The S&P Has Now Gone 36 Days Without A 1% Intraday Move: The Longest Streak In History

Heading into Monday’s session, the S&P had gone for 34 consecutive trading sessions in which it hadn’t experienced an intraday move greater than 1%: according to the WSJ’s Market Data Group, this was the longest such streak going back over two decades, to 1995. And, following the Monday close, the market made history when it ended yet another day by being confined to a 1% trading range. This made it 35 consecutive sessions without an intraday move of 1% or more. With Tuesday’s somnolent market action and virtually unchanged close, the streak extended to 36 consecutive sessions – the longest streak in history.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Feb 7, 2017.

“It’s A Disgrace” Trump Slams Democrats For “Obstructing” His Cabinet

President Trump is frustrated, that is clear. His cabinet remains half (or more) empty as the third week of his reign begins, and he has only one ‘thing’ to blame…
It is a disgrace that my full Cabinet is still not in place, the longest such delay in the history of our country. Obstruction by Democrats!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 8, 2017

However, President Trump has some alternative facts as there have been many nominees who have been forced to wait considerably longer for their confirmation…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Feb 7, 2017.

Goldman Stunned By Collapse In Gasoline Demand: “This Would Require A US Recession”

While energy traders remain focused on weekly changes in crude supply and demand, manifesting in shifts in inventory of which today’s API data, which showed the second biggest inventory build in history, was a breathtaking example of how OPEC’s “production cut” is clearly not working, a much more troubling datapoint was revealed by the Energy Information Administration last week when it reported implied gasoline demand.
To be sure, surging gasoline supply and inventories are hardly surprising or new: they remain a byproduct of the unprecedented global crude inventories leftover from two years of failed OPEC policy which resulted in a historic glut. Last January, overall crude runs were up 500,000 bpd as refiners shifted away from diesel and other products to gasoline to chase more attractive margins amid a mild winter and sluggish diesel demand. The move led to an overbuild of gasoline stocks that lingered into the summer, punishing margins when they should have been at their strongest. This January, crude runs are at historic levels, up by roughly 300,000 bpd over last year.
So yes, both gasoline stocks and supply remains at extremely high levels, but what set off alarm bells is not supply, but demand: the EIA last week reported that the 4-week average of gasoline supplied – or implied gasoline demand – in the United States was 8.2 million barrels per day, the lowest since February 2012. And, as Reuters adds, U. S. refiners are now facing the prospects of weakening gasoline demand for the first time in five years.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Feb 7, 2017.

Yuan Extends Plunge After PBOC Weakens Fix To 3-Week Lows

After rising non-stop during Golden Week, offshore Yuan is tumbling (down almost 500 pips) since the Chinese came back from vacation (and Bitcoin is soaring). Tonight’s drop was predicated on a notable weakening by the PBOC, pushing the fix to its lowest since Jan 17th.
*CHINA SETS YUAN FIXING AT 6.8849 VS 6.8604 DAY EARLIER *PBOC SETS YUAN DAILY FIXING AT WEAKEST SINCE JAN. 17

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Feb 7, 2017.

Everything Is Almost In Place, The Economic Crisis Is About To Begin – Episode 1198a

The following video was published by X22Report on Feb 7, 2017
Greece is getting to default on the debt, countries are setting up parallel system to protect themselves. German industrial production plunges most since 2009. The pace of hiring has slowed, those allegedly quitting has slowed. We are the downward slide into a depression. Atlanta Fed is already cutting GDP. Tax receipts on a federal and state level are continue to decline which shows the jobs numbers are fake. Trump is preparing the economy for a reset, the elite want to bring it down to blame it on him, the battle is on.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Snap Crackle and iPlop

Disney missed after the bell.
The Snapchat IPO is lumbering towards the market.
Sometimes they do ring a bell.
The precious metals were off a bit, but held their ground fairly well.
There has not been much in the way of economic news.
The Street is only going to be able to carry this market while the organic volumes remain low, and the bulk of the trading continues to be milliseconds worth of spoofing and arbitrage. That sort of ‘liquidity’ melts in the face of real selling.
Trump is going to own the next financial crisis. He is setting himself up for it rather tidily, whether he deserves it or not.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 07 FEBRUARY 2017.

