Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Winning…. – The Great Dictator

“Then, in the name of democracy, let us use that power – let us all unite. Let us fight for a new world, a decent world that will give men a chance to work, that will give youth a future and old age a security. By the promise of these things, brutes have risen to power. But they lie! They do not fulfill that promise. They never will!”
Charlie Chaplin, The Great Dictator
Stocks managed to rally back off their losses to close largely unchanged.
Gold and silver held relatively steady in price.
Trump named Jay Powell as the new Fed Chair today.
Tomorrow is the Non-Farm Payrolls report.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 02 NOVEMBER 2017.

Why Switzerland Could Save the World and Protect Your Gold

– Precious metals advisor Claudio Grass believes Switzerland can serve as an example to rest of world
– Switzerland popular for gold storage due to understanding of the risks inherent in fiat money and gold’s value as a store of wealth.
– International investors opt to store gold in Swiss allocated accounts due to tradition of respecting private property.
– Country respects the importance of gold ownerships and 70% of world’s gold is refined there
Across Europe many voters and politicians are expressing their dislike at the bureaucratic and overarching approach of the European Union. There are also regions and countries pushing to break ties with others that they have long been associated with. Catalonia is just the most recent example, many in Scotland are also calling for independence.
It is not an understatement to say that the role and influence of government is currently at the forefront of many citizens’ minds. This is understandable given political upheaval but also thanks to decisions by authorities that are arguably not in the best interests of the electorate. Bail-ins are just one very important example.

This post was published at Gold Core on November 2, 2017.

Gold, Goldmoney and Men

Gold, ornamentation and money: that was the sequence of events. Man discovered gold, found it malleable, durable and attractive. It was first used for ornamentation, then as social economics evolved into the division of labour, its value as ornamentation and its physical properties made it the most enduring medium for money. Even to this day, Asians representing most of the world’s population still understand this connection between gold, ornamentation and money.
Goldmoney has recently backed a new venture, Men. Men manufactures and retails gold and platinum jewellery at prices tied to market values for the physical metal, with a buy-back option, again linked to the market price. The objective is to re-establish the link between the use of precious metals as money and as a medium of exchange. (Please refer to the disclosure note at the end of this article.)

This post was published at GoldMoney on November 01, 2017.

Will The New Bitcoin CME Futures Contract Benefit Gold?

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced a plan to launch Bitcoin futures by the end of the year. The price of Bitcoin surged to a new record in response to the announcement. It was reminiscent of the dot.com era, when a dot.com stock would jump 10% if Maria Bartiromo merely whispered the name of the company on CNBC.
Ironically, the cheers for this new contract from the Bitcoin faithful could turn out to be analogous to chickens in the barnyard cheering at the appearance of Colonel Sanders.
GATA released an article about the new Bitcoin futures contract titled ‘So Long Cryptos.’ I’m sure that editorial stance puzzled most Bitcoin price-momentum chasers. Crypto aficionados, for now, overlook the fact that CME futures are used aggressively to push around the dollar-based Comex gold and silver futures contracts.
As GATA points out, the ability to manipulate precious metals futures contracts by the official entities motivated to suppress the price of gold is reinforced by the volume trading discounts given from the CME to Governments and Central Banks who trade on the CME.

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on November 1, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Hi Ho Nickel?

Put another nickel in
In the nickelodeon
All I want is having you
And music, music, music.
Teresa Brewer, Music, Music, Music
“A nickel’s not worth a dime anymore.”
Yogi Berra
The FOMC did nothing with rates, but remarked that in their judgement the growth in the economy has changed from ‘moderate’ to ‘solid.’ The market is looking for a rate increase at the December meeting.
I am solidly willing to speculate that the Fed will flip their judgement faster than a flapjack in a NJ diner in the not too distant future. But let’s see what happens.
The markets are widely pricing in a rate increase from the Bank of England this week. Let’s see if they get it.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 01 NOVEMBER 2017.

Gold and Silver Get Powelled – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

Rumors Driving Short Term Price Swings
The prices of the metals dropped a bit more this week, -$7 and -$0.16. We all know the dollar is going down, that it is the stated policy of the Federal Reserve to make it go down. We all know that gold has been valued for thousands of years. So why do we measure the timeless metal in terms of paper currency?
It should be the other way around. We therefore encourage people to think of the price of the dollar measured in gold, rather than the price of gold measured in dollars. Last week, the dollar was up to 24.43 milligrams of gold.
On Friday, a curious thing happened. A report came out that Jerome Powell, who is on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, is now the leading candidate to replace Janet Yellen as Chairman. This was deemed by the market to be good for gold and especially silver. Powell is not only an establishment guy, he has been part of the decision making body which has brought you the monetary policy which has caused/coincided with the drop in the price of gold from $1,558 when he took office.
Presumably the reason why he is a candidate, and the reason why the gold market bid up the price of gold, is that he will continue the current central plan. This plan could be charitably dubbed ‘monetary largesse’. Notwithstanding the theory held by both the mainstream Fed apologists and alternative Fed critics, this policy has not resulted in skyrocketing prices of either consumer goods or gold. But no matter, the likely appointment of the mainstream insider (as opposed to the other leading candidate, John Taylor, who is an academic and not a Fed official) is good news. For gold. For now.

