APRIL 21/SILVER AND GOLD HAVE BEEN WHACKED EVERY DAY THIS WEEK/COMEX SILVER’S OI AGAIN REACHES ANOTHER RECORD LEVEL OF JUST UNDER 235,000 CONTRACTS/GOLD REBOUNDS UP NICELY BY $5.50 TODAY BUT SILV…

Gold: $1287.40 UP $5.50
Silver: $17.83 DOWN 16 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1284.60
silver: $17.94!!!
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SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1288.80 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: 1280.50
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.30
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1288.50
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: 1279,95
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$8.55
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1281.50
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1281.25
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1281.85
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1282.85 ????
For comex gold:
APRIL/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 51 NOTICE(S) FOR 5100 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 718 FOR 71800 OZ (2.233 TONNES)
For silver:
For silver: APRIL
0 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 892 for 4,460,000 oz
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END
The open interest in silver continues to advance with today’s reading at 234,787 contracts a new record) or about 11000 contracts ABOVE the record set last year AND 6000 CONTRACTS ABOVE THE RECORD SET YESTERDAY. It seems that the boys want to attack our precious metals as they are quite nervous about silver and its gigantic high OI for the front month of May.
Our precious metals will be under much pressure from today until Friday April 28 as we enter options expiry week
Comex options expiry Tuesday night. LBMA/OTC options Friday morning at around 11 am
Let us have a look at the data for today

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on April 21, 2017.

Watch Live: Trump Signs Executive Orders On Corporate Inversions and Dodd-Frank Regulations

As pressure mounts on Trump to post some victories within the totally arbitrary window of the “First 100 Days” of his administration, the President just joined Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to sign a combination of executive orders and memos targeting the reduction of tax regulations and certain components of Dodd-Frank. As we noted earlier, the executive orders and memos signed today are expected to (i) initiate a review and potential unwind of executive orders signed by Obama in 2016 to limit corporate inversions and (ii) initiate a thorough review of the orderly liquidation authority granted to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) under Dodd-Frank.
TRUMP: THIS REGULATORY REDUCTION IS FIRST STEP TO TAX REFORM TRUMP: 2 DIRECTIVES WILL REVIEW DAMAGE OF DODD-FRANK REGS MNUCHIN: WE’RE FOCUSED ON ACHEIVING COMPREHENSIVE TAX REFORM MNUCHIN: REVIEW IS THOROUGH AND WILL DELIVER FINDINGS IN JUNE MNUCHIN: WE’LL SEE IF FSOC AND OLA RULES IN PLACE MAKE SENSE

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 21, 2017.

Risk Parity Lashes Out At Paul Tudor Jones’ Apocalyptic Forecast

In addition to Paul Tudor Jones making headlines overnight with his comments during a closed-door GSAM session, in which he warned that Yellen “should be terrified” by some of the market’s key valuation metrics, he went so far as to predict what trading strategist would blow up the market and cause the next crash when volatility returns.
‘Risk parity,’ Jones told the Goldman audience, ‘will be the hammer on the downside.’
PTJ is not the first one to blame risk-parity funds of crashing the market: Both Omega’s Leon Cooperman and especially JPM’s Marco Kolanovic famously repeated on several occasions that the greatest “crash catalyst” facing the market is, you guessed it, risk-parity.
The two have good reasons to be skeptical: as we first reported in September of 2015, it was a risk-parity meltdown in mid-August that catalyzed the ETFlash crash of August 24, 2015, sending the VIX so high, the CME admitted the calculation had malfunctioned and the VIX was offline for nearly an hour. This is what Bank of America reported at the time:
The volatile sell-off in global equities from Thursday August 20th through Tuesday August 24th, alongside a relatively muted diversification benefit from fixed income, led many risk parity funds to suffer a sudden and sharp drawdown over the four-day period (Chart 1). The performance drawdown and subsequent spike in the volatility of risk parity funds likely triggered a significant deleveraging in their assets.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 21, 2017.

