Top Hedge Fund Manager Pay Tumbles To Lowest Since 2005

Last week news emerged that as a result of the deteriorating local economy, coupled with a plunge in hedge fund profits, the capital of Connecticut – Hartford – was preparing for bankruptcy. Among the reasons cited by Department of Revenue Services Commissioner Kevin Sullivan was that wealthy people are ‘dramatically less wealthy than they were before.’
It turns out that, at least relatively speaking, he was correct.
According to the latest annual ranking by Institutional Investor’s Alpha magazine, the woes that have plagued hedge fund LPs who have paid 2 and 20 (or 1 and 10 as the case may ) for seven consecutive years of market underperformance have finally spread to management and in 2016 the 25 top paid hedge fund managers made a combined $11 billion. Although that sounds like a lot, it’s actually the lowest total since 2005, when the top 25 earned just $9.4 billion. It’s also just a little over half of what the top 25 managers earned just three years ago, when they reaped a total of $21.2 billion.
The average top earner made $440 million in 2016. The median earner made $250 million, the lowest since 2011, when the median earner made $235 million.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 16, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – As Time Goes By

“For I behold the heavens, the works of your fingers: the moon and the stars which you have made. What is man that you are mindful of him? or the Son of Man that you dwell with him? You have made us a little less than the angels, and you have crowned Him with glory and honour, And have set Him over all the works of your hands.”
Psalm 8:3-5
‘Narcissistic personality disorder is named for Narcissus, from Greek mythology, who fell in love with his own reflection. Freud used the term to describe persons who were self-absorbed, and psychoanalysts have focused on the narcissist’s need to bolster his or her self-esteem through grandiose fantasy, exaggerated ambition, exhibitionism, and feelings of entitlement.’
Donald W. Black, DSM-5 Guidebook
Stocks continued their sideways trade, except for the big cap techs which lead the NDX to new highs.
The rally has narrowed considerably, and is being driven by less than ten stocks which have an overweight influence on the indices.
And as the stock indices go higher, they attract more money into them through index funds.
The ending will be swift, and sudden.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 16 MAY 2017.

Everyone Needs To Start Worrying About The Economic Apocalypse – Episode 1281a

The following video was published by X22Report on May 16, 2017
Retail is imploding on itself, more stores are now declaring bankruptcy, other stores are showing major losses and stores are continually closing. Ford is letting go 10% of employees and these individuals are the salaried personnel. Housing starts declines once again and sinks deeper into the abyss. Industrial production surges, but this will not continue because the surge was due to the auto manufactures and now we have an oversupply of vehicles. One belt one road trade system has been initiated back in 2013 during the time when the US was pushing the TPP and TTIP. The economic apocalypse is upon us and the system is collapsing right in front of our eyes.

French 30-Year Bond Sale Over 4 Times Oversubscribed

In its first bond sale since the presidential election and the first big test of investor sentiment after Emmanuel Macron won the presidency, France received more than 31 billion in demand for a 30-year bond offering, once again demonstarting the unprecedented demand for duration on the yield-starved continent where the ECB is happily gobbling up every interest-yielding instrument. With some 7 billion in ultra-long duration paper sold via a syndicate of banks, pricing at 30Y FRTR +12, tighter than the +14 price talk, the issue was more than 4 times oversubscribed.
Investor appetite for the bond, which some said helped by a cheapening of French debt in past weeks, also sparked an outperformance of 30-year French bond yields, which fell 3 basis points in late trade. When France opened books on the deal around 0830 GMT on Tuesday, interest was already in excess of 18 billion even before it started taking orders, according to Retuers IFR. It nearly doubled over the course of the day.
“The 30-year area has been relatively cheap so it is no surprise to see strong demand for this bond today,” said Patrick Jacq, rate strategist at BNP.
It goes without saying that a main driver for the investor interest is that while the bond matures in May 2048, three years later than the current 30-year benchmark, it is still eligible for ECB purchases in June,

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 16, 2017.


GOLD: $1236.75 UP $6.10
Silver: $16.77 UP 15 cent(s)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1228.60
silver: $16.47
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$12.83
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1234.05
For comex gold:
For silver:
For silver: MAY
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 4439 for 22,195,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on May 16, 2017.