FEB 7/ANOTHER MASSIVE ‘DEPOSIT’ OF GOLD INTO THE GLD OF 8.30 TONNES/NO CHANGE IN SLV/GOLD AND SILVER REFUSE TO BUCKLE UNDER THE CARTEL PUNISHING SHORTS/ITALY’S UNICREDIT UNDERGOING A REFINACING W…

Gold at (1:30 am est) $1234.20 UP $4.20
silver at $17.73: up 6 cents
Access market prices:
Gold: $1234.00
Silver: $17.70
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est last night and 2:15 am est early this morning
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
TUESDAY gold fix Shanghai
Shanghai FIRST morning fix Feb 7/17 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1238.64
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1232.20 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/premium $6.44
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Shanghai SECOND afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1241.64
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1233.45 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)
SPREAD/ 2ND FIX TODAY!!: $8.19
China rejects NY pricing of gold as a fraud/arbitrage will now commence fully
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
London FIRST Fix: Feb7/2017: 5:30 am est: $1231.00 (NY: same time: $1229.50 (5:30AM)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
London Second fix Feb 7.2017: 10 am est: $1231.00 (NY same time: $1231.60 (10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on February 7, 2017.

According to ‘Unmassaged Data’ the US Economy is Rolling Over

Yet another ‘unmassaged’ data point has shown that the US economy is rolling over.
If you’ve been reading me for a while you know that one of my biggest pet peeves is the fact that headline US economic data (GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, etc.) is massaged to the point of being fiction.
For this reason, in order to get a real read on the economy, you have to look for economic metrics that are unpopular enough that the beancounters don’t bother adjusting them.
Case in point, look at the latest employment trend for S&P 500 companies (H/T Sam Ro).

This post was published at GoldSeek on 7 February 2017.

As Breakevens Plummet, The Narrative Has Reset

For those following the progression, and most recently – unwind – of the Trump reflation narrative, below are some critical observations from Charlie McElligott, head of cross-asset strategy at RBC.
Big Picture: Narrative Reset
On January 11th, I highlighted the risks developing via a potential breakdown of the USD–specifically as it related to its role as ‘chief proxy’ for the ‘reflation’ trade. Since that time, we have seen the Bloomberg Dollar TWI -2.4%, and with it, reversals in popular ‘reflation’ trades despite BOTH flat benchmark S&P stock index and US 10Y yields over this period: ‘cyclical’ equities have lagged ‘defensive’ equities / ‘long duration’ significantly; ‘value’ has lagged ‘growth;’ ‘small cap’ has lagged ‘large cap;’ ‘momentum’ and ‘anti-beta’ factor market neutral strategies are significantly outperforming Q4 leaders ‘value’ and ‘size;’ popular ‘long copper’ significantly underperforming popular ‘short gold’; crowded ‘EM shorts’ squeezing higher (from EEM to EMFX); popular short EUR 1.1% over this window et cetera.
Again, the thought was that these crowded trades needed to see some of the froth come out…and that is exactly what has happened. Today we see more of the same, with popular Q4 longs like ‘value,’ ‘high beta’ equities, HY, ‘small cap,’ ‘early cycle,’ ‘copper’ and ‘cyclicals’ all down sharply while popular Q4 shorts / ‘sources of funds’ like ‘long duration,’ ‘low vol’ stocks, ‘defensives’ and ‘growth’ all squeezed higher.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Feb 7, 2017.

German Industrial Production Plunges Most Since 2009

Just day after President Trump suggests Germany is a currency manipulator, and as Merkel looks set to lose her Chancellorship, Europe’s powerhouse economy just collapsed in December. Industrial production plunged 3.0% MoM in December – the biggest drop since Jan 2009 and over 8 standard deviations below expectations.
As Boomberg details, the figure excluding construction, which is comparable to the industrial production data reported by Eurostat, declined by an even greater 3.1%. The contraction was largely driven by capital goods, which subtracted 2 percentage points from the headline figure.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Feb 7, 2017.

