Asian Metals Market Update: July-17-2017

It was quite a week last week. For the bears of gold and silver, it was the distance between the slip and the lip. Trump’s Russia connections and a hawkish Federal Reserve came to the rescue of gold and silver bulls. Low inflation will reduce the pace of interest rate hikes. Interest rates in the USA will rise at a faster pace if and only if the Federal Reserve ignores inflation and focusses on other macro factors of the US economy. Global central banks and not just the Federal Reserve do not have room to reduce liquidity by much. If they increase interest rates at a quicker pace till next year, then a lot of so called ‘too large to fail’ banks could be get. There are also certain sectors in every nation which are nearing bubble zone and could get busted due to quicker interest rate hikes. Gold and silver will zoom once traders perceive that interest rate hikes have formed a medium term top.
China is on a land encroachment spree with most of its neighbors. Other than its northern borders with Russia China is unofficially increasing its land boundaries. Some nations have succumbed to China while others like India under an able political leadership are now trying to counter China. War/skirmishes with China are imminent as far as India is concerned. Chinese land encroachment policy will result in increase in the pace of rise in physical gold demand from Asia. Chinese government policies ensure that gold buying reaches to each and every strata of its people. (Unlike Indian government which is trying to take all steps to dissuade Indians to buy gold).
The effects of the Islamization of Europe are being felt in a big way. In my view the UK more or less has a state support to Islamic terrorists. All global terror organizations openly raise funding in the UK. The Scotland Yard knows the terrorists and supports the global Islamic terrorists as long as they are able to use them. So called British exit from the EU will be more peaceful for the Eurozone as UK terror imports will reduce. Europe’s daily rise in terror threats will ensure that gold and other safe havens demand will be on the boil over the coming years.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 16 July 2017.

Our Disneyland Economy

Disneyland is known as a place ‘where dreams come true’ and where every story always has a happy ending. But there is going to be no happy ending for the U. S. economy. Wishful thinking has resulted in one of the greatest stock market rallies in history in recent months, but like all childhood fantasies, it won’t last. The real economy continues to deteriorate, and we can see this even right outside of the gates of Disneyland. Every night growing numbers of homeless people sleep on the pavement just steps away from ‘the happiest place on Earth’. It can be fun to ‘play make believe’ for a while, but eventually reality always catches up with us.
Without a doubt, the stock market has been on a tremendous run. Since Donald Trump’s stunning election victory in November, the market has been setting record high after record high, and it is now up a total of 17 percent…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its 23rd all time high of 2017 yesterday closing at 21,532. There have been a total of 120 days where the markets have closed since President Trump’s inauguration on January 20th. The ‘DOW’ has closed at all time highs 23 of those days for nearly 20% or one-fifth of the days the market has been open. The market is up 9% since the inauguration.
Since the election on November 8th the DOW has closed at record highs an amazing 40 times! Nearly one-fourth or 24% of the 168 days the markets have closed have been record highs since the November 8th election. The market is up 17% since the election!
If this surge was supported by hard economic data, that would be something to greatly celebrate, but that has not been the case at all.
Instead, stock prices have become completely disconnected from economic reality, and now we are facing one of the greatest stock bubbles of all time. As Graham Summers has pointed out, stocks are now trading at price to sales ratios that we haven’t seen since the very height of the dotcom bubble…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on July 16th, 2017.

CNN Caught Faking News Again: Now It’s The UAE, Not Russia, Who “Hacked” Qatar

Just over a month ago, we expressed amazement at just how sophisticated, efficient and pervasive the ‘Russian hacking’ community had become after CNN reported – citing unnamed government officials of course – that they had managed to hack into a Qatari News Agency and post a ‘fake’ news story all in an attempt to drive a wedge between the U. S., Qatar and some of it’s Gulf Arab neighbors, one which culminated – at least according to the CNN narrative – with the Qatari crisis in which an alliance of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia isolated and blockaded the nat gas rich nation.
The CNN headline made it quite clear: ignore the Arab conflict and please focus on the only thing that matters these days: Russia. Just in case it is somehow lost, we will have it here for posterity.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 16, 2017.

