• Tag Archives Libya
  • Global Stocks Rise, Copper Soars In Thin Holiday Volumes

    European stocks are steady in post-Christmas trading if struggling for traction after a mixed session in Asia, amid trading thinned by a holiday-shortened week and ongoing worries about the tech sector; however a strong rally in commodities – including copper and oil – buoyed expectations for a strong 2018 and helped offset concerns over the technology sector triggered by reports of soft iPhone X demand.
    U. S. equity futures nudged higher while the dollar weakened against most G-10 peers as investors await the release of U. S. consumer-confidence data, with much of the spotlight falling on commodity currencies. The OZ dollar holds onto gains as copper surges to a three-year high; oil retreats after reaching the highest close in more than two years following a pipeline explosion in Libya on Tuesday. Treasuries and core European core bond yields are a touch lower.
    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index edged lower, with tech stocks hit for the third day amid rumors of weak iPhone demand and leading the decline as chipmakers slumped after analysts lowered iPhone X shipment projections, sending the Nasdaq Composite Index lower overnight. While mining and oil stocks strengthened due to a surge in copper prices to a 3.5 year high (see below), the European STOXX 600 index slipped 0.1% as European tech stocks tumbled on reports that demand for Apple’s iPhone X may be weaker than expected. The equity benchmark index is poised for an annual gain of 8.1%, the best advance in four years. Elsewhere, Volvo rose as China’s Geely bought Cevian’s stake in the truckmaker, making it Volvo AB’s largest stakeholder. IWG surged the most since 2009 after confirming it has received a a non-binding takeover offer from a consortium backed by Brookfield Asset Management and Onex.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 27, 2017.

  • The Integrated Non-USD Platforms

    The many new integrated non-USD platforms devised and constructed by China finally have critical mass. They threaten the King Dollar as global currency reserve. Clearly, the USDollar cannot be displaced in trade and banking without a viable replacement for widespread daily usage. Two years ago, critics could not point to a viable integrated system outside the USD realm. Now they can. The integration of commercial, construction, financial, transaction, investment, and even security systems can finally be described as having critical mass in displacing the USDollar. The King Dollar faces competition of a very real nature. The Jackass has promoted a major theme in the last several months, that of the Dual Universe. At first the USGovt will admit that it cannot fight the non-USD movement globally. To do so with forceful means would involve sanctions against multiple nations, and a war with both Russia & China. Their value together is formidable in halting the financial battles from becoming a global war. The United States prefers to invade and destroy indefensible nations like Libya, Iraq, Ukraine, Syria, and by proxy Yemen. The USMilitary appears formidable against undeveloped nations, seeking to destroy their infra-structure and their entire economies, in pursuit of the common Langley theme of destabilization. In the process, the USMilitary since the Korean War has killed 25 million civilians, a figure receiving increased publicity. The Eastern nations and the opponents to US financial hegemony will not tolerate the abuse any longer. They have been organizing on a massive scale in the last several years. Ironically, the absent stability can be seen in the United States after coming full circle. The deep division of good versus evil, of honest versus corrupt, of renewed development versus endless war, has come to light front and center within numerous important USGovt offices and agencies.
    The shape of the US nation will change with the loss of the USDollar’s status as global currency reserve. The starting point for the global resistance against the King Dollar was 9/11 and the onset of the War on Terror. It has been more aptly described as a war of terror waged by the USGovt as a smokescreen for global narcotics monopoly and tighter control of USD movements. Then later, following the Lehman failure (killjob by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs) and the installation of the Zero Interest Rate Policy and Quantitative Easing as fixed monetary policies, the community of nations has been objecting fiercely. The zero bound on rates greatly distorted all asset valuations and financial markets. The hyper monetary inflation works to destroy capital in recognized steps. These (ZIRP & QE) are last ditch desperation policies designed to enable much larger liquidity for the insolvent banking structures. Without them, the big US banks would suffer failure. They also provide cover for the amplified relief efforts directed at the multi-$trillion derivative mountain. In no way, can the global tolerate unbridled monetary inflation which undermines the global banking reserves.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 26 December 2017.

