Summing Up 2017 In Two Record-Breaking Charts

What can we say about 2017 that hasn’t been said already, as it continues to smash records?
Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, ‘2017 will likely be remembered for two things: a persistent bullish trend and historically low volatility.’ In fact, here are two more records that prove that point.
The Nasdaq has never made more all-time highs than the 63 it has made (so far) this calendar year, topping the previous record of 62 set in 1980.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2017.

Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom

Stewart Dougherty returns with unique insight into the powerful Deep State forces behind the relentless manipulation of gold and silver. He also presents a searing look at Jim Rickards’ deceptive role as the Deep State’s grifter.
‘There are crooks everywhere you look now. The situation is desperate.’ Final blog entry by Daphne Caruana Galizia, 53, renowned Maltese investigative reporter who specialized in exposing state corruption; posted on 16 October 2017, one day before she and her vehicle were blown to bits by a car bomb in Bidnija, Malta
In 2011, gold pulled a ‘Bitcoin’ before anyone even knew what Bitcoin was: its price went vertical to $1,900 per ounce. Inflation-adjusted, the price was still far below its 1980 all-time high, and from all indications, it was going to keep heading north toward its free market print.
In surging, gold blurted out the Deep State Central Planners’ strategy for dealing with the Great Financial Crisis: the hyperinflation of bond, equities and real estate prices via the hyperinflation of both official and totally clandestine, off-the-books money supply, in order to create the hyperinflation of tax revenues desperately required by the government to forestall its fiscal collapse. Gold’s exposure of the Deep State Central Planners’ secret strategy was absolutely unacceptable to them, and had to be stopped.

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on November 7, 2017.

Asian Metals Market Update: November-7-2017

Higher crude oil prices are supporting gold and silver. Gold and silver have always flourished in an inflationary environment. Focus will shift to inflation. If crude oil prices continue to rise then one should use sharp dips to invest for the short term. I see a direct correlation between gold prices and crude oil prices. Trump’s South Korea visit and China visit will be closely watched. Ways to deal with North Korean nukes will affect gold and silver prices.
Rising crude oil prices can change the balance sheet of emerging markets like India. Governments will be caught between the choice of fiscal management and inflation management. Most of the emerging markets have enough reserves to withstand an energy shock. I see emerging market currency weakness, if Nymex crude oil continues to rise to $80 and consolidates at $80. Under the current scenario crude oil looks headed for $100 in the next twelve months as long as it trades over $46. Emerging market stock markets will form a medium term top and could move into a bearish phase if crude oil prices rise and consolidate around $80. As long as crude oil prices do not break $80, emerging markets are in a safe zone.
Historically crude oil prices have always zoomed under republicans. The current rise in crude oil price is an early signal of history repeating itself.
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2017 – current price $1280.10
Bullish over $1275.50 with $1291.40 and $1296.30 as price target.
Bearish below $1270.40 with $1264.60 and $1257.30 as price target.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 7 November 2017.

Trump Says Trade With Japan Is Not Fair And Not Open – Awkward Moments Ensue

The first stage of Donald Trump’s five-nation tour of Asia began well with the President playing golf with Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, describing their relationship as ‘really extraordinary’.
This suggested progress following the awkward moment during their previous meeting in February 2017. Abe was the first foreign leader Trump met after his election victory and Trump was mocked on social media after refusing to give Abe his hand back during their 19-second handshake. Today their budding relationship was tested as Trump lashed out at Japan’s unfair trade practices and his related attempts at humour. In rhetoric that sounded familiar to his campaign speeches Trump complained that Japan has been ‘winning’ on trade, alluding to the $69 billion trade deficit in 2016.
‘We want fair and open trade. But right now, our trade with Japan is not fair and it’s not open. The US has suffered massive trade deficits with Japan for many, many years. One way that Trump is aiming to fix the trade deficit by making it easier for Japanese companies to do business in the US. However, his decision to highlight the auto industry was perhaps unfortunate. Nonetheless, Trump lamented.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2017.

“This Is The Broadest Episode Of Extreme Equity Market Overvaluation In History”

Market valuations, on these measures, presently approach or exceed the 1929 and 2000 extremes, placing U. S. equity market valuations at the most offensive levels in history.
Indeed, with median valuations on these measures now more than 2.7 times their historical norms, there is strong reason to expect a market loss on the order of -63% over the completion of the current market cycle; a decline that would not even bring valuations below their historical norms (which we’ve typically seen by the completion of nearly every market cycle outside of the 2002 low).
“…unlike the 2000 valuation extreme, which was largely focused on a subset of extremely overvalued technology stocks, the current market extreme is the broadest episode of extreme equity market overvaluation in history. The chart below shows the median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 component stocks, which set yet another record high in the week ended November 3, 2017, and now stands more than 50% above the 2000 extreme.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2017.

