This Flu Season Begins the Risk of a Pandemic 2018-2019

A possible new pandemic is forming from a deadly strain of flu emerging from Australia and will be headed to the UK as the normal flow of travels would take it. Britain will perhaps be hit with the worst flu season in 50 years. Already, there are about 170,000 cases of flu reported in Australia which is more than double this season than usual.
The strain of flu is called H3N2, and the number of flu deaths in Australia over winter has not yet been released, but it’s thought to be the worst in many years. The last major flu epidemic was in the 1968 pandemic which began in Hong Kong killing more than a million people worldwide. Flu pandemics have been linked to fluctuations in climate, and new research connects the world’s four most recent pandemics to the cyclical cooling of the Pacific Ocean near the equator.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Dec 29, 2017.

Slow Emotion Replay

I just got back from New York, and I have to say, it was a bit of an emotional trip. Without getting into too much detail, some of my meetings dredged up old feelings that I’ve been carrying around for the last few days.
First, I want to express annoyance about these feelings. They’re not productive; they don’t help me do my job. They’re a distraction. I wish I didn’t have them.
There are a lot of times in my life where I wish I was just a computer and didn’t have feelings. I’d probably be a much better trader.
And that’s what this piece is about. We’re all human beings, trading and investing, trying to make money, but these things called emotions get in the way.
Now, most trading experts will tell you to get rid of your emotions altogether, to get as close to being a computer as possible.
Let’s be realistic – you can’t get rid of your emotions. The best you can do is to try to use them for your advantage.
Voluble
I am probably more emotional than most people. I have a tendency to get really happy or really angry or really sad (more here). I got a stomach flu a few months ago and spent a day at home on the couch, watching 6 hours of My Cat From Hell reruns (and crying).
I have spent most of the last ten years trying to be as dispassionate as possible – but emotions still sneak out sometimes.
So if I can control my emotions investing, you can, too. One of the first things to work on is your response to making or losing money.

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on JUNE 8, 2017.

U.S. Stock Market and Gold, Post Tomahawks and MOAB

It happens when inflammatory events (usually political, terror or war related, but also including things like Ebola, Bird Flu and the like) crop up; stocks go down and hysteria starts to build. The mainstream media jump aboard and next thing you know you’ve got people heading for the exits… right into the next bottom. In the case of the current corrective consolidation, a disappointment in the Trump administration’s Healthcare follies rolled right into the war-like events in Syria and Afghanistan. Presto! A much needed correction of the over-bullishness was on.
Going the other way is gold, which never fails to get the terror, war or pestilence bid du jour. Sure, the media may pump a bit here, but the real pumping comes from within the gold’community’ (the term, coined I believe by James Sinclair, is a dead giveaway to group-think) itself. The community always stands ready to explain to the greater public why it has been right all along; and headline-making events are held up as proof.
Now, back in a little place we like to call Reality, the stock market is still in the state it has been in since last year when we got a bullish moving average signal with the weekly EMA 20 crossing above the EMA 50. My little speculation about a Left Shoulder to a potentially bearish H&S is just that, speculation at this time. The moving averages and the major trend say so. As a side note, notice that the AAII (Individual Investors) have been MIA. They have been among the smarter of the dumb money for years now; but we might wonder if the final top will come when AAII finally takes the bait.
Our ‘amateur cyclist’ chart (for entertainment purposes only, folks) has instructed that a correction of some kind has been possible or even probable in and around here, according to the 12 month cycle. It’s a monthly chart, so expect movements not to present themselves in the same time frames that our always-engaged human brains fire off thoughts and opinions.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 21 April 2017.

While media obsesses over Pu**ygate, US debt soars to $19.7 trillion

First of all, I want to say thanks for all the well-wishes. I’ve been flat on my back for the past several days with a particularly nasty case of the flu that I likely contracted en route to Los Angeles last week. Picking up the occasional bug is one of the hazards of spending a lot of time on planes… plus I have some special luck with airlines for always being seated next to a guy who sneezes with the explosiveness and ferocity of a biological terrorist. But, now that I’m better and getting brought up to speed, one of the things that caught my attention this morning was that the US government’s debt level has soared to just a hair under $19.7 trillion. To give it some context, that’s up over $120 billion in just six business days. It’s almost as if Barack Obama is intentionally and desperately trying to breach the $20 trillion mark before he leaves office in January. Of course, this hasn’t been reported anywhere because the media is too busy pretending to be shocked that Donald Trump is a womanizer.

