Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Puzzling Evidence

You got the CBS…!
And the ABC…!
You got Time and Newsweek!
Well, they’re the same to me!
Now don’t you wanna get right with me?
Puzzling evidence
I hope you get everything you need
Puzzling Evidence
Puzzling evidence
Puzzling evidence
Puzzling evidence
Done hardened in your heart.
Talking Heads, Puzzling Evidence
The Nasdaq big cap techs have powered up to a new all time high. Looking a little parabolic there guys, even if the prospects of repatriating all that cash stashed in overseas tax havens can come back to your pockets for acquisitions, dividends, and stock buybacks.
Alphabet, the behemoth formerly known as Google, has about $50 billion in cash sitting overseas.
I happened to notice today the the year over year growth in the MZM money stock has fallen to its lowest level since it bottomed in 2010 in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 27 April 2017.

Goldman Sachs Prepares to ‘Better Weather Future Disasters’

Regular prudent savers & government guarantees to the fore.
Wouldn’t it be great if a big hedge fund could borrow for five years at a fixed rate of 2.05%, just barely above the cost that the US government pays for five-year debt (1.81%)? It’s especially great considering that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is 2.4%. In real terms, the rate on this five-year loan would be negative.
Or borrow at 1% daily rate? This would be way below the rate of inflation. And on the rare occasion that creditors gang up on you and try to get their money back all at once, the Fed steps in as lender of last resort. You can rely on that. So no biggie.
You could lend this money out at 5% or 7% or, if you’re into credit cards, at 21%, for example, and keep the difference. Or better, you could bet with this money on the riskiest trades, some of them long-term illiquid deals that might take a decade or longer to unwind. Or you could play with highly leveraged derivatives.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Wolf Richter ‘ Apr 27, 2017.

The Most Hated Bull Market in History: Update

The PM complex has been taking up most of my time the last couple of weeks so tonight I would like to update you on some of the stock market indexes. No matter how one wants to spin it the US stock markets have been in a bull market since 2009 by any trading discipline. It has climbed the proverbial wall of worry which is needed to create such a dynamic bull market. Most of the charts will be long term in nature which puts the bull market in perspective.
The first chart is a 20 year monthly chart for the INDU which shows you ‘The most hated Bull Market in History’. Below the INDU chart is just a plain chart for Gold with no annotations on it. One is in a bull market and the other isn’t. Where has your money been ?

This post was published at GoldSeek on 27 April 2017.

Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Wary of Auto Loans, Pack Them in Bonds (The Secret of NIM)

Yes, we are seeing the offloading of risk assets into structured bonds … again.
(Bloomberg) – Matt Scully – Depending whose money they’re using, Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. either love subprime car loans or fear them.
Both banks have grown more reluctant to make new subprime loans using money from their own balance sheets. Wells Fargo tightened its underwriting standards and slashed the volume of all loans it made to car buyers in the first quarter by 29 percent after greater numbers of borrowers fell behind on payments. JPMorgan’s consumer and community banking head Gordon Smith earlier this year said the bank had cut its new lending for subprime auto loans ‘dramatically.’
At the same time the firms are indirectly funding billions of dollars of the loans by helping companies like Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc. borrow in the asset-backed securities market, essentially shunting money from bond investors to finance companies. Wall Street banks packaged more loans from finance companies into bonds in the first quarter than the same period last year, and Wells Fargo and JPMorgan remained two of the top underwriters of the securities.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B Sanders ‘ April 27, 2017.

Rickards: Trump Tax Plan is a ‘Sideshow’

Jim Rickards joined Sky News Australia while speaking from New York City he delved into the expectations of the Trump tax plan proposals, what the political landscape shows the general public and how the market could react.
When asked about his read on the proposed ‘largest tax reform in U. S history’ Rickards did not hold back. ‘In a carnival or circus you used to have something called a side show. It would have funny acts with sword swallowers, flame swallowers or living mermaids. I view this whole thing as a side show. I don’t think that analysts should take it very literally. I think it is very difficult for viewers outside of the United States to understand. Most democratically elected parliamentary systems operate under where when the Prime Minister directs something, if they have a working majority, it becomes the law. While there is usually some debate, the leadership typically gets what they want.’


