A Different Powelling – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report

New Chief Monetary Bureaucrat Goes from Good to Bad for Silver
The prices of the metals ended all but unchanged last week, though they hit spike highs on Thursday. Particularly silver his $17.24 before falling back 43 cents, to close at $16.82.
It was not a gentle fall back. In about an hour and fifteen minutes on Friday morning (as we Arizonans reckon the time), the price of silver dropped from $17.16 to $16.76. Was this a case of the infamous manipulation we’ve all read about? We can’t tell you who did it, but we can show you a clear picture of what happened.
In any case, it seems that either Fed chairman appointee Powell is not good for silver, or else that the price of silver has little to do with continuation of current Fed (central) planning.
Fundamental Developments
We will look at intraday gold and silver supply and demand fundamentals. But first, here are the charts of the prices of gold and silver, and the gold-silver ratio.

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 7, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – The King In Yellow

“Love is not easy; it is not our natural state. It seems weak and foolish, and is despicable to the fallen of this world and the next, who by the declaration of their hearts and minds say non serviam, I will not serve.”
Jesse, Love Is the Refuge of the Way
Stocks bubbled sideways today, digesting the recent gains, and treading water as additional earnings and economic news comes out.
I have made no secret of it, that the US equity markets seem very fully valued at this point, and are overdue for a stiff correction in the neighborhood of ten percent. That they have not even had a 3 percent correction in quite some time is a testimony to the amount of hot money and speculative froth underpinning them.
Peak hubris. We’re there on a number of fronts, socially, financially, and politically. I have not seen anything like this since the tech stock bubble. The housing bubble was much broader and deeper, and much more profound in the levels of its corruption. This one seems more like an ‘echo bubble.’ In all three instances the primary actors were the Wall Street financiers, the Banks, and the Fed.
The amount of potentially destabilizing situations geopolitically are daunting, almost breath-taking. I won’t bother to list them here, but things in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe are showing signs of heaving the landscape out of place. Domestically things in the US are much more tense under the surface than anything I can remember in many years. The elite are doubling down on their winnings with a kind of race to the oncoming wall of bad karma.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 07 NOVEMBER 2017.

The USD-Reports of its death have been greatly exaggerated

By Plunger
In deference to Mark Twain, I will review the USD, general stock market, precious metals, the electric metals and various other topics. In the past two weeks Rambus has been so prolific with such high impact charts that I find it a challenge to offer value added material so I offer charts with some different perspectives.
USD-No I Am NOT Dead Yet!
Currencies tend to be a very emotional subject. I try to be objective when analyzing them, sticking to the language of the market and it’s message. It is always important to guard against the gold bug narrative, it can even influence our views of currencies. Demanding posts insisting the USD is toast and immediately headed towards history’s ash heap seem closely related to this gold bug narrative. The USD has spent the first 8 months of 2017 in a well defined downtrend, however it does not appear to be in a death spiral. Actually the shouting and insistence that it must continue down has been a fairly predictable sign that its move downward was reaching its limit. The dollar may have now completed a base and is set to continue its move higher. This is not dogma as it could reverse downward, but for now it’s making all the right moves if the trend is higher.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Monday, 6 November 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Just Stand

“In our own times we see that politicians raised under neoliberalism are unwilling and unable to effectively use real Keynesian policies: they can’t do stimulus, when they try, they give the money primarily to the rich.
They grew to power by being neoliberals; faced with new times they cannot change. In France we saw the main center-left party (really a neoliberal party) implode because it would just not change, and throughout the West center-left neoliberal parties are dying for just this reason. The world has changed, the people who run those parties cannot change…
Our societies have failed to run themselves acceptably since 2008, and the youngs have no attachment to the status quo since it never ever worked for them. Change is thus not only possible, it is now inevitable.”
Ian Welsh, When People and Societies Change
Stocks were rallying off the jobs report.
The American dream is now a nation of low paid bartenders and waitresses, living from paycheck to paycheck, and preyed upon by corporate behemoths in healthcare, housing, and finance.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 03 NOVEMBER 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Winning…. – The Great Dictator

“Then, in the name of democracy, let us use that power – let us all unite. Let us fight for a new world, a decent world that will give men a chance to work, that will give youth a future and old age a security. By the promise of these things, brutes have risen to power. But they lie! They do not fulfill that promise. They never will!”
Charlie Chaplin, The Great Dictator
Stocks managed to rally back off their losses to close largely unchanged.
Gold and silver held relatively steady in price.
Trump named Jay Powell as the new Fed Chair today.
Tomorrow is the Non-Farm Payrolls report.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 02 NOVEMBER 2017.

