“Sell The News” – WTI Tumbles Below $50 After OPEC Disappointment

Confident anchors across the media have been proudly proclaiming the rise above $50 as proof that the oil market is heading toward equilibrium again and OPEC’s production cut deal extension will be awesome… except the market seems to be disappointed as it’s clear no other non-OPEC nations will join the agreement (cough US shale cough) and “sell the news” has sent crude back below $50…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 25, 2017.

List of Seven Troubles Assailing the US Economy as We Head into Summer

The following is not simply a list of negative risks to the economy but a list of of serious economic conditions that are already placing drought-like pressures on the overall economy. This list doesn’t include the long-term structural problems with the economy, such as its high debt burden, but just the forces that have risen against it this year.
First-quarter US GDP growth slowed to a stagnant 0.7% (annualized) – stagnant in that population growth alone should cause GDP to rise more than that. So, really, GDP per capita is in recession, though that is not technically how a recession is called. Moody’s just downgraded China’s credit rating for the first time in thirty years, warning of fading financial strength as economy-wide debt mounts. Moody’s attributed the growing risk to years of credit-fueled stimulus, indicating the Chinese economy has grown reliant on stimulus. China’s debt was growing at an annualized rate of $4 trillion (30% of GDP)! China’s efforts to contain stimulus bubbles are expected to inhibit its economic growth, which will bring down the global prices of commodities like iron, copper and oil with similar collateral impact in the US to what we saw last time commodities like oil crashed. The Shanghai Composite stock index has fallen about 10% in less than two months. (Recall the damage China did to global stock markets from the summer of 2015 through early 2016 as the Chinese market melted down and China had to socialize most of its own stock market to save it from utter ruin. Today the Chinese government market saviors rushed in to prop it up again.) The Federal Reserve appears to be set on lowering Fed stimulus, while it is also becoming clear that no fiscal stimulus will come out of the federal government this year. Even those working on Obamacare and the Trump Tax plan say early 2018 is the best they can now hope for. The Fed has a track record of killing recoveries by remaining headstrong on stimulus retreat once it starts down that path. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and everything investors have been banking on looks increasingly uncertain at the moment. With no fiscal rain at at time when the streams of monetary stimulus are drying up, this promises to be a dry summer. If the Republican-led house and senate become even more divided, just remember Lincoln warned, ‘A house divided against itself cannot stand.’

This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 May 2017.

Bomb Detonates Inside Car Of Former Greek Prime Minister And Central Banker Papademos

#BREAKING – Blast in central #Athens reportedly involving a car carrying former Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos. #AthensLive pic.twitter.com/08n4zWJdfc
— AthensLive GR (@AthensLiveGr) May 25, 2017

Greek media reports that an explosion targeting the car of former Greek prime minister and central banker Lucas Papademos was reported on Thursday afternoon, at roughly 6.30 p.m. local time, in central Athens. According to Naftemporiki Papademos was transferred to an Athens hospital after what appeared to
be a letter bomb explosion inside the armored-plated car where he was a
passenger.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 25, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts — A House of Desolation

“God who gave us life gave us liberty. Can the liberties of a nation be secure when we have removed a conviction that these liberties are the gift of God? Indeed I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just, that His justice cannot sleep forever.”
Thomas Jefferson Memorial, Northeast Portico
‘A true opium of the people is the belief in nothingness after death, the huge solace, the huge comfort of thinking that for our betrayals, our greed, our cowardice, our murders, we are not going to be judged.’
Czesaw Miosz
“I urge you, brothers and sisters, to beware of those who cause arguments and put obstacles in your way with things that are contrary to the teachings you have learned. Keep away from them. For such people are not serving our Lord, but their own vain appetites and inclinations. By smooth talk and flattery they deceive the minds of naive people.”
Romans 16:17-18
Stocks set new highs, and gold and silver corrected a bit on a quiet Comex option expiration. The charts continue to exhibit interesting patterns and excesses.
The economic news of The Recovery meanders along its mediocre path, with a rise in long term unemployment and the sluggish growth in the broader economy driven by an exhausted middle class and staggering working poor.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 25 MAY 2017.