This post was published at Sovereign Man on October 13, 2016.

While media obsesses over Pussygate, US debt soars to $19.7 trillion

First of all, I want to say thanks for all the well-wishes. I’ve been flat on my back for the past several days with a particularly nasty case of the flu that I likely contracted en route to Los Angeles last week. Picking up the occasional bug is one of the hazards of spending a lot of time on planes… plus I have some special luck with airlines for always being seated next to a guy who sneezes with the explosiveness and ferocity of a biological terrorist. But, now that I’m better and getting brought up to speed, one of the things that caught my attention this morning was that the US government’s debt level has soared to just a hair under $19.7 trillion. To give it some context, that’s up over $120 billion in just six business days. It’s almost as if Barack Obama is intentionally and desperately trying to breach the $20 trillion mark before he leaves office in January. Of course, this hasn’t been reported anywhere because the media is too busy pretending to be shocked that Donald Trump is a womanizer.

This post was published at Sovereign Man on October 13, 2016.

Bond Markets Hit Another ‘Ukrainian Chicken Moment’

Two European companies — French drug maker Sanofi and German household products maker Henkel — last week became the first firms to persuade investors to pay them to borrow euros. By selling bonds yielding minus 0.05 of a percentage point, they may well have signaled the bond market’s peak, delivering this decade’s equivalent of the “Ukrainian Chicken Farm Moment.”
That phrase refers to the 2006 sale of $250 million of bonds by Myronivsky Hliboproduct which, according to its description on the Bloomberg terminal, is “a vertically integrated producer of poultry products in Ukraine.” Few investors had ever heard of the Ukrainian chicken breeder, but with an interest rate north of 10 percent, buyers were clamoring for the MHP bonds. Bill Blain, currently at Mint Partners in London, was one of the bankers who brought the deal to market. He recalls the bidding frenzy:
“It was massively oversubscribed. A few weeks later, bird flu broke out in Hong Kong. The chicken farm was uninsured. The market immediately discounted the notes and the price crashed 30 percent or more. That moment of supreme belief when anything is possible in the new issues market will always be remembered as “The Ukrainian Chicken Farm Moment.“”
An investor who buys some of Sanofi’s 1 billion ($1.12 billion) of bonds and holds them until they’re repaid in three years is guaranteed to lose money.

This post was published at bloomberg

Bitcoin, Bullion and Brexit: Jeff Berwick on the CryptoShow

The following video was published by TheDollarVigilante on Jun 29, 2016
The glaring differences between the Mexican and Canadian healthcare systems, a severe reaction to the flu shot, the implications of the Brexit vote, a 250 billion pound bailout for UK banks, George Soros and his telling investments, David Cameron and elite manipulations, multiple succession movements in the E. U., system wide economic collapse, Brexit a handy excuse to point the blame for economic collapse, SDR rollout, global currency, new free market system based on Bitcoin, avoiding the upcoming tyranny, the Bilderberg meeting and the nervous elite losing control, gold silver and Bitcoin do well as predicted, sticking with Bitcoin, the upcoming halving event, Shemitah cycles prove eerily correct, this year is the jubilee year, real possibility of war around Syria. Anarcapulco 2017!

Population Deflation: Spain Joins Germany with Negative Net Birth Rate; Italy on Threshold; Who’s to Blame?

On the demographic front things are not looking so good for the eurozone.
With declining birth rates and the aging of the population, Mario Draghi will struggle to produce inflation in a population deflationary environment.
Spanish Birthrate Plummets
Please consider Spain Dying as its Birthrate Plummets.
Spain’s population will fall by more than five million over the next 50 years, according to a forecast that raises the prospect of even more ‘ghost villages’ around the country.
In the first six months of this year, Spain recorded 225,924 deaths and 206,656 births, the national statistics institute reported. The country has not seen deaths exceed births consistently since the civil war, from 1936 to 1939, and before that the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on Monday, December 07, 2015.

