Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 1 – Gold

If we look at gold from the long-term perspective, it’s clear that it hasn’t really done much in the recent months – it’s trading in the $1,200 – $1,250 range, which is where it was in the first half of 2016, first half of 2015, for most of 2014 and in the second half of 2013. Overall, despite short-term and medium-term price swings, not much has happened in the past few years.
Since the bull market in gold started over 15 years ago, we haven’t seen such a long consolidation pattern – ever. Even the big 2008 plunge was followed by a rally almost immediately (from the long-term point of view, that is). The gold volatility index confirms the above having recently moved to new all-time lows (it’s been published for only several years, but still, that’s an important observation).

This post was published at GoldSeek on May 30, 2017.

MAY 30/GOLD DOWN $4.45 YET SILVER WAS AGAIN STRONG: UP 10 CENTS/WITH ONE DAY TO GO BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE: A MONSTROUS 64,772 CONTRACTS STILL STANDING (COMPARED TO LAST YR’S 39,520 CONTRACTS WIT…

GOLD: $1262.80 DOWN $4.45
Silver: $17.43 up 10 cent(s)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1263.10
silver: $17.40
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
CHINA ON HOLIDAY
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $xxxxx DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: 1269.60
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $xxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $xxx
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: 1265.90
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$xx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1262.80
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1263.25
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1262.70
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1264.05
For comex gold:
MAY/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 22 NOTICE(S) FOR 2200 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 551 FOR 55100 OZ (1.7138 TONNES)
For silver:
For silver: MAY
41 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 210,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 4657 for 23,285,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on May 30, 2017.

“They’re Coming Here To Peddle Hate Speech”: Portland Mayor Asks Feds To Pull Permit For Pro-Trump Rally

Three days after a known white supremacist killed two men and wounded a third on a Portland commuter train, the city’s mayor is asking the federal government to revoke permits for two pro-Trump rallies planned at the federally-controlled Terry Schrunk Plaza because, apparently, in the far-left bastion that is Portland, Ore., voicing support for President Trump qualifies as hate speech.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 30, 2017.

Cable Tumbles After New Poll Shows Tories Falling Short Of Majority By 16 Seats

With the UK elections fast approaching, what was until recently seen as an almost certain overall majority for Theresa May is rapidly slipping away, and moments ago according to Sam Coates, the Deputy Political Editor of the Times, a just released YouGov poll shows that the Conservatives would miss the number of seats needed for a majority (326) by roughly 16 seats, and in fact would lose 20 seats from the 330 the Tories had at the time of the dissolution of the 2015-2017 parliament.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 30, 2017.

The First Crack Appears In The Second Tech Bubble

By now everyone knows it: what is going on with a handful of tech stocks is remarkably similar to the irrationally exuberant events from the first tech bubble at the turn of the century.
Four weeks ago, Goldman pointed out that in 2017, just 10 companies are responsible for half of the entire S&P’s rally YTD with the top five, AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT – have accounted for nearly 40% of returns.
Shortly thereafter, when looking at the latest set of 13F filings we found that virtually every prominent hedge fund has piled into the most prominent tech names: As Bloomberg noted, with an average gain of 26% , “it’s hard to overstate the influence of just six stocks on the U. S. stock market in the first quarter: Facebook Inc., Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc. and Netflix Inc.”
This was shown just days later by Bank of America which showed that annualized tech inflows are now the strongest this century, running at an unprecedented 25% of AUM, which BofA dubbed a “sign of renewed exuberance.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 30, 2017.

SWOT Analysis: Deutsche Bank Says Investors Should Prepare for Flight to Gold

Strengths
The best-performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 4.18 percent. Bloomberg reports that rising automobile demand may be sending palladium futures toward the steepest rally since April 20. Bloomberg’s weekly poll of traders and analysts show the trending heading toward bullishness, with 10 bullish, five bearish and four neutral. Analysts point to concerns over terrorism, probes into President Donald Trump’s links to Russia and doubts that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in June, as factors that may spur investors to choose gold. China’s gold demand in 2017 is still the strongest in four years, reports Bloomberg. Although higher prices have deterred some buyers, dropping gold purchases from 15-month highs, the World Gold Council (WGC) sees demand growing to 900 to 1,000 metric tons for the full year. Weaknesses
The worst-performing metal for the week was gold, albeit still positive with a gain of 0.91 percent.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 30 May 2017.