This Is How Out-Of-Whack US Trade Relationships Really Are

After 25 years of apathy.
2016 marked another banner year for US trade, a banner year largely for other countries that at the initiative of Corporate America, whose supply chains weave all over the world, managed to load the US up with their merchandise. According to the Commerce Department’s report today, the US trade deficit in goods and services rose to $502.3 billion in 2016, the highest in four years.
Exports of goods and services fell $52 billion in 2016 year-over-year to $2.21 trillion, and imports fell $50 billion to $2.71 trillion. That both exports and imports fell is a sign of weakening world trade, lackluster demand globally, and lousy economic growth in the US, where GDP in 2016 inched up by a miserable 1.6%, matching the growth rate of 2011, both having been the lowest growth rates since 2009.
Exports add to the economy and to GDP; imports subtract from GDP. And it’s a big number: the trade deficit in 2016 amounted to 2.7% of GDP. In overly simplified, scribbled-on-a-napkin-after-the-third-beer math: had trade been balanced, with imports about equal to exports, GDP growth would have been 2.7 percentage points higher in 2016. So 4.3%! OK, we’re dreaming. But that’s how a massive trade deficit whacks the economy.

This post was published at Wolf Street on Feb 7, 2017.

Trump Offers To “Destroy Career” Of Texas State Senator At Meeting With National Sheriffs’ Assoc.

Feb 7, 2017 3:24 PM
Earlier today President Trump met with the National Sheriff’s Association at the White House. The visit was supposed to be just another friendly meet and greet, but it took a slightly awkward turn when President Trump offered to “destroy the career” of a Texas state senator who is allegedly promoting a piece of legislation that would benefit Mexican drug cartels.
During the meeting, Rockwall County, Texas, Sheriff Harold Eavenson told President Trump about a piece of asset forfeiture legislation he believes would aid Mexican drug cartels…here’s the full conversation:
Eavenson: “There’s a state senator in Texas that was talking about legislation to require conviction before we could receive that forfeiture money.”
Trump: “Do you believe that?”
Eavenson: “And I told him that the cartel would build a monument to him in Mexico if he could get that legislation passed.”
Trump: “Who is that state senator? I want to hear his name. We’ll destroy his career…”
And here is the conversation caught on tape:

This post was published at Zero Hedge by Tyler Durden /.

Seth Klarman Warns Trump’s “Erratic, Overconfidence” Could End Dollar Hegemony

“Can we say when it will end? No. Can we say that it will end? Yes,” noted Baupost’s Seth Klarman in the past, warning “And when it ends and the trend reverses, here is what we can say for sure. Few will be ready. Few will be prepared.’
It appears that moment is nigh, as NYT Dealbook reports the 59-year-old value investing legend – who manages $30 billion – is following in the footsteps of Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio (who recently flip-flopped on Trumphoria), and Bill Gross, reinforcing a countervailing view to the euphoria that has buoyed the stock market since Mr. Trump took office, describing ‘perilously high valuations.’
‘Exuberant investors have focused on the potential benefits of stimulative tax cuts, while mostly ignoring the risks from America-first protectionism and the erection of new trade barriers,’ he wrote.
‘President Trump may be able to temporarily hold off the sweep of automation and globalization by cajoling companies to keep jobs at home, but bolstering inefficient and uncompetitive enterprises is likely to only temporarily stave off market forces,’ he continued. ‘While they might be popular, the reason the U. S. long ago abandoned protectionist trade policies is because they not only don’t work, they actually leave society worse off.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Feb 7, 2017.

Michael Kors hit by US shopping mall desertion (low wage growth and Amazon killing malls)

According to the Financial Times, Weak shopping mall traffic continues to wreak havoc on major US retailers, with Michael Kors the latest to cut its sales and profit forecasts as it struggles to battle dwindling consumer visits to US suburban centres.
Shares in the high-end clothes and accessories retailer tumbled by more than 15 per cent, the most in nearly two years, as it also reported a bigger-than-expected drop in a key sales metric for its fiscal third quarter.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on February 7, 2017.