Nate Silver is the pollster guru who has predicted races with uncanny accuracy in the past. The Democrats loved him in 2008 and 2012 because he predicted their victories. They don’t love him so much today. Looks like gridlock for Obama’s final two years, unless he does something really stupid.
After two months of forecasting, it comes down to this: Republicans are favored to win the Senate. Their chances of doing so are 76 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast, which is principally based on an analysis of the polls in each state and the historical accuracy of Senate polling.
But they are not necessarily favored to have the race ‘called’ for them on Tuesday night. Because of avariety of circumstances like possible runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana and the potential decision of Kansas independent Greg Orman about which party he chooses to caucus with, the outcome of the Senate may not be determined until days or weeks from now. The forecast refers only to the probability that Republicans will eventually claim control of the Senate by the time it convenes in January.
Still, for Republicans, it would be worth the wait after failed attempts to win the Senate in 2010 and 2012. They’ve been modest favorites in the FiveThirtyEight forecast all year, in part because the national environment is favorable for them: the group of states holding key Senate elections lean red; several Democratic incumbents have retired and the others were last elected in 2008, a high-water mark for the Democratic party; President Obama is unpopular and midterm elections have a long history of being challenging for the president’s party. Unlike in 2010 or 2012, however, the polls have moved toward Republicans in the closing days of the campaign – making their position more robust. The movement has been clearest in states like Kentucky, Arkansas and Georgia that typically vote Republican, suggesting the election may be converging toward the ‘fundamentals’ of each state.
This post was published at The Burning Platform on 4th November 2014.
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