The Entire System Is Ripping Itself Apart And It’s Going Unnoticed – Episode 1293a

The following video was published by X22Report on May 30, 2017
Eurozone economic confidence declines and the economies of the European nations has not improved since the great recession. Consumer confidence is declining. Personal spending tumbles on a year to year basis. Millions of Americans just got a boost int their credit scores, and the central bank is hoping this will allow more people to go into debt. Case Shiler is reporting a surge in home prices in their 20 cities. The corporate debt bomb is ticking and it worse than ever. Trump calls for nuclear option so the government is not shutdown. In Dubai a gold backed cryptocurrency has been launched.

In Watershed Event, Europe Unveils Plan To Securitize Sovereign Debt

Less than a decade after various complex, synthetic, squared, cubed and so on securitized debt structures nearly brought down the financial system, here come “Sovereign Bond-Backed Securities.”
Moments ago, the FT reported that in a watershed event for the European – and global – bond markets, Brussels is pressing for sovereign debt from across the eurozone to be “bundled into a new financial instrument and sold to investors as part of a proposal to strengthen the single currency area.”
Call it securitized sovereign debt.
In the latest attempt by Europe to create a common bond market, a European Commission paper on the future of the euro seen by the Financial Times, advocates the launching of a market of ‘sovereign bond-backed securities’ – packaging different countries’ national debt into a new asset.
The logic is simple: combine all the debt from strong and weak countries into one big pool, eliminating the outliers on both sides, then tranche it out, and sell it based on required yield returns.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 30, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Swing Fever

Swing Kids – The Swing Kids (German: Swingjugend) were a group of jazz and swing dance fans in Germany in the 1930s, primarily in the port city of Hamburg and Berlin. They were 14 to 21-year-old boys and girls. They admired the British and American youth culture, defining themselves with swing music as opposed to the National-Socialist fashions and behaviours, especially those of the Hitler Youth (German: Hitlerjugend).
Their dress consisted of long, often checked English sports jackets, shoes with thick light crepe soles, showy scarves, Anthony Eden hats, an umbrella on the arm whatever the weather, and, as an insignia, a dress-shirt button worn in the buttonhole, with a jeweled stone. The girls too favored a long overflowing hair style. Their eyebrows were penciled, they wore lipstick and their nails were lacquered.
The Swingjugend rejected the Nazi state, its ideology and uniformity, its militarism, the ‘Fhrer principle’ and the conformity of the Volksgemeinschaft (people’s community). They rebelled against all this restriction of personal freedoms with jazz and swing, which stood for a love of life, self-determination, non-conformism, freedom, independence, liberalism, and internationalism.
On 18 August 1941, in a brutal police operation, over 300 Swingjugend were arrested. The measures against them ranged from cutting their hair and sending them back to school under close monitoring, to the deportation of the leaders to concentration camps. The boys went to the Moringen concentration camp while the girls were sent to Ravensbruck. This mass arrest encouraged the youth to further their political consciousness and opposition to National Socialism. They started to distribute anti-fascist propaganda. In January 1943, Gnter Discher, as one of the ringleaders of the Swing Kids, was deported to the youth concentration camp of Moringen.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 30 MAY 2017.

Peso Pounded As Political Risk Re-Emerges In Mexico

The Mexican peso tumbled more than 1% this morning, more than every other major emerging-market currency except the South African rand.
Bloomberg reports that traders were anticipating a victory for the opposition Morena party in this weekend’s gubernatorial elections in the state of Mexico, according to Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.’s head of emerging markets in New York.
And the peso is back at one-week lows

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 30, 2017.

The Three Most Interesting Numbers in President Trump’s First Budget

Before diving into the more interesting numbers contained within President Trump’s first official budget proposal, let’s ask a budget history trivia question: When was the last time that any US President proposed a budget for the US government that would be balanced at any time within the next 10 years of it being proposed?
If you guessed President George W. Bush in 2007, you’re right!
Now, if you were to ask when the last time that a US President proposed and delivered a balanced budget, you would have to go back to the turn of the century in 2000, where President William J. Clinton’s final budget proposal for the federal government’s 2001 fiscal year produced a budget surplus.
It’s important to consider these two dates because it has been nearly 10 years since a US President even proposed a budget that would reduce the government’s annual spending deficit to zero within a ten year period, and it has been four whole presidential terms since a US President’s budget delivered a surplus to the US Treasury.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 05/30/2017.

