Money Is Money, Wherever It Comes From

One of the crucial things to understand about today’s world is that money is fungible. Whether it’s created in Japan, Europe, China or the US, once it’s tossed by a central bank into one or another part of the global economy, it eventually finds its way to a common pool of liquidity.
So the modest US tightening of the past year (100 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate, slight decrease in Fed balance sheet) has to be seen in a global context. And that context is still insanely easy. Here, for instance, is China’s ‘social financing’ – their term for total new debt:

This post was published at DollarCollapse on JULY 25, 2017.

Hyundai-Kia Brutally Crushed in China, Mauled in the US

Its largest & second largest markets. In how much trouble is it?
Hyundai Motor Group is getting brutally crushed in its largest market, China, where it is, or rather was, the third largest automaker behind GM and Volkswagen. And it is getting mauled in its second largest market, the US, where it is the seventh largest automaker behind the Big Three US automakers and the Big Three Japanese automakers.
Hyundai Motor Group came about in 1998 after the Asian Financial Crisis, when it obtained a controlling stake in Kia after Kia went bankrupt. The Korean conglomerate, in addition to automakers Hyundai and Kia, has other affiliates, including Hyundai Steel, logistics company Hyundai Glovis, and auto components supplier Hyundai Mobis, all of which are listed separately on the Korean stock exchange.
These entities support and supply the automakers Hyundai and Kia and are dependent on what the automakers sell. And both automakers are in the same boat in China, where things were already hard before the 2017 collapse began.

This post was published at Wolf Street on Jul 25, 2017.

“If The VIX Goes Bananas”, Morgan Stanley Shows What It Would Look Like

It’s easy to become numb to the low volatility environment and the risks it presents. While trying to pick a trough in vol has been a fool’s errand, focusing on the risks resulting from vol being so low is not. Low volatility has produced a regime where the risks are asymmetric and negatively convex, so being prepared for an unwind is critical. This is not a call that vol is about to spike, but you need a plan if it does.
This note details how a short vol unwind might develop. A violent rise in volatility could be driven by just a 3% to 4% one-day S&P 500 selloff. Right now the risk is greatest in the VIX complex, and demand for VIX futures from three main sources could result in 100,000 contracts ($100mm vega) to buy in a down 3.5% SPX move. For context VIX futures ADV over the last year is 230,000 (although has risen to as high as 700,000 in big selloffs).

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 25, 2017.

Scientists Warn That The Countdown To The Extinction of The Human Race Is Accelerating

Humanity is steamrolling toward a date with extinction, and yet most people have absolutely no idea that this is happening. Most of us like to think that we are part of the smartest, tallest and fastest generation in human history, but science has actually shown that the exact opposite is true. Compared to our ancient ancestors, we areshorter, slower and we have been losing mental capacity for thousands of years. And just this week, a groundbreaking study that discovered that large numbers of human males in the western world may soon be incapable of reproducing made headlines all over the planet…
Humans could become extinct if sperm counts in men from North America, Europe and Australia continue to fall at current rates, a doctor has warned.
Researchers assessing the results of nearly 200 separate studies say sperm counts among men from these areas seem to have halved in less than 40 years.
The 185 studies that the researchers took their data from were all conducted between 1973 and 2011. Dr. Hagai Levine was one of the lead scientists involved in the study, and he found that for men in North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand, sperm concentrations declined by 52.4 percent during the study period, and total sperm count declined by a whopping 59.3 percent.
If these trends continue, we will soon have tens of millions of young men that are incapable of producing children. The following comes from the Washington Post…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on July 25th, 2017.

Greece Sells 3 Billion In Bonds In 2x Oversubscribed Offering

So it can either come cheap with the new issue, which adds to existing debt service problems, or it can….structure around that.
— Owen Sanderson (@OwenPSanderson) July 25, 2017

Just over three years after Greece “triumphantly returned” to capital markets in April 2014, when it issued 3 billion in 5 year bonds at a yield of 4.95%, and a cash coupon of 4.75% – an offering which was 8x oversubcribed – and which crashed and nearly defaulted one year later when only the 3rd Greek bailout prevented the country from going bankrupt, only to get taken out at 102, moments ago Greece once again returned to the bond market, if far less triumphantly, by selling another 3 billion in 5 year paper which however was “only” 2x oversubscribed, with indications from Bloomberg that there was only 6.5 billion in demand for the “high yielding” paper. And speaking of yield, it came in lower than 3 years ago, pricing at 4.625% with a coupon of 4.375%.
For those who did not get their desired allottment in today’s offering, fear not there will be more:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 25, 2017.

