For some still unknown reason, Goldman Sachs, the bank that single-handedly accounts for the bulk of Trump’s closest economic and financial advisors, and whose former COO has been reportedly tasked with hatching Trump’s “phenomenal” tax plan, has been on a tear in the past month to discredit his proposed political agenda. Just last week Goldman slammed Trump’s proposed economic plan, warning that unlike its earlier optimism, “one month into the year, the balance of risks is somewhat less positive in our view.” Goldman’s Jan Hatzius then gave three reasons why his outlook had soured substantially in just a few months:
First, the recent difficulty congressional Republicans have had in moving forward on Obamacare repeal does not bode well for reaching a quick agreement on tax reform or infrastructure funding, and reinforces our view that a fiscal boost, if it happens, is mostly a 2018 story. Second, while bipartisan cooperation looked possible on some issues following the election, the political environment appears to be as polarized as ever, suggesting that issues that require bipartisan support may be difficult to address. Third, some of the recent administrative actions by the Trump Administration serve as a reminder that the president is likely to follow through on campaign promises Now, in yet another note from Goldman over the weekend, the bank’s Washington analyst Alec Phillips breaks down the “Fiscal Constraints on the Political Agenda” and lays out why, despite Trump’s intention to announce “something phenomenal on taxes in the next 2-3 weeks“, a statement which promptly boosted stocks to new all time highs, the reality is far different, and that between Trump’s tax plans and various other aspects of the president’s fiscal agenda, the most likely outcome will be imminent disappointment as the plan begins to move through Congress where it is about to hit major roadblocks.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Feb 12, 2017.