Turkey: A Case Study in the Borrower’s Dilemma

Editor’s Note: Before we begin, allow us to mention a short survey we’ll be sending in next week’s This Week in Geopolitics. This will provide you with an opportunity to tell us what topics you’re most interested in. We want our content to reflect not only what is happening in the world, but also the interests of our readers. Stay tuned to see how your answers will shape our upcoming material.
The motivations that underlie a country’s decision to borrow money are not always strictly economical. Take Turkey, whose ratio of gross external debt (all public and private sector debt) to GDP has increased from 39% in 2012 to 52% today. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase investment by increasing available credit to spur economic activity. This is a political goal, though one motivated by economic objectives. The problem Erdogan encountered, however, is that there was not enough domestic capital available to meet Turkey’s lending needs.
When a country chooses to borrow, it has two sets of choices. First, should it borrow domestically or from abroad? Second, should its debt be denominated in domestic or foreign currency? Each option has its own implications, but it is particularly constraining when a country borrows from abroad in a foreign currency.
When debt is borrowed in another country’s currency, the borrowing country no longer has the option to depreciate its own currency through monetary policy in order to decrease the relative value of its debt. The other risk involved in foreign currency borrowing – beyond the risk already inherent in borrowing – is that the borrower’s currency will decline in value and increase the cost of debt service.

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on NOVEMBER 6, 2017.

Ron Paul Rages: GOP Plan Increases The Most Insidious Tax

Last Thursday, congressional Republicans unveiled their tax reform legislation. On the same day, President Trump nominated current Federal Reserve Board Governor Jerome Powell to succeed Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chair.
While the tax plan dominated the headlines, the Powell appointment will have much greater long-term impact. Federal Reserve policies affect every aspect of the economy, including whether the Republican tax plan will produce long-term economic growth.
President Obama made history by appointing the first female Fed chair. President Trump is also making history: If confirmed, Powell would be the first former investment banker to serve as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell’s background suggests he will continue Janet Yellen’s Wall Street-friendly low interest rates and easy money policies.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2017.

Can Solar Survive Without Subsidies?

In an increasing number of regions in the US, solar (and wind) power can produce electricity at the same cost – or lower – than more traditional fuels, like coal or natural gas.
We call it reaching ‘grid parity’ here in the business.
The catch, however, is what happens when government subsidies are removed from the calculation.
That’s why what happened at the end of September in the UK may be a sign of things to come across the pond here in the US.
Read Solar Costs Are Dropping Much Faster Than Expected
See, the British just brought a new solar power project online without relying on subsidies. Only the market will dictate what this power plant gets paid.
And the way they did it shows where the solar industry and energy markets in the US are headed next…

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/06/2017.

NOV 6/GOLD REBOUNDS NICELY UP $11.25 TO $1280.15 BUT THE STAR OF TODAY IS SILVER UP 37 CENTS CLOSING AT $17.22 /SHANGHAI PREMIUMS TO NY PRICING IS $23.08/TROUBLE IN CHINA’S SHADOW BANKING SECTOR/…

