Here is the consensus for the key numbers the BLS will report at 8:30am ET on Friday morning
March Nonfarm Payrolls Exp. 180K, the lowest print of 2017 (Prey. 235K, Jan. 227K) US Unemployment Rate (Mar) M/M Exp. 4.7% (Prey. 4.7%, Jan. 4.7%) Average Hourly Earnings Exp. 0.20% (Prey. 0.20%, Jan. 0.30%) Big Picture: Friday’s non-farm payrolls comes ahead of the May 2-3rd Fed meeting, where according to Fed Fund markets there is only a 5% chance of a 25bps hike The Fed’s favoured inflation metric (PCE) edged above the mandated 2% Y/Y in February and inflation remains under the spotlight where the rate hike path is concerned. As such, once the fast money moves subside, as has been the case in the past several months, the focus may well fall on the average hourly earnings to see If the uptick in inflation is holding up. This is particularly the given the February report showed real personal spending pulling back slightly by 0.1%, when a 0.1% increase was forecasted. Last report showed AHE dipping to 0.2% from 0.3% in January’s print and a return to Jan’s levels could indicate that a slightly more optimistic outlook on inflation is justified. Its worth noting that this report comes amid a backdrop of bad weather and temporary headwinds are factored in.
Goldman’s payolls forecast is even more dour, as economist Spencer Hill says the bank estimates nonfarm payrolls increased 170k in March, compared to consensus of 180k and February’s 235k increase. The factor behind the potential donwside surprise are a “significant drag from unseasonable winter weather, which we believe may have boosted February payroll growth by 30-50k and could weigh on March growth by as much as 30-60k.” Some more details on the adverse weather impact:
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 7, 2017.
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