What Keeps Bank of America Up At Night

It has been a painful, bruising intellectual exercise for BofA’s HY credit strategist Michael Contopoulos, who after starting off 2016 uber-bearish, was – together with every other money manager and advisor – taken to the woodshed, and forced to flip bullish, kicking and screaming, and advising BofA clients to buy the same junk bonds he told them to sell just a few months prior. Now, thanks to Trump, he may be finally seeing a glimmer of the bearish light returning, and in a note published this morning, Contopoulos asks whether the US is looking at a replay of 2014 and 2015, when as a reminder, a false dawn turned out to be an ugly dusk, and forced first the BOJ, then the ECB to intervene aggressively with even more QEasing.
As BofA admits, “the last two weeks have further underpinned our belief that the market has had misplaced optimism in the new administration’s reform agenda, while we find more and more evidence that suggests the macro environment echoes that of 2014 and 2015. Meanwhile, the market environment has closely tracked that of late 2013 and early 2014, when expectations for higher rates, low defaults and strong fundamentals caused a bid for risk that sent yields to sub-5% until geopolitical risks shocked investors (a plane being shot down over Ukraine). Once cracks were exposed in 2014, and illiquidity concerns replaced a FOMO (fear of missing out) attitude, the ensuing collapse in crude left investors woefully unprepared for the troubles of the next year and a half.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 25, 2017.

MAY 25/GOLD AND SILVER ADVANCE DESPITE COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY TODAY/ GOLD UP $2.85/SILVER UP 9 CENTS/HUGE OPEN INTEREST STILL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX: WE MAY HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING …

GOLD: $1256.30 up $2.85
Silver: $17.12 up 9 cent(s)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1255.90
silver: $17.16
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1265.56 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: 1257.40
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.16
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1277.30
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: 1258.75
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$8.55
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1257.10
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1257.25
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1256.95
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1256.75
For comex gold:
MAY/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 400 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 528 FOR 52800 OZ (1.6423 TONNES)
For silver:
For silver: MAY
11 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 55,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 4584 for 22,970,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on May 25, 2017.

Sentiment Speaks: How Did I Know We Would See A 2% Down Day In A Bull Market?

Price action over the prior week
With the market remaining below our resistance of 2410SPX, we expected a drop towards 2330SPX. This past week saw a drop which bottomed within 20 points of our target region.
Anecdotal and other sentiment indications
In my never-ending quest for outperformance in the stock market, I am still bewildered by those who follow news as their triggers to buy or sell.
Now, while I can point to specific events which have confounded those looking for a market “crash,” such as the French terrorist attacks, or Brexit, or the Trump election, it seems people simply do not learn their lessons that you cannot glean market direction from news. While it may act as a catalyst for a market move, the substance of the news will not provide you a directional bias, and, many times, will even have you looking the wrong way.
Again, each of the examples I have presented above caused most market participants to be looking the wrong way, as the market continued its march higher towards our long-term bull market targets. You see, the market really does not care about the news. Only people who need a “reason” for what they want to do care about the news. But, markets are not reasonable. Markets are emotional.
Consider what Ben Franklin said hundreds of years ago:

This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 May 2017.

Panning for Gold Is Fun, But Not Very Lucrative

For the past decade, Mike Pung has scoured the Oklahoma hills and rivers in search of gold.
From what he told Tulsa’s Channel 8, it hasn’t exactly proven to be a fruitful venture.
You know, I’ve been in this for 10 years now, and I have never found a nugget, ever.’
But for Pung and other members of of the Gold Prospectors of Oklahoma City, gold hunting is a labor of love. They spend hours panning in Oklahoma rivers and sifting piles of dirt in hope of finding even the tiniest flakes of gold. After all that work, you may need a magnifying glass to examine the haul. Nevertheless, Gary Whited said the thrill of the find is hard to even explain. He said even a speck can make you feel like you made your way into Fort Knox.

Once you see that first gold in a pan it’s worse than buck fever … The coolest part about this is when we seen that gold, we’re the first people in history to ever see that gold, nobody’s ever seen it before.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on MAY 25, 2017.

Jared Kushner “Under FBI Scrutiny” In Russia Probe: NBC

Breaking: Jared Kushner now a focus in Russia investigation — Washington Post (@washingtonpost) May 25, 2017

Update: Just like last week’s bombshells, the Washington Post managed to publish an almost identical confirmation of NBC’s story within minutes…almost like they coordinated…
And, just like NBC, the Washington Post was careful to hedge their salacious title (though multiple paragraphs down in the body of the article) by pointing out that Kushner is not technically a “target” in the investigation and has not been accused of any wrongdoing.
The Post has not been told that Kushner is a target – or the central focus – of the investigation, and he has not been accused of any wrongdoing. Target is a word that generally refers to someone who is the main suspect of investigators’ attention, though prosecutors can and do bring charges against people who are not marked with that distinction.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 25, 2017.

The Setup Is Almost Complete,Once The Fed Does This,The Collapse Is Imminent – Episode 1289a

The following video was published by X22Report on May 25, 2017
If Canadian homeowners saw a 10% increase in mortgage payments 75% of those surveyed said it would be very difficult and many would not be able to pay. Sears says it had its first profit in 2 years, the only problem there was no profit. There are roughly 230 million getting handouts from the government . Two researchers have discovered that the VIX is rigged. Foreign central banks are silently acquiring Treasuries and having the FED hold them. The Fed needs only do 1 more interest rate hike which will start the collapse of the economy.