Position Investor Jim Deeds: ‘ I’m Now Positioning In Silver ‘ | McAlvany Commentary 2017

The following video was published by McAlvany Financial on May 16, 2017
This week Jim Deeds joins us to discuss when gold is $3000 You will need silver to simply trade and spend. Silver shorts reach a 23 yr. record signaling a clear contrarian ‘buy’ signal. Wealthy man’s secret: Ask ‘what will people need in next 2-5 yrs. and invest accordingly. Thank you for listening!

A Random Walk Down Baltimore’s Triangle Of Death

As of Tuesday, 129 citizens in Baltimore City, Maryland have been murdered, including nine in the recent week. Baltimore City’s homicide rate is now ranked number one in the United States surpassing cities, such as New Orleans, St. Louis, and Detroit. The city has deteriorated so quickly this year that the Mayor of Baltimore has called on Federal Government agencies to restore order. According to WaPo, Baltimore’s homicide rate ‘is more than triple Washington’s rate and higher than the homicide rates in New Orleans and Chicago, two places that have become national symbols of gun violence’.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 16, 2017.

AI Predicts Next US Recession to Start in 2019

March 2019 is the current target date for the next US recession, says a machine-learning “forecasting engine” developed by San Diego-based Intensity Corporation. Intensity boasts a number of very large tech firms as clients – Apple, IBM, Microsoft, and others – and is itself comprised by a team of data scientists, statisticians, and econometrically-minded PhDs.
In a recent interview with Financial Sense Insider, two of Intensity’s Vice Presidents, Ray Bamford and Irina Telyukova, discussed their real-time forecasting model, how it compares to professional human forecasters, and how, as you’ll hear in the following clip, AI is being applied to forecasting and large-scale investing.
Intensity’s Engine
‘Our forecasting platform, broadly defined … is an engine that relies on continual model updating,’ Telyukova said, as well as continual ‘model selection and model combination.’
The engine is designed to deliver forecasts that are based on large sets of data of different kinds and be responsive to the economy and market conditions in real time, she added.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 05/15/2017.

Clothing Retailer Rue21 Files For Bankruptcy, Many More On Deck

This time Fitch was right. One month ago the rating agency listed 8 retail names that were most likely to file for bankruptcy next, just over a month later 1 out of the 8 was down, when teen clothing retailer Rue21 filed a prepackaged bankruptcy on Monday night in Pennsylvania bankruptcy court.
In its bankruptcy petition, the company which retained Kirkland & Ellis as legal advisor, Rothschild as financial advisor, and Berkeley Research as its restructuring advisor, listed both assets and liabilities in the range of $1 to $10 billion.
The restructuring process, during which the company will operate as normal, will lead to company’s “transformation into a more focused and highly performing retailer” the company announced in a press release, and added that as part of its restructuring process, it had “entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) with certain of its stakeholders that confirms the support of the Debtors’ key constituents for the Debtors’ restructuring process and contemplates, among other things, an emergence from chapter 11 proceedings in the fall of 2017 with a significantly deleveraged balance sheet. In particular, lenders holding 96.8% of the Company’s secured term loan, bondholders representing 60.2% of the Company’s issued and outstanding unsecured notes, and the Company’s majority shareholder each executed the Restructuring Support Agreement.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 16, 2017.

Silver Price Forecast 2017 Report | David Morgan

The following video was published by The Morgan Report on May 16, 2017
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection.

Stocks hit record high on sagging performance, higher debt.

There’s something completely ridiculous happening around the world right now.
We can start in the United Kingdom, where the FTSE-100 stock market index hit an all-time high yesterday of 7454.
Simultaneously the British government released statistics yesterday showing that debt judgments and bankruptcy filings across the UK soared 35% in the first quarter of 2017 to the highest level in a decade.
British consumers are on a debt binge, borrowing (and now defaulting) at record levels.
This all sounds pretty sustainable.
Across the pond in the Land of the Free, the US stock market also hit a record high yesterday.
Simultaneously, consumer credit (i.e. DEBT) in the US is also at an all-time high of $3.8 trillion.
Even more specifically, margin debt, which is the amount of money that investors borrow to buy stocks, is at an all-time high.
Think about that: investors are borrowing record amounts of money to buy stocks at all-time highs.

This post was published at Sovereign Man on May 16, 2017.