  • WTI/RBOB Plunge On Saudi, Russia Comments; Rig Count Resumes Decline

    WTI and RBOB are plunging following comments from the Saudi minister that “he doesn’t know” if November meeting will agree on a production cut deal extension, and Russia’s Novak confirmed that there is “no clarity” on a deal extension.
    Saudi Arabia will work with Russia to reach a consensus in the next few weeks before the Nov. 30 OPEC/non-OPEC meeting in Vienna, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih says at a meeting with Russian counterpart Alexander Novak in Moscow. OPEC and non-OPEC producers will discuss ‘what to do beyond March’ at that meeting: Al-Falih
    Both ministers say it’s too early to say whether or not the November meeting will yield an agreement to extend the production cuts
    Amid higher OPEC production and the prompt return of supplies from Libya, futures prices are under pressure.
    After last week’s surprise rise (+6) in the rig count, the US Oil rig count declined by 2 this week to 748…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 6, 2017.

  • WTI Tumbles Below $50 To 3-Week Lows

    On the heels of continued dollar strength, output increases by OPEC (and US production at 2 year highs), and Libya restarting its biggest oilfield, WTI prices are tumbling for the 3rd time this week, back below $50 to their lowest in 3 weeks…
    As Bloomberg notes, while oil rallied into a bull market last month on the prospect of stronger demand, prices struggled to hold above $52 a barrel as supply grew from the U. S. and two members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that are exempt from making cuts.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 6, 2017.

  • Oil Just Plunged To A $48 Handle After Survey Suggests OPEC Output Jumped In July

    Extending losses from Goldman’s overnight report noting the minimal impact of Venezuelan sanctions, WTI crude just crashed below $49 on heavy volume after Bloomberg reports that a survey suggests that OPEC’s July oil output rose by 210K to 32.87mmb/d, led by growth in Libya who upped production by 180Kb/d to the highest since June 2013.
    The recovery of crude production from Libya is undermining OPEC’s efforts to curb its output as the African nation pumps unabated.
    Total crude production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in July rose 210,000 barrels a day from June to reach 32.87 million barrels a day, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.

  • Global Stocks Rise Amid Strong Economic Data; Yen Drops To 2 Month Low As Oil Resumes Slide

    In a quiet overnight session, S&P 500 futures are fractionally in the green (2,426, +0.2%) with European and Asian stocks as oil drops second day after an initial ramp higher amid speculation that LIbya and Nigeria may be asked to cap their production. Nasdaq 100 Index are again higher, following the biggest daily advance in more than a week, up 0.4% as of 6:20 a.m. in New York.
    With Friday’s jobs data seen as largely favorable, and the lack of wage growth expected to keep the Fed subdued, focus is turning to Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and a meeting of Canada’s central bank on Wednesday for the latest policy signals from the world’s major central banks. Over the past two weeks, markets have reassessed the outlook for tighter monetary policies from major central banks following a string of hawkish remarks. “We’ll see just how much substance there is to these comments on Wednesday, when the Bank of Canada announces its latest decision, with investors now expecting a 25 basis point increase,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. A rate rise from Canada’s central would be its first interest rate rise in nearly seven years
    Global macro markets have traded with a cautiously positive tone as weekend’s G-20 meeting ended without market-moving surprises, while continued hawkish sentiment has pushed benchmark yields modestly higher. The yen slipped to fresh 2-month low against the dollar, trading at 114.22, after trade deficit data and BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that policy could be adjusted as needed. In Asia, stocks rose in Tokyo and Sydney, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 0.3% after hitting a five-week low Friday. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.4 percent while Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.8 percent to a one-week high helped by weakness in the Japanese currency; the Topix Index added 0.5% . Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.7 percent, while shares on the mainland declined 0.2% after the PBOC drained net 30 billion yuan in liquidity after withholding open market operations for the 12th consecutive day even as the yuan strengthens for first time in six days. Dalian iron ore reverses early loss to gain for fourth day.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 10, 2017.

