JULY 27/GOLD UP $ 10.45 WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS/GOLD/SILVER EQUITY SHARES FLOUNDER AT THE END OF THE DAY SIGNALLING A POSSIBLE RAID TOMORROW//EU IS FORCING 3 COUNTRIES TO ACCEPT MIGRANTS AGAINST …

GOLD: $1260.30 UP $10.45
Silver: $16.59 UP 13 cent(s)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1259.50
silver: $16.58
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1269.54 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1263.20
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $6.34
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1267.86
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1262.60
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$5.26
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1262.05
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1263.00
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1261.10
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1261.20
For comex gold:
JULY/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 400 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 175 FOR 17500 OZ (.5443 TONNES)
For silver:
JULY
112 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
560,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3282 for 16,410,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
WE HAVE NOW ENTERED OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK:
LONDON BASED OPTIONS EXPIRY: JULY 31.2017 AT 11AM OR SO.
(OTC/LBMA CONTRACTS)
Judging from the way the gold/silver shares traded today, it sure looks like the boys are going to orchestrate another humdinger of a raid against us tomorrow.

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on July 27, 2017.

How to Learn About Finance

Lots of people ask me for good beginner books about finance.
That’s one of the hardest questions I get.
I think back to when I was learning about finance – one of my Coast Guard shipmates had these things called ‘mutual funds,’ so I found some free literature about mutual funds and started reading.
At the time, I was living in an economically unfortunate town in coastal Washington State. There was a used bookstore in town. I bought two books: A Random Walk Down Wall Street, by Burton Malkiel, and Bogle on Mutual Funds, by John Bogle. The first two books I read were books on indexing!
After reading them, I knew with every cell in my body that the Efficient Market Hypothesis was wrong, and had to be disproved.
But those books were a good start. So sometimes when people ask me what books they should start with, I tell them about Malkiel and Bogle. Then I tell them that those books are all wrong. They look at me like I have a cabbage for a head.

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on JULY 27, 2017.

BAT Is Dead: Republicans Kill Border Adjustment Tax

The Trump fiscal agenda – which these days really means tax reform – may be dead, but that does not mean it can’t reemerge as a zombie every now and then. That’s precisely what happened moments ago when Paul Ryan just announced that after months of speculation whether border adjustment tax will or won’t be implemented to help offset Trump’s proposed tax cuts, it is now officially dead.
RYAN IS SAID TO BE TELLING REPUBLICANS BORDER TAX IS DEAD: BBG As Reuters adds:
“BIG SIX” REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS, TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCE BORDER TAX PROVISION HAS BEEN SET ASIDE IN ORDER TO ADVANCE TAX OVERHAUL A statement Thursday from the so-called Big Six – Ryan, Brady, White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch – said due to the unknowns associated with the border-adjusted tax, the group ‘had decided to set this policy aside in order to advance tax reform.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.

The Saudi Power Balance Is On A Knife-Edge

The sweltering heat of Saudi Arabian summer will feel like a cool breeze compared to the geopolitical fire that could soon take over the country if ongoing internal power struggles destabilize the Kingdom’s Royal Family and national security in the coming weeks.
After his successful elevation to Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has been appointed by King Salman to be in charge during his holiday to Morocco. The King’s holiday comes at a time of relative instability in the Kingdom, as the effects of the removal of former Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef at the end of the Ramadan period continue to linger.
King Salman’s choice to award his son the position of Crown Prince was expected, but insiders are warning that his predecessor still holds a great deal of influence. To put MBS in charge during this already very volatile period in the Gulf, as the Saudi-led alliance continues to up the pressure on Arab neighbor Qatar, is feeding into uncertainty.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.