GOLD: $1280.15 UP $11.25
Silver: $17.22 UP 37 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1282.00
silver: $17.22
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1291.77 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1269.00
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $22.77(premiums getting larger)
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1291.58
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1268.50
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$23.08 PREMIUMS GETTING HUGE)
CHINA REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING OF GOLD!!!!
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1271.60
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1271.60
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1270.90
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1271.80 ??
For comex gold:
NOVEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 27 NOTICE(S) FOR 2700 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 856 FOR 85,600 OZ (2.662TONNES)
For silver:
NOVEMBER
10 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
50,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 856 for 4,280,000 oz
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Bitcoin: $7361 bid /$7368 offer up $138.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN CLOSING;$7099 BID:7124. OFFER down $124.00
end
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1130 contracts from 206 ,068 DOWN TO 204,938 DESPITE FRIDAY’S TRADING IN WHICH SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 27 CENTS. THE CROOKS NO DOUBT ARE PULLING THEIR HAIR AS THEY ARE STILL HAVING AN AWFUL TIME TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTS. THEY TRY TO CONTINUE WITH THEIR TORMENT LIKE THE RAID ON FRIDAY. A FEW NEWBIE SPEC LONGS LEFT THE SILVER ARENA AND THUS WE HAVE A VERY TINY BANKER SHORT COVERING.
RESULT: A SMALL SIZED FALL IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE 27 CENT PRICE LOSS. OUR BANKERS COULD HARDLY COVER ANY OF THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL DESPITE THE MANIPULATED CRIMINAL BANKER RAID WHICH HAD THEIR OBJECT OF THE EXERCISE TO CAUSE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES TO FALL FROM THE SILVER TREE. AS WE HAVE WITNESSED ON COUNTLESS OCCASIONS WITH RESPECT TO SILVER, IT FAILED MISERABLY.
In ounces, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.025 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 146% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 10 NOTICE(S) FOR 50,000 OZ OF SILVER
In gold, the open interest FELL BY A LESS THAN EXPECTED 4,347 CONTRACTS WITH THE GOOD SIZED FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD ($8.65) WITH FRIDAY’S TRADING . The new OI for the gold complex rests at 529,124. NEWBIE LONGS EXITED THE ARENA TO WHICH THE BANKERS COVERED.
NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE NOVEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.
Result: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN OI WITH THE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD ($8.65). WE HAD SOME BANK SHORT COVERING AS SOME OF OUR NEWBIE LONGS GOT STOP LOSSED OUT OF THEIR CONTRACTS.
we had: 27 notice(s) filed upon for 2700 oz of gold.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD:
A tiny change in gold inventory at the GLD/ a withdrawal of .29 tonnes to pay for fees and insurance
Inventory rests tonight: 845.75 tonnes.
SLV
TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.018 MILLION OZ

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 6, 2017.

Australian Gold Exports Surge Boosted By German Demand

Gold exports from Australia surged from August to September, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Non-monetary gold exports rose 17% in the period, an increase of $217 million in seasonally adjusted terms.
Germans are buying a lot of gold from Australia through the Perth Mint, according to the Australian Financial Review.
Germans purchased gold and silver coins worth almost $487 million from the mint last financial year and the trade has boomed on the back of events such as Brexit and the global financial crisis. The 2016-17 sales represent more than 158 tons of gold and silver turned into more than 4 million commemorative and special edition coins by the mint.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 6, 2017.

Tech Stocks Accounted For 75% Of The Market’s October Return

5. But it splits along two lines. This is a sticker board of attendees at #FooCamp. Most wanted to see action against tech platforms. pic.twitter.com/sfbUek5vYV
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) November 6, 2017

For some context on the unprecedented dominance of the tech sector on the overall market, here is some perspective from BofA’s Savita Subramanian on October returns, when Tech continued to lead the other ten sectors, generating +7.8% on a total return basis. This translates into a whopping 75% of the S&P 500’s return last month!
Furthermore, with virtually every lagging hedge fund rushing to buy the tech sector, chasing such activist central banks as the SNB, the sector’s 24.5% weight in the S&P 500 is now the highest since October 2000.
That said, considering tech companies reported some of the strongest 3Q earnings results, the best revision trends, and rank at the top of BofA’s quant model, is there anything to be concerned about?

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2017.

Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown Sinks Property Prices

Other sectors are weak too, but one sector is hot.
Commercial real estate prices soared relentlessly for years after the Financial Crisis, to such a degree that the Fed has been publicly fretting about them. Why? Because US financial institutions hold nearly $4 trillion of commercial real estate loans. But the boom in most CRE sectors is over.
The Green Street Property Price Index – which measures values across five major property sectors – had soared 107% from May 2009 to the plateau that began late last year, and 27% from the peak of the totally crazy prior bubble that ended with such spectacular fireworks. But it has now turned around, dragged down by a plunge in prices for retail space.
The CPPI by Green Street Advisors dropped 1.1% in October from September. In terms of points, the 1.4-point decline was the largest monthly decline since March 2009. The index is now below where it had been in June 2016:

This post was published at Wolf Street on Nov 6, 2017.

Asian Metals Market Update: November-6-2017

Focus will be on geopolitical risk after Trump’s Asia trip. Saudi Arabia’s clamp down on detractors by labelling them as corrupt will weigh on the markets. Economically there is nothing as most of the good news has been factored in by the markets. All the focus is on crypto currencies and bitcoins. If gold and silver fall this week, then everyone will be looking for signs of a medium term bottom. Short term investors are cautious about investing in gold.
I am more concerned of the rise in industrial metals.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 6 November 2017.