The ECB and the Fed: Divergent Paths to Doom?

Americans tend to focus on the Federal Reserve, but often forget the US central bank isn’t the only game in town.
While Yellen and company hint they will try to continue pushing interest rates up, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi told European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs committee he intends to push ahead with his interventionist monetary policy. That means continued negative interest rates and quantitative easing for the EU.
So, are the world’s two largest central banks taking divergent paths to doom?
During Monday’s meeting, Draghi stressed the European bloc still needs ‘an extraordinary amount of monetary support’ in spite of its growing economic recovery. The ECB president said he’s’firmly convinced’ the bank should continue ‘support measures,’ including 60 billion of monthly bond purchases.
Overall, we remain firmly convinced that an extraordinary amount of monetary policy support, including through our forward guidance, is still necessary for the present level of underutilized resources to be re-absorbed and for inflation to return to and durably stabilize around levels close to 2pc within a meaningful medium-term horizon.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on MAY 30, 2017.

Early Monsoon Season Will Boost Indian Gold Buying

After the concerted western Central Bank effort, led by the BIS, to squelch Indian gold imports by eliminating the most commonly used currency bills failed, the fake news about Indian gold imports coming from the World Gold Council amplified. The WGC missed its Q1 2017 forecast for Indian gold imports by a country mile, as Indian gold imports doubled in Q1 to 253 tonnes. Please note that these numbers do not include the amount of gold smuggled into India, which has been estimated to be 200-300 tonnes annually.
Now the World Gold Council is promoting the narrative that Indian gold imports will average only 90 tonnes per quarter the rest of the year because of a new General Sales Tax scheduled to be implemented on July 1st plus restrictions to be implemented on gold dore bar imports. However, this is again an ill-fated prediction, likely for the purpose of spreading anti-gold propaganda, which seems to be one of the World Gold Council’s general directives.
First, in April and May, the premiums to world gold paid in India suggest that April/May imports already are well into triple-digits. And the WGC’s arguments are absurd, as expressed by John Brimelow in his Gold Jottings report:

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on May 30, 2017.

How to Retire on 2% Returns

Does the past predict the future? If you work in the regulated financial industry, you can only answer that question two ways. Your acceptable answers are:
No Not necessarily When I used to write commodity and hedge fund marketing materials, I typed the official phrase, ‘Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results’ so often, I finally gave it a hotkey on my computer.
That’s not to say the past is irrelevant. It can tell us a lot.
If you can identify a pattern in economic cycles or market activity and have enough observations to make your observation statistically significant, it raises your odds of success.
The fact that most people do this badly doesn’t mean it can’t be done at all. Talent exists; it’s just hard to find.
That’s why John Mauldin’s Strategic Investment Conference is such a boon. Last week, he gathered some of the world’s most brilliant investment thinkers in one place and let them speak their minds.
Better yet, he turned the experts loose on each other by grouping them in panels. Those discussions were pure gold. (You can hear them for yourself with the SIC Virtual Pass.)
I heard some things I didn’t especially like, but there is no true bliss in ignorance, no matter what the folk wisdom says. Today, I’ll tell you about one of speakers and what I learned from him.

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on MAY 30, 2017.

Gold and Silver Market Morning: May 30 2017 – Gold consolidating lower before Shanghai re-opens!

Gold Today – New York closed at $1,267.00 yesterday after closing at $1,256.10 Friday. London opened at $1,264.00 today.
Overall the dollar was stronger against global currencies, early today. Before London’s opening:
– The $: was stronger at $1.1157 after Friday’s $1.1227: 1.
– The Dollar index was stronger at 97.50 after Friday’s 97.08.
– The Yen was slightly stronger at 111.07 after Friday’s 111.10:$1.
– The Yuan was much stronger at 6.8546 after Friday’s 6.8615: $1.
– The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.2859 after yesterday’s $1.2871: 1.

Yuan Gold Fix
While Shanghai is closed we feel it opportune re-make an important point on what is going on with the authorities in China, with reference to overall markets there. China wants to gain a reputation of being a reliable, reputable source of prices. This, in the first place, means reducing the volatility, on a permanent basis, that characterized its markets. Its people have become deeply untrusting of equity markets due to its past extreme volatility.
This policy has taken priority over the freeing up of Capital Controls despite the desire to be a freely floating currency. Once Chinese markets have the reputation, sufficient to attract foreign investors on a comparable basis to the U. S., the Chinese will be able to open up their borders and, hopefully, be attractive to global investors. Dropping Capital Controls before that would make Chinese markets extremely vulnerable.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 30 May 2017.