Money In America

In 1830, France was once more swept up in revolution, only this time at the end of it was installed one king to replace another. Louis-Phillipe became, in fact, France’s last king as a result of that July Revolution. The country was trying to make sense of its imperial past with the growing democratic sentiments of the 19th century. Despite being one of the richest men in all Europe and aligned with the Bourbons, he was Duke of Orleans and married to a Neapolitan princess, the reign of Louis-Phillipe I was supposed to be a milder form of dominion, the so-called citizen king or bourgeois monarch.
Caught up in the upheaval of 1830 were many who had been aligned with the deposed Charles X. Because the citizen king was viewed as a usurper throughout much of France, his time on the throne tended to be more repressive, particularly toward those who had at least been in the Charles court and government. Among them was a Versailles lawyer named Gustave de Beaumont, who, sensing that the political winds had shifted despite the grand upheaval toward (outwardly, at least) more liberal sentiments, gained permission to get out of the country.
Beaumont would travel to the United States ostensibly to study in grand and comprehensive detail its penal system. He set out in April 1831 taking with him a young 25-year old friend, a former magistrate who had similarly found himself of disfavor under the bourgeois monarch. The two landed in Rhode Island and traveled all over the country doing quite a bit more investigation than strictly prison life in the United States. It was, in fact, an examination of this country’s political soul.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on April 21, 2017.

Silver, Platinum and Palladium as Investments – Research Shows Diversification Benefits

– Silver, platinum and palladium see increased role as investment vehicles
– Increase in academic output on the white precious metals is in line with this
– Silver and particularly gold are safe haven assets
– Silver was a safe haven at times during which gold failed to be
– Platinum and palladium less so but have diversification benefits
– Silver manipulation is possible and indications of, if not legal proof
– Benefits platinum and palladium could provide as money not been fully addressed
– Main focus in investment drivers is price – not on drivers of physical demand
– Platinum, palladium and silver have different relationships with other assets and divergent abilities in hedging risk
– White precious metal investors should employ a buy-and-hold strategy
– Silver markets have become more efficient since 1977
– White precious metals are increasing in investment importance
– Research shows hedging role and diversification benefits of precious metals
by Jan Skoyles, Editor Mark O’Byrne
A review of the academic literature on the financial economics of silver, platinum and palladium has recently been conducted by Vigne, Lucey, O’Connor and Yarovaya.
***
The review surveys and covers the findings on a wide variety of topics in relation to the White Precious Metals including Market Efficiency, Forecast-ability, Behavioral Findings, Diversification Benefits, Volatility Drivers, Macroeconomic Determinants, and their relationships with other assets.
For those asking whether or not they should invest in precious metals or to increase their allocation, it can be of use to read some academic research into the role the white metals can play in hedging risk in their investment and pension portfolios. There are many strongly held opinions regarding gold and silver and precious metals and some mathematical and economic analysis can go a long way in helping us to understand how and why we should consider investing in these less popular precious metals.

This post was published at Gold Core on April 21, 2017.

Price of Gold in 2017 Still Beating the Dow Jones Despite Weekly Drop

Despite a slight decline this week, the price of gold in 2017 is still outperforming the stock market. Gold is up 11.5% on the year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is only up 4.1%.
Even with this week’s drop, gold prices made the significant move of steadying above their multi-month resistance level around $1,260.
When gold pushed above that level for the first time last week, I asked if it would be enough to sustain its new heights. Since then, we’ve seen the gold price pop to $1,294, but then pull back to a low of $1,275 intraday.
Despite some bullish factors like a strong seasonal upward trend and geopolitical tensions, I said I thought we could see some near-term weakness first.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on April 21, 2017.

WTF Just Happened?

Just as VIX broke back above 15.00, The Dow and USDJPY suddenly air-pocketed seemingly out of nowhere… no news/fundamental catalyst as usual.
***
All the big banks tumbled at the same time…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 21, 2017.

Stocks Jump As Trump Promises Plan For “Biggest Tax Cut Ever” Next Week (Again)

It’s deja vu all over again…
*TRUMP SAYS HE WILL UNVEIL TAX PLAN NEXT WK: AP *TRUMP SAYS PLAN TO INCLUDE `MASSIVE’ CUT FOR COS., INDIVIDUALS And the machines fell for it…
***
As AP reports, President Donald Trump says businesses and individuals will receive a “massive tax cut” under a tax reform package he plans to unveil next week.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Trump says the plan will result in tax cuts for both individuals and businesses. He would not provide details of the plan, saying only that the tax cuts will be “bigger I believe than any tax cut ever.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 21, 2017.