Deutsche Bank Enters the Economic Fringe, Considers ‘End of Fiat Money’

Fiat currencies have had nearly a 46 year run of success. But with cryptocurrencies ‘all the rage,’ what Deutsche Bank Strategists Jim Reid and Craig Nicol call ‘inherently unstable’ fiat currency system without any commodity backing might be coming to an end, they assert.
The end of a demographic trend will usher in another inflationary period, Deutsche Bank asserts The idea of tying the supply of money to a commodity such as gold was that it kept government spending in check because money was in limited supply.
The US abandoned the gold standard in 1971, anchoring the currency’s value, not to a commodity but rather the faith in a government. This was followed by a sharp rise in inflation resulting in mortgage rates rising to near 20% annually by 1981. The resulting debasement of currency value and loss of buying power might have ended the fiat monetary system if it were not for the deflationary period that came along in the 1980s.
This gentle deflationary trend is about to come to an end, Reid and Nicol think.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/06/2017.

THINGS COULDN’T BE BETTER – RIGHT?

Donald Trump tells me our best days are ahead. Once his tax cut plan is passed, the future will be so bright I’ll have to wear shades.
Sometimes a single chart reveals the truth being obscured by the Deep State propaganda machine, working overtime selling their economic recovery narrative. The economy most certainly is booming for Wall Streeters and D. C. parasites sucking on the teet of Federal government largess. But for the average working deplorable, this supposed recovery has passed them by.
The cognitive dissonance is strong, as average Americans want to believe what their ‘leaders’ are telling them to believe, but their personal financial situation contradicts the narrative. Even using the highly manipulated data peddled by the BLS, any critical thinking individual can see through the lies, misinformation and bullshit.

This post was published at The Burning Platform on Nov 6, 2017.

Second Saudi Prince Confirmed Killed During Crackdown

Following the death of Prince Mansour bin-Muqrin in a helicopter crash near the Yemen border yesterday, the Saudi Royal Court has confirmed the death of Prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd – killed during a firefight as authorities attempted to arrest him.
The death has been confirmed by the Saudi royal court.
The Duran and Al-Masdar News both report that the prince died when his security contingent got into a firefight with regime gunmen attempting to make an arrest.
Prince Aziz (44) who was the youngest son of King Fahad.
The Duran’s Adam Garrie points out that Prince Abdul Aziz was deeply involved in Saudi Oger Ltd, a company which until it ceased operations in the summer of this year, was owned by the Hariri family. Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri was punitively in charge of the company until it ceased operations.
Prince Abdul Aziz’s strange and sudden death which is said to have occurred during an attempted arrest, sheds light on the theory that the clearly forced resignation of former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri had more to do with internal Saudi affairs than the Saudi attempt to bring instability to Lebanon.
The Saudi Royal family has now lost two princes in 24 hours.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2017.

International Trade Under the Soviets: A Comedy of Errors

One of Ludwig von Mises’ great contributions to modern thought was his proof of the inability of economic calculation under socialism. This core truth should be recalled as many leftists seek to restore communism’s cachet. Perhaps nothing more vividly illustrates the mental paralysis that socialism begets than the foreign trade practices of East Bloc regimes.
In 1986, a Czech border guard stopped a Polish family leaving Czechoslovakia and ordered a Polish kid to take off his new Czech shoes “because taking children’s shoes out of the country is prohibited.” The Polish border guard watched passively – and then stopped a Czech car coming from Warsaw and ordered its new Polish tires stripped from the car, claiming that they had been illegally purchased in Poland.
Western trade wars were love fests compared to East Bloc trade fights. COMECON – the Council for Mutual Economic Cooperation – was derided by East Europeans as the “council for mutual exchange of inefficiency.” COMECON was the foreign trade organization of a group of nations that instinctively hated foreign trade.
In Budapest, the saying was “We deliver grain to the Czechs and they in turn deliver machinery to the Poles. The Poles then ship chemicals to the Soviet Union and as a final payment, we get a Russian folk dance ensemble in return.”

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on November 7, 2017.

Bezos Calls The Top? Sells $1.1 Billion Of Amazon Stock At Record Highs

Is the world’s richest man starting to get a little concerned that his $90 billion fortune in Amazon stock might just be fully valued? Well, judging by his SEC disclosures from last Friday, Bezos provided investors with roughly 1.1 billion reasons why the answer to that question may be a resounding ‘yes’.
As Bloomberg points out, Bezos sold a total of 1 million Amazon shares over the course of three days last week netting roughly $1.1 billion in proceeds. The sale represented just 1.3% of Bezos’ total stake in Amazon and leaves him with 16.4% of the company’s shares outstanding.
***
Of course, the stock sales came after Amazon beat earnings estimates the week prior (see: Amazon Soars Above $1,000 After Smashing Expectations) and pushed the stock to new all-time highs. As an added benefit, the move also once again thrust Bezos ahead of Bill Gates on the Billionaire leader board.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2017.