It all started about three years ago when we first advised readers who were inclined to so gamble, that the only way to win in a rigged, maipulated market, one in which central bankers are now Chief Restructuring Officers and will not allow even a modest correction to asset prices, that the easiest way to generate “alpha” was to go long the most hated names.
Then, in mid-February, just as the market had bottomed and was about to unleash a historic short squeeze, we had a follow up article, in which we explained in very simple terms “how to outperform most hedge funds in 2016.”
The answer is simple: as we have said on many occasions in the past year, simply do the opposite of what hedge funds are doing. As the market rotated away from momentum and popular positions, the stocks least owned by hedge funds soared. Goldman’s Low Concentration Basket (GSTHHFSL) consists of the S&P 500 firms with the smallest share of market cap owned by hedge funds. This strategy has posted a mediocre historical performance record, outperforming the S&P 500 in 53% of quarters since 2001. This year, however, the basket has outperformed the S&P 500 by 541 bp (0% vs. -6%) and outperformed by nearly 9 pp during the past six months, equating to its strongest six-month return outside of 2008 and 2002. Investors who believe hedge funds are wrong and will remain directionally wrong and who wish to own equity risk but remain relatively insulated from the volatility caused by changes in hedge fund positioning should find this basket attractive. New constituents include ORCL, CVX, and UPS.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 05/20/2016.