Graham Dares Trump: “Holy Hell To Pay if You Fire Sessions”

Threat, promise, or red flag to a bull?
After a few days of non-stop tirades against current Attorney-General Jeff Sessions by President Trump, increasing numbers of Republicans are coming out in support of the “beleauered” AG urging Trump to stop.
As Bloomberg reports, a number of Republicans have called White House officials – and even Trump personally – to warn against removing Sessions, according to a Senate GOP aide who asked not to be identified discussing the private conversations. Their message has been that Sessions is universally liked on Capitol Hill and that removing him would be one of Trump’s biggest mistakes as president.
But, just in case the message from senior Republicans was not getting to the President, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina told CNN on Thursday morning…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.

While Markets Get Pricey, Cracks Starting to Appear

Financial Sense recently spoke with Caroline Miller, Senior Vice President and Global Strategist at BCA Research, one of the world’s leading providers of investment analysis and forecasts, to discuss the details of her recent webcast, Global Reflation: Where Next for Policy, Profits, and Prices?
As Caroline explained to FS Insider last week, given the current trends underway, BCA believes that the US business cycle has another year left before a possible recession around the 2019 timeframe, preceded by a potential market peak next year, as monetary conditions edge into ‘overly restrictive’ territory from their presently accommodative levels. Caroline also outlined their current investment strategy and weightings on global equities, bonds, and other asset classes, while also commenting on signs of froth in commercial real estate and the dangerous levels of corporate debt.
Here are some key sections and charts from that conversation.
Ultra-Easy Money No Longer Required

This post was published at FinancialSense on 07/26/2017.

Paulson Shutters Long-Short Equity Fund Amid Massive Healthcare Losses

After gaining instant fame with his massive subprime bet back in 2008/2009, John Paulson can’t seem to buy a clue of late. Over the past couple of years, a series of strategic missteps have resulted in abysmal returns and increasing concern among investors that Paulson may have been nothing more than a “one-trick pony” all along.
Of course, as we pointed out back in November, one of the biggest of those ‘missteps’ seems to have been the creation of a $500 million, long-short equity fund focused on healthcare about two years ago.
The strategy seemed simple enough at the time: make a massive, Paulson-esque bet on the consolidation of large multi-national pharmaceutical businesses, hedge that bet with bearish wagers on the broader markets and sit back and wait for the money to flow in just like with the subprime bet. Unfortunately, exactly the opposite happened in 2016 with the broader markets advancing while Paulson’s largest pharma holdings completely collapsed anywhere from 30% – 85%. Oops.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Building a Dream

“Seek the Lord, all you humble of the land,
who have observed his law;
Seek justice, seek humility;
And perhaps you will be sheltered
on the day of the Lord’s justice.
This was the triumphal city, high and mighty,
Saying to herself, ‘I am the one, and none dare stand beside me.’
How desolate now has she become, a place fit only for wild beasts.
Those who pass by her scoff, and shake their heads at her ruin.”
Zephaniah 2:3,15
I have a feeling that we are going to be seeing some real fireworks in the precious metals before the end of the year.
But feelings really do not count in markets. But it is there, tempting my trading discipline. I know that you have never experienced that. lol.
Stocks bobbled a bit today. I also think we will be seeing a slide in stocks. But let’s see how the earnings come out, and what the Fed does about their bloated balance sheet.
While I am not so sure yet about where gold and silver and stocks are going, here are three things that I am pretty sure about.
1. There is no sustainable recovery. Basic items like housing and healthcare are fast outstripping the growth in real wages.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 27 JULY 2017.

Scaramucci: “Priebus Is A F**king Paranoid Schizophrenic”, Slams “Cocksucker” Bannon, Wants To “Kill” Leakers

Update: After what was either (i) his first White House nervous breakdown or (ii) a carefully disguised distraction intended to give the media something other than Russia to discuss on this weekend’s political talk show circuit, Anthony Scaramucci has just issued the following statement via Twitter:
I sometimes use colorful language. I will refrain in this arena but not give up the passionate fight for @realDonaldTrump's agenda. #MAGA
— Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci) July 27, 2017

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.