Why Switzerland Could Save the World and Protect Your Gold

– Precious metals advisor Claudio Grass believes Switzerland can serve as an example to rest of world
– Switzerland popular for gold storage due to understanding of the risks inherent in fiat money and gold’s value as a store of wealth.
– International investors opt to store gold in Swiss allocated accounts due to tradition of respecting private property.
– Country respects the importance of gold ownerships and 70% of world’s gold is refined there
Across Europe many voters and politicians are expressing their dislike at the bureaucratic and overarching approach of the European Union. There are also regions and countries pushing to break ties with others that they have long been associated with. Catalonia is just the most recent example, many in Scotland are also calling for independence.
It is not an understatement to say that the role and influence of government is currently at the forefront of many citizens’ minds. This is understandable given political upheaval but also thanks to decisions by authorities that are arguably not in the best interests of the electorate. Bail-ins are just one very important example.

This post was published at Gold Core on November 2, 2017.

Gold, Goldmoney and Men

Gold, ornamentation and money: that was the sequence of events. Man discovered gold, found it malleable, durable and attractive. It was first used for ornamentation, then as social economics evolved into the division of labour, its value as ornamentation and its physical properties made it the most enduring medium for money. Even to this day, Asians representing most of the world’s population still understand this connection between gold, ornamentation and money.
Goldmoney has recently backed a new venture, Men. Men manufactures and retails gold and platinum jewellery at prices tied to market values for the physical metal, with a buy-back option, again linked to the market price. The objective is to re-establish the link between the use of precious metals as money and as a medium of exchange. (Please refer to the disclosure note at the end of this article.)

This post was published at GoldMoney on November 01, 2017.

Will The New Bitcoin CME Futures Contract Benefit Gold?

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced a plan to launch Bitcoin futures by the end of the year. The price of Bitcoin surged to a new record in response to the announcement. It was reminiscent of the dot.com era, when a dot.com stock would jump 10% if Maria Bartiromo merely whispered the name of the company on CNBC.
Ironically, the cheers for this new contract from the Bitcoin faithful could turn out to be analogous to chickens in the barnyard cheering at the appearance of Colonel Sanders.
GATA released an article about the new Bitcoin futures contract titled ‘So Long Cryptos.’ I’m sure that editorial stance puzzled most Bitcoin price-momentum chasers. Crypto aficionados, for now, overlook the fact that CME futures are used aggressively to push around the dollar-based Comex gold and silver futures contracts.
As GATA points out, the ability to manipulate precious metals futures contracts by the official entities motivated to suppress the price of gold is reinforced by the volume trading discounts given from the CME to Governments and Central Banks who trade on the CME.

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on November 1, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Hi Ho Nickel?

Put another nickel in
In the nickelodeon
All I want is having you
And music, music, music.
Teresa Brewer, Music, Music, Music
“A nickel’s not worth a dime anymore.”
Yogi Berra
The FOMC did nothing with rates, but remarked that in their judgement the growth in the economy has changed from ‘moderate’ to ‘solid.’ The market is looking for a rate increase at the December meeting.
I am solidly willing to speculate that the Fed will flip their judgement faster than a flapjack in a NJ diner in the not too distant future. But let’s see what happens.
The markets are widely pricing in a rate increase from the Bank of England this week. Let’s see if they get it.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 01 NOVEMBER 2017.