FX Week Ahead Preview: Is it “End Of Days” For The Greenback

FX Week Ahead, courtesy of Rajan Dhall from fxdaily.co.uk
Coming off the back of another bad week for the USD, we look to a barren period for the data schedule in the US, so markets will have to determine whether to extend this weakness based on the evidence so far.
Friday’s hit on US rates was more a function of the softer retail sales data than the inflation read, where the core year on year was unchanged at 1.7% as forecast. However, with seasonal factors supportive of a pick up in consumer spending in June, there was little improvement on the weak May readings in retail, and USD sellers were back in with force. The greenback ended the week on its lows across the board, but this was tempered to a degree against the JPY and CHF.
Even though the JPY is still seen to be a little undervalued at current levels vs the USD, the consistent BoJ policy to keep the key 10yr JGB rate near/at zero is underpinning the spot rate to a degree, but this also depends on whether the global risk tone can be maintained. Despite the backdrop of tensions over North Korea, as well as the ever present risk of president Trump sparking a trade war (with anyone), equities continue to grind higher with their Teflon (Kevlar) coated armour, so the carry trades will naturally follow. On this note, watch out for the China GDP numbers Sunday night and any material drop from the annualised growth rate of 6.9% from Q1 – Q2 forecast at 6.8% and risk sentiment would easily stomach that.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 16, 2017.

What Was So Innocent about the Gilded Age?

Some years ago, I became intrigued by the culture and economy of the Gilded Age (America, roughly 1870 to 1913), the last glimmer of the Belle poque. These were the final decades of the age of laissez faire, a time of astonishing invention, life expansion, explosive prosperity, and peace. A new world was being born. A new ruling class was born too, not of privilege but of merit in a capitalist economy.
For most Americans, this period of history remains unreported but for the legendary myths of the ‘robber barons.’ What is not often understood is the jaw-dropping change in the way people came to live. Think of it. In one or two generations, we were introduced to mass commercial markets for books, internal combustion, common use of steel in bridges and tall buildings, electricity, geographical noncontiguous communication, and eventually telephones, indoor heating, flight, and huge medical advances leading to declining infant mortality. Even if this list causes you to yawn, consider a more pressing invention to come out of the Gilded Age: the hamburger. That’s right: it was first introduced at the 1904 World’s Fair. These were once wonderful events, showing all the newest and coolest things coming in a world that most everyone thought had the brightest possible future. After all, kings and presidents were diminishing in stature and the captains of industry were rising, leading the whole of humanity to an age of opportunity and plenty for all.

This post was published at Mises Canada on JULY 14, 2017.

Millennials Could Be Key To Illinois’ Housing Recovery… But They’re Fleeing The State

Illinois loses more millennial taxpayers and dependents to other states than any state except New York; this means Illinois’ distressed housing market is losing a big contingent of first-time homebuyers.
Illinois had the nation’s third-highest share of seriously underwater properties as of March 2017, according to a May 2017 report by RealtyTrac. Millennials could be the key to propping up home values: Robust homebuying forces property values up, and millennials were the largest group of homebuyers for each of the past four years, according to NBC News. Unfortunately, Illinois’ millennials are leaving instead of putting down roots.
A home is underwater when the homeowner owes more to the mortgage lender than the home is worth at current prices. If a home is seriously underwater, the homeowner owes at least 25 percent more on the mortgage than the current value of her home. Any money she’s invested in her home in the form of a down payment and mortgage payments is effectively lost if she goes to sell. She will not get any of that money back unless home values rise.
No homeowner wants her home to sink beneath the surface. However, an underwater or seriously underwater homeowner won’t really feel the pain unless she wants or needs to sell her property. Then she faces dim prospects:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 16, 2017.