This post was published at Acting-Man on October 31, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Per Ipsum et cum Ipso et in Ipso

‘Like a snake eating its own tail, the equity market cannot rely on share buybacks indefinitely to nourish the illusion of growth.”
Chris Cole, Artemis Capital
“Of course big bank stocks are ‘overvalued’ in terms of earnings or revenues, but do such measures really matter in a world without value? When you have global central banks gunning all asset prices in a desperate effort to avoid a sovereign debt default starting in Japan and then Europe, pedestrian metrics like price/earnings ratios and net-present value have little relevance…
The growing pile of public debt in the US is why price stability will never be part of the mix – unless and until the Treasury is forced to live within its means. This is also why dollar-alternatives like bitcoin, imperfect and even fraudulent as they may be, will continue to capture the attention of those seeking to escape the economic tyranny of fiat paper money.”
Chris Whalen, Institutional Risk Analyst
If you did not watch the World Series game last night, with the walkoff 13-12 win by the Astros, you missed one of the best offensive battles in postseason play that I have ever seen.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 30 OCTOBER 2017.

Why Gold Prices Could Rebound Once the Dollar Loses Steam

Gold prices are coming off their second straight weekly loss as the dollar continues to rally from its Sept. 8 bottom. The metal dropped 0.7% from Friday, Oct. 20, to Friday, Oct. 27.
But you can’t say I didn’t warn you. I’ve been telling you for some time that the U. S. dollar had likely bottomed at that two-and-a-half-year low on Sept. 8 after an eight-month sell-off that began early this year.
Simply put, the dollar bear trade had gotten overly crowded and was due for a countertrend rally. That’s why the U. S. Dollar Index (DXY) is up from 91.35 on Sept. 8 to 94.75 today (Monday, Oct. 30).
The index is up an impressive 3.7% over nearly two months, and I think it will likely run even higher. Its momentum has been the biggest obstacle keeping gold from regaining – and holding – the $1,300 level.
We also have Trump’s new tax cuts, which could make their way through Congress soon. The Dow Jones is up 2.2% in the last two weeks in anticipation of lower taxes, sucking away investor interest from precious metals and dragging prices lower.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on October 30, 2017.

SWOT Analysis: What a Higher Budget Deficit Means For Gold

Strengths
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, down slightly by 0.42 percent. Germany’s BASF noted that the automotive industry appears to be responding to the price surge in palladium this year and are slowing down purchases. According to Bloomberg, gold traders and analysts are bearish for the first time in four weeks as the dollar strengthens. The passing of the U. S. budget by the Senate lifted hopes by boosting risk sentiment and pushing yields higher. Joni Teves of UBS says a large fiscal package is a key downside risk for gold as it would result in a higher policy rate path. Even though there has been a pullback in gold prices, large buy orders came into the market two times this week and spiked prices higher. On Monday, 18,1792 gold contracts were traded in a span of five minutes and on Wednesday another 21,129 contracts were traded. Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals trading at BMO Capital Markets, bets the dollar is going to retrace and it will be good for gold. Paul Wright, former CEO of Eldorado Gold Corp., will resign from his board position after 20 years at the company and just months after resigning as CEO. Although stock value tripled during his tenure, Wright’s late career was marked by a high-profile dispute with the Greek government after investing over $2 billion in the country. Following the results of the European Central Bank meeting, gold is seeing some selling pressure and trade surging after the dollar index rallied.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 30 October 2017.