This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on April 27, 2017.

JPM Cuts Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.3%

While we wait to see if the Atlanta Fed will cut its final Q1 GDP estimate ahead of tomorrow’s official print to 0% or negative, here comes JPM which after slashing its Q1 GDP tracker from 0.6% to 0.4% yesterday, having started the quarter – like most others on Wall Street – at 3%, just trimmed its Q1 GDP estimate to the lowest yet, at just 0.3%.
Here is the full note from JPM’s Daniel Silver
We now believe that real GDP increased 0.3% saar in 1Q. This incorporates the various source data that were released this morning as well as a correction to our treatment of the annual revision to the retail sales data that was released yesterday. The updated details of our forecast are in the table below.
In terms of the retail sales data, it appears that this year the BEA will not incorporate the updated figures until the May GDP report, so this Friday’s GDP release will be based on an older vintage of retail sales data. Reverting to the older data, we think Friday’s GDP report will show real consumption at 0.9% saar.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 27, 2017.

Former Central Banker Just Signaled That The Economy Is About To Crash – Episode 1265a

The following video was published by X22Report on Apr 27, 2017
The Canadian housing market is popping their is already a bailout to save a mortgage company. Initial jobless claims inch up. Consumers are tapped out, credit defaults on the rise. Pending home sales decline and they have been flat-line for years. Durable goods decline. GDP is estimate has now dropped to .2%, this is terrible. Trump flips on NAFTA, he is now going to negotiate it first, if it does not work then he will make the move to remove it. Trump says the Government my shutdown. The Government has shutdown in the past and the people didn’t even notice. Bernanke says not to worry. Everyone should be worried now. Duterte is now getting rid if the Rothschild banking system. Trump trying another round of health care.

APRIL 27/GOLD STEADY AT $1263.70/ SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS BUT LOWER IN ACCESS AS WE HEAD INTO FIRST DAY NOTICE TOMORROW/ISRAEL BOMBS SYRIAN AIRPORT LAST NIGHT/ATLANTA FED LOWERS FIRST QUARTER GDP TO …

Gold: $1263.70 UP 1.60
Silver: $17.32 DOWN 3 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1264.50
silver: $17.26!!!
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1276.05 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: 1266.60
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.15
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1274.25
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: 1266.15
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$8.10
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1264.30
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1263.30 ???
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1262.80
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1262.00 ????
For comex gold:
APRIL/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 113 NOTICE(S) FOR 11300 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 922 FOR 92,200 OZ (2.8678 TONNES)
For silver:
For silver: APRIL
8 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 40,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 925 for 4,625,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on April 27, 2017.

Jim Puplava: Market Risks Increasing As Investors Grow Complacent

When it comes to the stock market, knowing how to define risk is the first place investors should start. Part of the problem many people have is, when risk appears to be highest, it is often actually low. Take for instance the few years after the last crash in 2009: up to 2012, many were anticipating another crash, Puplava stated.
‘They forgot that the crash already happened,’ he said. ‘In 2009, everyone was fearful. Today, I would say at best, everybody’s complacent.’
This complacency is the result of misunderstanding risk. Many investors, including academics, tend to think of risk as a function of volatility, which is measured by the VIX. The VIX spiked in late 2008 to a high of around 80. Today, it’s sitting near 10.
The public was not thinking about risk, stock market valuations, or the price other investors were willing to pay in 1999 to 2000. The same was true in 2005 and 2007.
But these are precisely the times we should be focusing on risk, Puplava stated.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 04/27/2017.