  • WTI Plunges To 7-Month Lows – Enters Bear Market As HY Bonds Crater

    WTI Crude has entered a bear market (down over 20% from its highs) amid concerns OPEC-led output cuts won’t succeed in rebalancing the market (and not helped by the fact that Libya is pumping the most crude in 4 years).
    For the first time since Nov 2016, WTI front-month traded with a $42 handle…
    Here are eight factors that are behind the current fall in oil prices according to Arab News:
    1. High exports from OPEC: Despite the reduction in production from oil producers, the level of exports is still high as many tanker-tracking data showed. Morgan Stanley in a report on June 8 said that tanker-tracking data showed that waterborne exports increased strongly in May across the world, up by 2.2 million bpd from April and 3.3 million bpd from May 2016.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.

  • Oil Plunges To November Lows On Sudden Volume Spike

    Oil dropped to the lowest in seven months, with both Brent and WTI sliding to prices not seen since November, following a burst of volume just after 6am, amid a revival in output from Libya and rising volumes of fuel held in floating storage, although today’s move was likely yet another hedge fund capitulating and liquidating long positions. As a reminder, Pierre Andurand was down 17.3% through end of May.
    Brent hit new year-to-date low at $45.85, after a one-minute burst of volume of a day-high 5,208 lots at 6:04am, taking out a 38.2% Fib support, after a one-minute spike in volume to a day-high 5,208 lots just after 6am. The move could spur a move toward the $44.66 measured support line according to Bloomberg technician Sejul Gokal.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.

  • S&P Downgrades Qatar To AA-, Credit Risk Spikes To 2017 Highs

    Citing expectations of notable slowing in economic growth andconcerns about fiscal and current account deficits widening, S&P has downgraded Qatar from AA to AA- as credit risk premia hit 2017 highs.
    Qatar credit risk is at 2017 highs (but remains well below Jan 2016 recent highs…
    Full Statement from S&P…
    On June 5, 2017, a group of governments including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen moved to cut diplomatic ties, as well as trade and transport links with Qatar. We believe this will exacerbate Qatar’s external vulnerabilities and could put pressure on economic growth and fiscal metrics. We are therefore lowering our long-term rating on Qatar to ‘AA-‘ from ‘AA’ and placing it on CreditWatch with negative implications. The negative CreditWatch encompasses numerous downside risks to the rating as a consequence of recent events, reflecting that we could lower the ratings if domestic political risks were to substantially increase or if government indebtedness increases materially quicker than we currently expect. We could also lower the ratings if our assessment of contingent liabilities from the banking system or the government’s related entities were to increase, or if Qatar’s external financing lines were withdrawn.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 7, 2017.

  • Oil Jumps as Saudis And Russians Agree to Extend OPEC Deal Into 2018

    What Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister said in March will not happen, has happened: in a joint statement, Khalid al-Falih and his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak said that OPEC and Russia have agreed to extend the oil production cut deal struck at the end of last year until March 2018.
    The news immediately sent prices higher, although the rise was capped by yet another weekly build in the number of active drilling rigs in the US, bringing the total up to 885 – an increase by 479 rigs over the past 12 months, along with production increases in Libya.
    At around US$49 a barrel for WTI and US$52 for Brent, the benchmarks are basically where they were at the time the initial OPEC deal was announced. In the first few weeks after the announcement, prices spiked to US$55-56 for Brent and US$54 for WTI, but that didn’t last long: there was too much doubt among investors and traders that the deal would succeed.
    In the beginning of the production cuts, the initial cause for worry was that some OPEC members would cheat as they have a history of doing so. As compliance continued growing at a steady, commendable rate, another problem came to the fore: US shale producers were expanding production in a no-nonsense manner. Crude oil inventories in the world’s top consumer were rising by millions of barrels every week and global stockpiles remained stubbornly above the five-year average.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 05/15/2017.