FOMC Decision and Comex Option Expiration For Precious Metals Tomorrow – Beware the Leaven of the Pharisees

“Beware the leaven of the Pharisees, which is pious, hollow hypocrisy. There is nothing covered that shall not be revealed, and hidden, that shall not be made known. Whatever has been said in the darkness shall be heard in the light: and what has been whispered behind closed doors shall be shouted from the roof tops.”
Luke 12:1-3
‘Those among the fortunate rich who are not, in the rigorous sense, damned, can understand the neediness of poverty, because they are needy themselves, after a fashion; but they cannot understand true impoverishment.
Capable of giving alms, perhaps, but incapable of stripping themselves bare, they will be moved to the sound of beautiful music, at Jesus’s sufferings – but His Cross, the reality of the self-denial of His Cross, will horrify them. For they want it all out of gold, bathed in light, costly and of little weight; pleasant to see, and hanging from a beautiful woman’s throat.’
Lon Bloy
The charts are still pretty much lined up in areas where one might expect to see some movement when volatility returns to the markets.
The option expiry tomorrow is more significant for gold than silver.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 25 JULY 2017.

Five Reasons to Buy Gold

Despite what Warren Buffet might tell you, there are good reasons to buy gold.
In a speech several decades ago, the billionaire basically called the yellow metal useless.
[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.’
In the first place, the statement is patently false. Gold is increasingly being used in technological applications from biomedical processes to energy production. But even if Buffet was right and there were no practical uses for the yellow metal, there would still be good reasons to buy gold – starting with the fact that gold is money.
Here are five reasons to own gold gleaned from a Forbes article by analyst Olivier Garret.
Gold is money – Gold possesses all of the characteristics of money Aristotle listed 2,000 years ago.

This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 25, 2017.

Against Irredeemable Paper – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

The Antidote
Something needs to be said. We are against the existence of irredeemable paper currency, central banking and central planning, cronyism, socialized losses and privatized gains, counterfeit credit, wealth transfers and bailouts, and welfare both corporate and personal.
When we write to debunk the conspiracy theories that say manipulation is keeping gold from hitting $5,000 (one speaker here at Freedom Fest claimed gold will go to $65,000), we are not trying to defend the Fed. When we discuss the flaws in predicting that kind of price, and the error in expecting to profit from it, we are not expressing a pro irredeemable dollar view.
We are saying there are good arguments against the regime of irredeemable paper currency – but this is not one of them. Irredeemable currency has two fatal flaws. One is the interest rate is unhinged.
It can skyrocket as it did from the end of WWII through 1980, or collapse as it has been doing since then. Two is there is no extinguisher of debt. Debt grows – must necessarily grow – exponentially. As it has been doing for many decades.

This post was published at Acting-Man on July 25, 2017.

JULY 25/COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY AND AS ALWAYS GOLD AND SILVER ARE HIT: GOLD FALLS $2.10 BUT SILVER RESPONDS AND RISES 10 CENTS/GLD HAS A LOSS OF 9.17 TONNES/SLV HAS A LOSS OF 3.309 MILLION OZ/TURKEY…

GOLD: $1252.40 DOWN $2.10
Silver: $16.55 UP 10 cent(s)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1250.00
silver: $16.52
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1259.96 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1254.25
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $5.71
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1262.69
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1257.25
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$5.44
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1252.00
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1252.50
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1254.40
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1254.50
For comex gold:
JULY/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 6 NOTICE(S) FOR 600 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 157 FOR 15700 OZ (.4883 TONNES)
For silver:
JULY
122 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
610,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3149 for 15,745,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
WE HAVE NOW ENTERED OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK:
COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY: TOMORROW JULY 26.2017
LONDON BASED OPTIONS EXPIRY: JULY 31.2017 AT 11AM OR SO.
(OTC/LBMA CONTRACTS)

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on July 25, 2017.

Gold Market Morning: July-25-2017: Gold consolidating above $1,250

Gold Today – New York closed yesterday at $1,257.20. London opened at $1,253.00 today.
Overall the dollar was weaker against global currencies, early today. Before London’s opening:
– The $: was slightly weaker at $1.1654 after yesterday’s $1.1650: 1.
– The Dollar index was slightly stronger at 93.97 after yesterday’s 93.94.
– The Yen was weaker at 111.25 after yesterday’s 110.76:$1.
– The Yuan was almost unchanged at 6.7506 after yesterday’s 6.7503: $1.
– The Pound Sterling was slightly weaker at $1.3031 after yesterday’s $1.3041: 1.
Yuan Gold Fix
New York closed $0.50 higher than Shanghai on yesterday with London opening $7 lower than Shanghai. This keeps open arbitrage opportunities with Shanghai. Once again Shanghai is pointing the way higher for New York and London.
Sales from the SPDR gold ETF become available for shipping to Shanghai implying that should U. S. investors want to return to physical gold they will have to pay up for it.
Silver Today – Silver closed at $16.40 yesterday after $16.48 at New York’s close Friday.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 July 2017.

Why Robots Will Win the Coming Trade Wars

The first step to surviving a war is knowing which side you are on. But in a trade war, that’s not always easy.
Suppose the US imposed tariffs on steel imported from the European Union. Prices on goods made with that steel would probably rise, but this would affect you only to the extent you rely on those particular goods.
When the EU responded by slapping tariffs on items ‘Made in USA,’ it would hurt you only if your livelihood depended on those export revenues.
Of course, we may be headed toward a wider trade war, which could cause more general price inflation, hurting everyone in some way – though I think it will be more targeted at first.
But one group is sure to win in a trade war because demand for their services will skyrocket.
Who are these lucky people?
They aren’t people at all. They’re robots.
Trade Talks Fizzle
If you monitor trade and logistics news like I do, the signs are everywhere. Last week, US and Chinese negotiators met in Washington to cap the 100-day dialogue that Presidents Trump and Xi promised at their April summit.
It didn’t go well, apparently.