Caitlyn Jenner Is Exploring A Senate Run

Earlier this week, Kid Rock announced that he’s exploring a senate bid in his home state of Michigan, energizing conservative activists who believe Rock – real name Robert James Ritchie – would easily defeat incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow and go on to become the first Republican to hold her seat since 1998.
But Rock isn’t the only celebrity who will be seeking a senate seat during the 2018 cycle: Olympic gold medalist and transgender activist Caitlyn Jenner has revealed during an interview with radio host John Catsimatidis that she has considered launching a run for Senate, and that she is in the process of determining her future in activism and politics, according to the Hill.
The term of Dianne Feinstein, the senior senator from California and, at 84, the longest-serving US senator, is up in 2018, and there’s speculation that she may not run again, given her age.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 16, 2017.

The Economic System Has Failed,The Fed Will Hide It All By Pushing Markets Higher – Episode 1333a

The following video was published by X22Report on Jul 16, 2017
Many of the EU countries are at the point where more and more people are falling into poverty. The stats don’t add up, unemployment decreases and retail sales decreases and the restaurant industry declines rapidly. Visa is offering restaurants $500,000 not accept cash. Illinois pension system was created by manipulating the numbers. Ron Paul says when the central banks make the statement that everything is Ok, this is when the economy collapses.

Technical Scoop – Weekend Update July 16

The stock market yawned, and then moved to new highs! We know that is probably not what most people would have expected from the latest revelations of the ongoing saga of President Trump and his family. But that is exactly what happened as the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) moved to new all-time highs. The revelation was the botched attempt by Donald Trump Jr., the son of President Donald Trump to get dirt on Hillary Clinton by meeting up with a woman described as ‘the Russian government attorney.’
The meeting was apparently attended by Donald Trump Jr., the President’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the former campaign advisor Paul Manafort who himself has been revealed as having deep financial ties to Russian interests, the Russian government lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, and most recently reported, a Russian-American lobbyist Rinat Akhmetshin. The meeting is being viewed by some as the most tangible evidence of a connection between the Trump campaign and Russia, a connection that had been denied previously by both the President and Donald Trump Jr. The investigation is the subject of an investigation by a federal special counsel.
The President praised his son’s transparency for revealing the emails that said, ‘I love it’ to what he had been told was an attempt by the Russian government to undermine Hillary Clinton’s presidential election campaign. What all of this does, however, is give fuel to a fire that has been burning since Donald Trump officially became President in January 2017. The DJI is up 8.8% since the inauguration. Gold is up roughly 2%, but the US$ Index has fallen 5.4%.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 16 July 2017.

Bank Of America Explains What Federer’s Victory Means For Fed Monetary Policy

On Sunday, Roger Federer did what many in recent years said was impossible, when he won his record, 8th Wimbledon title, defeating Croatia’s Cilic in straight sets.
Away from the court, the victory may be an ominous sign for EM bears. As Bloomberg’s Marc Cudmore said earlier this week, when he explained why he more focused on this Fed rather than the one run by Janet Yellen, “The Fed” has won seven of the past 14 championships. In every year he’s been victorious, both the MSCI EM Currency Index and the MSCI EM Equity Index have gained. By contrast, in five of the seven years he hasn’t finished triumphant, both those indexes have dropped.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 16, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – I Shall Not Want

“Teach me your way, Lord,
that I may rely on your faithfulness;
give me an undivided heart,
that I may fear your name.
I will praise you, Lord my God, with all my heart;
I will glorify your name forever.
For great is your love towards me;
you have delivered me from the depths
and the realm of the dead.”
Psalm 86:11-13
“But the Lord stood at my side, and gave me strength, so that the message might be fully proclaimed, so that all might hear. And I was delivered from the lion’s mouth.”
2 Timothy 4:17
“I see dead people. They don’t know that they are dead. Walking around, like regular people. They don’t see each other. They only see what they want to see. They don’t know they’re dead. I see them all the time – they are everywhere; they only see what they want to see.”
Cole Sear, The Sixth Sense
More of the same.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 14 JULY 2017.