Comey’s Revenge: Leaks Memo To NYT Saying Trump Asked Him To End Flynn Investigation

NBC News confirms Comey says Trump asked him to drop the Flynn investigation
— Ken Dilanian (@KenDilanianNBC) May 16, 2017

Update 1:
And just like yesterday, it was just a matter of minutes before CNN and NBC ‘independently’ corroborated the New York Times’ story.
Meanwhile, Independent Senator Angus King of Maine is now considering calling for impeachment proceedings for “obstruction of justice.”
“Obstruction of justice is such a serious event. And I say it with sadness and reluctance. This is not something that I’ve advocated for.”
“But, if indeed the President tried to tell the Director of the FBI, who worked for him, that he should drop an investigation, whether it was Michael Flynn or some investigation that had nothing to do with Russia or politics or the election, that’s a very serious matter.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 16, 2017.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: April Industrial Production Largest Gain in Three Years

Note: This commentary has been updated to incorporate the April data for Industrial Production.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.
There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:
Nonfarm Employment Industrial Production Real Retail Sales Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) The Latest Indicator Data
Today’s report on Industrial Production for April shows a 1.0% change month-over-month (0.98% to two decimal points), which was above the consensus of 0.4%. The previous month was revised downward from 0.5 percent to 0.4 percent and revisions were made going back to November. Industrial Production peaked in November 2014, only one point higher than its pre-recession peak in November 2007. The year-over-year change is 2.19 percent, up from last month’s YoY increase.
Here is the overview from the Federal Reserve:

This post was published at FinancialSense on 05/16/2017.

Goldman Turns Less Confident On June, September Rate Hikes

Following disappointing CPI prints for two months in a row, even such stalwart believers in the Fed’s tightening cycle as Goldman Sachs (recall Hatzius warned recently that the Fed may need to “shock” markets to tighten monetary conditions in light of the S&P relentless grind higher despite rising rates) are suggesting that the Fed’s rate hike trajectory for the rest of 2017 is suddenly in question.
In a note released overnight, Goldman chief economist Hatzius writes that “despite sharply weaker core inflation in the last two months, we continue to expect rate hikes in June and September followed by an announcement of balance sheet runoff in December, as well as a funds rate path well above the forwards in 2018 and beyond.” And whil he sayd that the firm has not “made any changes to these forecasts because the negative inflation surprise has coincided with a roughly equivalent upside labor market surprise” he adds that “the risk to our near-term funds rate view is now slightly greater, largely because the range of plausible outcomes has widened. We have shaved our subjective odds of a June rate hike to 80%, from 90% earlier, and have also become a bit less confident in a September hike. If the outlook deteriorates significantly, the committee might simply delay any further tightening steps.”
What does this mean for the sequence of proposed events between the Fed’s potential balance sheet reduction announcement and future rate hikes: according to Hatzius it means that “even a more modest deterioration could prompt the committee to pull forward the announcement of balance sheet runoff to the September meeting and delay the third 2017 rate hike until December.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 16, 2017.

Inflation/deflation and the desire to avoid short-term pain

The desire to avoid short-term pain is a powerful motivator. Even in cases where it is known that the steps taken to avoid pain in the short-term will lead to greater pain in the distant future, people will often choose the path that entails lesser short-term pain. Also, there’s often the hope that if pain is postponed for long enough then something will spring up to circumvent the need to experience the pain. The relevance to the inflation-deflation issue is that the long-term cure for an economy suffering from the bad effects of high monetary inflation involves stopping the inflation, but stopping the inflation always results in short-term pain.
Nowadays, people look back at the devastating inflation that occurred in Germany in the early 1920s and think: ‘How could the central bankers of that era have been so stupid? There’s no way that the stewards of today’s major currencies would make the same mistakes!’ In real time, however, the gross stupidity of the German central bank’s actions was only apparent to a small number of economists. At each step along the way to total monetary collapse, the pain involved in stopping the money-printing was weighed against the cost of continuing the inflation and it always appeared to make sense to continue the inflation for just a little longer.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 16 May 2017.

Industrial Production Surges Most Since Feb 2014 As Auto Assembly Spikes

Industrial Production rose 0.96% in April – the biggest MoM move since Feb 2014 – dramatically better than expected (and one of the first ‘hard’ data beats this month). Year-over-year, IP is up over 2% (the fastest growth since Jan 2015).
The increase in durables was spearheaded by a large advance for motor vehicles and parts, while the improvement for nondurables was led by gains for food, beverage, and tobacco products, for textile and product mills, for printing and support, and for chemicals.
What is most ironic is the 5.1% surge in Automotive production – we suspect that will not be sustained (given Ford’s massive layoffs). Ex-Autos IP rose just 0.6%.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 16, 2017.