The last time this happened the market crashed

A few days ago Charles Schwab, the investment brokerage firm, announced that the number of new brokerage accounts soared 44% during the first quarter of 2017.
More specifically, Schwab stated that individual investors are opening up stock trading accounts at the fastest pace the company has seen in 17 years.
17 years.
Anyone remember what happened 17 years ago?
Oh right. The Dot-com bubble burst.
After years of unbelievable gains in the 1990s, the NASDAQ Composite index peaked at 5,132.52 on March 10, 2000.
Simultaneously, during the first quarter of 2000, investors were rushing to open new brokerage accounts invest their savings in the stock market.

This post was published at Sovereign Man on April 21, 2017.

Gorsuch Casts First Major Tie-Breaking Vote Allowing Arkansas Executions To Proceed

In what will undoubtedly be a memorable first major tie-breaking vote as a Supreme Court Judge, Neil Gorsuch cast the deciding vote last night to allow Arkansas to begin executing a group of 8 death-row inmates. The decision came after attorneys for the State of Arkansas sought an expedited process to allow for the executions to proceed before their lethal-injection drugs expire at the end of April. Per Bloomberg:
In a series of orders Thursday night, the high court cleared the state to execute Ledell Lee, one of eight convicted murderers that Arkansas has been trying to put to death before one of its lethal-injection drugs expires at the end of the month. Associated Press later reported the execution had been carried out.
‘Apparently the reason the state decided to proceed with these eight executions is that the ‘use by’ date of the state’s execution drug is about to expire,” Breyer wrote. “That factor, when considered as a determining factor separating those who live from those who die, is close to random.”
Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan also voted to block the executions.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 21, 2017.

Existing Home Sales Rise 4.4% In March, Median Prices Over $750K Growing At >30%

Ah, Spring is here and existing home sales rose 4.4% in March.
While existing home sales are still around pre-bubble levels (2002), the median price of existing home sales are now above the peak of the housing bubble.
***
Climbing median prices with slowly recoverying existing home sales? How about lack of inventory as a suspect. Inventory of existing homes is still around 2000/2001 levels.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on April 21, 2017.

21/4/17: Millennials, Property ‘Ladders’ and Defaults

In a recent report, titled ‘Beyond the Bricks: The meaning of home’, HSBC lauded the virtues of the millennials in actively pursuing purchases of homes. Mind you – keep in mind the official definition of the millennials as someone born 1981 and 1998, or 28-36 years of age (the age when one is normally quite likely to acquire a mortgage and their first property).

This post was published at True Economics on Friday, April 21, 2017.

Market Thoughts And Forecast From The Legendary Robert Prechter

In a recent interview I conducted with the legendary market technician Robert Prechter, he offered some very interesting insights into how he views today’s market, along with his perspective on socionomics. He also provides us with a general forecast as to how he sees the market playing out in the coming decade.
How did you come across Elliott wave analysis? My dad subscribed to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters, and he would occasionally forward his copies to me. In 1968, Russell began writing about A. J. Frost’s Elliott wave work. He published wave interpretations for the Dow off and on through late 1974, when he called the end of the bear market. During that time, I began charting gold and gold stocks, labeling the waves. After I became a professional technician at Merrill Lynch in 1975, I went on a search for Elliott’s original books, which were published in ring binders. The Library of Congress didn’t have them. Finally, I found copies on microfilm in the New York Public Library. It was a thrill coming across those listings on library cards. In 1980, I republished Elliott’s original books and articles in what is now called R. N. Elliott’s Masterworks. Later I published all of Bolton’s, Frost’s and Russell’s Elliott wave writings along with bios and notes. In case you know any Elliott wave fanatics who want these books, my staff set up a discount page good through May here.
2a. This question is simply asking for your perspective on how markets have changed – if at all – over the decades in which you have been analyzing Elliott waves.
Markets have changed in superficial ways but not in any essential way. They still trace out Elliott waves. But that doesn’t mean it has been easy. Wave V from 1974 has been unusually large in both price and time relative to waves I and III. The closest thing to it in the record is the 1932-1937 rise, in which wave five lasted 15 times as long as wave one. Also, from 1987 to 2007, pullbacks were shallow and skewed upward in the Dow and S&P, which threw me off.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Friday, 21 April 2017.