Rand Paul Says Senate Health-Care Bill Doesn’t Have The Votes

Senator Rand Paul took to the Sunday talk shows again this week to discuss the fate of Senate Health care bill 2.0., and in news that will surprise almost no one who’s been following along, the conservative Kentucky senator said Sunday on Fox and Friends that he doesn’t think Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has the votes to pass the healthcare bill in its current form, according to the Hill.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell released a new version of a healthcare plan earlier this week, which, among other things, incorporates demands from Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) to allow insurers to sell low-cost, skimpier plans all in an effort to draw conservative support for the new bill.


This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 16, 2017.

Peak Bull: Fake Economy, and Fake News

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of The Daily Reckoning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
The American economy has been mangled by decades of assault on capitalist prosperity.
Growth is now dying because the Federal Reserve’s hit on corporate America that has strip-mined its balance sheets to feed the halls of Wall Street. Trillions of dollars have been thrown into financial engineering (stock buybacks, M&A deals and leveraged recaps) while neglecting real investment and productivity in Flyover America.
***
The single most important thing that speculators and bulls on Wall Street should be looking at now is where we came from. If Wall Street understood this, they wouldn’t continue to expect the ‘born again’ Reagan stimulus that has been imagined since Trump’s inauguration.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on July 15, 2017.

Goldman Is Troubled By The Fed’s Growing Warnings About High Asset Prices

With both the S&P, and global stock markets, closing last week at new all time highs, it is safe to say that any and all warnings about “froth“, and perhaps a bubble in the market, as Deutsche Bank characterized it last week have been ignored. And yet, as Goldman’s economist team writes over the weekend, the recent rise in warnings about “risk levels” and asset prices by Fed officials is concerning: “Fed officials have expressed greater concern about asset prices and financial stability risk recently, a change from their more relaxed view last fall. In particular, the minutes to the June FOMC meeting highlighted concern about high equity valuations and low volatility and drew a connection between potential overheating in the real economy and financial markets.”
To underscore this point, here is a recap of recent Fed warnings about asset prices, which have increased significantly since the presidential election:
Janet Yellen, July 12, 2017
So in looking at asset prices and valuations, we try not to opine on whether they are correct or not correct. But as you asked what the potential spillovers or impacts on financial stability could be of asset price revaluations – my assessment of that is that as assets prices have moved up, we have not seen a substantial increase in borrowing based on those asset price movements. We have a financial system and banking system that is well capitalized and strong and I believe it is resilient.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 16, 2017.

Can’t Afford A Shanghai Apartment? Try Sleeping In A “Shared Compartment”

Shanghai’s status as an emerging tech hub is bringing with it problems related to overcrowding experienced by US cities like San Francisco and certain parts of New York City – namely out-of-control rents and home prices.
But now, the cities’ mid-tier office drones, some of whom may not have enough cash saved to ‘commit’ to an apartment, have a new low-cost housing alternative. They’re called shared compartments, and they’re are popping up in office buildings around Shanghai. Users pay to sleep in the compartments for a set amount of time. They’re given disposable bedding to make sleeping more comfortable, and the compartments are disinfected automatically by ultraviolet light after each use.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 16, 2017.

Market Liquidity Conditions Are Still Loose As A Goose

Since the Fed began raising interest rates in December 2015, financial market liquidity conditions have loosened considerably. Recall our post, Orwellian Monetary Policy, which we wrote in May.
‘Tightening is Easing’
Since U. S. monetary policy began tightening in December 2015, the Fed has added liquidity to the financial system through interest payments to banks on excess reserves and has reduced its surplus to the Treasury adding to the fiscal deficit. Thus the financial system has had an effective injection of central bank liquidity and a fiscal expansion during a period of monetary tighenting. – Global Macro Monitor
The current Fed policy effectively injects liquidity into the financial system through raising the IOER rate – printing money to make interest payments on reserves banks hold on deposit at the Fed. This compares to the traditional monetary where the Fed drains reserves from the financial system to drive the Fed Funds rate higher. We are years off to getting back to traditional monetary policy. Maybe not in our lifetime.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 16, 2017.