Euro Spikes On Upbeat Draghi Comments, Then Drops On Muted Inflation Outlook

Well that didn’t last long:moments after the EUR spiked on Draghi’s upbeat economic comments, it has since filled the entire gap and is back to session lows after Draghi talked down Eurozone inflation saying there is no sufficient evidence to alter inflation outlook, and no evidence of a self-sustaining inflation move.
DRAGHI SAYS ECB NOT SUFFICIENTLY CONFIDENT INFLATION ON TRACK Draghi also said that some members had a more ‘sanguine’ view of the economic situation, while others believed that such improvements wouldn’t ‘warrant’ change in communication on balance of risks. He also said that there is no ‘really’ different views on inflation, and that wage growth remains uncertain, stating that the assessment of four inflation criteria hasn’t changed.
Additionally, for those curious about tapering and/or ending QE, Draghi also said that there is “no need to discuss sequencing of removing accommodation at present.”
The result: EURUSD back under 1.09 after rising above 1.093 moments ago.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 27, 2017.

How Much Gold Is There?

How much gold is there in the world? Short answer: not much. That’s good news because gold’s value lies in its scarcity. After all, nobody picks up gravel off the ground and stores it in a safe. But if you find a gold nugget, you can take that to the bank – quite literally. Most people are vaguely aware that gold is scarce. But just how little there actually is might surprise you.
According to the World Gold Council, the best estimates suggest miners have pulled about 183,600 tons of gold out of the ground throughout history. That sounds like a lot. But if all of the gold ever mined was melted down into a giant cube, it would measure just 21.3 meters on each side, which translates to just under 70 feet. To put that into perspective, that’s about as tall as a seven-story building.
To look at it another way, if you formed all of the gold ever mined into 400-ounce bars and stacked them on top of one another, the stack wouldn’t even reach to the of the Statue of Liberty’s waist.

This post was published at Schiffgold on APRIL 27, 2017.

“Amber Warning Sign” Issued For EURUSD Bulls

While Draghi’s conference was supposed to be relatively boring, it was anything but, with the EUR first sliding on the statement’s suggestion that more QE is possible, then spiking on upbeat economic comments, then sliding again after Draghi talked down the inflationary outlook but most importantly, when the ECB president said that the ECB did not discuss options for June, nor removing the easing bias for interest rates. This was counter to the latest Reuters trial balloon earlier this week that the ECB were considering changing the language in June.
So what were the responses? On one hand there was BofA’s FX strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis, who said that Draghi is keeping his rethoric ‘intentionally’ uninspiring for investors as the ECB is in no hurry to act, adding that ‘they have time” and there is “no need to rock the boat” which makes sense with trillions in European debt still yielding negative.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 27, 2017.

War, Precious Metals and Mining Stocks – An Interview with Bob Moriarty

Our Favorite Veteran of Real Wars and the Gold Wars…
Our friend Maurice Jackson at Proven & Probable has just done an interview with another friend of ours: Bob Moriarty, the founder of 321gold.com, one of the best and most popular gold sites on the web. Many of our readers probably know Bob, or at least know about him. We want to nevertheless provide a few introductory words below, to elaborate a bit on what Bob does for those who don’t know about him, and also to let readers know how we met him, why we like him and why we have the utmost respect for him.
We first met Bob on the old Kitco Forum, a low-tech, completely uncensored message board for gold aficionadoes that was truly great fun while it lasted. What initially drew our attention was his principled, eloquent and quite vociferous anti-war stance. We and a few others soon joined him in lambasting G. W. Bush and his gaggle of lying neo-con chicken-hawk warmongers at every opportunity. Just as Ludwig von Mises did, we and Bob strongly believe that peace is the ‘father of all things’, not war.


This post was published at Acting-Man on April 27, 2017.

Gold and Silver Market Morning: April 27 2017 – Gold building strength below $1,300!