  • America’s financial war strategy

    America’s renewed desire to escalate military tensions is a front for America’s continual financial war, this time directed at North Korea, Syria and possibly Iran. This is likely to be the opinion of China’s strategic advisors. We analyse the geopolitics and economics behind America’s war strategy from China’s perspective, concluding that it is entering its final phase. China’s exit plan appears to be to tie the pricing of energy and then other major commodities to gold, returning to the pre-1971 status quo, when the dollar was just a settlement link between commodity prices and gold. Except this time, the dollar itself will be side-lined, so far as China is concerned, which will use the yuan instead for its empire, which will be far larger than that of the US in time, measured by GDP.
    The day President Trump assumed office, it appeared that at last there would be dtente with Russia, leading to America’s withdrawal from unwinnable conflicts and towards a new peaceful agreement between these long-term enemies. However, within the traditional presidential bedding-down period of one hundred days, Trump has gone from his electoral platform of disengagement from foreign ventures to overt aggression in multiple locations.
    Something major has changed his thinking. Trump has committed no less than five acts of foreign aggression in that short time, with a sixth pending. The first was a joint operation with Emirati commandos in Yemen, which backfired, leading to the death of a Navy SEAL. The second was the recent attack on a Syrian airfield, in response to an alleged poison gas attack. The third is the escalation of military threats against North Korea. The fourth is the bombing of a cave network in Eastern Afghanistan. And the fifth is the deployment of more troops to Northern Iraq and Eastern Syria to step up the fight against ISIS. The rhetoric is also being ramped up against America’s long-term bogeyman, Iran.
    The three theatres of war that offer the best prospects for further escalation are Syria, Korea, and Iran. They are in two regions where significant quantities of dollars are owned and invested, offering the potential for capital flight, which should be kept in mind, when reading this article.
    Trump is also seeking congressional approval for an increase in defence spending totalling $54bn, a massive increase which, to put it in perspective, compares with Russia’s total defence budget of $66bn.
    The default assumption is that American military power and weapons technology guarantees battlefield objectives will be achieved. This hasn’t usually been the case since the first Iraq invasion in 1990. Since then, any initial success has been more than outweighed by subsequent failures and unintended consequences. It is because of American-led operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria that Europe is flooded with refugees, bringing undercover terrorists with them. There can be little doubt that a dispassionate analyst would recommend America abandons military action, so there must be other reasons behind America’s war-mongering.
    China, itself a long-time strategic target for American aggression, is sure to be worried about the escalation of threats to North Korea, and with good reason. In terms of trade, South Korea is now an important trading partner, and for that reason, China will not want to see the situation on the Korean peninsula deteriorate. She will also not want America securing territory which abuts her border. Russia has a small border with North Korea as well and is likely to share that view. However, Russia’s trade is not so much with South Korea, but she is a major arms supplier to the North.

    This post was published at GoldMoney on APRIL 20, 2017.

  • Asian Metals Market Update: Apr-10-2017

    Trump is once again following his predecessors of war. The attack on Syria was uncalled for. There will be more attacks in Syria till Assad is removed. Later the Americans will convert Syria into another Libya, loot its wealth, loot its people, sell second hand outdated American weapons (just like Iraq) and convert it into another Iraq, Libya or Afghanistan. The hidden agenda is to capture Syria’s massive crude oil and natural gas reserves. Once you control energy prices you rule the world.
    The side effects of such attacks are in the form of migrant crises in Europe and America. The common people of Europe also suffer due to the migrant crisis in the form of terror attacks by radical religious groups. Freedom of expression is curbed. Additional taxes are imposed to support migrants. National resources are affected as migrants also consume these resources which is followed by significant increase in the cost of living. Demographic changes in Europe caused by migrants will be gold positive in the medium term as well as long term.
    Trump was unable to get any of his policy changed agreed to within his own party. It seems American are war loving people. Approval ratings increase, masses are focused on war and all policies are passed by the legislators with ease.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 10 April 2017.

  • RBOB Tumbles After Lower Than Expected Gasoline Draw

    After an early spike on Libya production fears and OPEC production cut extension hope, WTI and RBOB faded all day on dollar strength ahead of the API data. The trend of builds in Crude and draws in gasoline and distillates continued but the gasoline draw was notably less than expected and has sparked selling in RBOB.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Mar 28, 2017.