Housing Bubble 2.0: Making America More Unstable, Again

With low inflation and continuing stagnation in median wages another housing bubble is just what the doctor ordered as a cure for the last financial crisis, caused in part by the rampant financial fraud associated with Housing Bubble 1.0.
And it looks like we have yet another tech stock bubble well underway.
Meanwhile the public is distracted by the corporate media’s endless coverage of clown car antics and foreign plots to pollute our precious bodily fluids.
Well done, elites, well done.
And no one could have seen it coming, again.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 26 JULY 2017.

$350 Trillion In Securities In Limbo: LIBOR To Be Phased Out By 2021

Unofficially, Libor died some time in 2012 when what until then was a giant “conspiracy theory” – namely that the world’s most important reference index, setting the price for $350 trillion in loans, credit and derivative securities had been rigged for years – was confirmed. Officially, Libor died earlier today when the top U. K. regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority which regulates Libor, said the scandal-plagued index would be phased out and that work would begin for a transition to alternate, and still undetermined, benchmarks by the end of 2021.
As Andrew Bailey, chief executive of the FCA, explained the decision to eliminate Libor was made as the amount of interbank lending has hugely diminished and as a result ‘we do not think markets can rely on Libor continuing to be available indefinitely.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.

Markets Relax Merrily on a Powerful Time Bomb

Magnitude unknown but huge. Brokerages push it to new heights.
Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere. Some of it is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or ‘shadow margin’ because no one knows how much of it there is. But it’s a lot. And it’s booming.
These loans can be used for anything – pay for tuition, fix up that kitchen, or fund a vacation. The money is spent, the loan remains. When security prices fall, the problems begin.
Finra, the regulator for brokerages, doesn’t track this shadow margin, nor does the SEC. Both, however, have been warning about the risks. No one knows the overall amount of this shadow margin, but some details have been reported:
Morgan Stanley had $36 billion of these loans on its balance sheet as of the end of 2016, up 26% from 2016, and more than twice the amount in 2013. Bank of America Merrill Lynch had $40 billion in SBLs on the balance sheet at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010;

This post was published at Wolf Street on Jul 27, 2017.

Gold Market Morning: July-27-2017: rising despite heavy U.S. gold ETF sales!

Gold Today – New York closed the day before yesterday at $1,248.40. London opened at $1,262.00 today.
Overall the dollar was weaker against global currencies, early today. Before London’s opening:
– The $: was weaker at $1.1728 after the day before yesterday’s $1.1654: 1.
– The Dollar index was weaker at 93.50 after the day before yesterday’s 93.97.
– The Yen was unchanged at 111.25 after the day before yesterday’s 111.25:$1.
– The Yuan was stronger at 6.7377 after the day before yesterday’s 6.7506: $1.
– The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.3138 after the day before yesterday’s $1.3031: 1.
Yuan Gold Fix
The reaction to the Fed’s inaction not just on rates but on the timing of the contraction of the Fed’s Balance Sheet, interrupted the gold price relationship between global markets. New York closed at the same level as Shanghai yesterday, but London opened at just $2.50 below Shanghai’s trading level this morning. The price differentials between the global markets were nearly eliminated on the back of the Fed’s inaction. We look today to see just how global markets interact and to see if they are really narrowing their differences.
If you had been following our commentary in the Gold Forecaster newsletter on China and the shift of pricing power to the east, you would not have been tempted to sell your holdings of gold or silver!

This post was published at GoldSeek on 27 July 2017.

Mark Hanson Reveals “The Next Housing Bubble”

The striking Case-Shiller regional charts shown below, courtesy of MHanson.com, make Mark Hanson angry: “so, 2006/2007 was the largest house price bubble ever, but there is nothing to see here in 2017?” and sarcastically points out that “if this isn’t a house price bubble, I would hate to see one.”
His bottom line:
If 2006/07 was the peak of the largest housing bubble in history with affordability never better vis a’ vis exotic loans; easy availability of credit; unemployment in the 4%’s; the total workforce at record highs; and growing wages, then what do you call ‘now’ with house prices at or above 2006 levels; worse affordability; tighter credit; higher unemployment; a weakening total workforce; and shrinking wages? Whatever you call it, it’s a greater thing than the Bubble 1.0 peak.
And visually:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.