Get Rich Quick – The Golden Fleece

The Golden Fleece – or 3 Ways to ‘Get-Rich-Quick’
Buy a few congresspersons, or preferably a president, and obtain a ‘no-bid’ contract to provide something to the government at a huge markup. It could be Tamiflu vaccine, security services in Iraq, TSA scanners, private prisons or so many other schemes. The profits can be enormous to the point that payoffs to politicians are insignificant. This works especially well if you are a member of the financial elite. Let the Federal Reserve ship several billion dollars in shrink-wrapped one hundred dollars bills to you, and exempt yourself from accountability. This worked in Iraq – link here. Saving the best for last … Convert paper currencies into gold. One scenario is: Setup: Buy congresspersons, a president, prime minister, king or war lord. Create a central bank with an exclusive right to print paper currencies. Loan newly printed currency to the government and collect the interest.

This post was published at Deviant Investor on September 14, 2015.

The Golden Fleece

Buy a few congresspersons, or preferably a president, and obtain a ‘no-bid’ contract to provide something to the government at a huge markup. It could be Tamiflu vaccine, security services in Iraq, TSA scanners, private prisons or so many other schemes. The profits can be enormous to the point that payoffs to politicians are insignificant. This works especially well if you are a member of the financial elite. Let the Federal Reserve ship several billion dollars in shrink-wrapped one hundred dollars bills to you, and exempt yourself from accountability. This worked in Iraq – link here. Saving the best for last … Convert paper currencies into gold. One scenario is: Setup: Buy congresspersons, a president, prime minister, king or war lord. Create a central bank with an exclusive right to print paper currencies. Loan newly printed currency to the government and collect the interest. The Business: Loan newly printed paper currencies (pounds, dollars, euros etc.) to governments and businesses, but demand the interest be paid to the bank in gold. Voila! Paper has been created and converted to gold.

This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on September 8, 2015.

Hidden $Trillion QE Monthly Volume

The massive Quantitative Easing (QE) abuse by the USFed and steeped lies are centered on its volume, which in reality is an order of magnitude higher than admitted. The recent usage of certain REPO windows has been effective to disguise huge volume of bond purchases. The entire bond system is irreparably corrupted. The REPO window hides QE extras with naked bond shorting linked to a $1 trillion extravaganza that receives almost no publicity. While the public, and even more financial market participants, focus on the Dow Jones stock index, the Treasury Bond yield, the crude oil price, and very little else, they overlook the Reverse REPO window and the related Failures to Deliver data for USTreasury Bonds. The two work like a hand and glove.
The abuse is laced all through the USTreasury Bond market. These big banks never pay for their crimes, as they repeat them in other forms. Since JPM is the official USFed market agent, no consequence in criminal charges. It is given praise and more bond redemptions. When caught, the Wall Street and London Centre banks pay fines and penalties, sometimes even meager restitution, but they chalk it all up to a business expense. Criminal fraud is merely a cost of doing business in New York and London. The public is none the wiser. The American public by and large are in need of remedial education, lately showing no knowledge of money, capital, banking reserves concepts, the USDollar status, or economic meters. The greatest shortcoming is knowledge of how to grow an economy, since tin cupping with handouts aint the answer. The answer is found in business investment, something our Marxist leaders oppose unless they have personal investments involved. See Chertoff and airport devices. See Rumsfeld and Tamiflu programs. See Obama and Solari investments.
REVERSE REPO ABUSE
Focus on the Reverse REPO, which is highly innovative from two angles. Normally the USFed requires collateral to be placed at the REPO window, from companies seeking cash infusions on a temporary basis. Sometimes the USFed announces a ripe volume of Reverse REPO infusions into the system. They occasionally attract bad attention, but it wanes with the next fiction on strong markets and recovering economies, or even debate among fools who anticipate official rate hikes. The USFed uses the Reverse REPO to hide some of its QE volume. It is concealed QE volume, part of the biggest lie in US financial history since the USFed has generated multiple $trillions in hidden channel support, massive gushers. The key is no collateral placed on the opposite side of the window. It is neither stimulus nor minor in volume. The central bank helm is managing a gigantic volume, hidden in numerous ways. The John Q Public is none the wiser, reading the controlled fiction in financial press publications, about wondrous stimulus. In reality, QE kills capital and assures an economic collapse. It is happening before our eyes.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 31 August 2015.

INFLATION – Multi-Dimensional Confusion

The old idea that inflation is created by an increase in money supply has distorted the minds of many people. Inflation is caused by numerous factors for it is not a one-dimensional aspect. For example, the current bird flu has rendered half of the egg production to be worthless, which has sent egg prices soaring. This has nothing to do with the quantity of money. So obviously, a decline in the supply of some service or commodity can also lead to rising prices.
Then there can be cost-push inflation as we saw during the 1970s due to OPEC. The first OPEC price shock was October 1973 from where we should see the next low in 2016 (43 years later). The sudden rise in oil sent a shockwave through the economy, driving up prices because the entire economy had to readjust to higher energy. This was not the result of an increase in demand nor an increase in the money supply.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on August 10, 2015.