How Would Engineers Build the Golden Gate Bridge Today?

Hota GangaRao, West Virginia University and Maria Martinez de Lahidalga de Lorenzo, West Virginia University
Ever since the Golden Gate Bridge opened to traffic on May 27, 1937, it’s been an iconic symbol on the American landscape.
By 1870, people had realized the necessity of building a bridge spanning the Golden Gate Strait to connect the city of San Francisco with Marin County. However, it was another half-century before structural engineer Joseph Strauss submitted his bridge proposal. The plans evolved, and the final project was approved as a suspension bridge that ended up taking over four years to build.
When the Golden Gate Bridge went up, it was the longest suspended bridge span in the world – cables hold up the roadway between two towers, with no intermediate supports. And the setting had a number of inherent challenges. It cost about US$37 million at the time; building the same structure today would cost about a billion dollars. So how has the design held up over the past 80 years – and would we do things differently if we were starting from scratch today?

This post was published at FinancialSense on 05/30/2017.

Goldman Accused Of Funding Maduro’s Dictatorship

In late April, the Venezuela opposition slammed attempts by the Maduro regime to liquidate some/all of the nation’s gold in order to buy his crumbling regime some additional time with much needed liquidity.
As we reported then, in a letter sent by National Assembly President and head of the Venezuela opposition to US banks, Julio Borges, the politician wrote that ‘the national government, through the central bank, is going to try to swap gold held as reserves for dollars to stay in power unconstitutionally. I have the obligation to warn you that by supporting such a gold swap you would be taking actions favoring a government that’s been recognized as dictatorial by the international community.’
Fast forward to this weekend, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Goldman Sachs had bought some $2.8 billion in bonds issued by state oil company PDVSA that mature in 2022, paying 31 cents on the dollar or around $865 million. The price represented a 31% discount to trading Venezuelan securities that mature the same year, and would result in a staggering annual yield of more than 40%.
The purchase came as Maduro’s detractors have been pleading with international financial institutions to avoid any transactions that might help a government accused of human-rights abuses. It also prompted Julio Borges to accuse bank Goldman Sachs of “aiding and abetting the country’s dictatorial regime.”
“Goldman Sachs’ financial lifeline to the regime will serve to strengthen the brutal repression unleashed against the hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans peacefully protesting for political change in the country,” wrote Julio Borges in a letter to Goldman Sachs President Lloyd Blankfein.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 30, 2017.

Gold Production Drops Sharply in Australia

old supply took another hit, as output in Australia mine production slumped in the first quarter of this year.
Output fell 8% in Australia, according to data released on Sunday by Australian mining consultancy Surbiton Associates. Australian mines produced 71.5 tons in Q1. This was a drop from 77.5 tons in the previous quarter.
Analysts blamed bad weather for the slump.
This year heavy rain in Western Australia, which accounts for about three-quarters of Australia’s gold output, plus the effects of Cyclone Debbie in Queensland in late-March, played havoc with gold production at many operations across the country,’ Surbiton director Sandra Close told Reuters.

Australia ranks as the world’s number two gold producing country behind China.
Mine output also dropped sharply in China in the first quarter. According to a rare report issued by the China Gold Association, the country’s first quarter gold production dropped 9.3% year-on-year, falling from 111.563 tons in Q1 2016 to 101.197 tons this year. Meanwhile demand surged 14.7% in the Asian nation.

This post was published at Schiffgold on MAY 30, 2017.

Is This The “Mystery” Massive Long Supporting The Oil Market?

Usually when CFTC data shows a big speculative position, it is easy to spot the corresponding mood amongst traders. For example, take the current situation with the Canadian dollar. There are record net speculative shorts, and that bias is obvious amongst hedge funds and other professional traders.
However, over the past few years, I have been puzzled by the building of a massive record net long speculative position in the WTI crude oil market.
The monster speculative long position doesn’t correspond to the general attitude amongst traders. In fact, without looking at the data, I would argue most specs are negative towards crude oil. The data does not jive with my anecdotal evidence.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 30, 2017.