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on JULY 25, 2017.

The Central Banker Transition Is Happening Quietly In The Background – Episode 1341a

The following video was published by X22Report on Jul 25, 2017
Eight state have not recovered jobs since the great recession, we need to remember this is the manipulated job numbers. Case-Shiller reports prices for homes in the 20 cities have surpassed the housing bubble prior to 2008. Fed very worried about commercial real estate, apartment building are being built at an extremely fast pace. The Fed is pushing for a real-time payment system. The IMF has already hinted that they will most likely move their office to China within the next couple of years. The transition from one system to another is happening ever so quietly. The corporate media is now pushing the reason why the economy has been downgraded, its because of Trump.

Asian Metals Market Update: July-25-2017

Factors which can affect markets
Gold and silver need to break and trade over $1262 and $16.64 for another wave of rise. Sell off will be there if gold does not break $1262 and silver does not break $16.64. Trend after the FOMC statement will be the key. Cautious optimism for gold and silver despite the bullish technical. Crude oil seems to have formed a short term floor around $44 while copper seems to be in the race to outperform silver and zinc.
Any reduction in Trump related risk is the only key factor that can cause precious metals to move into a short term bearish phase. I still expect an October interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Whereas markets are factoring in a December interest rate hike. One needs to watch for Trump related news as US economy is on a strong footing. Mild slowdown in US economy (if any) will be cyclical due to advent of American summer driving season.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 July 2017.

Michael Kors Buys Jimmy Choo For $1.2 Billion

Michael Kors announced it has agreed to acquire iconic shoemaker Jimmy Choo for 896 million ($1.17 billion), as the US company seeks to offset slower growth in its core handbag business. As part of the recommended all cash acquisition the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Jimmy Choo will be acquired by JAG Acquisitions (Michael Kors Bidco), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Michael Kors.
Each scheme shareholder will receive 230p in cash for each Jimmy Choo share, valuing Jimmy Choo’s existing issued and to be issued ordinary share capital at just under $1.2 billion. The offer price of 230p is final and will not be increased, except that Michael Kors Bidco reserves the right to increase the amount of offer price if there is an announcement on or after date of this announcement of an offer or possible offer for Jimmy Choo by a third party offeror or potential offeror.
In a statement, Michael Kors described itself as ‘the ideal partner for Jimmy Choo,’ saying it would ‘support the growth of Jimmy Choo through retail store openings and further development of its online presence as well as through an expanded assortment of additional fashion product offerings.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 25, 2017.

S&P Futures Bounce As VIX Hammered, Europe “Euphoric”

After sliding to 3 month lows on “car cartel” concerns yesterday, European stocks have rebounded after three days of declines, while oil extended gains after Saudi export cuts, with Brent rising above $49 and WTI just shy of $47. Asian stocks fell while S&P futures rose 0.2% to 2,473, putting yesterday’s GOOGL drop on plunging Costs-Per-Click in the rearview mirror.
Helping today’s episode of global, pervasive complacency is the VIX which was hammered early by 3% in early Tuesday trading, down to 9.17. As previewed on Monday, the dollar rebounded after dropping to its lowest since August as investors await Wednesday’s U. S. interest rate decision; the greenback strength sent Gold lower for the first time in four days.
US TSYs sell-off in relatively heavy volume after a large futures block trade in London hours and Bunds decline as strong German IFO data weighs. The dollar rallied from overnight low against G-10 and UST move helps USD/JPY trade through yesterday’s high.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 25, 2017.

Wall of Optimism Cracking? IMF Lowers US Economic Growth Forecast

Over the last several years, mainstream analysts have built a wall of optimism about the US economy. ‘Everything looks great,’ they say. ‘Look at the jobs numbers!’ ‘Look at the stock market!’
A number of contrarians have said things aren’t so great and a massive crash is on the horizon. The mainstream has pretty much ignored the naysayers. But a recent report by the International Monetary Fund shows some cracks in the wall of mainstream optimism. And in the current political climate, it may not take much to cause the wall to crumble down.
The recent collapse of Republican efforts to reform healthcare has rekindled doubts about Trump’s ability to push through his ambitious economic agenda. The real concern is if enough people lose faith in the Republican’s ability to fix healthcare, reform the tax system, and pass a significant infrastructure spending bill, it will prick the stock market bubble and set off a crash.
It seems we’re beginning to see signs of doubt. On Monday, the IMF released its World Economic Outlook, featuring a downward revision in the economic growth forecast for the United States. The IMF estimated US growth at 2.1% both this year and next. In the April World Economic Outlook, it had forecast US growth of 2.3% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018.

This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 25, 2017.