Service ISM Misses As Bird Flu Scapegoated; Employment Index Tumbles

15 minutes ago we had a miss from the Markit Service PMI, and now it is the turn of the ISM’s non-manufacturing survey to also miss, rising from 55.7 to 56.0, below the 56.4 consensus increase. The reason: trade (both – imports and exports – disappointed with Imports dropping into outright contraction down from 53.5 to 48.0, while employment dipped from 55.3 to 52.7.
More from Anthony Nieves, chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The NMI registered 56 percent in June, 0.3 percentage point higher than the May reading of 55.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 61.5 percent, which is 2 percentage points higher than the May reading of 59.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 71st consecutive month at a faster rate. The New Orders Index registered 58.3 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the reading of 57.9 percent registered in May. The Employment Index decreased 2.6 percentage points to 52.7 percent from the May reading of 55.3 percent and indicates growth for the 16th consecutive month. The Prices Index decreased 2.9 percentage points from the May reading of 55.9 percent to 53 percent, indicating prices increased in June for the fourth consecutive month. According to the NMI, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June. The majority of respondents’ comments are positive about business conditions and the economy.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 07/06/2015.

Bird Flu Has Already Killed More Than 20 MILLION Turkeys And Chickens In The United States

Are you prepared to go without turkey this Thanksgiving? Yes, it might actually get that bad. So far, the worst outbreak of bird flu in U. S. history has claimed the lives of more than 20 million turkeys and chickens, and the pandemic continues to rage wildly out of control. Once one bird becomes infected, this particular strain of the virus is so virulent that it can virtually wipe out an entire flock in just a matter of days. At this point, scientists think that this virus is being spread by wild birds, but they have no idea how it is getting inside barns and other enclosed facilities so easily. Considering how important turkey, chicken and eggs are to our food supply, it is quite alarming that scientists don’t really understand what is going on. If this bird flu outbreak is not brought under control, how many birds will eventually die? Right now, it is already in the tens of millions. Could the total eventually reach into the hundreds of millions?
Minnesota is the top producer of turkeys in the United States, and Iowa is the top producer of eggs, and that is why it is so alarming that both of these states are right at the heart of this current outbreak…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on May 6th, 2015.

Occam’s Oil

As my colleague Joe Calhoun continually reminds us, everything that happens has happened before. The ongoing ‘struggle’ to define what is driving crude oil prices lower is perhaps another instance of a past ‘cycle’ being reborn. With oil prices now heading much closer to the $40’s than the $60’s, consistent commentary is increasingly swept aside.
The move in crude these past six months is now nothing short of astounding. At about $52 current prices (which will probably move in either direction significantly by the time this is posted) the collapse from the recent peak now equals only past, significant global recessions under the oil regime that began in the mid-1980’s.
That comparison includes the 1997-98 Asian ‘flu’ episode where the mainstream convention was also totally convinced of only massive oversupply defining price action. This was incorporated even into the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) estimates of oil inventories, as described shortly thereafter by certain incredulous oil observers:
Fourteen months have passed since the International Energy Agency’s oil analysts alerted the world to the mystery of the ‘missing barrels.’ This new term referred to the discrepancy between the ‘well-documented’ imbalance between supply and demand for oil and the lack of any stock build in the industrialized world’s petroleum supply. In April last year [1998], the IEA’s ‘missing supply’ totaled only 170 million barrels. At the time, the IEA described this odd situation an ‘arithmetic mystery,’ but assured us that these missing barrels would soon show up. As months passed by, stock revisions occasionally too place, but often in the wrong direction. Rather than shrink, the amount of ‘missing barrels’ grew by epochal proportions.
By the publication date of the IEA’s April 1999 Oil Market Report, the unaccounted for crude needed to confirm the IEA’s extremely bearish views of massive oversupply of oil throughout 1997 and 1998 ballooned to an astonishing 647 million barrels of oil. Two months later, the IEA’s June report still presumes that 510 million barrels of oil is still ‘missing’, and the IEA has officially opined that it all resides in the un-traded storage facilities in the developing countries of the world.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 01/01/2015.