Demand for Physical Gold Up, Supply Down in First Half of 2017

It’s easy to get caught up in what the Fed will do next, or the latest political brouhaha in Washington D. C. And of course, this stuff matters. But when it comes to gold, you should never lose sight of fundamentals.
Nothing is more fundamental than supply and demand. Based on the GFMS Gold Survey 2017 H1 Update Outlook, the fundamentals for gold are trending in a positive direction. Demand is pushing upward, while supply is falling.
Demand for physical gold rose to 1,895 tons in the first half of 2017, a 17% increase over the same period last year.
Comparing the first and second quarter of this year also reveals an upward trend. Demand climbed in Q2 2017 to 957 tons. That was up from 938 tons in Q1, a 2% increase.
Meanwhile, total supply dropped 5% in the first half of the year. Mine output was stagnant, falling by 0.2%. Production dropped precipitously in China and Australia, the world’s number one and number two producers. The amount of scrap gold also fell, helping to drive the decline in supply.
In many ways, the demand increase signals a return to normalcy after a tumultuous 2016.
After the rollercoaster ride of events for the gold market in 2016, from a jewelers’ strike to Brexit to Trump to demonetization, 2017 has avoided similar dramatic events in the first half, at least from a gold perspective with far right candidates seeing little success in a range of European countries. Indeed the first half of this year has arguably been more of a reversion to normality across much of the gold market, with neither the highs (of ETF demand) or lows (of truly pitiful Asian demand) that were recorded in the first half of 2016 being repeated.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 27, 2017.

Bill Blain: “Are We In A Bubble About To Burst, Or Are We Facing Massive Equity Upside?”

Are We In A Bubble About To Burst, Or Are We Facing Massive Equity Upside?
‘A liberal is a conservative who has been arrested.’
No surprises from the Fed last night. Unchanged rate talk and hints about reducing the balance sheet ‘relatively soon’. We can go figure what ‘relatively’ means when inflation picks up. The stock market soared and VIX tumbled to a record low. Was that a warning about complacency? Since the 2008 crisis we’ve been here many times before – worrying about signals the economy is strengthening when suddenly its dived weaker.
But, those us with longer memories can recall when the US economy has turned dramatically stronger – and in 1994, (yes, I remember it well), when the Fed acted prematurely, spiked the recovery and triggered what we’d now call a massive Treasury market TanTrum. This time it feels very different. I suspect we are very much still on course towards normalisation – a new kind of new normal: low rates, low inflation and steady state low growth.
Stuff to watch today: Dovish Fed boosts stocks (record Dow) and dollar crashes. Lots of corporate results to wonder and worry about! Stuff the think about: Deutsche Bank results show it’s taken yet another thumping – difficult to see how it plays catch up and regains market relevance when it’s still swinging the headcount axe. Where is the US economy when inflation remains so low? What are the risks to Europe of the low dollar?

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.

Gold Price Jumps in Dollars as ‘Low-Rate Yellen’ Gets Trump’s Backing

Gold price gains continued for Dollar investors on Thursday but held flat for other traders as the US currency touched its lowest Euro value since January 2015 following yesterday’s “no change” decision from the Federal Reserve.
“The actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data,” said the Fed’s July statement, seemingly delaying a move to start reducingits $4.6 trillion holdings of QE-bought Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds.
Asian stock markets rose – as did most commodities and major government bond prices – but European equities then slipped as the Dollar bounced from its new 30-month lows versus the 19-nation single currency.
Gold priced in Dollars today set its highest London benchmarking since 14 June at $1262 per ounce.
But priced in Euros, gold fixed at only a 3-session high. The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce reached only a 2-session high.
Thursday morning’s Dollar price stood 2.0% above the 2017 average to date.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 07/27/2017.