    When a magician is showing you a magic trick with his or her right hand, you should always watch what the left hand is doing. When it comes to times of war, one should always be skeptical of a government beating the war drum against another government or entity. Ask yourself: Why now, why this entity, and what is at stake?
    A good example of this can be seen in Africa. Since 1998, close to 6 million people have been killed in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to fighting over mineral resources, many of which are used in cell phones around the world. This barely receives a mention in the corporate news. In contrast, we were told that Libya, the country with the highest standard of living out of any country in Africa, needed to be bombed in a ‘humanitarian intervention’ to prevent a massacre that may or may not have ever occurred. Although there are clear differences in the style of conflict that besieged the two nations, the fact is the U. S government and media prioritized one over the other based on geopolitical concerns.
    For example, Hillary Clinton’s leaked emails confirmed the notion that Libya was destroyed in 2011 not out of humanitarian efforts, but in part because Libya’s former leader Muammar Gaddafi intended to tie Libya’s oil supply with its gold supply and create a unified African currency that would challenge the financial markets’ current power structure.
    The same can be said of Syria. As AlterNet notes, the media has ignored a number of leaked U. S. government documents and audio content regarding the Syrian conflict. Ian Sinclair reports:

    This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on FEBRUARY 20, 2017.

  • Trump Readies a New Pentagon Spending Binge

    Chinese Billionaire Jack Ma has some advice for the US government: If the US is so concerned about industry and jobs, it should try starting fewer wars and spending trillions of dollars on them. Ma spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, saying:
    ‘In the past 30 years, America has had 13 wars at a cost of US$14.2 trillion.’ So what if the US ‘had spent part of that money on building up their infrastructure, helping white-collar and blue-collar workers? You’re supposed to spend money on your own people. It’s not that other countries steal American jobs. It is your strategy – that you did not distribute the money in a proper way.’
    Ma is taking a fairly typical left-center line here, and he seems to think – mistakenly – that government spending can produce economic growth.
    Nevertheless, Ma has a point.
    There are bad ways to spend government money, and there are worse ways to spend it. In recent decades, the US has been largely committed to spending trillions on those worse ways. In terms of foreign policy, the US has spent trillions on overthrowing secularist governments in Iraq and Libya to clear the way for al-Qaeda aligned terrorists. The US has been trying to do the same in Syria.

    This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on January 25, 2017.

  • European Commission Threatens Widespread Asset Confiscation

    The ‘war on terror’ continues…
    The US and the North Atlantic Terrorist Organization (NATO) attacked Libya and Syria and began transporting Muslims to Europe as a means of destabilization. They have also conducted numerous other false flag attacks, such as Charlie Hebdo, by which to further confuse and imprison the local population.
    The most recent was the so called ‘terror attack’ which occurred several days before Christmas in Berlin, Germany. A truck was deliberately driven into a crowded market killing 12 people and leaving 48 injured.
    Now it reaches a logical conclusion with cash and gold being confiscated in the name of making people ‘safe’.
    There is always an ulterior motive which becomes clearly apparent after such ‘terror’ events.

    This post was published at Dollar Vigilante on December 28, 2016.

  • Goldman Says OPEC Deal May Add Up To $10 To Price Of Oil, Two Days After Cutting Oil Price Target By $7

    Goldman has done it again. Two days after the central banker-incubator cut its year end price target from $50 to $43, admitting the previously anticipated rebalancing will take longer to achieve, and now expects “a global surplus of 400 kb/d in 4Q16 vs. a 300 kb/d draw previously”, and followed the next day by a report in which it said that not even an OPEC deal would stop oil going lower, overnight the very same analyst, just 24 hours after saying the opposite, Goldman’s Damien Courvalin said that the OPEC agreement will “likely provide support to prices, at least in the short term” and added that the announced production quota should boost the price of oil by $7/bbl – $10/bbl. Again: this is two days after cutting the 2016 price target by $7, and one day after saying an OPEC deal would have no impact.
    Still, trying to avoid looking like a total flip-flopper, Courvalin adds that “at the historical average 4.8% production beat relative to quotas, this target would be 33.7 mb/d, above current production levels. It has historically taken a fall in oil demand to ensure quota compliance, as in that case, production is forced lower by a decline in refinery intake around the world. This is not the case today with resilient demand growth” and said that “we maintain our year-end $43/bbl and 2017 $53/bbl WTI price forecasts given: (1) uncertainty on this proposal until it is ratified, (2) likely quota beats if ratified, (3) potential for production above our cautious forecasts in areas of disruptions (as was the case today in Libya and KRG), and (4) our conservative supply forecasts outside of OPEC for next year.”
    Then again, the only thing that will be stuck in algos’ random access memory is that Goldman now expects oil to rebound by up to $10/bbl, which may explain why oil is now rolling over.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 29, 2016.