RBC Explains What The Hell Is Going On: “Prudent” Fed & Chinese Intervention

A “prudent” Fed (and China’s “National Team”) have spurred a risk-on rally, as RBC’s head of cross-asset strategy Charlie McElligott notes the market’s ‘Pavolovian’ response to Fed’s ‘dovish hints’ contained within the Minutes – despite simultaneously staying ‘on message’ with hiking / tapering commentary – prompts a “QE of old” response: stocks and Treasuries bid, while the USD faded.
China further perpetuates the ‘risk rally’ via apparent market interventions:
1. Intervention in FX markets to strengthen the Yuan overnight, with speculation of a number of Chinese banks selling Dollars in the onshore market overnight which drove the Yuan higher.
2. Chinese ‘National Team’ stock market inventions as well, with sharp-turns higher off of an initially weaker equities opening and again-weaker industrial metals. Major reversals off lows saw nearly all domestic markets close at highs (Shanghai Prop +2.8%), while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed at highs since July 2015, with Chinese real estate developers leading.
Initial (and expected) ‘sell the news’ on the snoozer OPEC outcome, as they extend the output cut 9 months per expectations – which disappointed the ‘bullish surprise’ camp which anticipated more OPEC-‘gaming’ of the market, thinking it was possible for a deeper-cut in conjunction with the consensus extension.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 25, 2017.

Gold’s Pricing Power Moving East – Part 1

How is the gold price made?
When we hear commentary on why the gold price has moved, we usually hear of U. S. economic or political factors and a move in the U. S. Dollar. Most times these do not precipitate the buying of physical gold.
What they do do, is to spur the buying or selling of futures or Options on the COMEX gold market. Many commentators attribute moves in the physical gold price to moves on COMEX.
But this link is tenuous, as COMEX does not [except for a maximum of 5% and minimum of 1% of contracts that disclose they will deal in physical gold, upfront] deal in physical gold.
The dollar gold price is the one that most investors look at, even though they may deal in a different currency to the dollar. This is because the dollar is the key global currency against which all others are measured.
Price differential between Shanghai and London/New York
U. S. gold prices today are primarily driven by demand for physical gold in gold ETFs, such as the Gold Trust and the SPDR gold ETF [GLD].
But the bulk of physical gold traded in the world now happens on the Shanghai gold exchange. There are 10 million investors, including 10,000 institutions that are able to deal over their cell phones at any time on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Such a market dwarfs both London and New York on the physical front, as all transactions have to be backed by physical gold.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 May 2017.

Montana House Candidate Charged With Assault After “Body Slamming” Guardian Reporter

Last night we wrote about Montana’s Republican congressional candidate Greg Gianforte who reportedly “body slammed” Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs during an interview after being pressed for his opinion on the CBO healthcare score. Gianforte is the Republican candidate in today’s special election for Montana’s open U. S. House seat…but we’re sure it’s just a coincidence that this happened one day before the election.
Not surprisingly, we learn this morning that Gianforte has been officially slapped with a “misdemeanor assault” charge by the Gallatin County Sheriff’s office which carries with it a maximum fine of up to $500 and/or 6 months in jail if convicted.


This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 25, 2017.

Trump the Perfect Scapegoat for When the Fed Bubbles Pop

In his most recent Gold Videocast, Peter Schiff pointed out that Pres. Trump inherited an economic mess from Barack Obama. Even if he can manage to get his policies implemented in the midst of the political circus going on in D. C., it isn’t going to be enough to stop the downward economic spiral.
Yes, having Donald Trump president is better than having Hillary Clinton as president. But he is not a get out of jail free card for the economy… The problem is the damage is going to hit on Donald Trump’s watch. Barack Obama got out of Dodge just in time.’
Brandon Smith at Alt-Market.com agrees that the economy is due to take a plunge. He takes things a step further, asserting that Trump is just the scapegoat the central bankers have been waiting for. Now they can nudge up interest rates and blame the chaos caused by popping bubbles on the president specifically and Republican policies in general.

This post was published at Schiffgold on MAY 25, 2017.

Gold and Silver Market Morning: May 25 2017 – Gold moving up within the narrow trading channel as $ weaker!