Analyst Who Predicted Trump’s Rise Bets On Le Pen Victory

Don’t bank on a relief rally in the euro area anytime soon…
“Le Pen’s momentum is a slow-moving reaction against the men of Davos – as we have seen with Brexit and Trump – but markets don’t want to believe it.”
That’s the conclusion drawn by Charles Gave, founder of Hong-Kong based asset-allocation consultancy GaveKal Research, who, as Bloomberg reports, predicted the triumph of Donald Trump in the U. S. election, and is now betting on a win for the anti-euro National Front candidate.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 21, 2017.

OPEC Rumor-Mill Utterly Fails – Oil Tumbles On Production-Cut Deal Extension Chatter

Just as Reuters’ John Kemp warned, it seems the hedge funds have abandoned OPEC. In the good ol’ days (of the last year), one mention of production cut deal extensions, or high production cut compliance rates, would have been enough to see levered buying with both hands and feet, self-reinforcing the ‘success’ of OPEC’s plan. Today – that failed!
WTI plunges below $50 and we tweet that OPEC is due any time now…
OPEC headline generator activated
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 21, 2017

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 21, 2017.

Trump Administration Begins Quiet Preparations For Government Shutdown

Even as Donald Trump is desperate to show to the US population, and especially his voter base, some actual achievement before his first 100 days run out next weekend, prompting him to tell AP that he will unveil a “tremendous” tax ut plan next week (recall he did the same in February), the Trump administration is quietly preparing for the possibility of a government shutdown, even though the president and his staff believe one is unlikely to occur.
As a reminder, the government will shut down midnight on April 28 if Congress cannot agree on a spending bill. As reported over the past week, the measure hit various snags over Trump’s demands to include funding for Trump’s border wall and a debate over money for an ObamaCare insurer subsidy program, both programs which virtually assure the spending bill will not pass.
As a result, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has begun to coordinate with government agencies to plan for a possible shutdown. ‘While we do not expect a lapse, prudence and common sense require routine assessments will be made,’ OMB Director Mick Mulvaney said in a statement.
The office set up a phone call to go over the agencies’ shutdown plans, which could include steps such as furloughs for federal workers. The OMB said the plans were reviewed ahead of a possible shutdown last December and are unlikely to be revised.
As Compass Point analyst Isaac Boltansky, notes, “wall funding is just one of many policy potholes that could disrupt negotiations, including ACA cost-sharing subsidies, coal miner benefits, sanctuary cities.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 21, 2017.

Past few days a fractal event for the gold market…

‘In the absence of a credible monetary standard, we expect no escape from the treadmill of rising debt, both US and globally, that outpaces economic growth. Income inequality, wage stagnation, overvaluation of financial assets, and speculation instead of productive investment are likely to be prolonged under the current monetary regime. Whether or not policy makers take a proactive approach to address monetary reform, the fact remains that gold is massively underpriced in all paper currencies. It would be preferable if the necessary adjustments could occur without a repeat of a 2008-like financial crisis. We give this possibility a chance, albeit slim. In any event, we expect a significant repricing of gold higher during the current administration, either by design or because of market events. Whenever a repricing happens, we expect broad grassroots support for that outcome.’ – John Hathaway, Tocqueville Funds
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The past few days illustrate an important event in the gold market that both beginning and accomplished investors should try to understand thoroughly. I say that because by such an understanding you will become a more educated, patient and successful gold owner.
On April 19th, over $3 billion in paper gold was sold in the London over-the-counter market instantaneously dropping the gold price by $14 per ounce in a matter of minutes. Just as quickly, the cries of foul play rose among gold punditry across the internet. Just before the ‘hit’ gold was trading in the $1286 range. It plunged to $1272. Since early this morning’s AM London Fix, gold has been recovery mode and it is now trading again in the $1286 range. Except for those who took the drop as a buying opportunity, these events will be seen essentially as a sound and fury signifying nothing. At the same time, quietly the notion of gold’s indestructibility has been reinforced, not so much with respect to its physical qualities, but with the place it occupies in the minds of investors across the globe. The recovery today in a certain sense is a fractal event in both amplitude and duration – a hint of a greater manifestation that might be coming down the road in the not too distant future.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Friday, 21 April 2017.