  • Global Stocks, US Futures Rebound As Oil Rises, Dollar Drops

    Stocks across the board, and US equity futures are broadly in the green this morning as markets shrug off the terror-related events in the NYC area over the weekend. There wasn’t a single positive ‘reason’ for the green price action but the bond ‘tantrum’ that caught the attention of stocks beginning back on 9/8 is increasingly fading and investors are hopeful this week’s central bank decisions (BOJ and FOMC both on Wed 9/21) will further ease yield anxieties.
    One of the catalysts for the rebound in stocks was today’s rise in oil, which rebounded from Friday’s lows as renewed clashes halted what would be the first crude shipment from one of Libya’s largest export terminals since 2014. The tanker Seadelta suspended loading after fighting started Sunday between local Petroleum Facilities Guard units and forces loyal to eastern-based military commander Khalifa Haftar. Brent added 1.3 percent to $46.36. OPEC may call an extraordinary meeting if ministers reach consensus at an informal gathering next week, Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said, according to Algerian Press Service.
    ‘Sentiment is being boosted by a rebound in oil,’ Vasu Menon, VP at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore told Bloomberg. ‘Investors are also hoping the BOJ will do something more dramatic though I don’t think that’s going to make a lot of difference. With inflation numbers picking up a little bit in the U. S., the market will start worrying about the Fed again at some stage down the road.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 19, 2016.

  • Guest Post: The Human Stain

    I shuddered when it was announced that Stanley Fisher was elevated to co-Chairman of the Fed. He is a wholly-corrupt representative of the neo-conservative movement that has enveloped this country. People who consider themselves ‘liberals’ and Democrats are unwittingly supporting a viper’s nest of necon totalitarianists. Hillary Clinton was the mad-bomber who helped orchestrate the Obama Government’s steamrolling over Libya and the Ukraine and the attempted steamrolling over Syria. When HRC is in the Oval Office, Stanley Fisher will be elevated to King of the Fed and it’s lights out for the middle class.
    One of subscribers has written an excellent of summary of the one aspect of the political and economic drive toward totalitarianism in this country. Notice how he omits Bernanke and Yellen. They were mere dishrags for the people behind the scenes who are actively attempting to orchestrate the future of this country (Soros, Gates, Buffet, Rothschilds, Kissinger, etc):
    I agree with you, the world’s move away from the fraudulent dollar is bigger than interest rates. My belief is that they are trying to buy two months. All they care about is winning the election, because they can loot like never before … literally trillions of dollars … as the sick, withdrawn witch is under constant medical care within the Imperial Bedroom at the WH.

    This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on August 24, 2016.

  • Morgan Stanley Says The Oil Squeeze Will End On August 17: Here’s Why

    Following his bearish note last week, Morgan Stanley’s oil analyst Adam Longson is out with a new report, in which he accurately explains that the recent oil-price jump is driven by traders covering bearish bets, even as market fundamentals are seen remaining weak in coming months.
    According to Longson, a ‘sizeable’ amount of Sept. WTI put positions at $40, $45 recently came into or near the money, leading to spike in hedging by traders to cover their exposure. However, the good news for oil bears is that the effect of this action will fade once option expires Aug. 17. As we have pointed out previously, the recent comments from OPEC, and IEA helped reverse bearishness and also unleash the recent short squeeze which led to the biggest weekly jump in oil in 4 months.
    He then notes that he ‘would not be surprised to see tank top fears return in 1Q17′ as he sees rising U. S. crude inventories in coming months.
    He list other bearish factors for oil, which include modest implied draw in global oil stockpiles in 3Q, as well as a lack of meaningful cuts to refinery run rates. A record OPEC production, albeit seasonal, with potentially higher Libyan exports and Iraqi output growth into 2017 add to bearish indicators.
    He notes that the draw in U. S. gasoline inventory seen deceptive as higher net exports – lower imports and more overseas shipments – could be ‘masking the problem.’ He concludes that if global product markets remain oversupplied, ability to export on larger scale may be limited and run cuts unavoidable.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 15, 2016.