The Big Macro Play Ahead

At NFTRH, we are about major macro turning points above all else. Of course, it is often years between these turning points or points of significant change so we are also about the here and now, and managing the trends, Old Turkey style.*
Since we are all learning all the time, I have no problem admitting to you that while right and bullish on commodities and stocks in 2009, after becoming bullish on the precious metals in Q4 2008, I completely ignored Old Turkey due to my inner biases. The result has been that after taking excellent profits from the precious metals bull, personally, I have greatly under performed the stock market bull despite holding a bullish analytical view for the majority of the post-2012 period.
Undeterred and ever plucky, we move forward. Currently, I play the bullish stock market like millions of other casino patrons, but this is as a trader and portfolio balancer, with the goal always to be in line with the macro backdrop of currency moves (I’ve been very long the US dollar for a few months now) and Treasury/Government bond yields and yield relationships.
This week something happened that has gotten me geeked out like at no other time since Q4 2008, when it was time to put the real precious metals fundamental view (as opposed to commonly accepted gold bug versions) to the test and go all-in. This week, assuming it is confirmed by remaining active through the FOMC next week, we got a short-term signal in Treasury bond yields that starts the clock ticking on a big macro decision point, which may include an end to the stock mania and the beginning of a sustained bull phase in the gold sector, among other things.
But first, we need to understand that the macro moves at an incredibly slow pace and one challenge I have had is to manage what I see clearly out ahead with the extended periods of intact current trend that seem to take forever to change. We as humans (and quants, algos, black boxes, casino patrons and mom & pop) are increasingly encouraged to try to compute massive amounts of information in real time and distill a market view from that at any given time, all at the behest of an overly aggressive financial media that wants to harvest your over exposed, bloodshot eyeballs on a daily, no hourly basis.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 27 October 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – FANG’d

“Und der Haifisch, der hat Zhne
und die trgt er im Gesicht
und Macheath, der hat ein Messer
doch das Messer sieht man nicht.”
Berthold Brecht, Die Moritat von Mackie Messer, 1928
The results after the bell last night from the usual big cap tech suspects lit a fire until the Nasdaq 100, as you can see from the chart below.
That is the look of real pain for the big cap tech bears.
There will be an FOMC meeting next week. President Trump has also indicated that he will be naming the next Fed Chair.
And as usual with the beginning of a new month, we will be having a Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday November 3.
Have a pleasant weekend.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 27 OCTOBER 2017.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PRECIOUS METALS MARKET: Where We Go From Here

As the U. S. Stock Market Bubble continues upward toward a giant pin, there are some interesting developments that precious metals investors will find quite interesting. Yes, there’s still a lot of life left in the precious metals, even though pessimistic market sentiment has frustrated a lot of gold and silver investors.
Also, even though precious metals investment demand in the U. S. has fallen 40+% compared to the same time last year, it continues to be strong in other parts of the world. For example, German physical gold bar and coin demand increased 8% in the first half of 2017 versus the same period last year, while U. S. fell by 45%. Moreover, flows into European Gold ETF’s hit a record during the second quarter of 2017:

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on OCTOBER 27, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – After the Bell – A Cross of Iron

“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement. We pay for a single fighter with a half-million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people…
This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.”
Dwight D. Eisenhower, 16 April 1953
The big tickle today was the strength in the Dollar index based on Euro weakness, thanks to Monsieur Draghi.
There was a minor option expiration for gold on the Comex today. I do not think that drove the action in the metals, compared to the big spike in the Dollar.
After the bell we will be seeing some big earnings announcements including Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Intel.
CVS Health is in talks to buy Aetna. More consolidation in the health/insurance sector, under the title of ‘vertical integration’ which is a finer sounding title for ‘monopolization.’

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 26 OCTOBER 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – After the Bell

The big tickle today was the strength in the Dollar index based on Euro weakness, thanks to Monsieur Draghi.
There was a minor option expiration for gold on the Comex today. I do not think that drove the action in the metals, compared to the big spike in the Dollar.
After the bell we will be seeing some big earnings announcements including Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Intel.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 26 OCTOBER 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – We’ll Always Have Paris

For whatever reason, and I have some thoughts along those lines, the powers-that-be in American finance and politics are terrified of a decline in the US stock markets, ever since the election of His Donaldship.
And so once again this bloated pig of a market continued to float just above the dangerous waters of correction and disappointment, even one so slight it appears.
This year is the 75th anniversary of the movie Casablanca.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 25 OCTOBER 2017.

Stagnation Nation: Middle Class Wealth Is Locked Up in Housing and Retirement Funds

The majority of middle class wealth is locked up in unproductive assets or assets that only become available upon retirement or death.
One of my points in Why Governments Will Not Ban Bitcoin was to highlight how few families had the financial wherewithal to invest in bitcoin or an alternative hedge such as precious metals.
The limitation on middle class wealth isn’t just the total net worth of each family; it’s also how their wealth is allocated: the vast majority of most middle class family wealth is locked up in the family home or retirement funds. This chart provides key insights into the differences between middle class and upper-class wealth. The majority of the wealth held by the bottom 90% of households is in the family home, i.e. the principal residence. Other major assets held include life insurance policies, pension accounts and deposits (savings).
What characterizes the family home, insurance policies and pension/retirement accounts? The wealth is largely locked up in these asset classes.
Yes, the family can borrow against these assets, but then interest accrues and the wealth is siphoned off by the loans. Early withdrawals from retirement funds trigger punishing penalties.