Gold and Silver Get Powelled – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

Rumors Driving Short Term Price Swings
The prices of the metals dropped a bit more this week, -$7 and -$0.16. We all know the dollar is going down, that it is the stated policy of the Federal Reserve to make it go down. We all know that gold has been valued for thousands of years. So why do we measure the timeless metal in terms of paper currency?
It should be the other way around. We therefore encourage people to think of the price of the dollar measured in gold, rather than the price of gold measured in dollars. Last week, the dollar was up to 24.43 milligrams of gold.
On Friday, a curious thing happened. A report came out that Jerome Powell, who is on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, is now the leading candidate to replace Janet Yellen as Chairman. This was deemed by the market to be good for gold and especially silver. Powell is not only an establishment guy, he has been part of the decision making body which has brought you the monetary policy which has caused/coincided with the drop in the price of gold from $1,558 when he took office.
Presumably the reason why he is a candidate, and the reason why the gold market bid up the price of gold, is that he will continue the current central plan. This plan could be charitably dubbed ‘monetary largesse’. Notwithstanding the theory held by both the mainstream Fed apologists and alternative Fed critics, this policy has not resulted in skyrocketing prices of either consumer goods or gold. But no matter, the likely appointment of the mainstream insider (as opposed to the other leading candidate, John Taylor, who is an academic and not a Fed official) is good news. For gold. For now.

This post was published at Acting-Man on October 31, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Per Ipsum et cum Ipso et in Ipso

‘Like a snake eating its own tail, the equity market cannot rely on share buybacks indefinitely to nourish the illusion of growth.”
Chris Cole, Artemis Capital
“Of course big bank stocks are ‘overvalued’ in terms of earnings or revenues, but do such measures really matter in a world without value? When you have global central banks gunning all asset prices in a desperate effort to avoid a sovereign debt default starting in Japan and then Europe, pedestrian metrics like price/earnings ratios and net-present value have little relevance…
The growing pile of public debt in the US is why price stability will never be part of the mix – unless and until the Treasury is forced to live within its means. This is also why dollar-alternatives like bitcoin, imperfect and even fraudulent as they may be, will continue to capture the attention of those seeking to escape the economic tyranny of fiat paper money.”
Chris Whalen, Institutional Risk Analyst
If you did not watch the World Series game last night, with the walkoff 13-12 win by the Astros, you missed one of the best offensive battles in postseason play that I have ever seen.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 30 OCTOBER 2017.

Why Gold Prices Could Rebound Once the Dollar Loses Steam

Gold prices are coming off their second straight weekly loss as the dollar continues to rally from its Sept. 8 bottom. The metal dropped 0.7% from Friday, Oct. 20, to Friday, Oct. 27.
But you can’t say I didn’t warn you. I’ve been telling you for some time that the U. S. dollar had likely bottomed at that two-and-a-half-year low on Sept. 8 after an eight-month sell-off that began early this year.
Simply put, the dollar bear trade had gotten overly crowded and was due for a countertrend rally. That’s why the U. S. Dollar Index (DXY) is up from 91.35 on Sept. 8 to 94.75 today (Monday, Oct. 30).
The index is up an impressive 3.7% over nearly two months, and I think it will likely run even higher. Its momentum has been the biggest obstacle keeping gold from regaining – and holding – the $1,300 level.
We also have Trump’s new tax cuts, which could make their way through Congress soon. The Dow Jones is up 2.2% in the last two weeks in anticipation of lower taxes, sucking away investor interest from precious metals and dragging prices lower.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on October 30, 2017.

SWOT Analysis: What a Higher Budget Deficit Means For Gold

Strengths
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, down slightly by 0.42 percent. Germany’s BASF noted that the automotive industry appears to be responding to the price surge in palladium this year and are slowing down purchases. According to Bloomberg, gold traders and analysts are bearish for the first time in four weeks as the dollar strengthens. The passing of the U. S. budget by the Senate lifted hopes by boosting risk sentiment and pushing yields higher. Joni Teves of UBS says a large fiscal package is a key downside risk for gold as it would result in a higher policy rate path. Even though there has been a pullback in gold prices, large buy orders came into the market two times this week and spiked prices higher. On Monday, 18,1792 gold contracts were traded in a span of five minutes and on Wednesday another 21,129 contracts were traded. Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals trading at BMO Capital Markets, bets the dollar is going to retrace and it will be good for gold. Paul Wright, former CEO of Eldorado Gold Corp., will resign from his board position after 20 years at the company and just months after resigning as CEO. Although stock value tripled during his tenure, Wright’s late career was marked by a high-profile dispute with the Greek government after investing over $2 billion in the country. Following the results of the European Central Bank meeting, gold is seeing some selling pressure and trade surging after the dollar index rallied.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 30 October 2017.