Gold Today – New York closed at $1,269.50 yesterday after closing at$1,263.80 Tuesday. London opened at $1,264.40 today.
Overall the dollar was weaker against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:
– The $: was weaker at $1.0892 after yesterday’s $1.0877: 1.
– The Dollar index was weaker at 99.01 after yesterday’s 99.19.
– The Yen was stronger at 111.30 after yesterday’s 111.47:$1.
– The Yuan was weaker at 6.8940 after yesterday’s 6.8907: $1.
– The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2900 after yesterday’s $1.2815: 1.
Yuan Gold Fix
The Shanghai Gold Exchange was trading at 283.00 towards the close today. This translates into $1,272.42. New York closed at a $2.92 discount to Shanghai’s close yesterday. London opened at a discount of$8.02 to Shanghai’s close today.
While Shanghai’s gold prices continue to slip, New York took prices up to the level of Shanghai’s close yesterday [Take $5 off Shanghai prices in the table to see that, to account for the difference in the quality of gold being priced] but London pulled prices back at its opening.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 27 April 2017.

Atlanta Fed Throws In The Towel: Cuts Final Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.2%

Well that was fast: literally seconds ago we posted JPM’s Q1 GDP forecast revision, saying “while we wait to see if the Atlanta Fed will cut its final Q1 GDP estimate ahead of tomorrow’s official print to 0% or negative.” At precisely the same time as we hit the publish button, the Atlanta Fed came out with its revised forecast and it’s a doozy: after starting its Q1 GDP nowcast at 2.5%, rising as high as 3.4%, and plunging recently as low as 0.5%, the Atlanta Fed has “thrown in the towel” on the quarter in which the Fed hiked rates, and while not negative – or 0.0% – it was about as close as it could go without the Fed losing all credibility for having hiked in a contraction quarter.
From the Atlanta Fed:
Latest forecast: 0.2 percent – April 27, 2017
The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.2 percent on April 27, down from 0.5 percent on April 18.
The forecast of first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 0.3 percent to 0.1 percent after yesterday’s annual retail trade revision by the U. S. Census Bureau. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth declined from -0.76 percentage points to -1.11 percentage points after this morning’s advance reports on durable manufacturing and wholesale and retail inventories from the Census Bureau.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 27, 2017.

Mario Draghi’s “Why More QE Is Possible But Everything’s Awesome” ECB Press Conference – Live Feed

Despite cherry-picked indications (and exultations) that everything is awesome in Europe’s economies (and central banks were united to rescue the world in case of a Le Pen victory), Mario Draghi decided to offer the at-record-high markets another bowl of potential punch bystating that if things got “less favorable” the ECB would increase/extend QE. We look forward to hearing his ‘balanced’ reasoning.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 27, 2017.

Trump Tax Plan Looks Good, But Hold the Celebration

Yesterday, the Trump administration rolled out its tax reform plan, or more like an outline for the plan. While it contained a lot of red meat for supporters and plenty of things to like, it lacked some important specifics and faces an uphill battle in Congress.

Generally speaking, those who favor lower taxes and a simpler tax code will find a lot of positives in the plan. It would drastically slash corporate and business taxes, lower the highest individual rate, double the standard deduction, eliminate several brackets, and repeal both the alternative minimum tax and the inheritance tax. The plan also calls for eliminating most deductions.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin characterized the plan as ‘the biggest tax cut and the largest tax reform in the history of this country.’
The reduction in the corporate/business rate is the most dramatic proposal, which would slash the rate from 35% to 15%. The US currently has the highest corporate rate of any industrialized nation, and is the most ‘complicated and uncompetitive business rate in the world,’ Mnuchin stated. The United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, and Ireland all have rates below 20%.
Most individuals would also likely pay lower taxes under the Trump plan. The current tax code includes seven brackets – 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, 35% and 39.6%. The new proposal would be reduced them to just three – 10%, 25%, and 35%. With the doubling of the standard deduction, a married couple would pay no taxes on the first $24,000 they earn.

This post was published at Schiffgold on APRIL 27, 2017.