This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on TUESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – As Greed Turns Slowly to Fear

‘Every single empire in its official discourse has said that it is not like all the others, that its circumstances are special, that it has a mission to enlighten, civilize, bring order and democracy, and that it uses force only as a last resort. And, sadder still, there always is a chorus of willing intellectuals to say calming words about benign or altruistic empires, as if one shouldn’t trust the evidence of one’s eyes watching the destruction and the misery and death brought by the latest mission civilisatrice .’
Edward Said
“The wealth of another region excites their greed; and if it is weak, their lust for power as well. Nothing from the rising to the setting of the sun is enough for them. Among all others only they are compelled to attack the poor as well as the rich. Robbery, rape, and slaughter they falsely call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace.”
Tacitus

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 24 OCTOBER 2017.

How Trump’s Tax Cuts Could Impact the Gold Price Before 2018

As expected, the gold price has struggled to regain the $1,300 level last week, but it won’t stay below that price for long…
After reaching a monthly high of $1,305 on Friday, Oct. 13, the metal fell 1.8% last week to close at $1,281 on Friday, Oct. 20.
Sentiment toward gold prices is badly bruised as stocks continue to make new highs, causing interest in precious metals to wane. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at new record highs every trading session last week, gaining 1.9% over the five-day period.
Although the U. S. dollar has been mostly sideways for the past month, it has regained some strength in the past week. The U. S. Dollar Index (DXY) – which tracks the dollar against the euro, Swiss franc, and other currencies – is up from 93.09 on Oct. 13 to 93.90 today (Monday, Oct. 23).
Part of the dollar’s rally comes from renewed talk of passing U. S. President Donald Trump’s promised tax cuts. Last Friday, the GOP-controlled Senate approved a budget measure that would let Republicans start drawing up a tax-cut plan without support from Democrats.
In my view, the price of gold will likely stagnate over the next few weeks. News around the tax cuts and the 91.7% chance of a December rate hike should support the dollar and stocks, attracting money away from the gold market.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on October 23, 2017.

Gold Is Better Store of Value Than Bitcoin – Goldman Sachs

– Gold is better store of value than bitcoin – Goldman Sachs report
– Gold will continue to perform well thanks to uncertainty and wealth demand
– Bitcoin’s volatility continues to impact its role as money
– Gold up 12% in 2017, bitcoin over 600%
– BTC is six times more volatile than gold – see chart
– Gold’s history and physical property shows it meets requirements as a medium of exchange and store of value
Since the birth of bitcoin there has been one question that has repeatedly grabbed headlines and led debates all over the world – will bitcoin replace gold?
The latest to weigh in on this question is Goldman Sachs which, in a research note entitled ‘Fear and Wealth’, has concluded that gold is better than bitcoin.
Examining gold and bitcoin against the key characteristics of money, the report concludes that ‘Precious metals remain a relevant asset class in modern portfolios, despite their lack of yield… They are neither a historic accident or a relic.’
Goldman Sachs looked at four key properties of a long-term store of value – durability, portability, intrinsic value and unit of account – concluding that the reasons why gold was originally adopted remain relevant to today.

This post was published at Gold Core on October 24, 2017.

Are ICOs Replacing IPOs?

Last week I was in Barcelona speaking at the LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference, which was attended by approximately 700 metals and mining firms from all over the globe. I found the event energizing and stimulating, full of contrary views on topics ranging from macroeconomics to physical investment markets to cryptocurrencies.
My keynote address focused on quant investing in gold mining and the booming initial coin offering (ICO) market. I’m thrilled to share with you that the presentation was voted the best, for which I was awarded an ounce of gold. I want to thank the London Bullion Market Association, its members and conference attendees for this honor.
Speaking of gold and cryptocurrencies, the LBMA conducted several interesting polls on which of the two assets would benefit the most in certain scenarios. In one such poll, attendees overwhelmingly said the gold price would skyrocket in the event of a conflict involving nuclear weapons. Bitcoin, meanwhile, would plummet, according to participants – which makes some sense. As I pointed out before, trading bitcoin and other cryptos isdependent on electricity and WiFi, both of which could easily be knocked out by a nuclear strike. Gold, however, would still be available to convert into cash.
It’s a horrific thought, but the poll results show that the investment case for gold as a store of value remains favorable. Goldman Sachs echoed the idea last week, writing in a note to investors that ‘precious metals remain a relevant asset class in modern portfolios, despite their lack of yield.’ The investment bank added that precious metals ‘are still the best long-term store of value out of the known elements.’

This post was published at GoldSeek on Tuesday, 24 October 2017.