The Big Macro Play Ahead

At NFTRH, we are about major macro turning points above all else. Of course, it is often years between these turning points or points of significant change so we are also about the here and now, and managing the trends, Old Turkey style.*
Since we are all learning all the time, I have no problem admitting to you that while right and bullish on commodities and stocks in 2009, after becoming bullish on the precious metals in Q4 2008, I completely ignored Old Turkey due to my inner biases. The result has been that after taking excellent profits from the precious metals bull, personally, I have greatly under performed the stock market bull despite holding a bullish analytical view for the majority of the post-2012 period.
Undeterred and ever plucky, we move forward. Currently, I play the bullish stock market like millions of other casino patrons, but this is as a trader and portfolio balancer, with the goal always to be in line with the macro backdrop of currency moves (I’ve been very long the US dollar for a few months now) and Treasury/Government bond yields and yield relationships.
This week something happened that has gotten me geeked out like at no other time since Q4 2008, when it was time to put the real precious metals fundamental view (as opposed to commonly accepted gold bug versions) to the test and go all-in. This week, assuming it is confirmed by remaining active through the FOMC next week, we got a short-term signal in Treasury bond yields that starts the clock ticking on a big macro decision point, which may include an end to the stock mania and the beginning of a sustained bull phase in the gold sector, among other things.
But first, we need to understand that the macro moves at an incredibly slow pace and one challenge I have had is to manage what I see clearly out ahead with the extended periods of intact current trend that seem to take forever to change. We as humans (and quants, algos, black boxes, casino patrons and mom & pop) are increasingly encouraged to try to compute massive amounts of information in real time and distill a market view from that at any given time, all at the behest of an overly aggressive financial media that wants to harvest your over exposed, bloodshot eyeballs on a daily, no hourly basis.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 27 October 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – FANG’d

“Und der Haifisch, der hat Zhne
und die trgt er im Gesicht
und Macheath, der hat ein Messer
doch das Messer sieht man nicht.”
Berthold Brecht, Die Moritat von Mackie Messer, 1928
The results after the bell last night from the usual big cap tech suspects lit a fire until the Nasdaq 100, as you can see from the chart below.
That is the look of real pain for the big cap tech bears.
There will be an FOMC meeting next week. President Trump has also indicated that he will be naming the next Fed Chair.
And as usual with the beginning of a new month, we will be having a Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday November 3.
Have a pleasant weekend.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 27 OCTOBER 2017.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PRECIOUS METALS MARKET: Where We Go From Here

As the U. S. Stock Market Bubble continues upward toward a giant pin, there are some interesting developments that precious metals investors will find quite interesting. Yes, there’s still a lot of life left in the precious metals, even though pessimistic market sentiment has frustrated a lot of gold and silver investors.
Also, even though precious metals investment demand in the U. S. has fallen 40+% compared to the same time last year, it continues to be strong in other parts of the world. For example, German physical gold bar and coin demand increased 8% in the first half of 2017 versus the same period last year, while U. S. fell by 45%. Moreover, flows into European Gold ETF’s hit a record during the second quarter of 2017:

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on OCTOBER 27, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – After the Bell – A Cross of Iron

“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement. We pay for a single fighter with a half-million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people…
This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.”
Dwight D. Eisenhower, 16 April 1953
The big tickle today was the strength in the Dollar index based on Euro weakness, thanks to Monsieur Draghi.
There was a minor option expiration for gold on the Comex today. I do not think that drove the action in the metals, compared to the big spike in the Dollar.
After the bell we will be seeing some big earnings announcements including Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Intel.
CVS Health is in talks to buy Aetna. More consolidation in the health/insurance sector, under the title of ‘vertical integration’ which is a finer sounding title for ‘monopolization.’

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 26 OCTOBER 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – After the Bell

The big tickle today was the strength in the Dollar index based on Euro weakness, thanks to Monsieur Draghi.
There was a minor option expiration for gold on the Comex today. I do not think that drove the action in the metals, compared to the big spike in the Dollar.
After the bell we will be seeing some big earnings announcements including Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Intel.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 26 OCTOBER 2017.