Gold Today – New York closed at $1,257.20 yesterday after closing at$1,251.80 Tuesday. London opened at $1,257.95 today.
Overall the dollar was weaker against global currencies, early today. Before London’s opening:
– The $: was weaker at $1.1234 after yesterday’s $1.1189: 1.
– The Dollar index was weaker at 97.01 after yesterday’s 97.33.
– The Yen was slightly weaker at 111.80 after yesterday’s 111.88:$1.
– The Yuan was stronger at 6.8737 after yesterday’s 6.8905: $1.
– The Pound Sterling was slightly weak at $1.2973 after yesterday’s $1.2978: 1.
Yuan Gold Fix
New York closed $9.80 lower than Shanghai yesterday. London opened today at a $9.05 discount to Shanghai.
Shanghai prices rose after New York’s close rose too, catching up slightly to Shanghai, as you can see in the reduced discount New York is standing at. London opened at a smaller discount to Shanghai too. If this continues then Shanghai holds the pricing power. The Yuan overnight was quite a bit stronger against the dollar as the People’s Bank of China pressured the banks to take it higher against the dollar, likely to compensate for the weakness in the dollar.
Silver Today – Silver closed at $17.19 yesterday after $17.07 at New York’s close yesterday.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 May 2017.

Bitcoin $10,000?

Bitcoin has entered a parabolic phase, blowing past the price of gold and hitting new all-time highs on a daily basis.
Trace Mayer, host of the Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast and a leading expert on bitcoin, recently discussed cryptocurrencies as an asset class, why bitcoin is better than gold or fiat money, bitcoin’s “seven network effects,” and much, much more on our podcast last week.
Here’s Trace on the biggest and most explosive driver for bitcoin that no one is yet talking about. If this gets going, Trace believed bitcoin could reach as high as $10,000 in a few years:
7 Network Effects Driving Bitcoin
Mayer has been bullish on bitcoin since it was trading around $0.25 (today it hit a high of $2,791), and he sees more upside potential for the cryptocurrency over the long-term.
‘Merchants accept it because speculators hold it,’ Mayer said. ‘Consumers use it because merchants accept it. Miners secure it…(and) developers then want to work on the most secure, most valuable blockchain.’
As developers build out the usefulness of the protocol, more applications arise. Next, we get financialization, he added.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 05/25/2017.

Gartman Turns Bullish On Tech: “Every Time We Think The Market Is Overbought, It Moves Higher”

First, it was Warren Buffett turning bullish on tech, and now none other than Dennis Gartman has thrown in the towel on “things that if dropped on your foot shall hurt’ and will instead focus on “buying the things that are either replacing these simple things or are making these simple things better.”
From his latest note:
We stand in awe of the sheer relentless nature of the global bull market. Unlike the parabolic rise by Bitcoin, for example, the trend from the lower left to the upper right in global equity prices is measured… is reasonable… is relentless and is, in the end, majestic in nature. It will stop when it stops and not a moment before. Every time we think that the market is overbought, it consolidates and moves higher.
It is interesting then to note that the CNN Fear & Greed Index has been ‘locked’ in recent days a few points either side of 50, where 50 is evenly balanced between the bullish and bearish forces at work. When the Index is below 20 and has turned higher, the market is oversold and due for a rally. When it is above 75 or so and turns down, the market’s over-bought and due for weakness. But at 50 it is neutral… utterly and completely… allowing the trend at hand to obtain a while longer and the trend at hand is clearly a bullish trend.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 25, 2017.

Asian Metals Market Update: May-25-2017

Gold and silver are bullish after the FOMC minutes. Fed policy makers signaled they wanted more evidence that recent weakness in economic growth was transitory before removing monetary stimulus further. So basically if May nonfarm payrolls comes in below 150,000 then June’s interest rate hike will not be there. Any indication of interest rate hike postponement will be bullish for US dollar denominated asset class.
We also have the UK election in two weeks time. Technically the euro and cable are bullish against the US dollar. Cable will zoom if there are no surprises in the UK elections. (I expect Ms. May to come back to power even more strongly). Currency market trends will affect metals and not energies.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 May 2017.

China’s Lehman Moment Is Coming!

Before I dig into the coming Lehman moment out of China, you should understand how China has impacted the world.
First, let’s start with debt. Debt sits at the heart of China’s miracle growth.
China has more than quadrupled its debt load since 2007.
Just between 2007-2014, its debt exploded from $7 trillion to $28 trillion (simply incomprehensible numbers).
China’s addiction for growth (in building mega-cities, bridges, roads, etc…) helped push demand for commodities higher (like iron ore, steel, and oil).
But the initial day of reckoning came late 2014. The world was unable to absorb the unrelenting Chinese production.
In the face of massive excess supply, prices collapsed. The ripple effect hit the energy sector first. Then the materials space… then worked its way through the economy from there.
China’s rulers got scared of it death-spiraling.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 05/25/2017.