless of its political flavor – merely represents a symptom. The generally surprising results were consequences of the economical erosion of the past years Although there are idiosyncrasies in every country that foster the rise of populist movements, the ailing foundation of the economy provides the fertile soil and is the major driver of people’s dissatisfaction and the associated voting decisions. To assert that populism is the reason for this process of political change is in our opinion far too simplistic. An analysis of stating that economic erosion is responsible for the rise in populism is supported by by a McKinsey study, which examines the trend in real household incomes in 25 industrialized nations.1 McKinsey arrived at the striking conclusion that real incomes of 65 to 70 percent of households in developed countries either stagnated or even declined between 2005 and 2014. The following chart illustrates the trend in household incomes in selected countries. (The y axis shows the percentage of households with stnating or declining income between 2005 and 2014):
***
The momentousness of this study becomes obvious when considering that the object under review are 25 industrialized countries with a population of more than 800 million people, generating 50 percent of global GDP.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on November 13, 2017.