15/11/2014: Emerging Markets Rot Drives Russian Economic Uncertainty

Jon Blogosphere, Economy, Geopolitics, Market Commentary, Politics

Some interesting data from the Policy Uncertainty Index for Russia (see I traced out the main news markers over the period covered by the index (click on the chart to enlarge):

Note: higher values of Index, greater attention to the domestic economic and economic policy uncertainty in the media.
There is a clear pattern of rising policy uncertainty from, roughly speaking, early 2008, with both geopolitical risks (Georgia conflict) and economic risks (the 2009 recession) as well as internal political risks (2012 elections) all coincident with amplification in uncertainty. Ukraine crisis period is clearly only comparable in uncertainty with the last Yeltsin elections (which almost lost to the Communist Party candidate).

This post was published at True Economics on Saturday, November 15, 2014.