Hedge Fund CIO: “We’ve Realized Roughly 3 Years Of Gains In The First 6 Months Of 2017”

As part of the local Sunday ritual, here is Eric Peters with his latest Weekend Notes, providing some context on recent, and not so recent market moves.
Weekend Notes
‘US stocks rise roughly 7% per year,’ he said. ‘Same holds true for Australia; basically, for all economies uninterrupted by catastrophic war at home.’
The 7% roughly equals 5% nominal GDP growth plus an extra 2% which is due to the S&P 500 index periodically kicking out bad companies and replacing them with better ones.
‘Sometimes the market runs ahead of this 7% rate of return, which doesn’t mean it’s the wrong price, it simply means it’s premature.’ In a world of fiat money, high prices are never wrong, they’re only early.
‘It took fourteen years for the stock market to return to its 1968 highs,’ he continued. ‘And at that point in 1982, with overnight interest rates at 20% and the S&P 500 price-to-earnings multiple at roughly 8, the market still had miles to run.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 16, 2017.

PRECIOUS METALS SECTOR update – the BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY SINCE LATE 2015, and the LAST CHANCE AT THESE PRICES…

We’ve had to wait 18 months for an opportunity as big as the one we saw late in 2015 to appear again in the Precious Metals sector. ‘Wait a minute’, I hear you say, ‘prices were generally lower back then at that low than they are now, so how can it be as big an opportunity, as leverage is reduced?’. Here are the reasons, one technical, the other fundamental. When prices rose out of the late 2015 low, which was the Head of the Head-and-Shoulders bottom shown to advantage on the 10-year chart for GDX below, they were destined to retrace to mark out the Right Shoulder of the pattern, which is what now has most investors very negative towards the sector again. This time they don’t have to – they can now rise out of this trough and proceed to break out upside from the entire pattern to embark on a mighty bullmarket. The fundamental reason is this – most investors have been taken in by the specious Central Bank talk about ‘normalizing interest rates’ and scaling back their bloated balance sheets – but they haven’t got a cat in hell’s chance of doing this – why? – because debt (and associated derivatives) has expanded to such gargantuan levels, that any attempt to bring it under control will send interest rates skyrocketing. Because of this stark reality, they are left with only one option – to inflate the debt away by monetizing it, which means inflation. Once investors grasp the inevitability of this – and that this process will soon get underway with a vengeance, gold and silver will soar. That is what the charts that we are going to look at today are telling us, and it means that we may never see the bargains in the Precious Metals sector that are now available ever again – or at least not for a very long time.
The latest COTs are telling us that gold and silver have hit bottom, or are very close to having done so, and that the time to buy the sector is now. Before proceeding to look at them we will start by looking at the latest 10-year chart for GDX, a reliable PM stocks proxy, to see where we are on the market clock, where we are in the PM stock price cycle.

This post was published at Clive Maund on Saturday, July 15, 2017.

COT Report Gets Even More Favorable For Gold And Silver

Just a quick, happy update on the gold/silver COT reports. See last week’s post for a little more background.
Speculators are running scared in the paper precious metals markets. And that’s a good thing.
The past few months’ correction has finally led hedge funds and other technical/momentum traders to shed their long positions and load up on short bets. Meanwhile the Commercials, which tend to be right at big turning points, are becoming much more bullish.
Historically, the kind of internal structure now evolving in the futures market has signaled the start of a new upswing in prices. That may or may not hold this time around. But if it’s not a screaming buy, it is an indication that that day is getting closer.

This post was published at DollarCollapse on JULY 15, 2017.